Gripe: Baserunners running back to first on a pitch out

[texasmame]

If you guess right on the pitch out, it should result in an easy caught stealing. Getting back to the bag on a pitch out after a runner has already committed to stealing a base is just silly.

[Pelican]

I had one recently where the runner stealing on a pitch-out stopped and got caught in a rundown. That was cool to see, and actually more realistic than simply returning to the original base.

I've seen a number of runners steal the base despite the pitchout. Not optimal.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by texasmame

If you guess right on the pitch out, it should result in an easy caught stealing. Getting back to the bag on a pitch out after a runner has already committed to stealing a base is just silly.

Not quite what you’re asking but if memory serves the data on pitchouts is that they do reduce the chances of a successful steal but not to the extent one might think: IIRC it lowers the chances by about 10-20 percent. That’s easily enough to make a steal a net negative but consider that runners get a jump off the pitcher, not so much the catcher and in many cases a pitchout will still result in a steal (in fact, IIRC somewhere around 50-60% of the time).

[Syd Thrift]

Dola,

Man, data is hard to come by. Here’s a an article on favor of doing more of them although one should realize that pitchout rates are veeeeeery low now compared to history, like the article notes that we might have as many as 50 in the entire league this season:


https://northsidebaseball.com/news-r...r-season-r867/

The interesting part of the article notes that:


1. A pitchout lowers a catcher’s pop time by about 1/10th of a second, and
2. This seems to effectively double the CS rate in the sample they looked at.


This isn’t actually that far off from what I noted. The league wide steal success rate is 80%; even if pitchouts made CSes twice as likely, that would make steals still successful 60% of the time. They’re rarely used, too, because if you guess wrong you’re giving the batter a free ball and the data indicate managers guess wrong about 80% of the time.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

1. A pitchout lowers a catcher’s pop time by about 1/10th of a second

I'm not surprised by this. If you think about what is actually happening on a pitchout, the pitcher is throwing the pitch to an area that the catcher is not yet physically in, so it's not a slam dunk that the location of the thrown pitch and where the catcher jumps out to are going to be a perfect match. Even though the catcher is out of his crouch and in a better vertical position to throw, he's still not necessarily receiving the ball in the most ideal location.... so I could totally see the pop time not being any huge improvement. What you're gaining in the catcher already out of the crouch, you might be giving right back with where the catcher receives the ball.

Granted, a perfectly executed pitchout will still nail a runner with ease, but given how rare they are nowadays (meaning they probably aren't practiced a ton) "perfectly executed" is a very rare occurance.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by md40022

I'm not surprised by this. If you think about what is actually happening on a pitchout, the pitcher is throwing the pitch to an area that the catcher is not yet physically in, so it's not a slam dunk that the location of the thrown pitch and where the catcher jumps out to are going to be a perfect match. Even though the catcher is out of his crouch and in a better vertical position to throw, he's still not necessarily receiving the ball in the most ideal location.... so I could totally see the pop time not being any huge improvement. What you're gaining in the catcher already out of the crouch, you might be giving right back with where the catcher receives the ball.

Granted, a perfectly executed pitchout will still nail a runner with ease, but given how rare they are nowadays (meaning they probably aren't practiced a ton) "perfectly executed" is a very rare occurance.

I can’t find the data but I know they were studied a bit more in the past when they were more popular and even then they only reduced success rates to 50-60% instead of like 10% the way people think should be happening.

[texasmame]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Dola,

Man, data is hard to come by. Here’s a an article on favor of doing more of them although one should realize that pitchout rates are veeeeeery low now compared to history, like the article notes that we might have as many as 50 in the entire league this season:


https://northsidebaseball.com/news-r...r-season-r867/

The interesting part of the article notes that:


1. A pitchout lowers a catcher’s pop time by about 1/10th of a second, and
2. This seems to effectively double the CS rate in the sample they looked at.


This isn’t actually that far off from what I noted. The league wide steal success rate is 80%; even if pitchouts made CSes twice as likely, that would make steals still successful 60% of the time. They’re rarely used, too, because if you guess wrong you’re giving the batter a free ball and the data indicate managers guess wrong about 80% of the time.

Party pooper.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by texasmame

Party pooper.

I was voted Most Likely to Poop In A Party, so it’s apt.

[HerbD]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I was voted Most Likely to Poop In A Party, so it’s apt.

This post is just another valid reason to return the like button!