Does performance lead to development?

[brian_msbc]

I have a 26 year old SP in the majors... he is a middle of the road SP but has been absolutely dominant all season (through 112 IP so far)...

Is there a chance that his ratings will eventually improve to match his performance or the other way around? I have a high scouting report so I think they are accurate.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

I have a 26 year old SP in the majors... he is a middle of the road SP but has been absolutely dominant all season (through 112 IP so far)...

Is there a chance that his ratings will eventually improve to match his performance or the other way around? I have a high scouting report so I think they are accurate.

He’s 26 years old his development as a players is pretty much done.


However, if you want him to be valued a little more based on his performance, you can adjust AI evaluation.

[Syd Thrift]

What do his peripherals look like? It's possible he's been hit-lucky, in which case there's not much to improve (and there are guys who put up excellent seasons being hit-lucky, like Jeff Ballard and Allan Anderson), but it's also possible that his individual ratings outdo his overall, either in your league or in general. If his K's are high or his walks and HRs are really, really low, you might just have a really good pitcher on your hands, ratings be damned...

[jimmysthebestcop]

Remember most players are 2.5 to 3 stars. These could be bench warmers to all stars.

That is where stats come into play. Ratings is just the scouts view. You only know what's real editing the player or playing 100% accuracy.

[Syd Thrift]

Hmm. Although you'd expect there to be a bell curve, I'm pretty sure that if you were to plot out all of the players in a full major league setup including all levels of minors, what you would see instead is the back half of that bell curve: the overwhelming majority of players have 1/2 or 1 star, with an incrementally smaller number of players at each successive star level.

At the major league level you might see more 2 1/2 to 3 star players but that's just due to the fact that all the lower rated guys are not good enough to be on anyone's 26 man roster.

[jimmysthebestcop]

Yeah I meant mlb players only not minor league guys.

[brian_msbc]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

What do his peripherals look like? It's possible he's been hit-lucky, in which case there's not much to improve (and there are guys who put up excellent seasons being hit-lucky, like Jeff Ballard and Allan Anderson), but it's also possible that his individual ratings outdo his overall, either in your league or in general. If his K's are high or his walks and HRs are really, really low, you might just have a really good pitcher on your hands, ratings be damned...

It’s Framber Valdez.

K/9 is 13.6, BB/9 is 3.4, Babip is .329, FIP is 3.18. In a 26 team league with global DH, a FIP of 3.18 is 2nd in the league only to Walker Buehler.

Ratings are 65/45/40... movement potential is 50.

I mean... just about every single start this year he just dominates. This is my first year so I don’t know if he is just getting really lucky or if I will see a ratings boost soon.

[Syd Thrift]

There’s been reports that K rates have been trending high so watch out for that. Aside from that, Movement is one of those things that can be really volatile: a guy doesn’t give up a lot of dingers until suddenly he does. Like I said, though, Stuff is one of those ratings where a guy might not be rated super high in it (I don’t play in modern leagues so I have no idea what his “card” looks like) but can still outperform the rating if his pitches are “right”.

Another issue I think for a starter is that if he’s consistently pulled in the 5th or 6th inning, if memory serves the effect of pitches beyond his first 2 or 3 is lessened until he faces hitters the 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup. If he never faces anyone more than twice and has, say, two plus pitches, he might actually just have really great Stuff until he gets pulled.

[brian_msbc]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

There’s been reports that K rates have been trending high so watch out for that. Aside from that, Movement is one of those things that can be really volatile: a guy doesn’t give up a lot of dingers until suddenly he does. Like I said, though, Stuff is one of those ratings where a guy might not be rated super high in it (I don’t play in modern leagues so I have no idea what his “card” looks like) but can still outperform the rating if his pitches are “right”.

Another issue I think for a starter is that if he’s consistently pulled in the 5th or 6th inning, if memory serves the effect of pitches beyond his first 2 or 3 is lessened until he faces hitters the 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup. If he never faces anyone more than twice and has, say, two plus pitches, he might actually just have really great Stuff until he gets pulled.

Hmm... so you should set a pitch count for good SP’s that don’t have a quality 4th pitch?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

It’s Framber Valdez.

K/9 is 13.6, BB/9 is 3.4, Babip is .329, FIP is 3.18. In a 26 team league with global DH, a FIP of 3.18 is 2nd in the league only to Walker Buehler.

Ratings are 65/45/40... movement potential is 50.

I mean... just about every single start this year he just dominates. This is my first year so I don’t know if he is just getting really lucky or if I will see a ratings boost soon.

And home runs?

As Syd said, that's a lot more volitile. Strikouts can be 300, walks maybe even 100, home runs 30 is a lot. So a variance of 5 home runs compared to K's or BB's is huge.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

Hmm... so you should set a pitch count for good SP’s that don’t have a quality 4th pitch?

Ideally you'd want to set a "batters faced count" but yeah, that's the kind of thing you can do (although I will say that starters with 3 excellent pitches can absolutely throw past the 6th - that would be more for the guys with 2 decent pitches and a "show me" slider or change).

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Remember most players are 2.5 to 3 stars. These could be bench warmers to all stars.

That is where stats come into play. Ratings is just the scouts view. You only know what's real editing the player or playing 100% accuracy.

can you please elaborate.
the rating must drive performance because you edit the ratings and performance will adjust accordingly.

this has always been a confusing topic for me....if a player consistently out performs his ratings, his ratings should go higher and not necessarily go back to the mean

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

can you please elaborate.
the rating must drive performance because you edit the ratings and performance will adjust accordingly.

Ratings are a peek at the player's underlying statistics that drive their performance.

Maybe, just for example, a player is projected for a .300 average. You don't see that .300 average. All you see is a 60 (or whatever) contact rating.

With stars, the range of each star rating is pretty big.

Just making up some numbers, a player with a 2 star rating for contact might have underlying batting average stats of, say, .230 to .260

So, if you have two players, and one is at the low end of all the 2 star ratings, and the other is at the high end, but not to a 2.5 star rating, the ratings will look alike, but you can expect a much different performance.

[Cynical]

Are you playing as the modern Astros, or did you get Valdez in a trade? The Astros have a middle infield that's great offensively but sub-par defensively, so "good stuff, bad other stats" pitchers tend to play well on that team; you want strikeouts, even if it means more home runs and walks, because you really can't trust Altuve or Correa when it comes to their gloves. In my game, he wasn't spectacular, and spent a lot of the year in AAA.