When do you make lineup changes?

[ripitback]

Just curious when everybody starts making changes. If hitters are not hitting and pitchers are getting rocked, do you makes changes after day 1, day 2 or just roll with the same lineup the entire week?

[stl jason]

assume you mean "day 1" and "day 2" as in Monday and Tuesday (and not game 1 / game 2 of the season)....


usually let my boys roll through their ups and downs for the whole season, unless someone is the ultimate picture of putrescence and demands to be benched... and even then, the earliest I can check in to the new season is typically 2-3 weeks into April, so soonest anyone gets pulled from the lineup would be after a month (day 1), but it's a rarity

[mess]

I've got a pretty short fuse on removing my pitchers from my roster. A couple bad starts and I'll swap em out for 3 weeks.

Have a few capable Silver and Gold pitchers that I like to move through.

[ripitback]

Yeah, I mean the day of the week. I wouldn't typically pull anyone until after Monday. The team is doing well, but I have some really awful hitting numbers. One player hitting under .100 and a few under .200.

[Orcin]

I start shuffling the lineup on Tuesday if warranted. I usually wait until Wednesday to take players out of the lineup or move them to the reserve roster. I have very little patience with my bullpen so I rotate it around almost daily (day of the week).

[Maddox]

Tuesday, if I have a suitable replacement for an under-performing player.

As a general rule though I don't make a lot of lineup changes. I try and trust that the players, given a chance will climb closer to their normal stats.

[zrog2000]

I cannot wrap my head around digital cards becoming hot and cold. Their ratings are their ratings and they should perform to their ratings given enough time. Any messing with that is just lucky if it works out. I honestly think that putting worse cards in because a better card is slumping just hurts your team in the long run. This is not like real baseball where there are nagging injuries, decline, and a loss of mechanics all of which leads to worse performance.

If anyone has any theories about there being a hidden hot/cold streak that alters future performance, I'm all ears. But just saying it's true isn't enough for me to believe it. I think the hot/cold tags are for recent past performance and has nothing to do with current and future. But maybe I'm wrong.

This is different than misjudging how a player might do against stiffer competition. I'm only talking about cards that you know should be better than they are doing.

[|ChelseaNS]

zrog I agree with you. The way I understand it the engine is always striving to hit set amounts for a season, say 5500 league home runs. If after a day the league is below 1/6 of that total then the engine will need to make them up and the main variable when making those calculations will be the ratings on the cards. Putting in a card with lesser ratings should only lessen your chances at making up the difference.


If the league is on track after a day and the stats are at 1/6 of total or close and your stats according to ratings are way off then maybe you got a bad variable for that season. I haven't seen anyone explain if the variable is attached to the card but we are seeing huge swings in perfect league cards season to season and the developers have mentioned variables. I guess it would make sense to apply it to the card, as in this season, upon generation of season your card received 8 percent penalty to Contact. That, is a different discussion though as it is technically different than a slump since it occurs for a season.


Thoughts?

[Zorro]

I change my lineup and rotation constantly. I have no patience to let them just mosey along. If they don’t produce they don’t play....

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by |ChelseaNS

If the league is on track after a day and the stats are at 1/6 of total or close and your stats according to ratings are way off then maybe you got a bad variable for that season. I haven't seen anyone explain if the variable is attached to the card but we are seeing huge swings in perfect league cards season to season and the developers have mentioned variables.

Thoughts?

The developers have never "mentioned variables" in the manner to which you refer, i.e. cards getting hit with a nerf stick before each season. Please try to stick to facts.

[Joshrapley]

I am glad someone asked as I was wondering the same thing! I have several hitters that are performing poorly against their supposed strong side and wondered if this was going to level out at some point but then how long do I wait?

I am currently 25-13 so dont want to rock the boat but some of my key hitters are under 100 OPS+ so far and I am tempted to shake up my line up.

[gosensgo101]

When I get a new player, or a player consistently under or over-performs their ratings for multiple seasons.

[Will_L]

Generally if a guy is doing really poorly after Tuesday then I'll pull him if I have a decent replacement. Did that last season with Lefty Grove who started 0-9 and replaced him with Sad Sam Jones who went 10-7 the rest of the way. Sometimes I'll buy some packs on Friday night if the race for a playoff spot is tight in hopes of a lucky pull, got Mookie Betts like that two seasons ago for one of my teams.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

If anyone has any theories about there being a hidden hot/cold streak that alters future performance, I'm all ears. But just saying it's true isn't enough for me to believe it. I think the hot/cold tags are for recent past performance and has nothing to do with current and future. But maybe I'm wrong.

Yes, the hot/cold tags are indicators of recent performance. We know this from the regular game. Sending a player down to the minors removes the tag and bringing him back restores the tag. He comes back to the majors and he is still hot or cold at that level based on the last time that he was there even if it is months later. If it were a predictor, then it would stay with the player when he goes down or no longer be there when he comes back up after a long period in the minors.

There is certainly a tendency for players to gravitate toward the performance indicated by their ratings. However, regression to the mean may take a long time. The slumps and hot streaks are RNG-related so their end cannot be predicted. It could be the next game and it could be the next season. The statistical engine does force the stats to end up at or near predetermined totals. However, that is league-wide, not player-by-player. There is nothing in the engine that forces a player to perform at the level indicated by his ratings. So your player may never perform at his ratings and another version of the same card may consistently perform above his ratings. That's not to say that one card is jinxed and another is blessed, but it is just pure random luck.

Any attempt to moderate or cure a cold streak by benching the player is just bowing to superstition. By that logic, you should just continue to play your best players. However, it is possible to "win" by betting against the streak ending soon and substituting a player who might be "rolling better dice". If you are right, it is pure luck, but it might feel better than doing nothing.

[Joshrapley]

Another quick question with lineups does the AI know to take advantage of multiple same handed batters in a row? From reading on here its advised to avoid this practice as allows a specialised Reliever to go through multiple batters before being taken out.

I have been trying to avoid this but unfortunately I have built a squad heavy on good RHB and proving difficult to mix up.

[Kushiel]

I have not made one the past 2 seasons. It is because I have a tight team and upgrades are few and very, very expensive. So it depends on your situation. In the beginning I changed early and often as I built my team to the level of having won a WS in Perfect League.. Good Luck!

[zrog2000]

I definitely change up my rotation based on my playoff opponents and ballparks. I like having Medina in the bullpen to sneak in there to start against an all RH lineup, which I have seen many of. His splits vs RHB are probably around top 10 for all pitchers. (113/63/76)

[Medici]

I make minor adjustments like lineup changes after the first day. A month is a small enough enough sample size for me to shift a player down in the lineup or change bullpen roles. By the end of day 2 and 3 I'll usually make the major adjustments like benching, relegating a starter to the bullpen by day 3, calling up reserve roster/ etc depending on the level of performance. With each growing sample size you obviously get a better feel of how things shake out.

I find that over the course of a week about 1/3 of my team will improve on their average performance, 1/3 will perform as expected, and 1/3 will suck. I try to identify as best I can where a card is falling into and adjust accordingly. This dynamic is what keeps it interesting to me and why you can't just sit back with a stacked lineup that performs consistently year. We can't all have dominating Mike Trouts. He may crush it for your one year only to completely suck the next year when it is his turn to be part of the 1/3 underachievers. My lineup is constantly tweaked from season to season as I try to manage the underachievers while playing to those having strong seasons.

[uschi_baerchen]

So, you are on pace for 107 wins, oh man, thanks god your best hitters are behind expectations, they would to rework their engine otherwise

[uschi_baerchen]

For the reasons stated by Orcin in his post of Yesterday, 04:36 PM I make adjustments only when I buy a new Player.