Cold Slumps Majors vs Minors

[md40022]

This is a situation that I ran into numerous times in OOTP22. I'm curious if anyone has encountered it yet in 23 or if it has been addressed in 23....


I manage the MLB games and sim the minor league games.... Had a player who was really slumping bad on the MLB team. He had the "cold" icon. Because he was young and had option years left, I sent him to the minors. Eventually he got reallllllly hot in the minors. 4 or 5 game stretch where he was getting multiple hits every game. Great, he's out of his slump, right? So I bring him back up to the MLB roster and he still has him "cold" icon?!?!


This probably happened 3 or 4 times for me in 22. All with either fringe MLB talent guys, or really young prospects. They'd hit a slump on the MLB team, I'd send them down to the minors and keep an eye on them. Eventually they seemed to break out of the slump and get hot, but I bring them back up to the big team and that cold icon remains.



I get that hitting the cover off the ball at AAA doesn't promise anything at the MLB level, but you'd think going on a tear at AAA would at least shake the cold slump, no?

[MathBandit]

A 'cold streak' or 'hot streak' tells you what the player did in the past, and nothing about what the player will do in their next game(s).

[BusterKing]

Originally Posted by md40022

This is a situation that I ran into numerous times in OOTP22. I'm curious if anyone has encountered it yet in 23 or if it has been addressed in 23....


I manage the MLB games and sim the minor league games.... Had a player who was really slumping bad on the MLB team. He had the "cold" icon. Because he was young and had option years left, I sent him to the minors. Eventually he got reallllllly hot in the minors. 4 or 5 game stretch where he was getting multiple hits every game. Great, he's out of his slump, right? So I bring him back up to the MLB roster and he still has him "cold" icon?!?!


This probably happened 3 or 4 times for me in 22. All with either fringe MLB talent guys, or really young prospects. They'd hit a slump on the MLB team, I'd send them down to the minors and keep an eye on them. Eventually they seemed to break out of the slump and get hot, but I bring them back up to the big team and that cold icon remains.



I get that hitting the cover off the ball at AAA doesn't promise anything at the MLB level, but you'd think going on a tear at AAA would at least shake the cold slump, no?

It's the same and it's the right way of having it. The streaks are in relation to the accomplishment in the MLB so when they come back it picks up where they left off. Same with hot streaks.

So there's nothing to be addressed in 23.

[TuckerDuckson]

Yeah, I asked this same question back in 22 (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=327201)

I kinda surprises me this isn't a feature, I mean it could be abused but like this is what teams do in real life. A dude is slumping, they option them, they maybe tweak their swing with full playing them, change a pitch, get called up then do fine.

I mean, I understand hot and cold streaks don't really work like that, they give like minor unseen stat bumps based on performance, and are based on the league.

[Primary]

are we sure hot/cold streaks affect performance at all? Im under the impression that what MathBandit said is true and that the hot/cold icons only represent recent past performance.

[md40022]

I'm not sure how you can say there's nothing to be addressed with that. If a guy clearly breaks out of his funk after a demotion, how does he resume the funk as soon as called back up.... that seems off IMO. Not saying that the guy should be 'hot' when recalled, but to say he's still on the cold streak when he's had 10 hits in the last week at AAA is kind of weird.

And does anyone know for fact what Math said is accurate? Or is there is a small up tick or down tick in ratings when hot or cold

[md40022]

Okay so when I read the thread that Tucker posted it sounds like the streak, whether hot or cold, is started at random just based on the stats. Fine. Then once the hot/cold streak is recognized, there is a slight adjustment to ratings.... again, fine. Makes sense.

But to the point of the post.... If you go 0 for 20 for a stretch on the MLB, you are 'cold', of course. But then you go down to AAA, maybe remain cold for a bit, but then bust out of it with 10 hits in a 6 game span...... you get recalled and you're still 'cold' (with a slight down tick in ratings). Ehhh? Seems unusual.

[SirSaab]

I look at it like this: when, in 2021, Jered Kelenic couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and was sent down, only to return later and show signs of life, nobody “forgot” how bad he had been. In game terms, he got “hot” in the minors, but when he came back, he still had to perform for his MLB “cold icon” to be removed. (And now he has it right back again to start 2022 lol)

[dodger300]

The reason the cold icon remains is because his latest MLB stats show he is in a slump. Hot streaks and cold streaks remain subject to one league. So if a player is called up from AAA to MLB his hot streak would not follow him to the MLB, but if you sent back to AAA he would once again show he is on a hot streak at AAA level. So when you bring up a player from AAA who was cold last time he was in the MLB is still going to have an snow flake next to name regardless how he was playing at AAA level.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by dodger300

The reason the cold icon remains is because his latest MLB stats show he is in a slump. Hot streaks and cold streaks remain subject to one league. So if a player is called up from AAA to MLB his hot streak would not follow him to the MLB, but if you sent back to AAA he would once again show he is on a hot streak at AAA level. So when you bring up a player from AAA who was cold last time he was in the MLB is still going to have an snow flake next to name regardless how he was playing at AAA level.

I understand the concept of it. That's not what I'm debating.



The point I am trying to make is often times the 100% entire purpose of sending a struggling big leaguer down to the minors is to either regain lost confidence or to specifically FIX the reason that he's struggling. Maybe a hitter has a fundamental flaw in his swing that needs fixing. Maybe a pitcher needs to work on a new arm slot, or maybe a pitcher needs to work on not tipping pitches, or a fixing a hitch in his delivery.



So many times a guy is sent down to fix or work on one of those very specific things. And if that struggling pitcher seems to have corrected that hitch in his delivery, or corrected the grip on his slider, or whatever it might be because he's pitched 20 straight scoreless innings at AAA, for him to get recalled to the majors and instantaneously and pick up that exact some cold streak doesn't make much sense....... What, did he once again lose the grip on his slider the very second he put the big league uniform back on?



Sending guys down to the minors to "work out the kinks" is the exact purpose of sending guys down to the minors, lol..... for them to clearly work out the kinks, only to get recalled and have same exact kinks immediately affect them again seems extremely inaccurate to real life.



If a guy is simply not good enough to be a big leaguer, fine. The randomness of the stats and ratings playing out over time will absolutely reveal that. But to have ratings negatively affected by a cold slump that he clearly shed down at AAA is goofy. That's all.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by md40022

I understand the concept of it. That's not what I'm debating.



The point I am trying to make is often times the 100% entire purpose of sending a struggling big leaguer down to the minors is to either regain lost confidence or to specifically FIX the reason that he's struggling. Maybe a hitter has a fundamental flaw in his swing that needs fixing. Maybe a pitcher needs to work on a new arm slot, or maybe a pitcher needs to work on not tipping pitches, or a fixing a hitch in his delivery.



So many times a guy is sent down to fix or work on one of those very specific things. And if that struggling pitcher seems to have corrected that hitch in his delivery, or corrected the grip on his slider, or whatever it might be because he's pitched 20 straight scoreless innings at AAA, for him to get recalled to the majors and instantaneously and pick up that exact some cold streak doesn't make much sense....... What, did he once again lose the grip on his slider the very second he put the big league uniform back on?



Sending guys down to the minors to "work out the kinks" is the exact purpose of sending guys down to the minors, lol..... for them to clearly work out the kinks, only to get recalled and have same exact kinks immediately affect them again seems extremely inaccurate to real life.



If a guy is simply not good enough to be a big leaguer, fine. The randomness of the stats and ratings playing out over time will absolutely reveal that. But to have ratings negatively affected by a cold slump that he clearly shed down at AAA is goofy. That's all.

He didn't have a cold streak in AAA, he had it in the majors. So he was sent down to work stuff out and it seems to be working, in AAA he's tearing it up.

Now he's back in the majors - so now prove your cold streak is over and start hitting, then the snowflake will go away.

Just because you're on a hot streak at AAA doesn't mean you'll hit like that at ML. There's very few players who tear the cover off the ball at AAA and immediately upon call up do the same at ML.

[SirSaab]

Originally Posted by md40022

I understand the concept of it. That's not what I'm debating.



The point I am trying to make is often times the 100% entire purpose of sending a struggling big leaguer down to the minors is to either regain lost confidence or to specifically FIX the reason that he's struggling. Maybe a hitter has a fundamental flaw in his swing that needs fixing. Maybe a pitcher needs to work on a new arm slot, or maybe a pitcher needs to work on not tipping pitches, or a fixing a hitch in his delivery.



So many times a guy is sent down to fix or work on one of those very specific things. And if that struggling pitcher seems to have corrected that hitch in his delivery, or corrected the grip on his slider, or whatever it might be because he's pitched 20 straight scoreless innings at AAA, for him to get recalled to the majors and instantaneously and pick up that exact some cold streak doesn't make much sense....... What, did he once again lose the grip on his slider the very second he put the big league uniform back on?



Sending guys down to the minors to "work out the kinks" is the exact purpose of sending guys down to the minors, lol..... for them to clearly work out the kinks, only to get recalled and have same exact kinks immediately affect them again seems extremely inaccurate to real life.



If a guy is simply not good enough to be a big leaguer, fine. The randomness of the stats and ratings playing out over time will absolutely reveal that. But to have ratings negatively affected by a cold slump that he clearly shed down at AAA is goofy. That's all.

It’s not that goofy. As a Giants fan, just in my lifetime, I can think of several players off the top of my head who would struggle in MLB, destroy AAA, get called back, and IMMEDIATELY just suck. LOL

As far as established players, it’s pretty rare these days, other than rehab assignments, to see vets sent down to “work out kinks.” The investment is too large. Think Chris Davis, or more recently, Cody Bellinger. Madison Bumgarner in AZ comes to mind. This guys don’t go anywhere. They either improve, or they wear it, until their contract expires (or they get DFA’d like Upton, because apparently the Angels are immune to sunk cost fallacy in 2022 hahaha).

So what that leaves you with is the classic AAAA player, or the more rare guy for whom another run in the minors is JUST what he needed. The former is WAY more common than the latter. So no, IMO, not that goofy.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

He didn't have a cold streak in AAA, he had it in the majors. So he was sent down to work stuff out and it seems to be working, in AAA he's tearing it up.

Now he's back in the majors - so now prove your cold streak is over and start hitting, then the snowflake will go away.

Just because you're on a hot streak at AAA doesn't mean you'll hit like that at ML. There's very few players who tear the cover off the ball at AAA and immediately upon call up do the same at ML.

Not saying he should be 'hot' upon his return to MLB. But the snowflake should be gone.



On the thread that someone else posted that touched on this topic from last year, one of the devs said the ratings are affected by the snowflake.... so to your point of "prove the cold streak is over", if the attributes are still negatively affected any time the snowflake is present, then there is absolutely nothing to prove - you are still cold, it's not a debatable topic if the devs say as much. Even though you hit .500 at AAA for the past 50 at bats, you are still in fact being negatively affected by a cold slump lol.



Again, I'm not asking for the guy to be "hot" upon his return. Of course not. But at this point the guy's slump was literally a month ago and 100 at bats ago. And for the last 50 at bats over a 3 week period, he's been a .400 hitter....... his ratings should not overlook that last month only to still be negatively affected from something from a month ago.



Guys get sent down to "work the kinks out" and shake whatever funk they are in alllllllll the time in real life. And if they still dont produce when they get recalled due to the randomness of baseball, so be it.... but sending a guy down for 100 at bats, assuming that he performs well for those at bats, should shake the actual statistical disadvantage that he is at by having the cold icon next to his name.

[MathBandit]

I mean, if players are being given a statistical advantage (or disadvantage) by being on a Hot/Cold streak - and that's confirmed by the devs - then that's the bigger issue here. Is there a way to turn off that arcade nonsense and have the game actually simulate real baseball?

[md40022]

Originally Posted by SirSaab

It’s not that goofy. As a Giants fan, just in my lifetime, I can think of several players off the top of my head who would struggle in MLB, destroy AAA, get called back, and IMMEDIATELY just suck. LOL

As far as established players, it’s pretty rare these days, other than rehab assignments, to see vets sent down to “work out kinks.” The investment is too large. Think Chris Davis, or more recently, Cody Bellinger. Madison Bumgarner in AZ comes to mind. This guys don’t go anywhere. They either improve, or they wear it, until their contract expires (or they get DFA’d like Upton, because apparently the Angels are immune to sunk cost fallacy in 2022 hahaha).

So what that leaves you with is the classic AAAA player, or the more rare guy for whom another run in the minors is JUST what he needed. The former is WAY more common than the latter. So no, IMO, not that goofy.

I get what you're saying. As a Cubs fan, I'm way too familiar with the AAAA player haha. But using the Cubs as an example....


Kyle Schwarber got off to an abysmal start in 2017. Hitting below .200 for a huge chunk of the season. The expectation with him was that he was an MLB player and not a AAAA player, but he was young and struggling. Eventually he got sent to AAA for a while, and then came back (with a fresh slate - snowflake icon gone) and then performed well


Another Cub, Ian Happ, was the guy that I specifically had this issue with in 2022. Similar to Schwarber, he was considered an MLB guy and not a AAAA guy. Just a young player still trying to find his way. He was "cold" for a long time. Sent him to AAA. He eventually started hitting the hell out of the ball, brought him back literally a month after he was sent down aaaaaaaaand he's still having his ratings negatively affected from something that happened a month ago, even though he was hitting like Babe Ruth for the past 2 weeks.


I think that the AAAA guys that you're referring to will show us that they can't play regardless of any hot or cold icons. Once the sample size with those guys become big enough, their ratings will let their stats take form and they'll be back to riding the bus and staying at Motel 6 soon enough.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I mean, if players are being given a statistical advantage (or disadvantage) by being on a Hot/Cold streak - and that's confirmed by the devs - then that's the bigger issue here. Is there a way to turn off that arcade nonsense and have the game actually simulate real baseball?

You don't think when a guy is in a real life slump or real life hot streak that it's anything more than a statistical fluke?



I'm not saying you're wrong. It's just an interesting take.



I personally think when a guy gets really hot or really cold, while it just starts out as random baseball luck, I do think that their confidence and the mental end of it can really lock a guy in to perform better, or sabotage him if he's struggling... I kind of believe in real life upticks and downticks for that reason. Just my personal opinion.

[Pelican]

Not directly responding to the original question about sending a slumping player to AAA, but my usual reaction to the snowflake is to bench the player for a day, because that would likely happen IRL. I have no idea if that benching has any practical effect in OOTP. I doubt it. Clearly the snowflake is still there. But, and this is anecdotal, it seems like guys benefit from that day off. So, extrapolating, even though the snowflake remains after a productive AAA stint, I suspect the guy is on a clean slate, plus he has whatever those AAA numbers are worth in the algorithm. IRL you would send a player down to AAA to work on something. As deep as OOTP is, you really can’t capture that (e.g. dealing with breaking pitches, stop chasing balls out of the strike zone, shorten swing, move closer to the plate….). But there should be a plan for the AAA stint.

[SirSaab]

Originally Posted by md40022

I get what you're saying. As a Cubs fan, I'm way too familiar with the AAAA player haha. But using the Cubs as an example....


Kyle Schwarber got off to an abysmal start in 2017. Hitting below .200 for a huge chunk of the season. The expectation with him was that he was an MLB player and not a AAAA player, but he was young and struggling. Eventually he got sent to AAA for a while, and then came back (with a fresh slate - snowflake icon gone) and then performed well


Another Cub, Ian Happ, was the guy that I specifically had this issue with in 2022. Similar to Schwarber, he was considered an MLB guy and not a AAAA guy. Just a young player still trying to find his way. He was "cold" for a long time. Sent him to AAA. He eventually started hitting the hell out of the ball, brought him back literally a month after he was sent down aaaaaaaaand he's still having his ratings negatively affected from something that happened a month ago, even though he was hitting like Babe Ruth for the past 2 weeks.


I think that the AAAA guys that you're referring to will show us that they can't play regardless of any hot or cold icons. Once the sample size with those guys become big enough, their ratings will let their stats take form and they'll be back to riding the bus and staying at Motel 6 soon enough.

I swear to God, Ian Happ (IRL) has to be one of the most frustrating players if you’re a fan of his team. Condolences. Until he goes on one of his hot streaks. Then, screw you, man (for two weeks)! Hahahaha

Edit: If it was Happ you were specifically thinking of, sounds like the game is mirroring his IRL tendencies pretty well! LOL

[md40022]

Originally Posted by SirSaab

I swear to God, Ian Happ (IRL) has to be one of the most frustrating players if you’re a fan of his team. Condolences. Until he goes on one of his hot streaks. Then, screw you, man (for two weeks)! Hahahaha

Edit: If it was Happ you were specifically thinking of, sounds like the game is mirroring his IRL tendencies pretty well! LOL

The funny thing is, he was sold to the fans as a younger Ben Zobrist when the Cubs drafted him. Switch hitter, patient, takes his walks, plays multiple positions, etc. etc. etc. And with how his career has played out, that was the worst comparison that could have been made. He has been like the exact opposite of the super consistent, never swing & miss, plate disciplined Zobrist haha. That's baseball for ya.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I mean, if players are being given a statistical advantage (or disadvantage) by being on a Hot/Cold streak - and that's confirmed by the devs - then that's the bigger issue here. Is there a way to turn off that arcade nonsense and have the game actually simulate real baseball?

Real baseball players are significantly streakier than putting them into a SOM type game would suggest. In OOTP, even with the (small) bumps to guys on hot streaks and maluses to players on cold streaks, you still see signifiantly lower hitting streaks than you get IRL. I know there are outliers who've seen streaks of 55+ games in their league (which itself might be a unicorn) but I regularly sim 20+ years before starting new leagues and rarely if ever see a player even hit in 30 straight games.