There is still a problem with velocity decline

[tktkrtktkr]

The issue of velocity decline that occurred after the August patch was not fully fixed despite the September and October patches.

The problem is that high-speed (97+) pitchers tend to lose speed in their 20s too often, and the degree to which they lose is also too much. So the overall aging curve becomes unrealistic. Below are data about 97+mph pitcher's aging from the OOTP Standard League, simulated for 20 years with injury setting off, and 2010-24 MLB. (Fictional leagues did not take into account.)



In this way, I compared 127 OOTP pitchers and 42 MLB pitchers. (Please ignore bad image quality)



The aging curve is not mean speed by age, but truncated mean of change between ages.
The targets are pitchers who have played in big league for more than four seasons and whose speed is 97+ mph. Both OOTP and MLB are same that speed is the best at age of 25 and 26, but unlike the reality that speed gradually declines until 30, in OOTP speed drastically decrease from age 27, and lose more than a mile at the 28, which is three years faster than the reality.




It is also abnormal to look at the ratio of 97+ pitchers whose speeds decreased by 2, 3 miles or more in the same situation. In OOTP, 90 percent of pitchers lose more than 2 miles before the age of 30. Please note that there is no injury in OOTP. (*The calculation was made by considering the difference that speed is expressed as an integer in OOTP)




I think it is an unpleasant factor that pitchers in his mid-20s loses his speed significantly for no reason, which is neither realistic nor fun.
Reducing TCR or slowing the aging speed of pitchers and aging target age won't solve the problem. So this is a problem that cannot be solved by personal settings.

[Rain King]

Appreciate the research here.

Do you have a study that shows this actually affects the overall aging curve? Can you show that the pitchers are actually declining in performance more than they should?

I do think we can tend to ask the Devs to tinker a bit too much with super specific components when the most important part is the overall player performance.

Also, a 47 pitcher MLB sample size isn't particularly significant...particularly when it takes 14 MLB seasons to get that sample size.

I think it is great that you are looking at/presenting this, but I do think it is a pretty minor issue.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Appreciate the research here.

Do you have a study that shows this actually affects the overall aging curve? Can you show that the pitchers are actually declining in performance more than they should?

I do think we can tend to ask the Devs to tinker a bit too much with super specific components when the most important part is the overall player performance.

Also, a 47 pitcher MLB sample size isn't particularly significant...particularly when it takes 14 MLB seasons to get that sample size.

I think it is great that you are looking at/presenting this, but I do think it is a pretty minor issue.

OOTP's 127 is the result of 20 years of sim at the level of 2024, when the speed of pitchers skyrocketed, and MLB's data includ the results from 2010 when there were 14 pitchers who throws 97 miles to 2024 when there were 65. Players with career gaps, too young or too old, were excluded from the sample, which was also the case when calculating the value of OOTP. Therefore it's not a problem.

So, does velocity decline have any real impact? Of course, it does. It is a reduction in stuff for no reason, even before the full aging starts. After the first TCR patch, over 70% of young pitchers lost speed more than 2 miles, which had a significant impact on the pitcher's stuff drop. It has now less impact than then because decline does less after fix patches. But I don't think that it could be a reason why we shouldn't resolve the velocity issue.

I've been monitoring pitchers' ratings by running simulations on each patch, and the last two patches have fixed velocity decline, but nothing has changed other than speed. Maybe devs who are modifying think differently, but they will look at this and decide whether to revise again like last time or ignore it because it's a minor part. There's no reason to find a reason not to fix a problem after noticing it.

[Matt Arnold]

I think for the moment we're getting close. Thanks for the deep research and investigations - we're definitely in a better place than we were a while back.

It does certainly seem that velocities are more consistent than I would have necessarily expected. It's always a little hard to separate out, just because samples are sparse for guys with a decent enough sample over multiple seasons.

It does seem like velocities tend to peak around age 25-27 for a lot of guys (although not everyone). You always have a few cases like a Kelvim Herrera who was hitting 99 at age 22 and then was down to 96, but yeah, they seem to be a little more the exception.

Whether we make any more changes to this for now, or dig in further before next year, I'm not sure. We always have to be careful that any changes we make don't have un-intended side effects.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

I think for the moment we're getting close. Thanks for the deep research and investigations - we're definitely in a better place than we were a while back.

It does certainly seem that velocities are more consistent than I would have necessarily expected. It's always a little hard to separate out, just because samples are sparse for guys with a decent enough sample over multiple seasons.

It does seem like velocities tend to peak around age 25-27 for a lot of guys (although not everyone). You always have a few cases like a Kelvim Herrera who was hitting 99 at age 22 and then was down to 96, but yeah, they seem to be a little more the exception.

Whether we make any more changes to this for now, or dig in further before next year, I'm not sure. We always have to be careful that any changes we make don't have un-intended side effects.

Yes, it's definitely getting better with each patch.
In general, the speed of a pitcher peaks around age 26 and decreases very gradually by about 30.

Thank you for your interest.

[Pembroke]

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SPAM!!!!!:shoo ter:

[kq76]

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