Anyone done any testing on prospect development in v25.2.52?

[Syd Thrift]

Guys you don't understaaaaaaaaand why isn't 50-rated Michael Smith, the 37th ranked out of all of the 2022 graduates, an 80????? You should know that everyone who plays for the Braves gets an automatic Atlantaboost to their ratings!!! I am a smart person.

[thenewchuckd]

Originally Posted by locuspc

It's not gaslighting when someone tells you you're wrong. That's a gross abuse of language.

If I could pick at #1 and get a distribution of players with career WAR of like you see in real life, I would be happy. Of course with top staff I would expect to do a bit better than that. But let's start with baby steps.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-...mlb-draft-pick

[thenewchuckd]

Also, I don't have a good feel for international players but I sort of believe that scouts should be able to identify generational talent and have at least a good idea if players might make it to the bigs when spending top dollar.

My experience is international players just don't stand a chance in OOTP. Even if they can make it out of the complex decently rated (which is rare), they're going to struggle forever at rookie ball and likely never make it out of there. Sometimes the game even promotes them at 16 or 17 just so they can hit .200 at rookie ball.

I remember when the Jays splashed the cash on Vlad, it was known he would make it to the bigs. Sure he's struggling now but he made it & still might be a superstar.

(I speak mainly of positional players; sometimes with a weird development path I can get pitchers to the big leagues; usually 2-3 seasons of struggle in rookie ball where their ratings just drop, then they start to move up and their ratings do as well; often hitting the bigs with top ratings and even throwing lights out before taking a dive again; it is so predictable that it is funny if it wasn't so frustrating)

[Baconi]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

If I could pick at #1 and get a distribution of players with career WAR of like you see in real life, I would be happy. Of course with top staff I would expect to do a bit better than that. But let's start with baby steps.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-...mlb-draft-pick

The linked article just tells me that since 2013, first overall draft picks have not been consistently good at all. Rutschman looks good and it's still too early to say for others, but this seems to emphasize that baseball prospects can have very random outcomes.

[Tesla51P]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

There are some minor things with development we're still planning to work on, including creating more outliers on the default settings. So basically creating more players who are very good very young (19-21), more players who stay very good when old (late 30's to early 40's) etc.

This is great to hear. There are a few things in my testing that would be nice to see tweaked, and this is one of them. In general, I want to say there are some people that really appreciate some of the changes you guys are making.Making the average player closer to 50 and lessening the number of elite players in the league makes the game feel much more authentic to me.


I do fee like there are some things that could use further tweaking like the player creation modifiers, but I also have the power to modify those myself which I plan on doing. I personally like the player potentials to match more along Future Value ratings of what a player is more expected to do, which is a personal preference.

[Tesla51P]

I think part of players complaints reading this thread is there is just a range of what people expect in the game. Some people like me want the game to be as much of a realistic sim as possible while others want more of a casual gaming experience. Players like me want to see prospects fail or become just average players while others want to watch their top prospects become superstars consistently. Both approaches are perfectly valid, and the great thing is OOTP has so many customization options in the settings you can achieve both.

For those of you that want you top prospects to succeed more often, I would recommend turning your Talent Change Randomness down a good amount. The higher the TCR, the higher the odds that player loses potential. You can also turn up the player development settings.

I do think it would be nice to have OOTP pre-loaded settings groups to make it easier to set the game up into the style you want. That or making an easy way to export settings for others to easily load them without having to export a whole league. There are a lot of settings which is great, but not everyone can spend the time going through all the settings and finding what makes the game play how they want.This would in theory allow both the types of players to be happy with the games updates and changes to the default settings while making it easier on the user.

[mrpoopistan]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

So you're saying I can just hire a monkey for all MLB teams in real life to do the drafting and everyone will be fine with it?

I mean, this is the median fan's opinion of their favorite team's front office. Simulation accuracy 100% there.

I can't play the random crap shoot development game anymore.

This part I agree with. The only predictable thing I've seen in OOTP25 is that every generated player who enters MLB before the age of 21 is going to be ground into cat food.


The game is an unfun grind when there's zero predictability to both drafting and development. Drafting has been my favorite part of the game for years because it was fun to filter guys and narrow in on the best meta for finding the right players.


Also, this version of the game renders international amateur free agency pointless. You might as well zero out that part of your budget because OOTP thinks there will never be another Ronald Acuna come out of the DR. (Say that sentence out loud. It's bonkers.)

[LacSlyer]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

I must have missed the rebuttal. Because nowhere did I see anything that addresses the total disappearance of generated 80-grade players.

...and OOTP doesn't fail to generate 80 grade players. It just generates a few less than in previous versions.

That is the developer of the game, who knows far more about the inner workings of it than you do, telling you it's not an issue. I'm more inclined to take his word than yours for one reason, because instead of providing some context that could actually help him fix a problem you believe exists you're more intent on being rude toward him and play the victim whenever he refutes your proclamations while still expecting him to fix "the problem".



But, please, go on about how he's attacking you and poor you can't play this game exactly the way you think it should be designed. We're all listening.

[mrpoopistan]

Originally Posted by Baconi

The linked article just tells me that since 2013, first overall draft picks have not been consistently good at all. Rutschman looks good and it's still too early to say for others, but this seems to emphasize that baseball prospects can have very random outcomes.

There are four straight 40+ WAR dudes on that list. That's not a random outcome. It's not even stochastic.

[Tesla51P]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

I mean, this is the median fan's opinion of their favorite team's front office. Simulation accuracy 100% there.

This part I agree with. The only predictable thing I've seen in OOTP25 is that every generated player who enters MLB before the age of 21 is going to be ground into cat food.


The game is an unfun grind when there's zero predictability to both drafting and development. Drafting has been my favorite part of the game for years because it was fun to filter guys and narrow in on the best meta for finding the right players.


Also, this version of the game renders international amateur free agency pointless. You might as well zero out that part of your budget because OOTP thinks there will never be another Ronald Acuna come out of the DR. (Say that sentence out loud. It's bonkers.)

Have you tried setting your Talent Change Randomness lower and the Development speed settings higher in your games. I think you can use the combo of those settings to get your game into the style you want.

[mrpoopistan]

Originally Posted by LacSlyer

whenever he refutes your proclamations

Where is this refutation you all keep saying he offered?

[LacSlyer]

Originally Posted by thenewchuckd

You are cherry picking parts of what I said and distorting them to say I am wrong. Also denying my personal experience. This is gaslighting 101.

So you're saying I can just hire a monkey for all MLB teams in real life to do the drafting and everyone will be fine with it? Or maybe a random number generator?

I can somewhat enjoy the game if I turn off international amateurs and have the rookie draft be guys 20+; but then I start start to get annoyed again.

I can't play the random crap shoot development game anymore.

Here's the real problem. You think your personal experience with the game is a problem with the game and not how you play the game.



I'm not even saying everything you claim to be a problem doesn't exist, just that it's hard to believe you're serious when you can't seem to comprehend why not ever top prospect doesn't work out and yell at the developer that this isn't realistic.

I can't play the random crap shoot development game anymore.

This begs the question, do you even follow baseball beyond watching games on TV? Almost everyone that isn't drafted in the first round most years is playing a crapshoot. Literally 90% of players drafted don't even get to the Majors.

[mrpoopistan]

Originally Posted by Tesla51P

Have you tried setting your Talent Change Randomness lower and the Development speed settings higher in your games. I think you can use the combo of those settings to get your game into the style you want.

TCR does not change the distribution of talent. It only makes it more volatile, which annoys me more. Also, development speed settings won't fix the fact that the game drowns every player from the DR and US high schools.


I did a sim after posting today, and it generated one guy who made it close to 80-grade in six years. (77, but this is a notable improvement over the previous sim's zero.) That one guy started as a 21 y.o. American college player with 25/80 talent.


To be clear, the current version of the game insists that there won't be a single generated player who starts out at age 16 in the DR or 18 in the US who'll arrive between now and the end of 2030 and perform even close to an 80 grade. No next Mike Trout. No next Ronald Acuna. They're going extinct.

OOTP already requires too much flipping switches and controls. For example, I don't really need it murdering my drives with WPA graphs and 3D movements for games I'll never check. Adding more knobs to turn means adding more things I might forget each time I set up a game. And OOTP doesn't store those settings.

[84Cubs]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

1) There shouldn't be a league-wide failure to develop any young 80-grade players. Michael Harris and Ronald Acuna exist.

Does a 80 grade Ronald Acuna exist in real life? If you look at the 2018 prospect rankings he was a 70 overall. Ohtani was a 60 overall.



The closest was 2014 Byron Buxton who was a 75. Most top prospects the last 10 years are 65 or 70.



https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/top100/

[mrpoopistan]

Originally Posted by 84Cubs

Does a 80 grade Ronald Acuna exist in real life? If you look at the 2018 prospect rankings he was a 70 overall. Ohtani was a 60 overall.

I'm not talking a wire-to-wire 80-grade prospect. Those are rare. I get that part. Ken Griffey, Jr. is rare.


I'm talking anyone who becomes an 80-grade player from an entire set of high school draft and IAFA classes over six years. Even expanding to college drafted, I got one guy when I did a new sim.

[LacSlyer]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

OOTP already requires too much flipping switches and controls. For example, I don't really need it murdering my drives with WPA graphs and 3D movements for games I'll never check. Adding more knobs to turn means adding more things I might forget each time I set up a game. And OOTP doesn't store those settings.

You can export league settings and import them as you create a game. You can do the same for game settings as templates.

[84Cubs]

Originally Posted by 84Cubs

Does a 80 grade Ronald Acuna exist in real life? If you look at the 2018 prospect rankings he was a 70 overall. Ohtani was a 60 overall.

The closest was 2014 Byron Buxton who was a 75. Most top prospects the last 10 years are 65 or 70.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/top100/

Also for 2024 MLB top 100, Holliday is 70, Chourio is a 65 and Skenes is a 65.



The way people drool over Skenes you'd think he is ranked an 80. But no, he is a 65 and currently destroying AAA hitting.



https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/paul-skenes-694973

[84Cubs]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

I'm not talking a wire-to-wire 80-grade prospect. Those are rare. I get that part. Ken Griffey, Jr. is rare.

I'm talking anyone who becomes an 80-grade player from an entire set of high school draft and IAFA classes over six years. Even expanding to college drafted, I got one guy when I did a new sim.

Ok, show me in which MLB prospect list where Acuna was rated 80?

[Tesla51P]

Originally Posted by LacSlyer

You can export league settings and import them as you create a game. You can do the same for game settings as templates.

Ah that is interesting there are templates. Maybe it would still be nice for OOTP to have on the league creation wizard the option to use a couple of preset templates from the devs to align toward different player expectations. Lowering the bar to entry for newer players while still allowing them to customize at a very high level is only a good thing for the game.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by mrpoopistan

I'm not talking a wire-to-wire 80-grade prospect. Those are rare. I get that part. Ken Griffey, Jr. is rare.


I'm talking anyone who becomes an 80-grade player from an entire set of high school draft and IAFA classes over six years. Even expanding to college drafted, I got one guy when I did a new sim.

That's how it's in RL. Maybe a handful players become 80 grade players in their lifetimes. Ohtani is not even 80 grade.