Just bought five packs

Hammercraft · 01-11-2019, 02:26 PM

Nothing higher than bronze. That sucks.

Maddox · 01-11-2019, 03:08 PM

Sucks, but expected given the odds.

whobob · 01-11-2019, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammercraft

Nothing higher than bronze. That sucks.

We need posts like these every once in a while. Usually we get posts about excited people who just won the lottery, one perfect, one historical gold, one live gold. Then we get stars in our eyes and think, "Maybe this next pack." The next pack's best card is Daniel Mengden, valued at 25 PP. Fast way to turn 1000 PP into 50 PP.

Westheim · 01-11-2019, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whobob

We need posts like these every once in a while. Usually we get posts about excited people who just won the lottery, one perfect, one historical gold, one live gold. Then we get stars in our eyes and think, "Maybe this next pack." The next pack's best card is Daniel Mengden, valued at 25 PP. Fast way to turn 1000 PP into 50 PP.

I disagree. Nobody needs those posts. Just like nobody is entitled to winning the lottery.

And yes, I have turned 1,000 PP into 50 PP already today.

Thalion · 01-11-2019, 03:52 PM

I specialize in those

CrazyWR · 01-11-2019, 04:26 PM

As someone in your league, I encourage you to continue this specialization

Orcin · 01-11-2019, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Westheim

And yes, I have turned 1,000 PP into 50 PP already today.

Me too.

Thalion · 01-11-2019, 04:27 PM

Hrmph!

JustBlazin · 01-11-2019, 04:41 PM

that's how most of my packs look like
I have opened about 170 packs with 3 of those being gold packs also have got about 6 regulars and 1 gold from challenge mode.
that's from 3 teams, 2 of which I spent money on $20 for one team and $10 on the other. here are my results for top three card types

Perfect-0...odds say I should have 1
Diamond-3...odds say I should have almost 7,and I haven't seen a diamond in 4 weeks exactly opening about 150 packs
Golds-29....odds say I should be at 20, so golds I am a bit ahead but 4 of my golds came from gold packs plus 3 guaranteed from starter packs
I didn't calculate silver

anyone else finding diamonds really hard to get?

xekyn92 · 01-11-2019, 07:05 PM

I opened a pack today too

https://imgur.com/a/3eBFJC4

In all seriousness, i've opened a LOT of packs and in the end it does tend to even out, the higher volume you open the more it'll trend towards the expected odds.

Sometimes whacky stuff like double diamond packs or a diamond + perfect will happen and sometimes you'll go 50-100 packs with nothing but the occasional gold. It's all luck so just keep plugging away, the pack gods favour noone.

SF Giants · 01-11-2019, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustBlazin

that's how most of my packs look like
I have opened about 170 packs with 3 of those being gold packs also have got about 6 regulars and 1 gold from challenge mode.
that's from 3 teams, 2 of which I spent money on $20 for one team and $10 on the other. here are my results for top three card types

Perfect-0...odds say I should have 1
Diamond-3...odds say I should have almost 7,and I haven't seen a diamond in 4 weeks exactly opening about 150 packs
Golds-29....odds say I should be at 20, so golds I am a bit ahead but 4 of my golds came from gold packs plus 3 guaranteed from starter packs
I didn't calculate silver

anyone else finding diamonds really hard to get?

I opened approx. 220 packs but no perfect card yet. I got 3 diamonds in my last 15-20 pack making it 9-10 in total. I also had a streak of 40-50 packs opened with almost no golden card (or better) but today I had three of them in two packs. It´s just random...

elutz31 · 01-11-2019, 10:56 PM

I have 3 teams, a main team and 2 themed teams. I spent a few bucks on the main team during the rookie league to try to get an early jump but the only card I managed was a Kris Bryant. It wasn't selling for much over minimum so I sold it for 4k on a quick sale and bought more packs. From there it started a frenzy. I pulled a Spud Chandler and Bert Blyleven from those 4 packs which I sold on the auction house within about an hour for about 100k pp combined. Figured I would buy more packs to test my luck and got a perfect Bonds, Dimaggio, Trout and Pedro in that batch. I tossed the Dimaggio card on the auction for a little over 100k and went pack shopping once again. I wasn't quite as lucky but did get a Sale, de Grom and another Dimaggio. At 1 point I was up to close to 400k in pp just from opening pack and selling off what I didn't want.

Over the past 6 seasons I've pulled a total of 20 perfect cards on that team. 6 de Grom, 5 Trout, 2 Betts, 2 Sale, 2 Dimaggio, 1 Bonds, 1 Pedro and 1 Bagwell. There have been stretches of 200-300 packs without a perfect card but overall its been well ahead of the 1/1000 change on that team.

On the flip side, my other 2 teams have been around just as long and I've never pulled a perfect card on either team.

As for the types of packs, if that makes a difference, I've opened about 5 or 6 25 pack bundles and have only once ever gotten a perfect card from them. I've never gotten a perfect card from a single pack. The 19 perfects were all gotten from the non-gold 5 pack bundles. I've never purchased gold packs as I'd much rather more chances to win.

Hammercraft · 01-12-2019, 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maddox

Sucks, but expected given the odds.

I understand, it's random, and I'm cool with that. But still...

cmon, man.... I paid 1000 for that?

TreMetal · 01-12-2019, 03:29 AM

Yes, you paid 1,000 for the chance of getting a gold+ which pays back for the pack (if not many times over), but generally you won't get that result and get the one you got. The odds are shown to you ahead of time though.

If you want to put your PP to better use take it to the AH and buy the cards off people wasting their PP on packs. Outside of the really expensive cards you can setup a pretty decent team just picking up the value Live cards (or the occasional slick deal on non-live cards).

bobbycockstrong · 01-12-2019, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammercraft

I understand, it's random, and I'm cool with that. But still...

cmon, man.... I paid 1000 for that?

You are paying for a scratch ticket. If everyone made more than what they spent on the scratch ticket, scratch tickets would not exist.

Most people lose, plenty of people break even or get a little more, and the rare few hit it big and thats why people keep playing scratch tickets (or buying packs). Hoping for that miracle.

When you open a pack, all you can truly expect is a single bronze card. Anything more and you are technically "winning".

stl jason · 01-12-2019, 09:06 AM

just went through my transaction log to see how many packs I've purchased for my pack-only team...

so far I've bought 45 packs and picked up 3 diamond players and 7 gold players (and probably a dozen or so silvers, some of those have been sold off so don't have an exact count); so actually not a bad return I guess.

of course, it doesn't seem like it when you open that single pack every couple days and get the iron quintet to go with that bronze card; but gotta look big picture (those 3 diamond players I pulled came in 3 consecutive packs so definitely no pattern to the drops).

zrog2000 · 01-12-2019, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammercraft

I understand, it's random, and I'm cool with that. But still...

cmon, man.... I paid 1000 for that?

I've probably spent about $100 on lottery tickets in the last year and only got about $4 back. That's exactly the same way you have to look at the card packs, but with much better odds.

Will_L · 01-12-2019, 11:32 PM

Have picked up 58 regular and 15 gold packs and have 15 golds, 2 diamonds and one perfect on one of my 3 ftp teams (Laurelton Corsairs in G343 currently). Best sales in AH were 54k for Mookie Betts and 7.2k for Ozzie Smith. Definitely beating the odds on diamond and perfect pulls.

01-11-2019, 02:26 PM	#1
Hammercraft All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 729	Just bought five packs Nothing higher than bronze. That sucks. __________________ *PT: Black River Brewers*

01-11-2019, 04:41 PM	#9
JustBlazin Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 51	that's how most of my packs look like I have opened about 170 packs with 3 of those being gold packs also have got about 6 regulars and 1 gold from challenge mode. that's from 3 teams, 2 of which I spent money on $20 for one team and $10 on the other. here are my results for top three card types Perfect-0...odds say I should have 1 Diamond-3...odds say I should have almost 7,and I haven't seen a diamond in 4 weeks exactly opening about 150 packs Golds-29....odds say I should be at 20, so golds I am a bit ahead but 4 of my golds came from gold packs plus 3 guaranteed from starter packs I didn't calculate silver anyone else finding diamonds really hard to get? Last edited by JustBlazin; 01-11-2019 at 04:47 PM.

01-11-2019, 07:05 PM	#10
xekyn92 Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 12	I opened a pack today too https://imgur.com/a/3eBFJC4 In all seriousness, i've opened a LOT of packs and in the end it does tend to even out, the higher volume you open the more it'll trend towards the expected odds. Sometimes whacky stuff like double diamond packs or a diamond + perfect will happen and sometimes you'll go 50-100 packs with nothing but the occasional gold. It's all luck so just keep plugging away, the pack gods favour noone. Last edited by xekyn92; 01-11-2019 at 07:06 PM.

01-12-2019, 09:06 AM	#16
stl jason Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 10,112	just went through my transaction log to see how many packs I've purchased for my pack-only team... so far I've bought 45 packs and picked up 3 diamond players and 7 gold players (and probably a dozen or so silvers, some of those have been sold off so don't have an exact count); so actually not a bad return I guess. of course, it doesn't seem like it when you open that single pack every couple days and get the iron quintet to go with that bronze card; but gotta look big picture (those 3 diamond players I pulled came in 3 consecutive packs so definitely no pattern to the drops). __________________ Beer League dynasty thread - knock 'em back!

01-12-2019, 11:32 PM	#18
Will_L All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Laurelton, NY Posts: 590	Have picked up 58 regular and 15 gold packs and have 15 golds, 2 diamonds and one perfect on one of my 3 ftp teams (Laurelton Corsairs in G343 currently). Best sales in AH were 54k for Mookie Betts and 7.2k for Ozzie Smith. Definitely beating the odds on diamond and perfect pulls. Last edited by Will_L; 01-12-2019 at 11:34 PM.

01-11-2019, 03:08 PM	#2
Maddox All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 903	Sucks, but expected given the odds.

01-11-2019, 03:52 PM	#5
Thalion Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 413	I specialize in those

01-11-2019, 04:26 PM	#6
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	As someone in your league, I encourage you to continue this specialization

01-11-2019, 04:27 PM	#8
Thalion Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 413	Hrmph!

01-11-2019, 10:56 PM	#12
elutz31 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 108	I have 3 teams, a main team and 2 themed teams. I spent a few bucks on the main team during the rookie league to try to get an early jump but the only card I managed was a Kris Bryant. It wasn't selling for much over minimum so I sold it for 4k on a quick sale and bought more packs. From there it started a frenzy. I pulled a Spud Chandler and Bert Blyleven from those 4 packs which I sold on the auction house within about an hour for about 100k pp combined. Figured I would buy more packs to test my luck and got a perfect Bonds, Dimaggio, Trout and Pedro in that batch. I tossed the Dimaggio card on the auction for a little over 100k and went pack shopping once again. I wasn't quite as lucky but did get a Sale, de Grom and another Dimaggio. At 1 point I was up to close to 400k in pp just from opening pack and selling off what I didn't want. Over the past 6 seasons I've pulled a total of 20 perfect cards on that team. 6 de Grom, 5 Trout, 2 Betts, 2 Sale, 2 Dimaggio, 1 Bonds, 1 Pedro and 1 Bagwell. There have been stretches of 200-300 packs without a perfect card but overall its been well ahead of the 1/1000 change on that team. On the flip side, my other 2 teams have been around just as long and I've never pulled a perfect card on either team. As for the types of packs, if that makes a difference, I've opened about 5 or 6 25 pack bundles and have only once ever gotten a perfect card from them. I've never gotten a perfect card from a single pack. The 19 perfects were all gotten from the non-gold 5 pack bundles. I've never purchased gold packs as I'd much rather more chances to win.

01-12-2019, 03:29 AM	#14
TreMetal Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 34	Yes, you paid 1,000 for the chance of getting a gold+ which pays back for the pack (if not many times over), but generally you won't get that result and get the one you got. The odds are shown to you ahead of time though. If you want to put your PP to better use take it to the AH and buy the cards off people wasting their PP on packs. Outside of the really expensive cards you can setup a pretty decent team just picking up the value Live cards (or the occasional slick deal on non-live cards).