4-0 First Inning Always Results in Loss?

001beardown · 12-06-2020, 08:17 AM

Hey all, in my online league currently in year 2022, around once a week or so we see a team jump out to a 4-0 first inning lead-- whether it's in the bottom or the top of the inning.

The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is. Has anyone else noticed this? Not sure if it's an OOTP 21-wide bug or just a quirk in this league.

luckymann · 12-06-2020, 08:40 AM

It certainly happens to me more than I'd like it to, but of course it goes both ways - plenty of times I get beat up in the early innings only for the opposition to burn their bats and start hitting with crazy straws, and we overtake them and win.

I also suspect there's some sort of psychological bias at play here. We remember these occurrences vividly because it's just about the most frustrating thing that happens in the game, which makes them seem more prevalent than they really are.

BirdWatcher · 12-06-2020, 09:02 AM

Um, no. Just, no.

RchW · 12-06-2020, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Um, no. Just, no.

Yep, this. My unmade here comment would have got me banned.

DustyElbows · 12-06-2020, 09:17 AM

"The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is"

Well, historically the winning percentage of a home team up 4-0 after the first inning is about 89%, so this actually sounds very realistic.

CBeisbol · 12-06-2020, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DustyElbows

"The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is"

Well, historically the winning percentage of a home team up 4-0 after the first inning is about 89%, so this actually sounds very realistic.

Except I think the OP is saying the team that scores 4 runs loses most of the time

eldur00 · 12-06-2020, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 001beardown

Hey all, in my online league currently in year 2022, around once a week or so we see a team jump out to a 4-0 first inning lead-- whether it's in the bottom or the top of the inning.

The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is. Has anyone else noticed this? Not sure if it's an OOTP 21-wide bug or just a quirk in this league.

I played a game last night where Terry Mulholland allowed 4 runs in the first against the Giants. I lost 7-1. I guess I should be safe to let my starters allow 4 runs in the first for my next 9 games then.

What you're seeing is confirmation bias. And more than likely, it's based on a minuscule sample size. Unless you have solid data to show, of course.

Questdog · 12-06-2020, 08:01 PM

My league is in May and and I went back and checked and teams are 8-1 this year when scoring 4 or more runs in the 1st. In the one loss, the team scored 5 in the top of the 1st, but gave up 11 in the bottom half of the inning and ended up losing, 23 to 16. That was the only game where both teams scored 4 or more in the 1st inning.

Westheim · 12-07-2020, 03:18 AM

No, it is not an auto-loss, but if my guys go up 3-0, 4-0 in the first inning, I always brace for impact.

Syd Thrift · 12-07-2020, 08:28 AM

I’ve found that it’s always a win when they start 4-0 but then I turn around three times in my chair and kiss the picture of Markus I have mounted on my wall.

CBeisbol · 12-07-2020, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I’ve found that it’s always a win when they start 4-0 but then I turn around three times in my chair and kiss the picture of Markus I have mounted on my wall.

Snark level appreciated

Dave Stieb II · 12-08-2020, 04:47 PM

In my current Minnesota Twins save, I just played three games vs the CWS on the weekend and found the timing of the results, posted below, a little ironic.In order: a four-run first and a loss; a four-run first and a win; CWS four-run first and a loss (win for my Twins).
I draw no conclusions from this, just thought it was timely. Name: 04. MAY 22. 4 RUNS IN 1ST AND LOSS..jpg
Views: 395
Size: 250.2 KB

Name: 04. MAY 22. 4 RUNS IN 1ST AND LOSS..jpg
Views: 395
Size: 250.2 KB

Name: 05. MAY 23. FOUR RUNS IN 1ST AND WON..jpg
Views: 399
Size: 235.8 KB

Name: 06, 4 RUNS IN 1ST AND WON..jpg
Views: 394
Size: 232.1 KB

12-06-2020, 08:17 AM	#1
001beardown Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: Bay Area, CA Posts: 25	4-0 First Inning Always Results in Loss? Hey all, in my online league currently in year 2022, around once a week or so we see a team jump out to a 4-0 first inning lead-- whether it's in the bottom or the top of the inning. The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is. Has anyone else noticed this? Not sure if it's an OOTP 21-wide bug or just a quirk in this league.

12-06-2020, 08:40 AM	#2
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 13,025	It certainly happens to me more than I'd like it to, but of course it goes both ways - plenty of times I get beat up in the early innings only for the opposition to burn their bats and start hitting with crazy straws, and we overtake them and win. I also suspect there's some sort of psychological bias at play here. We remember these occurrences vividly because it's just about the most frustrating thing that happens in the game, which makes them seem more prevalent than they really are. __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE GULF LEAGUE USBA

12-06-2020, 09:02 AM	#3
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,263	Um, no. Just, no. __________________ The Denver Brewers of the W.P. Kinsella League-- The fun starts here(1965-1971: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=289570 And continues here (1972-1976): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=300500 On we go (1977- 1979): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=314601 For ongoing and more random updates on the WPK:https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=325147, https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=330717

12-06-2020, 08:01 PM	#8
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	My league is in May and and I went back and checked and teams are 8-1 this year when scoring 4 or more runs in the 1st. In the one loss, the team scored 5 in the top of the 1st, but gave up 11 in the bottom half of the inning and ended up losing, 23 to 16. That was the only game where both teams scored 4 or more in the 1st inning. Last edited by Questdog; 12-06-2020 at 08:02 PM.

12-07-2020, 03:18 AM	#9
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 13,248	No, it is not an auto-loss, but if my guys go up 3-0, 4-0 in the first inning, I always brace for impact. __________________ Portland Raccoons, 90 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

12-06-2020, 09:17 AM	#5
DustyElbows Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 225	"The running joke is if you score four or more runs it's an automatic loss.. And I'd say 90% of the time it usually is" Well, historically the winning percentage of a home team up 4-0 after the first inning is about 89%, so this actually sounds very realistic.

12-08-2020, 04:47 PM	#12
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 664	In my current Minnesota Twins save, I just played three games vs the CWS on the weekend and found the timing of the results, posted below, a little ironic.In order: a four-run first and a loss; a four-run first and a win; CWS four-run first and a loss (win for my Twins). I draw no conclusions from this, just thought it was timely.