1987 Kent Hrbek

[ablobj]

So this morning I decided to manage the 1987 Twins in single season replay mode. I've been setting the lineups and starting pitcher for each game, then simming to the end. I'm up to game 54, and Kent Hrbek already has 30 HR. In real life, Herbie hit 34 for the season. Is this an Hrbekian glitch, am I the luckiest manager on Earth, or will he regress to the mean and be absolutely awful down the stretch? Anyone else have this happen?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ablobj

So this morning I decided to manage the 1987 Twins in single season replay mode. I've been setting the lineups and starting pitcher for each game, then simming to the end. I'm up to game 54, and Kent Hrbek already has 30 HR. In real life, Herbie hit 34 for the season. Is this an Hrbekian glitch, am I the luckiest manager on Earth, or will he regress to the mean and be absolutely awful down the stretch? Anyone else have this happen?

Probably lucky

Regressing to the mean doesn't mean he'll be awful down the stretch. It means he'll be Kent Hrbek down the stretch instead of Barry Bonds on steroi...instead of better than Barry Bonds.

Regression to the mean doesn't mean regressing to be terrible. It means regressing to the mean.

If I flip 5 heads in 5 coin flips, regression to the mean says I should expect 2 or 3 heads in the next 5 flips. Not 0

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Probably lucky

Regressing to the mean doesn't mean he'll be awful down the stretch. It means he'll be Kent Hrbek down the stretch instead of Barry Bonds on steroi...instead of better than Barry Bonds.

Regression to the mean doesn't mean regressing to be terrible. It means regressing to the mean.

If I flip 5 heads in 5 coin flips, regression to the mean says I should expect 2 or 3 heads in the next 5 flips. Not 0

Correct, poor choice of words on my part. I'm now up to 65 games, and he's only hit one in the last 11...plus, his BA has dropped from around .410 to around .370, so he's definitely coming back down to Earth. I've just never seen a guy reach 88% of his real life HR total in 33% of the season, so I was curious about it.

[Syd Thrift]

That *is* super rare, to the point that I’d probably have looked in the editor to make sure that Hrbek wasn’t rated a 250 in power or something. Anyway, if he hit 30 dingers in the first third of the season I’d expect him to hit in the low 50s for the year.

[Johnny Case]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Barry Bonds on steroi...instead of better than Barry Bonds.

Does it not matter to all you Barry-haters that -- even though he was being crucified across the media, tested and checked out in every way by MLB (including his bats) from 2004 through 2007 (when the vampire owners and Bud the Scumbag prevented the greatest player of his time from working) -- he still had these power numbers:

2004: ABs 373, HRs: 45
2005: 42/5
2006: 367/25
2007: 340/28

Total: ABs 1122, HRs: 103
ABs per HR: 10.9

And Harold Friggin' Baines is in the HOF??? (Career WAR 39, BB WAR 163)

[Syd Thrift]

“Did you guys know that after Bonds supposedly stopped using HGH and steroids, the gains he’d made from using them still existed?”

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Johnny Case

Does it not matter to all you Barry-haters that -- even though he was being crucified across the media, tested and checked out in every way by MLB (including his bats) from 2004 through 2007 (when the vampire owners and Bud the Scumbag prevented the greatest player of his time from working) -- he still had these power numbers:

2004: ABs 373, HRs: 45
2005: 42/5
2006: 367/25
2007: 340/28

Total: ABs 1122, HRs: 103
ABs per HR: 10.9

And Harold Friggin' Baines is in the HOF??? (Career WAR 39, BB WAR 163)

What are you talking about?

Is acknowledging that Bonds used steroids equal to being a Barry-hater?

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by syd thrift

that *is* super rare, to the point that i’d probably have looked in the editor to make sure that hrbek wasn’t rated a 250 in power or something. Anyway, if he hit 30 dingers in the first third of the season i’d expect him to hit in the low 50s for the year.

[ablobj]

Sorry, didn't realize the image would appear all blown up like that. His power vs RHP is 168.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ablobj

Sorry, didn't realize the image would appear all blown up like that. His power vs RHP is 168.

Looks normal

Just the power of random numbers it appears

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Looks normal

Just the power of random numbers it appears

Yeah, seems that way. Now 90 games into the season and he's got 37, so he's only hit 7 in the last 36 games.

[BaseballMan]

He may useful defensively.
I think he has a very high rating in pulling players off the bag.

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by BaseballMan

He may useful defensively.
I think he has a very high rating in pulling players off the bag.

He didn't develop that skill until 1991

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ablobj

So this morning I decided to manage the 1987 Twins in single season replay mode. I've been setting the lineups and starting pitcher for each game, then simming to the end. I'm up to game 54, and Kent Hrbek already has 30 HR. In real life, Herbie hit 34 for the season. Is this an Hrbekian glitch, am I the luckiest manager on Earth, or will he regress to the mean and be absolutely awful down the stretch? Anyone else have this happen?

That was a 90 HR pace

IRL he wad a 34 HR pace

After 1/3 of the season, he had 30. With 2/3 of the season remaining, we'd expect (30+((2/3)*34)) about 52 for the season.

Originally Posted by ablobj

Yeah, seems that way. Now 90 games into the season and he's got 37, so he's only hit 7 in the last 36 games.

7 HR in 36 games is a 32 HR pace. So, about his IRL numbers
And puts him on pace for (37+((34/162)*(162-90)))=52 home runs for the season.

[ablobj]

Final season stats

[ablobj]

The advanced stuff.

[CBeisbol]

Looks like your overall offense might have been inflated just a touch

But, big year for Hrbek (and my man, Greg Gagne)

[Syd Thrift]

Meh. Hrbek had a huge season but Gary Gaetti was off (other than with the HR power). Otherwise the biggest difference I see off-hand is that Tom Nieto and Tim Laudner weren't complete black holes that year as they were IRL. I guess Greg Gagne had a big year too (mostly he stayed healthy, it looks like).

[ablobj]

Mr. Beisbol and Mr. Thrift...Seems odd to me that Gagne's WAR was 7.2, while Hrbek's was 7.6...I assume that Gagne's defense was the reason?

[ablobj]

Hrbek's ZR was -3.1, while Gagne's was +49.0