Babip...

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 12:43 PM

Need some opinions here. I apologize for the long post, but I want to make sure to give all the details. I am 111 games into season 2 right now. I manage the games and my problem is, I feel like offense in my league is way out of whack between season 1 and season 2

Right now 111 games into season 2, the league wide BABIP is .324. I know there are still 50 games left to play and it could regress, but right now .324 is the highest BABIP in league history --- by a mile.

For comparison, season 1 BABIP was .287. Granted, that's a little lower than league norm but it's not historically out of line,,, like .324 is.

All of the other offensive stats, batting average, on-base, slugging, etc. are in-line with what you typically see. A little on the high end, but still in-line. Teams are averaging 4.79 runs per game in season 2. Again, it's high but not completely out of your mind high. For record, season 1 was 4.34 runs per game..... The specific team I manage is even higher than the league average in all of those stat groupings as well (babip, runs per game, etc.) which is probably why it really "feels" so out of whack to me. My average runs scored in season 2 is 5.6 for me, 5.1 for opponents. The BABIP that I'm allowing is .347. This is way out of the norm it feels like.

Anyways though. Here is the giant wild card. On opening day of season 2, I ran the league modifier option that people have suggested. I ran it on opening day, before the first game. I did not run it during spring training. This was the first time in all of my years of OOTP that I ever ran that option. Previously, I always just went with whatever the default setting was. I never tampered with it. If the default setting was to run it automatically, than it ran automatically without me knowing. If the default was to not run at all, than it didnt run at all. This was the first time I ever manually ran the option.

So then I begin playing season 2 and right out of the gates the offensive numbers are completely insane. To give an idea, in the month of April (first full month of the season) the average final score to a game that I managed was 6.2 to 5.1 and there were 19 hits per game being averaged.

Whether it was right or wrong, I was blaming it all on the league modifier. My fear was season 1 came in a little low on offense, so to bounce back they were going to make season2 just a total slugfest. So at some point a month or two into season 2, I decide to go to League Settings --> Stats & AI and hit "restore defaults" down on the bottom right side. My thought was this would take everything back to the way it was at the start of season 1 (season 1 had .287 babip and 4.34 runs per game)..... whether I fixed anything or not, or if I made more problems in doing this - who knows. As I look at league stats from month to month, it doesn't look like "restore defaults" did much of anything to be honest.

So, let's just assume that things stay where they are at and that I end season #2 with a league wide .324 BABIP (again, this breaks all MLB records by a mile) and other offensive statistics that are very much on the higher end of the spectrum as well, though not AS obnoxiously out of line as BABIP....... What's my next move to return to the curve a little bit for season 3? I don't know if this helps at all, but here's a photo of my current settings. Again, I did "restore defaults" at some point a month or two into season 2 and then after restoring defaults I manually tweaked starting pitcher stamina a bit. But everything else is whatever popped up upon restoring defaults. I don't want to manipulate too much, I want the game to progress naturally. But I also don't want to see a BABIP of .350 and all the the offensive stats that are currently high, climb even higher to break all offensive records..... So to kind of move back to the pack a little bit --- what's everyone's suggestion for me in between season 2 and season 3? What do I tweak? What modifier do I run? Or do I shutup and leave it as is because the game will self adjust?

Syd Thrift · 07-22-2022, 01:11 PM

Generally speaking if you want to keep league totals within the realm of historical or current league averages, you need to have the game recalculate modifiers before each season for accuracy. What happened here is… there’s not really a way to tell off hand but maybe you’ve got several hitters’ parks, or the game just happened to generate / give boosts to BABIP, or some combination plus luck. Updating the LTMs can help to combat all of those effects except of course for luck, although it’s ideally something you want the game to do itself, as it auto-plays an entire season 3 times and re-adjusts the LTMs after each replay.

Even though you have the box checked, the LTMs didn’t adjust. They wouldn’t be all 1.000 if they adjusted,

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Generally speaking if you want to keep league totals within the realm of historical or current league averages, you need to have the game recalculate modifiers before each season for accuracy. What happened here is… there’s not really a way to tell off hand but maybe you’ve got several hitters’ parks, or the game just happened to generate / give boosts to BABIP, or some combination plus luck. Updating the LTMs can help to combat all of those effects except of course for luck, although it’s ideally something you want the game to do itself, as it auto-plays an entire season 3 times and re-adjusts the LTMs after each replay.

Even though you have the box checked, the LTMs didn’t adjust. They wouldn’t be all 1.000 if they adjusted,

I defaulted everything after seeing how out of whack certain things were. That's why it brought everything back to 1.000. But just simply keeping that exact same box checked and then not touching anything at all would automatically allow OOTP to play the following season out 3x and adjust accordingly completely on its own doing without me needing to touch anything?

(sorry for what might be remedial questions - any tampering with these settings is completely foreign to me though. that's why I thought I screwed something up when certain stats seemed out of line)

Syd Thrift · 07-22-2022, 01:21 PM

It should do so, yes. I haven’t played a “future” league in a long time but I believe that if you have that box checked and the league is past <current year> it will go off the last year where stats are available.

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 01:36 PM

So being that 2023 is the season that I'm currently playing and the season with the big offensive output that I'd like to trend away from, would I maybe want to change "Historical Year ____" (top left) to something other than 2023 before it next auto-calculates? Maybe change it to 2022 or 2021?

Otherwise, wouldn't it modify things based on that 2023 season, which IMO has been too "hitter friendly."

Rain King · 07-22-2022, 01:45 PM

When you played your 1st season, you had likely adjusted the League Modifiers at some point.

"Default" sets the modifiers at 1.000, so before any League Total Modifiers had been set at all (so this would likely be different than what you had for Season 1).

Unfortunately, it is going to be difficult for us to say what happened between Season 1 and Season 2.

However, I do want to point out one assumption you seem to be making which is incorrect. The modifiers do not adjust based on the previous season's stats (i.e your "bounce back" comment). They adjust based on a simulation of your league on the date you had the game adjust the modifiers.

If I had to guess, I would bet you adjusted the modifiers at different times in Season 1 and Season 2 and that is what caused your large discrepancy. You really only want to adjust the modifiers on Opening Day because "simulation" to create those modifiers are going to use the team lineups that are set up on that day. So, if you do this in the off-season or during Spring Training it is going to base the adjustments on unrealistic rosters for your league.

Rain King · 07-22-2022, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

So being that 2023 is the season that I'm currently playing and the season with the big offensive output that I'd like to trend away from, would I maybe want to change "Historical Year ____" (top left) to something other than 2023 before it next auto-calculates? Maybe change it to 2022 or 2021?

Otherwise, wouldn't it modify things based on that 2023 season, which IMO has been too "hitter friendly."

That setting is trying to pull in League Totals from historical years. There isn't a 2023 season, so that setting isn't really doing anything for your game. Everything just stays at the League Totals from when your game was created.

If you have a specific MLB season's stats that you want to emulate you would choose that year and then going forward use "Lock League Totals" so it doesn't adjust from year-to-year.

The game is never pulling your "actual" League Totals in this area.

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

When you played your 1st season, you had likely adjusted the League Modifiers at some point.

"Default" sets the modifiers at 1.000, so before any League Total Modifiers had been set at all (so this would likely be different than what you had for Season 1).

Unfortunately, it is going to be difficult for us to say what happened between Season 1 and Season 2.

However, I do want to point out one assumption you seem to be making which is incorrect. The modifiers do not adjust based on the previous season's stats (i.e your "bounce back" comment). They adjust based on a simulation of your league on the date you had the game adjust the modifiers.

If I had to guess, I would bet you adjusted the modifiers at different times in Season 1 and Season 2 and that is what caused your large discrepancy. You really only want to adjust the modifiers on Opening Day because "simulation" to create those modifiers are going to use the team lineups that are set up on that day. So, if you do this in the off-season or during Spring Training it is going to base the adjustments on unrealistic rosters for your league.

I definitely didn't touch any modifier in season 1. The only adjustment I made in season 1 was to the starting pitcher stamina. Nothing else was touched. 100% certainty on that.

I did manually run the league modifier on opening day of season 2..... and then a month or so into season 2, when I saw the offensive numbers really jumping, I did the "restore defaults" option and again manually adjusted starting pitcher stamina after that.

Since I'm new to the modifier and don't completely understand everything about it just yet, the one thing I'm really wanting to avoid is for this .324 BABIP to become the new norm and as the league adjusts from that point forward it just shifts into an obnoxious amount of offense.... If I'm understanding you correctly though, what I fear happening isn't the way the modifier works from what you're saying?

Maybe the BABIP is just a freak thing this year, although breaking previous league records by 20+ points seems insane. But given that it's such a huge outlier - I am just wanting to do everything in my power to avoid OOTP making any future calculations based on my 2023 offensive numbers...... I don't want to be seeing a BABIP of .500 by the year 2026, ya know?

If my best option here is leaving everything alone and allowing the game to automatically adjust by leaving that check box checked, that's exactly what I'll do.

slugga27 · 07-22-2022, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

I definitely didn't touch any modifier in season 1. The only adjustment I made in season 1 was to the starting pitcher stamina. Nothing else was touched. 100% certainty on that.

I did manually run the league modifier on opening day of season 2..... and then a month or so into season 2, when I saw the offensive numbers really jumping, I did the "restore defaults" option and again manually adjusted starting pitcher stamina after that.

Since I'm new to the modifier and don't completely understand everything about it just yet, the one thing I'm really wanting to avoid is for this .324 BABIP to become the new norm and as the league adjusts from that point forward it just shifts into an obnoxious amount of offense.... If I'm understanding you correctly though, what I fear happening isn't the way the modifier works from what you're saying?

Maybe the BABIP is just a freak thing this year, although breaking previous league records by 20+ points seems insane. But given that it's such a huge outlier - I am just wanting to do everything in my power to avoid OOTP making any future calculations based on my 2023 offensive numbers...... I don't want to be seeing a BABIP of .500 by the year 2026, ya know?

If my best option here is leaving everything alone and allowing the game to automatically adjust by leaving that check box checked, that's exactly what I'll do.

I posted a similar thread last year and running auto-calc on Opening Day each year, as was suggested, solved the BABIP problem. Check my post history; I’d link it but I’m away from my computer right now.

Edit: I had an more recent thread on this, too, that wasn’t specific to BABIP. Please check that out as well.

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md40022 · 07-22-2022, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

I posted a similar thread last year and running auto-calc on Opening Day each year, as was suggested, solved the BABIP problem. Check my post history; I’d link it but I’m away from my computer right now.

Edit: I had an more recent thread on this, too, that wasn’t specific to BABIP. Please check that out as well.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My man! Thanks for this. I was able to find this thread, I'm assuming it's the one you are referencing... https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...ighlight=babip

The thread kind of dies off after you mentioned you tried running auto-calc manually for a 3 season period and it got BABIP back to normal..... to confirm, as you moved forward even past that period of 3 seasons, a manual auto-calc on opening day kept BABIP relatively "in line" with where it should be?

And the one question I have, I see it was suggested that you run auto-calc for minor leagues and international leagues as well. How exactly do you do that? I was under the impression it was a universal thing?

slugga27 · 07-22-2022, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

My man! Thanks for this. I was able to find this thread, I'm assuming it's the one you are referencing... https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...ighlight=babip

The thread kind of dies off after you mentioned you tried running auto-calc manually for a 3 season period and it got BABIP back to normal..... to confirm, as you moved forward even past that period of 3 seasons, a manual auto-calc on opening day kept BABIP relatively "in line" with where it should be?

And the one question I have, I see it was suggested that you run auto-calc for minor leagues and international leagues as well. How exactly do you do that? I was under the impression it was a universal thing?

That’s the one. It did hold up over time.

To run auto-calc for your other leagues, you just change the league in the top-right of the stats&AI screen and then hit the auto-calc button from there.

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md40022 · 07-22-2022, 04:56 PM

Thank you. This is super helpful. I do have to get a little bit of clarification from you real quick though.....

In that thread from last year, you asked if you should check both "Lock League Totals" and also "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy" and someone responded to you by saying yes.....

So to confirm....
1. you have BOTH of those check box options checked?
2. you still manually run auto-calc on opening day, even with both boxes checked off?

Sorry for the annoying questions - I just dont want to get a week into season#3 and realize I did something wrong.

slugga27 · 07-22-2022, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

Thank you. This is super helpful. I do have to get a little bit of clarification from you real quick though.....

In that thread from last year, you asked if you should check both "Lock League Totals" and also "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy" and someone responded to you by saying yes.....

So to confirm....
1. you have BOTH of those check box options checked?
2. you still manually run auto-calc on opening day, even with both boxes checked off?

Sorry for the annoying questions - I just dont want to get a week into season#3 and realize I did something wrong.

I haven’t done testing with both boxes checked yet, but I will be doing so this weekend. Last year, I just manually ran auto-calc and that worked well.

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Rain King · 07-22-2022, 05:24 PM

The "Lock League Totals" is only really relevant if you are playing fictional historical.

Basically, if you are playing fictional historical you can choose either to have the game pull in the "real" MLB league totals each year or to "Lock" the League Totals you have a that moment.

When playing into the future (i.e. past 2022 on in OOTP23) there aren't any "real" league totals to import so whether you check that box won't technically matter.

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

I haven’t done testing with both boxes checked yet, but I will be doing so this weekend. Last year, I just manually ran auto-calc and that worked well.

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If that's what has worked for you with the exact same BABIP problem, than I am going to 100% follow suite.

So zero boxes checked in that little section, and manually run on opening day.

md40022 · 07-22-2022, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

The "Lock League Totals" is only really relevant if you are playing fictional historical.

Basically, if you are playing fictional historical you can choose either to have the game pull in the "real" MLB league totals each year or to "Lock" the League Totals you have a that moment.

When playing into the future (i.e. past 2022 on in OOTP23) there aren't any "real" league totals to import so whether you check that box won't technically matter.

Great. Thank you guys, both.

This "problem" had me sweating a little bit. I'm feeling a lot more reassured now.

bwiese3908 · 07-22-2022, 05:32 PM

So i have a follow up question on this... If you are playing with league evolution on, won't checking both of those boxes not allow the league to "evolve" with lowering or raising the mound?

Is there a way to keep stats in line but still have evolution of the league happen?

Rain King · 07-22-2022, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bwiese3908

So i have a follow up question on this... If you are playing with league evolution on, won't checking both of those boxes not allow the league to "evolve" with lowering or raising the mound?

Is there a way to keep stats in line but still have evolution of the league happen?

I always turn league evolution off, so do not know the answer to this (regarding the evolution possibilities that directly affect League Stats).

slugga27 · 07-22-2022, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

Great. Thank you guys, both.

This "problem" had me sweating a little bit. I'm feeling a lot more reassured now.

Totally get it. I was in the same boat last year.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jcard · 07-22-2022, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

The "Lock League Totals" is only really relevant if you are playing fictional historical.

Basically, if you are playing fictional historical you can choose either to have the game pull in the "real" MLB league totals each year or to "Lock" the League Totals you have a that moment.

When playing into the future (i.e. past 2022 on in OOTP23) there aren't any "real" league totals to import so whether you check that box won't technically matter.

To confirm, then:
1) A current season QS is in effect considered a historical game as you move into the future, with the league totals remaining static year-to-year because there are (obviously) no historical season totals to pull as you move forward?
2) Even if it were considered a non-historical fictional league, it is NOT the case that non-historical fictional leagues import the most recently completed fictional season totals to serve as the base league totals for the upcoming season? I was unsure how to read the following excerpt from the online manual, specifically if in the last sentence the *most recently completed major league season* was referring to the real-life MLB or instead to whatever is the highest league in that fictional game (note that the text used a lower-case / generic format for citing the league, though that could very well mean nothing):

[Â… OOTP generates a league total for each category, noted in the left column. The league total acts as the basis for the calculation engine. In historical leagues, these are the real league totals from the imported year. In fictional leagues it's the major league totals from the most recently completed season.]

07-22-2022, 12:43 PM	#1
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Babip...(edit: Developer Input Needed) Need some opinions here. I apologize for the long post, but I want to make sure to give all the details. I am 111 games into season 2 right now. I manage the games and my problem is, I feel like offense in my league is way out of whack between season 1 and season 2 Right now 111 games into season 2, the league wide BABIP is .324. I know there are still 50 games left to play and it could regress, but right now .324 is the highest BABIP in league history --- by a mile. For comparison, season 1 BABIP was .287. Granted, that's a little lower than league norm but it's not historically out of line,,, like .324 is. All of the other offensive stats, batting average, on-base, slugging, etc. are in-line with what you typically see. A little on the high end, but still in-line. Teams are averaging 4.79 runs per game in season 2. Again, it's high but not completely out of your mind high. For record, season 1 was 4.34 runs per game..... The specific team I manage is even higher than the league average in all of those stat groupings as well (babip, runs per game, etc.) which is probably why it really "feels" so out of whack to me. My average runs scored in season 2 is 5.6 for me, 5.1 for opponents. The BABIP that I'm allowing is .347. This is way out of the norm it feels like. Anyways though. Here is the giant wild card. On opening day of season 2, I ran the league modifier option that people have suggested. I ran it on opening day, before the first game. I did not run it during spring training. This was the first time in all of my years of OOTP that I ever ran that option. Previously, I always just went with whatever the default setting was. I never tampered with it. If the default setting was to run it automatically, than it ran automatically without me knowing. If the default was to not run at all, than it didnt run at all. This was the first time I ever manually ran the option. So then I begin playing season 2 and right out of the gates the offensive numbers are completely insane. To give an idea, in the month of April (first full month of the season) the average final score to a game that I managed was 6.2 to 5.1 and there were 19 hits per game being averaged. Whether it was right or wrong, I was blaming it all on the league modifier. My fear was season 1 came in a little low on offense, so to bounce back they were going to make season2 just a total slugfest. So at some point a month or two into season 2, I decide to go to League Settings --> Stats & AI and hit "restore defaults" down on the bottom right side. My thought was this would take everything back to the way it was at the start of season 1 (season 1 had .287 babip and 4.34 runs per game)..... whether I fixed anything or not, or if I made more problems in doing this - who knows. As I look at league stats from month to month, it doesn't look like "restore defaults" did much of anything to be honest. So, let's just assume that things stay where they are at and that I end season #2 with a league wide .324 BABIP (again, this breaks all MLB records by a mile) and other offensive statistics that are very much on the higher end of the spectrum as well, though not AS obnoxiously out of line as BABIP....... What's my next move to return to the curve a little bit for season 3? I don't know if this helps at all, but here's a photo of my current settings. Again, I did "restore defaults" at some point a month or two into season 2 and then after restoring defaults I manually tweaked starting pitcher stamina a bit. But everything else is whatever popped up upon restoring defaults. I don't want to manipulate too much, I want the game to progress naturally. But I also don't want to see a BABIP of .350 and all the the offensive stats that are currently high, climb even higher to break all offensive records..... So to kind of move back to the pack a little bit --- what's everyone's suggestion for me in between season 2 and season 3? What do I tweak? What modifier do I run? Or do I shutup and leave it as is because the game will self adjust? Attached Images Last edited by md40022; 07-24-2022 at 12:34 PM.

07-22-2022, 01:45 PM	#6
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,120 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	When you played your 1st season, you had likely adjusted the League Modifiers at some point. "Default" sets the modifiers at 1.000, so before any League Total Modifiers had been set at all (so this would likely be different than what you had for Season 1). Unfortunately, it is going to be difficult for us to say what happened between Season 1 and Season 2. However, I do want to point out one assumption you seem to be making which is incorrect. The modifiers do not adjust based on the previous season's stats (i.e your "bounce back" comment). They adjust based on a simulation of your league on the date you had the game adjust the modifiers. If I had to guess, I would bet you adjusted the modifiers at different times in Season 1 and Season 2 and that is what caused your large discrepancy. You really only want to adjust the modifiers on Opening Day because "simulation" to create those modifiers are going to use the team lineups that are set up on that day. So, if you do this in the off-season or during Spring Training it is going to base the adjustments on unrealistic rosters for your league. Last edited by Rain King; 07-22-2022 at 01:46 PM.

07-22-2022, 01:36 PM	#5
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	So being that 2023 is the season that I'm currently playing and the season with the big offensive output that I'd like to trend away from, would I maybe want to change "Historical Year ____" (top left) to something other than 2023 before it next auto-calculates? Maybe change it to 2022 or 2021? Otherwise, wouldn't it modify things based on that 2023 season, which IMO has been too "hitter friendly."

07-22-2022, 04:56 PM	#12
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Thank you. This is super helpful. I do have to get a little bit of clarification from you real quick though..... In that thread from last year, you asked if you should check both "Lock League Totals" and also "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy" and someone responded to you by saying yes..... So to confirm.... 1. you have BOTH of those check box options checked? 2. you still manually run auto-calc on opening day, even with both boxes checked off? Sorry for the annoying questions - I just dont want to get a week into season#3 and realize I did something wrong.

07-22-2022, 05:24 PM	#14
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,120 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	The "Lock League Totals" is only really relevant if you are playing fictional historical. Basically, if you are playing fictional historical you can choose either to have the game pull in the "real" MLB league totals each year or to "Lock" the League Totals you have a that moment. When playing into the future (i.e. past 2022 on in OOTP23) there aren't any "real" league totals to import so whether you check that box won't technically matter.

07-22-2022, 05:32 PM	#17
bwiese3908 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 145	So i have a follow up question on this... If you are playing with league evolution on, won't checking both of those boxes not allow the league to "evolve" with lowering or raising the mound? Is there a way to keep stats in line but still have evolution of the league happen?