0-6 in the World Series

[aks62]

I've been at the helm for the Cincinnati Reds for over 20 seasons and have qualified for the World Series 6 times. We've lost all 6 of them.

I'm curious how other folks would try to rectify this. My manager is exceptional but I think I need a change there. What else would you all recommend? I've won rings in this file with other teams but Cincy just can't get over the hump.

[MathBandit]

I would recommend that based on this you change nothing because you have significantly exceeded expectations to qualify for 6 WS in 20 years.

[kidd_05_u2]

Eliminate the playoffs and give the title to the team with the best regular season record.

[Brad K]

The World Series is a roll of the dice only slightly loaded in favor of the best team.

[jg2977]

The odds of losing 6 straight World Series is about 1.56%. Do nothing, chances are next time you get back you'll finally win.

[Syd Thrift]

Well it’s still 50/50 when talking about future events; as much as I like to say a guy with a long string of hitless at- bats is “due”, that’s not a thing. Have you considered firing yourself and then hiring yourself as the coach of the Yankees or Astros? I think all universes could use those teams losing the Fall Classic several times.

[aks62]

Originally Posted by jg2977

The odds of losing 6 straight World Series is about 1.56%. Do nothing, chances are next time you get back you'll finally win.

Got back two years later. Got swept. 0-7.

What are those odds? Asking for a friend.

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by aks62

What are those odds? Asking for a friend.

0.78125% or 1 in 128.

[kq76]

I'm surprised no one said maybe you should take a deep look at what exactly your team is good at and what it's not. Yeah, you're good enough to get to the WS which is great, but you need to close the deal at least occasionally. So what could be wrong?

-Not a good enough bullpen? Obvious, I know. Only good teams need focus on it, but when you should focus on it, you really should.

-Not a reliable enough OBA? After all, it not only helps you get across single runs in close games, but a home run with runners on is much better than one without.

-Hitting into too many DPs? I'm not arguing you should only have fly ball hitters on your team, just that if a player is a grounder then he better also have some speed to beat out throws.

-Not enough depth / not enough durability? Guys get injured or tired and by the WS you're running on fumes and playing guys whom you can't rely on.

-Are you pulling pitchers too early (exhausting the bullpen) or too late (allowing more runs than you would otherwise)? I've run into both issues myself and I really think there's a sweet spot one needs to find.

-Not reliable enough fielders? Fielders not making enough great plays or committing too many errors at what end up being key moments? Remember, a great play by a fielder can be just as meaningful run-differential-wise as them hitting a multi-run home run (think Chas McCormick, game 5).

-Is your team offense-first or defense-first? It'd be interesting to check a correlation on this, but it's always been my impression that, while a great offense can win you a lot of random regular season games, a good defense is more reliable/consistent/predictable. Obviously being first in both is ideal, but if my primary goal was to win championships, I'd have to choose defense. That said, I can't help but focus on building my offense as it's simply more fun.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by aks62

Got back two years later. Got swept. 0-7.

What are those odds? Asking for a friend.

Again, you're choosing only to focus on the parts where you got slightly unlucky (losing WS) and not the part where you're getting significantly lucky (back to WS two years later).

If you lost 4 games from June 4th to June 11th every season, would you change anything about your approach from a bigger picture? If not, you shouldn't be changing anything based on losing 4 games from Oct 20th to Oct 27th instead - since those two events are equally meaningful.

[jg2977]

Originally Posted by aks62

Got back two years later. Got swept. 0-7.

What are those odds? Asking for a friend.

If you make it again and lose, 0-8, that would be 1 in 256, or 0.5^8. That's 0.39%.

Maybe you should buy a lottery ticket!

[jcard]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

Again, you're choosing only to focus on the parts where you got slightly unlucky (losing WS) and not the part where you're getting significantly lucky (back to WS two years later).

If you lost 4 games from June 4th to June 11th every season, would you change anything about your approach from a bigger picture? If not, you shouldn't be changing anything based on losing 4 games from Oct 20th to Oct 27th instead - since those two events are equally meaningful.

How can you conclude that without knowing anything about the quality of his team relative to the league or the distribution of team quality? You cannot. For example, suppose his team is an eight team sub-league where his team has an underlying talent level of 109 wins while the other seven teams all have an underlying talent level of 77 wins. The winner of his sub-league plays itÂ’s counterpart from a second sub-league, identical to his in structure and talent distribution.

The odds of any team to make the World Series consistently are long in the abstract / hypothetical, but team-specific when talking about distinct known quantities. That said, I agree that no change in strategy can be advised here based on the information provided; in other words, there is not sufficient reason given to credit bad luck for the 0-7 record.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by jcard

How can you conclude that without knowing anything about the quality of his team relative to the league or the distribution of team quality? You cannot. For example, suppose his team is an eight team sub-league where his team has an underlying talent level of 109 wins while the other seven teams all have an underlying talent level of 77 wins. The winner of his sub-league plays itÂ’s counterpart from a second sub-league, identical to his in structure and talent distribution.

The odds of any team to make the World Series consistently are long in the abstract / hypothetical, but team-specific when talking about distinct known quantities. That said, I agree that no change in strategy can be advised here based on the information provided; in other words, there is not sufficient reason given to credit bad luck for the 0-7 record.

How silly of me to assume a person who mentions a specific club that plays in the MLB and talks about performance in the very specific MLB championship series might be playing in a save that follows MLB format.

@OP - If it turns out your save is a 2-team league of Moon Football where one of the teams happens to be called the Cincinnati Reds and the World Series is the only match played in the season and so you have lost every Football match you've played in because the opposite is taking advantage of the overlap to float crosses into the box, then I would suggest looking for a better left wingback or maybe a centre back.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by jg2977

If you make it again and lose, 0-8, that would be 1 in 256, or 0.5^8. That's 0.39%.

Maybe you should buy a lottery ticket!

At this point if they make the WS their chances of losing are roughly 50%.

[22tbrads22]

If it makes you feel better I’ve now lost 5 in a 9 year span including 3 straight. Feel like the Buffalo bills, it’s always better to suffer with someone though so good luck friend.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

How silly of me to assume a person who mentions a specific club that plays in the MLB and talks about performance in the very specific MLB championship series might be playing in a save that follows MLB format.

@OP - If it turns out your save is a 2-team league of Moon Football where one of the teams happens to be called the Cincinnati Reds and the World Series is the only match played in the season and so you have lost every Football match you've played in because the opposite is taking advantage of the overlap to float crosses into the box, then I would suggest looking for a better left wingback or maybe a centre back.

Were the 1991-2005 Atlanta Braves 14 consecutive playoff appearances a lucky occurrence? No. Was their lack of titles during that period an indication that they were doing something wrong? No. Based on the information provided, I see no reason to reject the possibility that this real MLB scenario could be in effect here.

Yes, I used a simplified and rather extreme model to illustrate a point. That is the essence of a model. It is not intended to be taken as literal description, nor the particular structure necessary for the represented phenomenon to be present to some significant degree. The parameter I was representing was not league structure, but rather talent distribution among teams. Now, it certainly is true that it could be irrelevant to this case. At the same time, I have seen enough posts where a saved user game decades deep has diverged from the real MLB competitive ecology window- particularly with regard to talent distribution and even more so in terms of the user franchise vis-Ã*-vis the league. Once again, I was allowing for the incomplete information provided.

Conversely, the juvenile overtones of your replies are at this point presumed. I suppose you feel that you are making your target (here, me) an object of ridicule. I am sorry that I lack the insecurity required to participate, though I do enjoy the irony.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by jcard

Were the 1991-2005 Atlanta Braves 14 consecutive playoff appearances a lucky occurrence? No. Was their lack of titles during that period an indication that they were doing something wrong? No. Based on the information provided, I see no reason to reject the possibility that this real MLB scenario could be in effect here.

Ah, I guess it's a reading comprehension issue then - since that's specifically what I have been saying all thread. That OP isn't doing anything wrong and is just getting about average playoff luck (good luck in the earlier series and bad luck in the WS).

[jcard]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

Ah, I guess it's a reading comprehension issue then - since that's specifically what I have been saying all thread. That OP isn't doing anything wrong and is just getting about average playoff luck (good luck in the earlier series and bad luck in the WS).

I DID acknowledge that I agreed with your conclusion regarding any prospective departure from current practice- if you look at the conclusion of my first post, you will see that I explicitly endorse your advice.

Moreover, I should say that I was hardly surprised to find this to be the case. I appreciate your posts in general for being both informed and logically tight. My issue here, perhaps obscured by poor presentation, was solely with the first part of your analysis. Namely, that the OP reaching the World Series with such frequency was necessarily equivalent to his winless history in the World Series. It may be, especially in terms of LDS and LCS success, but any presumption is tenuous at best absent further information as to team talent distribution and play-off structure.

Ultimately, however, using most probable default assumptions (i.e., user franchise talent versus league talent, team talent distribution, playoff structure, etc., within a normally observed range) given the incompleteness of the information, would I believe support your overall assessment as superior to the any one of the alternatives. I probably should have been more conscious of making that clear from the beginning.

[aks62]

Folks, it's 0-8 now. Lost in Game 7 after having a 3-2 lead and losing the last 2 at home. Can't make this up.

[20_range]

My team lost six straight Championship Series, matching the real life NY Yankees. It happens :|