1994 outs the 'roid users

chredwdew · 05-02-2007, 03:41 PM

players and actions:

Bonds: Lowering Homer run totals to keep his potentials to be in the top 10. Lowering his walk totals by about %50.

chredwdew · 05-02-2007, 03:47 PM

In my dynasty league 1994 located here:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=146865
The league has put in place rules that will eliminated steroid use of any kind.
What I would like to do here is get your help listing players on the '94 rosters that you believe had sometime in their life had significant enhancements due to steroid use. I would also like your opinion on what you think would be an appropriate amount of editing to their ootp ratings.

An example: I believe Bonds was a major 'roid user, but I think without 'roids he still would have been one of the best players of our time. I would suggest to myself that Bonds should still be one of the better players in the game but should probably never hit over 50 homers. Also he should never draw as many walks as he did.

I will be using the first post to keep track of the process.

Syd Thrift · 05-02-2007, 03:59 PM

Bonds, according to Game of Shadows, didn't start using until 1999. For '94, I'm accusing the following players:

Jose Canseco
Mark McGwire
Ken Caminiti
Rafael Palmeiro
Jay Buhner (actually I think Jay was a big creatine guy, but it's still a performance enhancer)
Brady Anderson (see Buhner)
Roger Clemens

Note that this is pure, mostly unfounded speculation and I am a very bad person for even alleging this. There were probably also a good deal of scrub-type guys who used so that they could have any kind of a major league career at all.

chredwdew · 05-02-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Bonds, according to Game of Shadows, didn't start using until 1999.

You can still add Bonds to that list because I did the import based on peak seasons of their career so Bonds potentials are astronomical.

CatKnight · 05-02-2007, 04:08 PM

Mm....I disagree about Bonds, but it's your tale. I've heard elsewhere (and this is also speculation) that he started in '98. So one idea would be to let him develop naturally, then in 1998-99 if you see his numbers spiking cuz the OOTP aging model is going nuts, knock down his values a bit.

Actually what I would do is guess the last year MLB was relatively clean. Let's say 1997 for the sake of example. Then, assuming you threw out or scared off those who would have used enhancers, then what you do is use the 1997 modifiers to performance going forward and override any figures for 1998 plus.

I realize this is the 'OTHER' game, but you might find this article interesting. http://www.sportsmogul.com/content/steroids.htm Here they speculate that steroid use began around 1985, and what would have happened to the HR records were they eliminated.

chredwdew · 05-02-2007, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

For '94, I'm accusing the following players:

Jose Canseco
Mark McGwire
Ken Caminiti
Rafael Palmeiro
Jay Buhner (actually I think Jay was a big creatine guy, but it's still a performance enhancer)
Brady Anderson (see Buhner)
Roger Clemens

Any suggestions on how much you would penalize each players ratings. Such as would Canseco not even be a Major League level player without steroids

chredwdew · 05-02-2007, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CatKnight

Actually what I would do is guess the last year MLB was relatively clean. Let's say 1997 for the sake of example. Then, assuming you threw out or scared off those who would have used enhancers, then what you do is use the 1997 modifiers to performance going forward and override any figures for 1998 plus.

Thats pretty much the Idea I had for this except just starting in '94. I also imported all the players with potentials based on peak seasons of the careers. That way to keep Bond's (and I know I keep using him he's just a real good example) numbers under control I would need to adjust them in accordance with where I think he would rank within the league as a non steroid user. That way if I think he should still hit more home runs than anyone else in the league just not 70+ in a year, I can leave his potentials alone and the league totals will keep him close to 50. Or if I think maybe he should be in the top 10 not #1 then maybe I would need to knock the potentials down a few % points and keep him in the 40's.

Renner · 05-02-2007, 04:42 PM

He only played for another 3 years, but I'd add Len Dykstra to your list.

mcdswrkr · 05-02-2007, 04:45 PM

some others
David Segui-admitted
A.Belle-I bieleve so
G.Vaughn
L. Gonzalez(That one season just doesn't make sense)

I wouldn't punish players got creatine. Creatine is widely used in HS and isn't technically a steroid. If we were that specific then a more widely used and more effective drug(amphetamines) would have to be banned and that would take us as far back as who knows when. The average use of creatine in HS is very common.

Syd Thrift · 05-02-2007, 05:10 PM

I think Belle's thing was corked bats moreso than steroids. Derek Zumsteg's book The Cheater's Guide To Baseball ran an interesting stat WRT Barry Bonds, who, according to Game of Shadows, was one a 3 weeks on, 1 week off schedule in 2002. Zumsteg took a look at possible start dates and came up with this: while balls in play turned into hits at roughly the same rate and his K rate was similar, his HRs almost doubled during the 3-weeks-on time compared to the 1-week-off. As a control he looked at Bonds' 1997 as well and couldn't find any spike like that.

I would say that for hitters cutting out half or 40% of their HR power rating and making no other changes would probably do the trick. Actually, Bonds had an insane amount of walks during that time as well, which was due in large part to fear about that power. You'd probably want to cut that roughly in half as well.

Syd Thrift · 05-02-2007, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcdswrkr

some others
David Segui-admitted
A.Belle-I bieleve so
G.Vaughn
L. Gonzalez(That one season just doesn't make sense)

I wouldn't punish players got creatine. Creatine is widely used in HS and isn't technically a steroid. If we were that specific then a more widely used and more effective drug(amphetamines) would have to be banned and that would take us as far back as who knows when. The average use of creatine in HS is very common.

1. Creatine may actually be more beneficial to baseball players than steroids because it aids in the development in "twitch" muscles. You're right in that it's not banned, although I still think you have to raise an eyebrow at some of those guys. McGwire, for example, was almost certainly (okay, IMO) using androstiendione as a cover for actual steroids. Who's to say that creatine wasn't similarly employed?

By the way, if you're talking about guys who started later in their careers, you'd definitely also want to add Bret Boone and Jason Grimsley. Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi too, although neither player was (I don't think) around in '94.

2. Speed is banned. Players are tested for it now. I actually thought that banning it would make a bigger impact but it didn't. But it is considered just as illegal and punishable as steroids are.

Sir Lurksalot · 05-02-2007, 05:23 PM

Sammy Sosa
Pudge Rodriguez

Righteous_Halo · 05-02-2007, 05:26 PM

I'd say Sammy Sosa is another likely user.

darkcloud4579 · 05-02-2007, 09:44 PM

Roger Clemens for sure.

darkcloud4579 · 05-02-2007, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Lurksalot

Sammy Sosa
Pudge Rodriguez

Pudge? No way.

CatKnight · 05-02-2007, 10:31 PM

This is all speculation. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.) My point is we could probably make a tolerable case for abuse by any player within the last ten years.

Even if we accept x was an abuser (and of the names given I can go along with most of them), there is a possibility that in this more stringent, less tolerant universe he would have gone straight.

Perhaps the answer is to go ahead with the 1994 numbers....then if you want your commissioner to 'make an example' of someone, pick somebody who from your stats seems to be having a 'suspiciously' good year and jump them.

chredwdew · 05-03-2007, 09:31 AM

Thanks for all of the post and Ideas.

As far as Bonds goes I agree with Syd here

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I would say that for hitters cutting out half or 40% of their HR power rating and making no other changes would probably do the trick. Actually, Bonds had an insane amount of walks during that time as well, which was due in large part to fear about that power. You'd probably want to cut that roughly in half as well.

I think I am going to try to take some of the players that have already mentioned and ask some more specific questions about them and see where that leads.

chredwdew · 05-03-2007, 09:49 AM

Lets start with the big names and just work backwards from there.

Mark McGwire: If McGwire had not taken any performance enhancers, what kind of ballplayer would he have been? Would he have been a 40 homer a year guy and maybe played a little longer? Or do you think he would have been more of a Rob Deer type player.

Sammy Sosa: What do you think Sosa's career would have looked like? Would he have stayed a leadoff hitter type player like he was with the White Sox maybe hitting 20 or so a year? Or was the effect of performance enhancing drugs he possibly took only leading to about 10 -15 extra a year and he would still have hit in the 50's.

Roger Clemens: This one is a tough one. I completely agree that Clemens is or was on something. But what pitching attributes did that something effect? Endurance and longevity defiantly would be a benefit, but correct me if I am wrong, but the ootp aging modifiers (If leaving the recalc player ratings based on real stats button is unchecked) would be completely random after the import and all pitchers would have a similar chance of a longer career.

Joliet Jake · 05-03-2007, 10:23 AM

<--- newly reformed lurker.
I think if the amount of steroid use in the mid 90s were actually known for sure, you might not have to adjust anything at all. I think it was that rampant.
A few of my suspects:

Dave Hollins
Kirk Gibson
Dante Bichette
Bret Boone, and later his brother too.
Darren Daulton (I've been struggling with this one, because I know what a fitness fanatic he was, but he has to be at least a suspect.)
Steve Finley
Ron Gant
Todd Hundley
Jeff Kent
Ray Lankford
Tony Pendleton
Mike Piazza
Kirby Puckett
Chris Sabo
Todd Zeile
Mark Whiten

I hate that I put some of those guys on my list, but there is enough to at least suspect.

NYJuggalo45 · 05-03-2007, 12:36 PM

i think half jake's list is ex-mets...just as a story of a former mets employee being linked to balco, you might have something there

05-02-2007, 03:47 PM	#2
chredwdew Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 273	In my dynasty league 1994 located here: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=146865 The league has put in place rules that will eliminated steroid use of any kind. What I would like to do here is get your help listing players on the '94 rosters that you believe had sometime in their life had significant enhancements due to steroid use. I would also like your opinion on what you think would be an appropriate amount of editing to their ootp ratings. An example: I believe Bonds was a major 'roid user, but I think without 'roids he still would have been one of the best players of our time. I would suggest to myself that Bonds should still be one of the better players in the game but should probably never hit over 50 homers. Also he should never draw as many walks as he did. I will be using the first post to keep track of the process. Last edited by chredwdew; 05-02-2007 at 03:52 PM.

05-02-2007, 04:42 PM	#8
Renner Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Connecticut Posts: 416	He only played for another 3 years, but I'd add Len Dykstra to your list. __________________ I drink only distilled water, or rain water, and only pure-grain alcohol.

05-02-2007, 05:26 PM	#13
Righteous_Halo Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 6	Roids and all that I'd say Sammy Sosa is another likely user.

05-02-2007, 09:44 PM	#14
darkcloud4579 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 8,712	Roger Clemens for sure. __________________ ------ My Mods OOTP Advanced Stats & DFS Suite Managerial Strategy Pack Competitive Balance Tax Calculator Major League Women's Baseball (OOTP24) quickstart Indian Premier League \| 300+ years of baseball quickstart \| Expatriate League quickstart \| Off-Field Injuries Update \| Women's Name File for OOTP \| ---- Dynasty classics: Centurion comes to OOTP5 \| DC Moneyball Dynasty (2004)

05-03-2007, 12:36 PM	#20
NYJuggalo45 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,045	i think half jake's list is ex-mets...just as a story of a former mets employee being linked to balco, you might have something there __________________ This space for rent

05-02-2007, 03:41 PM	#1
chredwdew Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 273	1994 outs the 'roid users players and actions: Bonds: Lowering Homer run totals to keep his potentials to be in the top 10. Lowering his walk totals by about %50. Last edited by chredwdew; 05-03-2007 at 09:52 AM.

05-02-2007, 04:08 PM	#5
CatKnight All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Cleveland, OH Posts: 1,199	Mm....I disagree about Bonds, but it's your tale. I've heard elsewhere (and this is also speculation) that he started in '98. So one idea would be to let him develop naturally, then in 1998-99 if you see his numbers spiking cuz the OOTP aging model is going nuts, knock down his values a bit. Actually what I would do is guess the last year MLB was relatively clean. Let's say 1997 for the sake of example. Then, assuming you threw out or scared off those who would have used enhancers, then what you do is use the 1997 modifiers to performance going forward and override any figures for 1998 plus. I realize this is the 'OTHER' game, but you might find this article interesting. http://www.sportsmogul.com/content/steroids.htm Here they speculate that steroid use began around 1985, and what would have happened to the HR records were they eliminated.

05-02-2007, 04:45 PM	#9
mcdswrkr Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 40	some others David Segui-admitted A.Belle-I bieleve so G.Vaughn L. Gonzalez(That one season just doesn't make sense) I wouldn't punish players got creatine. Creatine is widely used in HS and isn't technically a steroid. If we were that specific then a more widely used and more effective drug(amphetamines) would have to be banned and that would take us as far back as who knows when. The average use of creatine in HS is very common.

05-02-2007, 05:23 PM	#12
Sir Lurksalot All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Arizona Posts: 1,044	Sammy Sosa Pudge Rodriguez

05-02-2007, 10:31 PM	#16
CatKnight All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Cleveland, OH Posts: 1,199	This is all speculation. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.) My point is we could probably make a tolerable case for abuse by any player within the last ten years. Even if we accept x was an abuser (and of the names given I can go along with most of them), there is a possibility that in this more stringent, less tolerant universe he would have gone straight. Perhaps the answer is to go ahead with the 1994 numbers....then if you want your commissioner to 'make an example' of someone, pick somebody who from your stats seems to be having a 'suspiciously' good year and jump them.

05-03-2007, 09:49 AM	#18
chredwdew Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 273	Lets start with the big names and just work backwards from there. Mark McGwire: If McGwire had not taken any performance enhancers, what kind of ballplayer would he have been? Would he have been a 40 homer a year guy and maybe played a little longer? Or do you think he would have been more of a Rob Deer type player. Sammy Sosa: What do you think Sosa's career would have looked like? Would he have stayed a leadoff hitter type player like he was with the White Sox maybe hitting 20 or so a year? Or was the effect of performance enhancing drugs he possibly took only leading to about 10 -15 extra a year and he would still have hit in the 50's. Roger Clemens: This one is a tough one. I completely agree that Clemens is or was on something. But what pitching attributes did that something effect? Endurance and longevity defiantly would be a benefit, but correct me if I am wrong, but the ootp aging modifiers (If leaving the recalc player ratings based on real stats button is unchecked) would be completely random after the import and all pitchers would have a similar chance of a longer career.

05-03-2007, 10:23 AM	#19
Joliet Jake Bat Boy Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6	<--- newly reformed lurker. I think if the amount of steroid use in the mid 90s were actually known for sure, you might not have to adjust anything at all. I think it was that rampant. A few of my suspects: Dave Hollins Kirk Gibson Dante Bichette Bret Boone, and later his brother too. Darren Daulton (I've been struggling with this one, because I know what a fitness fanatic he was, but he has to be at least a suspect.) Steve Finley Ron Gant Todd Hundley Jeff Kent Ray Lankford Tony Pendleton Mike Piazza Kirby Puckett Chris Sabo Todd Zeile Mark Whiten I hate that I put some of those guys on my list, but there is enough to at least suspect.