Edit base stealing success rate in league structure

[daves]

Where can I edit the success rate for stolen bases? Baseball is a game of inches and 3 inches were added to each base which is changing the analytics of the game. Success is clearly going to be higher.


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[Bluenoser]

League setup, Stats & AI - right hand side about 1/2 way down.

[daves]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

League setup, Stats & AI - right hand side about 1/2 way down.

Thanks


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[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by daves

Thanks


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Be very very very careful playing with league totals and the modifiers. You can very easily create some crazy results

[jeffw3000]

Originally Posted by daves

Where can I edit the success rate for stolen bases? Baseball is a game of inches and 3 inches were added to each base which is changing the analytics of the game. Success is clearly going to be higher.


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The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock. Players are heavily taking advantage of these rule changes. In the first 2 weeks of the season the success rate in 2022 was around .54. This year it was .757.

In 2021, AAA used the smaller bases first half of the season, and larger ones 2nd half. In the PCL, they stole .66 bases per game, and a success rate of 75%. In the second half they stole .61 per game, and a 75% success rate. The International League had stolen bases go from .76 with the smaller bases to .83 per game with the larger bases. The success rate went from 77% with the smaller bases to 76% with the larger bases.

The success rate is up a lot this year. You are seeing a lot of veteran guys like Andrew McCucthen really take advantage of the step off rule, and the clock. McCutchen has not stolen more than 10 bases since 2018, but he already has 3 steals on 4 tries this year.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock. Players are heavily taking advantage of these rule changes. In the first 2 weeks of the season the success rate in 2022 was around .54. This year it was .757.

In 2021, AAA used the smaller bases first half of the season, and larger ones 2nd half. In the PCL, they stole .66 bases per game, and a success rate of 75%. In the second half they stole .61 per game, and a 75% success rate. The International League had stolen bases go from .76 with the smaller bases to .83 per game with the larger bases. The success rate went from 77% with the smaller bases to 76% with the larger bases.

The success rate is up a lot this year. You are seeing a lot of veteran guys like Andrew McCucthen really take advantage of the step off rule, and the clock. McCutchen has not stolen more than 10 bases since 2018, but he already has 3 steals on 4 tries this year.

It'll be interesting how OOTP accounts for the throw over rule.

[koohead]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock. Players are heavily taking advantage of these rule changes. In the first 2 weeks of the season the success rate in 2022 was around .54. This year it was .757.

In 2021, AAA used the smaller bases first half of the season, and larger ones 2nd half. In the PCL, they stole .66 bases per game, and a success rate of 75%. In the second half they stole .61 per game, and a 75% success rate. The International League had stolen bases go from .76 with the smaller bases to .83 per game with the larger bases. The success rate went from 77% with the smaller bases to 76% with the larger bases.

The success rate is up a lot this year. You are seeing a lot of veteran guys like Andrew McCucthen really take advantage of the step off rule, and the clock. McCutchen has not stolen more than 10 bases since 2018, but he already has 3 steals on 4 tries this year.

thanks for sharing these data points

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

It'll be interesting how OOTP accounts for the throw over rule.

Won't it just be rolled into the attempts and success rate once enough data has come in?

Yes, they could add the actual limit (would prevent spamming the throw over) with a toggle, I guess, and then up the success rate if you throw over twice (if real life data supports that model). But how does that work in "single pitch mode"? Seems like it would be pretty easy to "game", just don't throw over at all and take your chances with the lower rates?

I'm not a game designer and maybe their thought process comes up with something that works? Two throw overs and the pitcher's hold rating is reduced by 1? I don't like that when I think of the P's that were great at picking guys off like Mulholland(sp?). With him having already thrown over twice he may be more dangerous, and may still throw over, risking a called ball, if the runner thinks he now has a big advantage and tries to get an extra step. It seems to me that tinkering too much adds complexity that maybe doesn't need to be there? If the hypothesis is that bigger bases result in more steals, better success rate, and more players beating throws to any base, except home won't all of those things be taken care of within the current engine, LT's, and LTM's?

Just my speculations, off the top of my head. Surely worth the paper I wrote them on.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock. Players are heavily taking advantage of these rule changes. In the first 2 weeks of the season the success rate in 2022 was around .54. This year it was .757.

In 2021, AAA used the smaller bases first half of the season, and larger ones 2nd half. In the PCL, they stole .66 bases per game, and a success rate of 75%. In the second half they stole .61 per game, and a 75% success rate. The International League had stolen bases go from .76 with the smaller bases to .83 per game with the larger bases. The success rate went from 77% with the smaller bases to 76% with the larger bases.

The success rate is up a lot this year. You are seeing a lot of veteran guys like Andrew McCucthen really take advantage of the step off rule, and the clock. McCutchen has not stolen more than 10 bases since 2018, but he already has 3 steals on 4 tries this year.

Originally Posted by koohead

thanks for sharing these data points

Adding my thanks

[kq76]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock.

I agree. I think the size of the bases has next to nothing to do with the increase in SBs. I don't even think the throw over limit has much to do with it. The pitch clock, however, surely does. MLB Network's Chris Young and Dan Plesac talked about this the other day.

EDIT: I should say I also think part of it is, just with all the talk about it, more players are trying it and more teams are allowing their players to try it. It's one thing for the league to test things in the minors, it's another for MLB teams to test it themselves in the majors. I'm not so sure we're going to continue to see these #s a year or two from now, but I hope we do.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by kq76

I agree. I think the size of the bases has next to nothing to do with the increase in SBs. I don't even think the throw over limit has much to do with it. The pitch clock, however, surely does. MLB Network's Chris Young and Dan Plesac talked about this the other day.

EDIT: I should say I also think part of it is, just with all the talk about it, more players are trying it and more teams are allowing their players to try it. It's one thing for the league to test things in the minors, it's another for MLB teams to test it themselves in the majors. I'm not so sure we're going to continue to see these #s a year or two from now, but I hope we do.

All good points and why OOTP shouldn't speculate on results, rather they should wait and see how it actually works out.


I also hope these trends continue.

[daves]

I wonder what the affect is on infield singles with bigger bases?

[Simul Justus et Peccator]

What is a good setting for increasing the stolen base rate? My speedsters are getting caught a lot. The current ratings are below.

[LansdowneSt]

See the historical baserunning stats for the league under "Baserunning" on this baseball-reference tracker of the impact of the new rules. That percent you have looks fine.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/f...es-stats.shtml