Players' ratings got a bit confusing

[tts0]

Maybe it was that way the whole time and new visualisation just put me off the track but I got a bit of hard time making sense out of some of the players' ratings right now.

For instance, pitcher's movement consists of BABIP and HRA, which basically indicates said pitcher's abillity to induce weak contact (lots of groundouts and/or flyouts). It seems obvious that it affects hitter's BABIP and POWER. So if we had a pitcher with perfect movement, they would be able to allow almost no hits at all. But what about stuff then? Is it solely calculated against hitter's avoid K's or does it actually affect everything? Cuz, you know, when pitcher has ridiculous stuff, you can't make any contact with the ball anyways, so your BABIP and POWER don't really matter. But then, what do you need movement for? You just strike out every batter you face.

What Im basically saying is this. If the game calculates the outcomes of the PA this way (bare some randomness, of course):

EYE vs CONTROL for walks
AVOID K's vs STUFF for strikeouts
BABIP vs PBABIP for hits (plus GAP and SPEED for doubles and tripples)
POWER vs HRA for home runs

then STUFF doesn't seem as impactful as it perhaps should, in my opinion.

I think that previous formula made a little bit more sense - STUFF destroys CONTACT and weather that contact is a hit, HR or out, should be determined by hitter's BABIP and POWER. Then AVOID K's is just a modifier that increases the likelihood of a PA ending via some sort of contact with the ball (not necessarily a hit) or a walk.

[Branflakes]

You have it basically right in the mechanics. But stuff is still incredibly powerful. Say a pitcher strikes a guy out 30%, walk 10%, contact 60%. Assuming .300 babip, batter will hit .200 (w obp of .280). Now change ONLY the stuff so that strikeouts are down to 20%. Now batter hits .233 (w obp of .310). Hr/9 will go up more than 17% because 17% more PA end in contact, compounded by pitcher having to face more batters because batter obp is higher.

I think stuff is slightly more important than the other two ratings. I think of it as 3:2:2 priority between stuff, mov, ctrl. (Though I mostly play reds so I prioritize mov a bit extra - gabp)

[DrPhilipino]

Originally Posted by Branflakes

You have it basically right in the mechanics. But stuff is still incredibly powerful. Say a pitcher strikes a guy out 30%, walk 10%, contact 60%. Assuming .300 babip, batter will hit .200 (w obp of .280). Now change ONLY the stuff so that strikeouts are down to 20%. Now batter hits .233 (w obp of .310). Hr/9 will go up more than 17% because 17% more PA end in contact, compounded by pitcher having to face more batters because batter obp is higher.

I think stuff is slightly more important than the other two ratings. I think of it as 3:2:2 priority between stuff, mov, ctrl. (Though I mostly play reds so I prioritize mov a bit extra - gabp)

In previous versions I'd say stuff was easily the single most important rating for pitchers, now I actually think it's control.

In old versions you could have a 75 stuff 40 movement 40 control pitcher as either a starter or reliever and be very successful most seasons. In the new version I haven't seen that profile succeed over 3 seasons across my entire league. All of the top pitchers at the end of season have a minimum 50 control and stuff can range from 45 to 80

[tts0]

Other thing I find interesting is that average CONTACT rating actually doesnt translate into league average AVG because it doesnt take power into equation, which - in my opinion - is fundamentally wrong as HRs certainly contribute to the AVG formula (via being hits). That created some confusion on my part as Ive been constantly seeing supousedly average contact hitters not hitting for enough contact. Now I know that truly average contact hitter should also have around 50 POWER or simply like 70-80 CONTACT with barely any POWER.

It seems like an odd decision to make on those specific ratings but maybe there is something under the hood that justifies that.

[fredbeene]

but manual and in game help and pop up tool tips clarify all the changes an confusion, right?
thanks for being beta testers!

[Guthrien]

I thought the way the system worked is it determined hit, and then power / gap determined whether it's extra base. That way a Rod Carew Arraez hitter could thrive. However in my games they almost never do, it never seems sustainable nor do other guys with that profile thrive. It seemed like BABIP should have made that transparent.

[Pelican]

The OP summary captures how I generally understood the hitter and pitcher ratings played off each other. I play a lot of historical sims, and the Deadball Era provides a kind of test of this theory, with high Contact and low strike out totals for hitters, and pitchers with tame stuff by today's standards, but all sorts of movement from spitballs and lots of knuckleballs. The results I am seeing are about what one would expect from that era. Of course, the incredible durability of starting pitchers changes the game significantly.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by tts0

Other thing I find interesting is that average CONTACT rating actually doesnt translate into league average AVG because it doesnt take power into equation, which - in my opinion - is fundamentally wrong as HRs certainly contribute to the AVG formula (via being hits). That created some confusion on my part as Ive been constantly seeing supousedly average contact hitters not hitting for enough contact. Now I know that truly average contact hitter should also have around 50 POWER or simply like 70-80 CONTACT with barely any POWER.

It seems like an odd decision to make on those specific ratings but maybe there is something under the hood that justifies that.

There was a deliberate move to uncouple power from contact this year. It definitely used to be the case that for a modern league, at least, Contact was an approximation of batting average whereas now it's really the "hit tool" and the "hit tool" alone. You're right; a guy with a 70 contact and 20 power will have a lower average, all other things being equal, than a guy with 70 and 50 in those ratings.

One issue I always had with that is that I think it led the AI to make poor decisions on players, particularly in historical contexts where there weren't as many HRs hit as there are today. Deadball AI will still do stuff like try to bat high Power guys cleanup, so it ain't perfect, but at least it'll see the total Contact-related value of high-average players from that era. To an extent people thought about baseball differently then; I do think, though, that IRL once power became a thing scouts separated power from contact even to this day and therefore that's the better way for the game to "think" about guys.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by Branflakes

You have it basically right in the mechanics. But stuff is still incredibly powerful. Say a pitcher strikes a guy out 30%, walk 10%, contact 60%. Assuming .300 babip, batter will hit .200 (w obp of .280). Now change ONLY the stuff so that strikeouts are down to 20%. Now batter hits .233 (w obp of .310). Hr/9 will go up more than 17% because 17% more PA end in contact, compounded by pitcher having to face more batters because batter obp is higher.

I think stuff is slightly more important than the other two ratings. I think of it as 3:2:2 priority between stuff, mov, ctrl. (Though I mostly play reds so I prioritize mov a bit extra - gabp)

fantastic post

[jksander]

Posts like this are why these are the best forums on the net ...

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by Pelican

The OP summary captures how I generally understood the hitter and pitcher ratings played off each other. I play a lot of historical sims, and the Deadball Era provides a kind of test of this theory, with high Contact and low strike out totals for hitters, and pitchers with tame stuff by today's standards, but all sorts of movement from spitballs and lots of knuckleballs. The results I am seeing are about what one would expect from that era. Of course, the incredible durability of starting pitchers changes the game significantly.

Having historical play and having to account for the different eras and making that all work in a single world is likely the most complex aspect of the game.

[EZB]

Originally Posted by tts0

Maybe it was that way the whole time and new visualisation just put me off the track but I got a bit of hard time making sense out of some of the players' ratings right now.

For instance, pitcher's movement consists of BABIP and HRA, which basically indicates said pitcher's abillity to induce weak contact (lots of groundouts and/or flyouts). It seems obvious that it affects hitter's BABIP and POWER. So if we had a pitcher with perfect movement, they would be able to allow almost no hits at all. But what about stuff then? Is it solely calculated against hitter's avoid K's or does it actually affect everything? Cuz, you know, when pitcher has ridiculous stuff, you can't make any contact with the ball anyways, so your BABIP and POWER don't really matter. But then, what do you need movement for? You just strike out every batter you face.

What Im basically saying is this. If the game calculates the outcomes of the PA this way (bare some randomness, of course):

EYE vs CONTROL for walks
AVOID K's vs STUFF for strikeouts
BABIP vs PBABIP for hits (plus GAP and SPEED for doubles and tripples)
POWER vs HRA for home runs

then STUFF doesn't seem as impactful as it perhaps should, in my opinion.

I think that previous formula made a little bit more sense - STUFF destroys CONTACT and weather that contact is a hit, HR or out, should be determined by hitter's BABIP and POWER. Then AVOID K's is just a modifier that increases the likelihood of a PA ending via some sort of contact with the ball (not necessarily a hit) or a walk.

I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider ratings as how it impacts outcomes:

Stuff and avoid Ks impact the number of strikeouts per plate appearance
Control and eye impact the number of walks per plate appearance
HRA and power impact the number of home runs per plate appearance
pBABIP and BABIP impact the number of non-HR hits per plate appearance

For any pitcher-hitter matchup (on neutral stadium modifiers), these together will create the ratio of non-HR hits, HRs, walks, and strikeouts. From that, it’s probability.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Guthrien

I thought the way the system worked is it determined hit, and then power / gap determined whether it's extra base. That way a Rod Carew Arraez hitter could thrive. However in my games they almost never do, it never seems sustainable nor do other guys with that profile thrive. It seemed like BABIP should have made that transparent.

I have a guy with 70 contact, 70 avoid k's and only 35 power. He regularly hits over .350 in my league. Unfortunately he usually only plays about 50 games a season before his knee explodes.

[tts0]

Originally Posted by tts0

Other thing I find interesting is that average CONTACT rating actually doesnt translate into league average AVG because it doesnt take power into equation, which - in my opinion - is fundamentally wrong as HRs certainly contribute to the AVG formula (via being hits). That created some confusion on my part as Ive been constantly seeing supousedly average contact hitters not hitting for enough contact. Now I know that truly average contact hitter should also have around 50 POWER or simply like 70-80 CONTACT with barely any POWER.

It seems like an odd decision to make on those specific ratings but maybe there is something under the hood that justifies that.

So, after playing out few more seasons, I might have finally cracked all of this, then I need to correct myself on the statement above.

Actually, CONTACT is an indicator of players projected AVG but with a caviat, that very high SO% guys might struggle regardless, which is resonable.

The confusing part, that I might have cleared out in my head, was BABIP, which actually is NOT BABIP at all, unless not the one we could incorporate with the stat called the same way. BABIP rating is actually a HIT RATE and should be called that. It determines how many batted balls will or will not result in any sort of hit. Weather that hit would be a single, double or HR is determined by GAP POWER and POWER, which now works exactly the same - as a modyfier on top of BABIP (HIT RATE). So a guy with 30 CONTACT (derived from AVOID K's and BABIP) and 80 (raw) POWER might hit the ball only 50 times a season, but all those hits would be homers. I mean, thats a bit exagerated example, but thats how it works.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by tts0

So, after playing out few more seasons, I might have finally cracked all of this, then I need to correct myself on the statement above.

Actually, CONTACT is an indicator of players projected AVG but with a caviat, that very high SO% guys might struggle regardless, which is resonable.

The confusing part, that I might have cleared out in my head, was BABIP, which actually is NOT BABIP at all, unless not the one we could incorporate with the stat called the same way. BABIP rating is actually a HIT RATE and should be called that. It determines how many batted balls will or will not result in any sort of hit. Weather that hit would be a single, double or HR is determined by GAP POWER and POWER, which now works exactly the same - as a modyfier on top of BABIP (HIT RATE). So a guy with 30 CONTACT (derived from AVOID K's and BABIP) and 80 (raw) POWER might hit the ball only 50 times a season, but all those hits would be homers. I mean, thats a bit exagerated example, but thats how it works.

I'm not sure that's correct. Since BABIP does not include HR, players with an equal BABIP rating should hit for an equal amount of non-homers

[tts0]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

I'm not sure that's correct. Since BABIP does not include HR, players with an equal BABIP rating should hit for an equal amount of non-homers

BABIP, the statistic, yes, as its full name is 'bating average on balls in play' and home runs (ground rule HR's, to be precise) are - well - out of the park.

But BABIP, the rating, determines weather a batted ball will or will not be a hit, any kind of hit, a then the other factors, such as POWER or GAP POWER, or lack thereof specify what kind of hit that would be.

It only makes sense that way; otherwise POWER would have been a part o the CONTACT equation, which is an indicator of player's AVG. And AVG stat doesnt acount for the types of hits, it just says the ball was hit and the batter riched the base safely.

So BABIP = raw no. of hits per batted ball/contact made

AVOID K's = no. of K's per PA

CONTACT = estimated AVG. Probably (AB's - K's)*BABIP(HIT RATE)

POWER = just raw HR power. In other words - no. of HR per hit; or HR RATE

in-game power or estimated no. of HR's is probably something like = AB*CONTACT*POWER

[Pelican]

With respect to Control, I have a question. Obviously it relates to walks, and the ability to throw strikes. But Control could also relate to the pitcher's ability to throw the ball where he wants. In other words, a pitcher with poor control should be more likely to throw a "fat" pitch that can be hit for distance. Such as leaving a ball out over the plate, or hanging a breaking pitch. Boom!

Apologies as this is anecdotal and not nailed down statistically. But I routinely use the pitch location/speed/type widget when playing out games. For sure, guys with poor Control walk more hitters. But I also see them leaving those "fat", hittable pitches in the strike zone. It's like a double-whammy, and makes Control a major consideration for me in handling pitchers.

IRL it is not unusual to see a pitcher struggling with control, walk a few guys, and then slow down in an effort to get better location, only to leave a pitch out over the plate with insufficient speed or movement. Or a guy who is wild and tries to "guide" his pitches, with disastrous results. Are we seeing some of this in OOTP, due to lousy Control? Or is that my fertile imagination?

One thing I know. When my pitcher is laboring and leaves a pitch out over the plate, and the batter hits it 400 feet just foul, I am pulling that guy. It may not be the OOTP game engine, but the universe is telling me my pitcher is an accident waiting to happen.

[fuzzy_patters]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

There was a deliberate move to uncouple power from contact this year. It definitely used to be the case that for a modern league, at least, Contact was an approximation of batting average whereas now it's really the "hit tool" and the "hit tool" alone. You're right; a guy with a 70 contact and 20 power will have a lower average, all other things being equal, than a guy with 70 and 50 in those ratings.

One issue I always had with that is that I think it led the AI to make poor decisions on players, particularly in historical contexts where there weren't as many HRs hit as there are today. Deadball AI will still do stuff like try to bat high Power guys cleanup, so it ain't perfect, but at least it'll see the total Contact-related value of high-average players from that era. To an extent people thought about baseball differently then; I do think, though, that IRL once power became a thing scouts separated power from contact even to this day and therefore that's the better way for the game to "think" about guys.

I play some dead ball era, too, and this gave me an idea. What if we changed the settings so that the teams evaluate players mostly by stats? Would the computer-controlled teams bat the slugging percentage leaders in the middle of order, which are going to be guys with high contact and high gap during that era rather than being guys with high power? That might make a little more sense.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by fuzzy_patters

I play some dead ball era, too, and this gave me an idea. What if we changed the settings so that the teams evaluate players mostly by stats? Would the computer-controlled teams bat the slugging percentage leaders in the middle of order, which are going to be guys with high contact and high gap during that era rather than being guys with high power? That might make a little more sense.

Or at the very least give us more control of the strategy of lineups. At least let us set the strategy. IE power being the deciding factor for cleanup or making it OBP.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by fuzzy_patters

I play some dead ball era, too, and this gave me an idea. What if we changed the settings so that the teams evaluate players mostly by stats? Would the computer-controlled teams bat the slugging percentage leaders in the middle of order, which are going to be guys with high contact and high gap during that era rather than being guys with high power? That might make a little more sense.

Putting the game on 0/67/22/11 does seem to help with this, although the game will use ratings wherever it doesn't have game generated stats so you shouldn't expect a lot of difference until you're a couple years in at least.