2023-2024 NBA Season Thread

[rudel.dietrich]

No time to get this started like now.

I consider the draft the start of the new NBA year even though the official start date is not until July 1st.

The NBA draft is today and is one of my favorite days of the year and is also close to my birthday, so I always feel like it a gift to myself.

I have done more draft research this year than in previous years.

I have been falling on Brandon Miller the more I look into him.
And none of it has to do with off the court matters.
He has his upsides for sure as a shooter and scorer. But I question his athleticism and ability to finish around the rim.
He does not have the tightest handle, I also worry about him as a playmaker and his passing vision.
Finally I worry about his on ball defense.

All of these things should improve at the NBA level, but I am ready to die on the hill of Scoot Henderson being a better prospect than Miller.
Scoot for sure also has downsides.
He needs a lot of time in the gym working on his jumper.
His mid range shooting was actually pretty okay and he hit 76% of hit FTs
Usually FT shooting pre NBA shows shows that a player can improve their shot and the average to above average mid range game shows they can at least become a league average 3 point shooter.

Henderson already has a tight handle and good playmaking.
He does not have elite court vision like a Jokic, Harden or Lamelo Ball.
But he is a willing passer and his persistent penetration to the basket opens up kick outs or even wrap around passes to big men and cutters.

I could see him cutting down on the turn overs and reaching 7-8 APG one day.

And then we come to his athleticism, something that cannot really be taught. It can for sure be worked on at the NBA level and players can make offseason incremental improvements. But Henderson already has jaw dropping athleticism.
He is the most athletic guard in this class and perhaps the entire draft.
Wembanyama has some freaky athleticism for a person his size, but it translates in a different way.

So my top 2 draft picks would be Wembanyama and Henderson.
I hope Charlotte does the right thing.
I don’t think there is a 25 year old 5th year senior white guy they can take, so maybe they will.

I still have Miller at 3, but I would not take issue with other players over him.
I like the Thompson twins. Again, both are incredible athletes who have basketball skills that just need to be worked on and refined.
I would not take issue with either of them at 3.

Beyond that, I really like Taylor Hendricks and Anthony Black.
Hendricks is a bit versatile. His size is more of a wing, but in small lineups he play at the four or even center. He has some interior defense and shot rim protections chops.
He also has the footwork to where he is not totally lost on the perimeter.
His offensive game seems to involve around the pick and roll, which works fine since the NBA offensive is based around the pick and roll.
He can either do a pick or pop or he has the athleticism to roll to the basket and finish.
We have not seen him as the ball handler in the pick and roll very much at UCF or high school, but I am sure NBA teams at some point will want to try him at it.
He had a good all around freshmen year at UCF. Bit UCF played a pretty weak schedule.
This does always mean it does not project to the NBA level.
We have seen players like Curry, Lillard and McCollum play and recently Jalen Willams play at the mid major level and succeed at the NBA level.

I hope Hendricks falls to the Wizards.

Anthony Black may be the best pure PG in this draft. He is the classic floor general who makes his teammates better.
He is also a plus defender.
His scoring is for sure a question. He did not have a lot of shooting around him at Arkansas so he had to create off the dribble a lot.
He is an okay catch and shoot scorer.
His FT % was also an issue which may mean that he never develops much as a shooter.
But his low 60s in HS was 70% 5.3 attempts per game at Arkansas. So maybe he is already improving his shooting touch.



Does anyone else have any draft thoughts before tonight?
Take everything I say with a grain of salt. I am by no means a professional scout and and I have been so wrong on so many players.

But it is fun to try and put yourself into the head of a front office role and see how players pan out.

[Cobra Mgr]

Hornets will probably go Miller. But I think Henderson is better. Prob is Charlotte's most promising player already plays PG. So Miller "fits" better. To me, I think when you are picking this early & have been this bad for this long in a smaller market, you get the best players you can & worry about fit later. Players can always be traded. Right now, Melo has played 3 seasons & gotten hurt twice. His brother got hurt & looks to have ended his career. You might be ahead of the curve if you trade him to someone missing a point in their playoff mix.

I'm sure everyone is aware of the C's trade for Porzingis & 1st round pick this year & next. Memphis receives Smart. Wizards get multiple filler players.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Hornets will probably go Miller. But I think Henderson is better. Prob is Charlotte's most promising player already plays PG. So Miller "fits" better. To me, I think when you are picking this early & have been this bad for this long in a smaller market, you get the best players you can & worry about fit later. Players can always be traded. Right now, Melo has played 3 seasons & gotten hurt twice. His brother got hurt & looks to have ended his career. You might be ahead of the curve if you trade him to someone missing a point in their playoff mix.

I'm sure everyone is aware of the C's trade for Porzingis & 1st round pick this year & next. Memphis receives Smart. Wizards get multiple filler players.

I agree when you draft this high. You don’t draft for. You draft for talent.
I do not agree that Ball and Henderson cannot fit together.
Lamelo can play off the ball and is a good catch and shoot player.
Having one elite playmaker and one good playmaker is not a bad
thing.
And it would be a great change of pace. Henderson when you want to go fast and get out on the break. LaMelo when you want to go half court

Lamelo does have health concerns regarding his ankles.
And he has learned some bad habits playing in Charlotte.
But I still like him as a player. He is a good shooter and elite passer with too 5 court vision.
Curry had ankle problems too and worked to get them resolved.
I hope LaMelo can do the same

Charlotte needs to nail this pick. Their franchise is in danger of being moved and they need talent everywhere.
I would take Henderson and worry work him into what they have.
Then see if they can get anything of value for Hayward or Rozier.

Lamel, Henderson, and Mark Williams are not a bad start.
You need a whole lot more. But Charlotte has been in the wilderness for a long time.
I hope they get this right. I have a soft spot for them.

[Déjà Bru]

Speaking of Scoot, here's an up-close-and-personal:

A Teen Basketball Star Took His Time Growing Up for the N.B.A.



Gift article; available 14 days; does not count toward your allotment of free articles.

[damientheomen3]

Would've loved for the original deal to go through and the Clippers to get Brogdon.

I don't keep up too much on NBA discourse but to my knowledge it seems one camp is really sad to see Smart leave the Celtics and the other has wanted them to trade him for a little while. As someone who hated the Celtics but came to respect and enjoy this iteration of the team because I love how they've built themselves, I'm part of the first camp. Feels a little bit like they traded their heart and soul but that's the business.

[Cobra Mgr]

Smart is another Draymond Greene. Doesn't mind doing anything to win. Doesn't mind saying anything to win. That stirs admiration & adversity w/opponent & teammate alike.

[Marinersfan51]

It's going to feel so weird seeing Marcus Smart not in a Celtics jersey. That said, he definitely feels like a Grizz type player. With Dillon Brooks on the way out Smart will slide right into that role of trash talking defender who thinks he is a way better offensive player than he actually is.

[Syd Thrift]

I mean, even if Lamelo and Henderson can’t play together, you draft the best player available and find out. Worst case scenario, maybe you have to trade Ball in a couple years.

[Cobra Mgr]

I've got a friend always making up some kind of phony sports news. So I didn't believe him when he said CP3 was going to the Dubs for Jordan Poole & some picks. Turns out it is more than true.

[thehef]

I don't normally pay much attention to this stuff, but I couldn't help but notice that with the first three picks of the draft, the clothing went from curious to silly to flat-out absurd... Is Tyler Herro consulting?

EDIT: Looks like the Thompson brothers are breaking the streak, each outfitted in a relatively understated (for the NBA) suit; one in white and one in black.

[Cobra Mgr]

I hate the way NBA has followed the GS trend. The Dubs way works when you have the pieces to make it work. It's the most fun style to watch for my $. But everyone can't play that way. Denver showed the big man is still useful. It's nice to have versatile players who can man & defend multiple positions. But Jokic can't defend crap & is the consensus best in the league right now. It should be just as important to have players w/definitive skills & immeasurable heart.

This goes for baseball too: Teams need to stop trying to do what everybody else is doing & concentrate on doing what they do best & improving what they do least.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

I hate the way NBA has followed the GS trend. The Dubs way works when you have the pieces to make it work. It's the most fun style to watch for my $. But everyone can't play that way. Denver showed the big man is still useful. It's nice to have versatile players who can man & defend multiple positions. But Jokic can't defend crap & is the consensus best in the league right now. It should be just as important to have players w/definitive skills & immeasurable heart.

This goes for baseball too: Teams need to stop trying to do what everybody else is doing & concentrate on doing what they do best & improving what they do least.

That's why I'm hoping that the Miami Marlins and Luis Arraez continue win games. Same goes for Bo Bichette.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

I hate the way NBA has followed the GS trend. The Dubs way works when you have the pieces to make it work. It's the most fun style to watch for my $. But everyone can't play that way. Denver showed the big man is still useful. It's nice to have versatile players who can man & defend multiple positions. But Jokic can't defend crap & is the consensus best in the league right now. It should be just as important to have players w/definitive skills & immeasurable heart.

This goes for baseball too: Teams need to stop trying to do what everybody else is doing & concentrate on doing what they do best & improving what they do least.

I don’t know, I think that if anything the league would have recognized the value of the 3 pointer even earlier if it weren’t for Shaq. Now we’ve got a situation where, quite frankly, a lot of the teams that go the other way don’t achieve. The NBA is always going to be a league with different approaches. But the 76ers just straight up can’t get deep into the playoffs and frankly a large part of it is that at some point they have to face teams who will pull Joel Embiid out of the post on defense and force him to guard perimeter players. And Embiid isn’t even necessarily that slow, it’s just, he’s a great old school rim protector who alters the game when teams try to drive on him but teams can completely negate that now in ways they weren’t back in the day.

Also, by and large the game is just plain punishing in terms of exploiting defensive mismatches, especially in the playoffs. One thing about Jokic there: he may not be a top rated defender but he’s not unplayable slow against 3 shooting big men and he’s not terrible in the post against bulkier guys. You have a player with a big weakness, teams will just plain hit that weakness again and again and again until you figure out a counter or pull them out of the game. That’s not so much Warriors basketball, that’s just the ruthless modern NBA.

Finally, as with all sports the majority of coaches play less to win and more to not get fired. Right now the emphasis is on smaller ball and perimeter ply opening up lanes for isos, and most shots coming from 3 feet or outside the arc. If you’re going to zig when the league is zagging, you’d better win or else you’ll find yourself out of a job. And frankly this is a time, too, when the data indicate that with the exception of a very small number of players, you really shouldn’t be shooting midrange shots, and even the old game of running the offense through a big man in the high post only seems to work with, like, one guy (Jokic; Embiid is more of a guy you deliver the ball to in the low post and Giannis is notably a guy who wants and gets the ball all over the court). So, unlike, for instance, NFL head coaches refusing to do never-punt strategies because they’ll get canned the first time they lose a game by giving up the ball on 4th and 5 on their own 30, the route most coaches are going right now appears to be the one supported by stats.

I’m sure the game will continue to evolve and I’m even more sure that it will evolve in a way that older fans will hate.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

....................

You make some good points. It takes bravery to go against the grain.

But that is my problem. They think some of these successful teams have stumbled on the magic button and they haven't. They are just good at maximizng what they have.

Magic & Bird entered the league & then every one wanted a 6'8' or taller PG. They were just skilled for their size. It's nice to have someone that tall to set the offense, but people w/that ability are rarest of the rare. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Jordan's early years they kept saying they needed a center. That's why the Bulls got Bill Cartwright & sent Oakley to the Knicks. Anyone think Cartwright got the Bulls over the hump? Course not, Jordan & the Bulls proved you don;t need a dominant center. Especially the 2nd 3peat. They did it w/versatile defenders. Jordan, Pip, Rodman & Harper could guard 4 positions. Kukoc 3. But everyone can't get 4 elite defenders like that on one team. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Then GS comes w/their 3 point barage.. Cause they didn't have an inside presence. But how are you going to get 2 guards who are a threat to hit 10 3's any given night? That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Same for Jokic. He hit a great percentage of 3's in the playoffs. But that isn't his normal game. He didn't average 1 3 per game. He made his points around the rim like traditional big men. He just has added range that takes him from normal to superstar cause he is that much harder to guard. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly. You aren't going to find more Jokics out there.

Versatility is always better. But it isn't always feasible. I see the draft and I see players getting picked on their potential to be interchangeable, but not showing particular skill in anything as of yet They have the 6'6'-9" height aren't stiff and once made a 3 pointer in a game so they get picked. But you got guys with real skills going unwanted like Oscar Tshiebwe, Drew Timme, Adam Flagler & Terquavion Smith. You're not going to find, Bird, Magic, Jordan, Curry or Joker. No one knew those type of players existed until they were kicking @$$ everywhere. Get guys who play the part, not just look the part.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

You make some good points. It takes bravery to go against the grain.

But that is my problem. They think some of these successful teams have stumbled on the magic button and they haven't. They are just good at maximizng what they have.

Magic & Bird entered the league & then every one wanted a 6'8' or taller PG. They were just skilled for their size. It's nice to have someone that tall to set the offense, but people w/that ability are rarest of the rare. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Jordan's early years they kept saying they needed a center. That's why the Bulls got Bill Cartwright & sent Oakley to the Knicks. Anyone think Cartwright got the Bulls over the hump? Course not, Jordan & the Bulls proved you don;t need a dominant center. Especially the 2nd 3peat. They did it w/versatile defenders. Jordan, Pip, Rodman & Harper could guard 4 positions. Kukoc 3. But everyone can't get 4 elite defenders like that on one team. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Then GS comes w/their 3 point barage.. Cause they didn't have an inside presence. But how are you going to get 2 guards who are a threat to hit 10 3's any given night? That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly.

Same for Jokic. He hit a great percentage of 3's in the playoffs. But that isn't his normal game. He didn't average 1 3 per game. He made his points around the rim like traditional big men. He just has added range that takes him from normal to superstar cause he is that much harder to guard. That's not a blueprint. That's an anomaly. You aren't going to find more Jokics out there.

Versatility is always better. But it isn't always feasible. I see the draft and I see players getting picked on their potential to be interchangeable, but not showing particular skill in anything as of yet They have the 6'6'-9" height aren't stiff and once made a 3 pointer in a game so they get picked. But you got guys with real skills going unwanted like Oscar Tshiebwe, Drew Timme, Adam Flagler & Terquavion Smith. You're not going to find, Bird, Magic, Jordan, Curry or Joker. No one knew those type of players existed until they were kicking @$$ everywhere. Get guys who play the part, not just look the part.

So..is Wemby another one of those anomalies? I have also heard the word "unicorn" tossed about.

[Syd Thrift]

Zion was supposed to be as well…

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

So..is Wemby another one of those anomalies? I have also heard the word "unicorn" tossed about.

If he turns out to be what they say he will be, yeah. He is Ralph Sampson w/better guard skills. You're not going to get a run of 7foot SG's

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Zion was supposed to be as well…

A larger Charles Barkley w/more explosiveness. How many of those are we going to see?

Point I was making is everybody can't play like everybody else. When Phil Jackson was successful everyone wanted to run the triangle. Triangle was successful cause he had Jordan running it, & then Shaq & Kobe. The key wasn't the style of play. It was the unique players.

You have to get the best players you can & then try to set them up in the best system for them that you can.

That was the secret to "Billy Ball". The metrics helped him hit on it. But the idea was getting the best he could. To find value. Not find what everybody else had.

Timme is a bad defender. But he plays with heart, desires to win, is a team player, finds ways to be effective & has a terrific IQ. That's a guy I want to give a chance. Tshiebwe gets 10 rebounds a game on his day off. Who can't use that? Did anyone see Markquis Nowell run Kansas State in the last tourney? This guy is from the Jason Kidd/Williams mold.

But who gets selected? Marquette's 4th best player. Michigan didn't make the tourney, yet had 2 players selected in the 1st 15. I mean, what are we doing here?

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

A larger Charles Barkley w/more explosiveness. How many of those are we going to see?

Point I was making is everybody can't play like everybody else. When Phil Jackson was successful everyone wanted to run the triangle. Triangle was successful cause he had Jordan running it, & then Shaq & Kobe. The key wasn't the style of play. It was the unique players.

You have to get the best players you can & then try to set them up in the best system for them that you can.

That was the secret to "Billy Ball". The metrics helped him hit on it. But the idea was getting the best he could. To find value. Not find what everybody else had.

Timme is a bad defender. But he plays with heart, desires to win, is a team player, finds ways to be effective & has a terrific IQ. That's a guy I want to give a chance. Tshiebwe gets 10 rebounds a game on his day off. Who can't use that? Did anyone see Markquis Nowell run Kansas State in the last tourney? This guy is from the Jason Kidd/Williams mold.

But who gets selected? Marquette's 4th best player. Michigan didn't make the tourney, yet had 2 players selected in the 1st 15. I mean, what are we doing here?

Everyone you mentioned has been signed to some kind of contract. They will have Summer League, training camp and the pre-season to show what they can do.
If they cannot make the roster from one of these opportunities. Then they can go the G-League as a two way player and continue to try and impress their way onto a roster.


The Heat had several undrafted players contribute last season.
If they have enough talent and some kind of skill set, then chances are they will see NBA playing time at some point.


I see what you are getting at. But I would counter that there is a history of drafting 22 or 23 year old 4 or 5 year seniors in the draft and…it is not good.
Very few of them succeed in any meaningful way.

I am not wishing failure on any player, but I can see the appeal of drafting a 19 year old that has potential and now gets the benefit of unlimited practice time and better coaching, over a 22 year old fourth year senior who many of reached their peak already.

Of course the draft is still a dice roll. I doubt anyone will ever 100% figure it out. But there is a reason a college senior has not been taken #1 since the year 2000 (in a very weak draft)
And that is that most of the time these kids show by age 18 or 19 if they ‘have it or not’

Of course there will be always be late bloomers and players that just never develop.
But for the most part I believe the league does a good job at identifying talent and sooner or later they get their NBA chance.

Is it perfect? Of course not, but I don’t think teams are actively not giving older prospects a chance just to prove a point.
Finding talent is super competitive. Made even more so with this new CBA. Teams are always looking for players who an help on the cheap, no matter the age.

A few of these UDFAs will hit, most will not.
Such is the nature of things.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

Everyone you mentioned has been signed to some kind of contract. They will have Summer League, training camp and the pre-season to show what they can do.
If they cannot make the roster from one of these opportunities. Then they can go the G-League as a two way player and continue to try and impress their way onto a roster.


The Heat had several undrafted players contribute last season.
If they have enough talent and some kind of skill set, then chances are they will see NBA playing time at some point.


I see what you are getting at. But I would counter that there is a history of drafting 22 or 23 year old 4 or 5 year seniors in the draft and…it is not good.
Very few of them succeed in any meaningful way.

I am not wishing failure on any player, but I can see the appeal of drafting a 19 year old that has potential and now gets the benefit of unlimited practice time and better coaching, over a 22 year old fourth year senior who many of reached their peak already.

Of course the draft is still a dice roll. I doubt anyone will ever 100% figure it out. But there is a reason a college senior has not been taken #1 since the year 2000 (in a very weak draft)
And that is that most of the time these kids show by age 18 or 19 if they ‘have it or not’

Of course there will be always be late bloomers and players that just never develop.
But for the most part I believe the league does a good job at identifying talent and sooner or later they get their NBA chance.

Is it perfect? Of course not, but I don’t think teams are actively not giving older prospects a chance just to prove a point.
Finding talent is super competitive. Made even more so with this new CBA. Teams are always looking for players who an help on the cheap, no matter the age.

A few of these UDFAs will hit, most will not.
Such is the nature of things.

It's not just age. They want players that fit the mold regardless of production. It's 6'6"-9" swingmen.