Just wanna know...

[Art Deco]

...why virtually every time I get the option to send a runner home and I choose "yes" he's thrown out at the plate?

Shouldn't it at least be closer to 50-50?

[Guthrien]

No, it should be based on the Arm rating, your speed and the relative position in the field shown on the graphic (it seems somewhat accurate to me for the purposes of judging positioning). I think you need to look at those moments as a true risk proposition which is the only reason it's prompting you; "this is a risk, do you want to take it?" After that I'm assuming it's poor judgement or bad luck, but not a 50/50 gamble.

[Battman]

The relative position is actually given in the pop up narrative - the ball is shallow / very shallow / deep / etc which should help somewhat. Game situation will also indicate sometimes whether they will even throw.

[Highlander]

I find that the graphics help as well.....if the message pops up when the fielder already has the ball and is getting ready to throw, the runner is usually out. If the message pops up when the fielder seems like he isn't quite ready to throw, the chances are better. This is all anecdotal, but it seems to at least be somewhat of a factor.

[pgjocki]

I NEVER NEVER send the guy as I have been burned to many times with the fastest guy in the league and a noodle arm outfielder who is deep and weak arm that throws my guy out by 10 feet that I almost need to take anxiety pills before playing a game.

[Battman]

Originally Posted by pgjocki

I NEVER NEVER send the guy as I have been burned to many times with the fastest guy in the league and a noodle arm outfielder who is deep and weak arm that throws my guy out by 10 feet that I almost need to take anxiety pills before playing a game.

Lol

[jets12]

I stopped trying to steal bases in this game a long time ago. It almost never worked for me regardless of the circumstances. Now the AI is almost always successful. That is just my experience. I have accepted that stealing bases is not a part of my strategy when playing the game.

[Syd Thrift]

IME the AI is successful the amount of time that successes in real life happen. With stealing, the old saying is, you steal on the pitcher, not the catcher, so bear that in mind: steal on guys with low Hold Runners ratings. With baserunning it feels like people are ignoring one of the variables: yes, baserunner speed and outfield arm are important, but so is the depth of the flyball. A shallow fly is going to wind up as an out most of the time if you try to use it regardless of your runner and the other guy's arm. Conversely, a very deep fly will almost always result in a SF. You can influence things around the edges, with "medium" flies and so on but bear in mind that real-life managers and also the AI will probably be a lot more conservative than you.

[micropterus58]

I always look at the fielders arm ratings in the beginning of the game. I make a note of who I can run on. Then the depth and situation of the game determines if I try for home.

[Guthrien]

The game gives you a pretty good idea. "do you want to run he has a CANNON for an arm". But of course it says normal/normal too. I guess the part I'm happy about is, despite the animation issues at times with OOTP, you can make a helpful guess based on the location of where the ball is if it will impact their relevant ratings. I called it a less than 50/50 bet to be sure because unless arm, runner and location line up, it's not worth doing.

[Brad K]

The animation is not data.

[Pelican]

Remember that the game frequently advances the runners on its own, successfully, without your intervention. That means that, when asked, you are looking at a subset of all base advances. That subset is comprised of closer plays, so the success rate won't be great.

As others have suggested, the pertinent factors in play are the baserunner's speed and ability, and the outfielder's arm, combined with your analysis of where the ball has been hit. Plus, of course, how many outs there are. Runners are far more successful with two out, as they can take off at the crack of the bat. Just as IRL.

I find the graphics of the play to often be misleading. I rely far more on the narrative, which will drop hints like a hit into "shallow" CF or the like.

But you're not wrong. You can make the "right" call as base coach, send the guy, and still he gets thrown out. I too have seen it happen with a fast runner and an OF with a mediocre arm, on a ball hit pretty deep. Though rarely, with two outs.

One area where the graphic can help is a bloop hit, Texas Leaguer, that gives the runner extra time, as the fielder has to wait for the ball to come down. Send that guy.