Seattle sports thread

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

I was in the marching band does that count? On the field at the ‘98 Rose Bowl vs. Michigan.

Yeah, this is where that assy “ohhh you plaaaaay for them” garbage goes stale. Yeah dude there are people here who identify with these schools because we went to them (although as a UW Husky grad… okay, let’s face it, you all need all the love you can get right now and this is going to be a bad year for my Alma mater).

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Yeah, this is where that assy “ohhh you plaaaaay for them” garbage goes stale. Yeah dude there are people here who identify with these schools because we went to them (although as a UW Husky grad… okay, let’s face it, you all need all the love you can get right now and this is going to be a bad year for my Alma mater).

It will be interesting how many big 10 titles Washington gets having to go against MIchigan, Ohio St and Penn St every year.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

It will be interesting how many big 10 titles Washington gets having to go against MIchigan, Ohio St and Penn St every year.

At some point they’ll have to rename it the Big 18 or whatever but yeah. I’m holding out hope that the embers of the Pac-12 can attract the west coast teams again but it has only its own mismanagement to blame and that probably won’t happen…

[Amazin69]

With the MLB regular season now concluded, I want to congratulate the Mariners on a winning season, and give my sympathies to M's fans about their team's failure to reach the post-season.

I am certainly not trying to pile on, but I do want to note that by having squandered that 10-game lead, the 2024 Mariners now qualify for a list I compiled after the failure of the 2022 Mets to hold an even-larger lead. (The original version is in the Mets thread.)

With deepest sympathies…

Largest leads ever blown


(For pennant or division; whether the team achieved a wild-card is irrelevant for this list. Lead expressed relative to the team that eventually caught the chokers; other teams may been closer at one point, but proved irrelevant to the final result):

1914 NY Giants, led by 15 games on July 5. (They were 40-24, the Boston Braves were 26-40. The Braves were last in an 8-team NL; the nearest team to the lead was the Cubs, 3.5 games back.) The Giants went 44-46 the rest of the year, while the Braves went 68-19, winning by 10.5 games. The 25.5 games gained is a record, AFAIK.

Some attributed the success of the "Miracle" Braves to the Native American luck symbol they wore on their caps on opening day. But the Swastika (which is not the Nazi Hakenkreuz ["hooked cross"] although it is now soiled by the imitation) hardly worked its magic overnight: the Braves started 3-16, then stabilized with a 23-24 stretch before having that incredible finishing kick.

1978 Red Sox, led by 14 games on July 19. (Sox were 62-28, Yanks 48-42. Yankees were fourth, Boston led Milwaukee by 9 games.) Boston went 37-35, Yankees went 51-21. Yanks won 1-game playoff.

1951 Dodgers, led by 13 games on August 11. (70-35, Giants were 59-50.). They went 26-23 while the Giants were going 37-8, and lost a 3-game playoff.

2012 Rangers, led by 13 games on June 30. (They were 50-29, Oakland was 37-42. The Angels were 6.5 behind Texas.) Rangers muddle their way to a 43-40 record for the second half, while the Athletics catch fire, go 57-26 and win by one game. Both teams flop in the post-season.

1995 Angels, led by 11.5 games on August 16. (They were 64-39, Seattle was 52-50. The Rangers were 10.5 behind California.). Complete flop, going 14-27 while the Mariners went 26-16 to close the 144 game season, and then won a 1-game playoff.

1964 Phillies, led by 11 games on August 23. (They were 76-47, St. Louis was 65-58. The Cardinals were in 4th place; the Reds and Giants were 7.5 games behind Philadelphia.) The "Philly Phold" saw them go 16-23 down the stretch, while the Cards closed with a 28-11 kick.

2022 Mets, led by 10.5 on June 1st. (Mets were 35-17, Braves were 24-27.) Mets went 66-44 the rest of the way, while Atlanta went 77-34 and won the division on…a tiebreak, Lorde help us.

1942 Dodgers, led by 10 games on August 5. (Dodgers were 74-30, Cardinals were 63-39.) Dodgers go 30-20, Cards go 43-9, win by 2.

1969 Cubs, led by 10 games on August 14. (Chicago was 74-43, Mets were 62-51, in third place [Cardinals were 9 back]). The Cubs tanked completely, going 18-27 (worse than the Pirates and Cards, and 4 NL West teams, too) while the Mets went 38-11, winning by 8 games. Bill "Froggy" Hands went 4-3 in September, and Ferguson Jenkins was 3-4; the rest of the team was 1-10.

And now…

2024 Mariners, led by 10 games on June 18. (Ms were 44-31; both Texas teams were 33-40.) Mariners muck home at 41-46, while the Asstros go 55-33, winning by 3.5 games.

Welcome to the club, guys. Sorry to see you.

(List revised to add the Phillies, whom I just realized were a likely candidate. I may have missed others, as well.)

[monkeyman576]

Yep, the Mariners need to stop blaming T Mobile Park for their hitting problems and find a way to hit.

[Syd Thrift]

I think it’s mostly the fans who wind up blaming the Safe. Note that the hitting picked up quite a bit from August 1 onward and by wRC+ was actually above average (I think 103?) by season’s end. They also underplayed their run differential by 4 wins.

People hate to hear this but perhaps the biggest factor in the Ms missing the playoffs this year was bad luck. It was also sooooo close that a lot of individual things could have tipped the scales: not trying to make the Mitches work for much of the season, better performance from the middle infielders, cutting Ty France loose after last year, better performance from the pitching down the stretch, signing one decent free agent instead of a lot of kind of crappy ones… but had the Ms performed to their Pythagorean Record, they’d have won 89 games and made the playoffs, perhaps as a division champion.

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I think it’s mostly the fans who wind up blaming the Safe. Note that the hitting picked up quite a bit from August 1 onward and by wRC+ was actually above average (I think 103?) by season’s end. They also underplayed their run differential by 4 wins.

People hate to hear this but perhaps the biggest factor in the Ms missing the playoffs this year was bad luck. It was also sooooo close that a lot of individual things could have tipped the scales: not trying to make the Mitches work for much of the season, better performance from the middle infielders, cutting Ty France loose after last year, better performance from the pitching down the stretch, signing one decent free agent instead of a lot of kind of crappy ones… but had the Ms performed to their Pythagorean Record, they’d have won 89 games and made the playoffs, perhaps as a division champion.

Yeah, people always blame bad luck when things don't go their way, but they don't do the opposite when things do go their way.

The fact is with the pitching staff the M's had they should have won 96 to 98 games if they had half a decent offense.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Yeah, people always blame bad luck when things don't go their way, but they don't do the opposite when things do go their way.

The fact is with the pitching staff the M's had they should have won 96 to 98 games if they had half a decent offense.

They did wind up with a “halfway decent offense”. Adjusting for the park, the Ms finished 7th in the AL in wRC+. That still would have been very low for a playoff team but the offense did pick up quite a bit after Servais got canned. Unfortunately around a month before then the pitching started to look very average and was no longer bailing the team out of close games the way it had in the first half. The bullpen in particular was kind of bad, but like George Kirby in particular had his wRC+ jump by 50 points which accompanied an ERA jump of 70 from the first half to the second.

This is part of the issue with the park, although I think the front office is a lot less fooled by it than the fans are. The hitting will forever look worse than it really is and the pitching will look better. The (weird) story of this team was great pitching and mediocre hitting into July, a month stretch of truly awful hitting and average pitching, and then after Dan Wilson took over (and they benched the Mitches and cut France), the hitting was fine and the pitching was still what it was.

Again, that does add up to what should have been around 89 wins. That is in fact what the stats say. Teams are 4 wins off all the time and I’d have preferred that the team, for example, used the money they dumped in the Geno and Robbie Ray trades to bring back a bigger bat than the ghost of Mitch Haniger - maybe that would have pushed them to say a 91 win plateau where underperforming by 4 would still have gotten them into the playoffs - but that’s literally what the stats say.

I want to be clear too that I’m not absolving the front office or ownership by looking at Pythag records: if anything, Stanton being cheap last offseason hurt us even more than if the team was, say, an 82 win team that lucked its way into 85. The Ms had a shot at the postseason and ultimately one huge reason why they didn’t get there is cheap ownership.

[monkeyman576]

WSU losing to Boise St is looking better. Maybe there's a chance we both get in the playoffs?

[Mariner and Giants Fan]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

WSU losing to Boise St is looking better. Maybe there's a chance we both get in the playoffs?

I hope you are right, but I am thinking neither is strong enough to make it.
Remember when you said the Mariners would win 95 games...

[monkeyman576]

Nobody seems to want to win the NFC West, so maybe the Seahawks can win by default?

Nobody seems great in the NFC at large either, besides the Lions. Seahawks are probably a long shot for the super bowl but stranger things have happened..

Obviously the Mariners are probably going to concentrate on offense in the offseason, it will be interesting to see who they go for, probably infielders are going to be their priority. Christain Walker or Paul Goldschmidt(or both) would be a dream signing. I'd also like to see them try for Glyber Torres. Cole Young and Lazaro Montes could help from the farm system

[Mariner and Giants Fan]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Nobody seems to want to win the NFC West, so maybe the Seahawks can win by default?

Nobody seems great in the NFC at large either, besides the Lions. Seahawks are probably a long shot for the super bowl but stranger things have happened..

Obviously the Mariners are probably going to concentrate on offense in the offseason, it will be interesting to see who they go for, probably infielders are going to be their priority. Christain Walker or Paul Goldschmidt(or both) would be a dream signing. I'd also like to see them try for Glyber Torres. Cole Young and Lazaro Montes could help from the farm system

What about Kim from San Diego? I think you are funny when you say the Hawks have any shot at the Super Bowl. I will be pleased if they actually win the division which is likely the only way anyone from the NFC West will be in the playoffs this year.

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by Mariner and Giants Fan

What about Kim from San Diego? I think you are funny when you say the Hawks have any shot at the Super Bowl. I will be pleased if they actually win the division which is likely the only way anyone from the NFC West will be in the playoffs this year.

You know someone does HAVE to win the division right? Having no division winner is not a possibility. The Seahawks have as good a chance as anyone.

Like I said, the chances of a deep playoff run are remote, but it's happened before. The 2008 Arizona Cardinals finished 9-7 and made the super bowl, for example. And the Lions do not have a history of winning the big playoff games.

[Mariner and Giants Fan]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

You know someone does HAVE to win the division right? Having no division winner is not a possibility. The Seahawks have as good a chance as anyone.

Like I said, the chances of a deep playoff run are remote, but it's happened before. The 2008 Arizona Cardinals finished 9-7 and made the super bowl, for example. And the Lions do not have a history of winning the big playoff games.

That Cards team had a Super Bowl winning quarterback leading them. Big difference. But I now believe that they have a chance to win this weak division. I did not believe that 2 weeks ago.

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by Mariner and Giants Fan

That Cards team had a Super Bowl winning quarterback leading them. Big difference. But I now believe that they have a chance to win this weak division. I did not believe that 2 weeks ago.

Maybe, but I'll take the '24 Seahawks defense over the '08 Cardinals defense any day.

[Mariner and Giants Fan]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Maybe, but I'll take the '24 Seahawks defense over the '08 Cardinals defense any day.

Recency Bias my friend. 4-weeks ago this defense of the Hawks was being run all over. Hopefully the change is permanent. Next week this season would be undone if they lose to the hapless Jets. It is their last "gimme" on the schedule.

[monkeyman576]

Well, the playoffs do occur at the end of the season and not the beginning, so I don't really care what happened in September.

[CONN CHRIS]

Still great to see Geno Smith doing well out there. Out here on the East Coast I often hear fans complain that the Jets have made years worth of bad decisions over quarterbacks. Maybe they haven't made many bad QB decisions per se they just ruin QB careers for whatever reason.

[Mariner and Giants Fan]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Well, the playoffs do occur at the end of the season and not the beginning, so I don't really care what happened in September.

A loss in September/October weighs the same as a loss in December. The defense has looked much better against the Rams/Niners/Cards so I am like you hopeful about them going forward but the running game has been sorely lacking and the offensive line is well just that "offensive" still a glaring weakness.

I think that Detroit, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Minnesota are better teams than the Hawks. But all they have to do to make the playoffs is win the division which is really weak this year. However, other than the Jets the Hawks schedule looks quite difficult the rest of the year. They have the Cards and Rams on the road and the Packers and Vikings at home and then they have the Bears in Chicago which is going to be tough, but winnable. They will have to earn this division crown.

[monkeyman576]

They may count the same in the standings but it doesn't take someone with a PHD to know that you'd rather have momentum going into the playoffs than not.