Player Development-How do statistics help?

Larryk007 · 12-03-2023, 03:00 PM

Development of a player has many influences, including budget, coaches and the player's natural development. But, if a player has a great statistical year does this have "any" development positive effect (or negative if a bad year)?

mytreds · 12-03-2023, 05:01 PM

All players have baked in development rates. Stats for any player are just a reflection of their ratings. A change in rating will change stats. A change in stats will not change rating. Bad and good years are affected by a setting (that I can’t recall of the top of my head) which randomizes (to a degree dependent on how high or low you set it) the variance of players ratings year to year.

Syd Thrift · 12-04-2023, 12:28 AM

Nah, there really isn't any rating that "randomizes whether you have a good year or not". That's strictly random chance: IIRC the standard deviation of batting average is about 25 points for a 550 at-bat season, which means that roughly 2/3rds of the time a .260 hitter will hit between .235 and .285. I know that's already a pretty wide split for people who think BA is inviolable but that also means that the other 3rd of the time, a player will hit either below .235 or above .285. And in about 5% of all cases that .260 hitter will hit above .310 or below .210. That may not sound like much but consider that basically a little less than every other team will have a lineup position perform that well or poorly based purely on random chance.

All that being said, player stats *do* impact development: if a guy is hitting or pitching poorly, probably because they've been promoted too aggressively, that will hurt their development. I believe that the opposite is also true: if a guy absolutely murders a league... well, IME that usually means he's pretty close to full unless he's like dominating low A ball, but if he has potential ratings left to fill, being in an environment like that will probably not help.

12-03-2023, 03:00 PM	#1
Larryk007 All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 580	Player Development-How do statistics help? Development of a player has many influences, including budget, coaches and the player's natural development. But, if a player has a great statistical year does this have "any" development positive effect (or negative if a bad year)?

12-03-2023, 05:01 PM	#2
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,184	All players have baked in development rates. Stats for any player are just a reflection of their ratings. A change in rating will change stats. A change in stats will not change rating. Bad and good years are affected by a setting (that I can’t recall of the top of my head) which randomizes (to a degree dependent on how high or low you set it) the variance of players ratings year to year. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.