The streakiness of this game feels artificial to me.

Len1950 · 12-06-2018, 06:49 PM

I have two teams, one in Bronze and one Entry Level.

The Entry Level team has had streaks of W6, W9, W4, W4, L6, W7, W10, and L5, which accounts for 51 or the 121 games. The team overall has about a 60% winning percentage, although obviously that fluctuates a lot depending on what kind of streak I'm in.

The Bronze Level Team has had streaks of W4, L6, L4, W6, L11, and W8, which accounts for 39 of their 93 games. The team has won about 45% of its games overall, again with lots of fluctuation.

Since day one I'm not doing any roster management, or indeed any management of any kind -- purposely now because I want to see how far this goes. It doesn't feel right, and I'm wondering if anyone else is noticing anomalies of this kind.

Zorro · 12-06-2018, 06:56 PM

Yes, I go on runs like that but I kind of like it. I will win 7 in a row and think I am king **** and then I lose the next 3 and come down to earth. It not only keeps me on my toes but also it makes it quite exciting. Plus I always feel like I can make a run when I need to. (Sometimes That feel turns into agony. Lol.)

chazzycat · 12-06-2018, 07:13 PM

I think this is kinda due to how we are still in the early stages of things. Teams are still getting promoted/relegated to their proper league. There can be a huge difference in talent between some teams in the same league, thanks to whales spending dough, smart players, and on the flip side some casual players who opened their packs then stopped playing. With such imbalance in talent, longer win/loss streaks seem inevitable. But they should come down over time.

Kushiel · 12-06-2018, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I think this is kinda due to how we are still in the early stages of things. Teams are still getting promoted/relegated to their proper league. There can be a huge difference in talent between some teams in the same league, thanks to whales spending dough, smart players, and on the flip side some casual players who opened their packs then stopped playing. With such imbalance in talent, longer win/loss streaks seem inevitable. But they should come down over time.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

Len1950 · 12-07-2018, 04:19 PM

Zorro said:

Quote:

Yes, I go on runs like that but I kind of like it. I will win 7 in a row and think I am king **** and then I lose the next 3 and come down to earth. It not only keeps me on my toes but also it makes it quite exciting.

I'm genuinely glad for you that you feel that way. But I've been feeling like a lab rat. Streaks are continuing, and I find myself thinking about the mathematics of it far more than the baseball. Went back to the regular game yesterday, trying to save the Mariners from themselves, and I felt far more fully immersed.

I'm still turning over in my mind whether I think it's just an artifact of the game not being fully settled out yet, as chazzykat suggests, or whether the game developers are throwing a hidden fudge factor into the visible player ratings when they sim the games, that randomly varies every few hours, to get people excited enough to buy points. I don't know what I believe.

Thanks for your responses; good luck and much pleasure to all of you who remain fully involved.

Kushiel · 12-07-2018, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Len1950

...I'm still turning over in my mind whether I think it's just an artifact of the game not being fully settled out yet, as chazzykat suggests, or whether the game developers are throwing a hidden fudge factor into the visible player ratings when they sim the games, that randomly varies every few hours, to get people excited enough to buy points. I don't know what I believe.

Some things can get frustrating in all games. However after playing the past few years, I just cannot see Markus and company pulling any cheap hustler tricks:
1. They have a successful model already.
2. Why jeopardize it for a few extra dollars.
3. Most importantly, From all their statements through the years and their actual concern shown for the quality of the experience, I believe they are more honorable than that.

Good Luck! Remember it is only a game

Len1950 · 12-07-2018, 08:18 PM

Just to be clear, I'm not attacking anyone's honor. They have a perfect right to throw randomizing elements into the game, if that's what they want to do, if that's what they are doing.

I too have played this game for several years, and the classic game continues to fascinate me. I will download OOTP20 the day it becomes available, and I can't wait until March.

Orcin · 12-07-2018, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Len1950

I'm still turning over in my mind whether I think it's just an artifact of the game not being fully settled out yet, as chazzykat suggests, or whether the game developers are throwing a hidden fudge factor into the visible player ratings when they sim the games, that randomly varies every few hours, to get people excited enough to buy points. I don't know what I believe.

I can help you figure this out. There is no pre-programmed outcome. There is no "hidden fudge factor". What happens is the same thing that happens in real baseball: teams play poorly for a stretch and their managers struggle to understand why and then they play over their heads for a while and their managers struggle to avoid taking credit for something that they had no control over. It's basically due to luck although the talent of your team, scheduling, and player streaks all play a role.

Bunktown Ballers · 12-07-2018, 08:46 PM

And to make things even clearer...You are dealing with Artificial Intelligence being used on a SIMULATION game. It's like this with every game ever made. There is NEVER 100% happiness & NEVER 100% FanBoydom..

BB
Louisiana Crawdads

Kushiel · 12-07-2018, 09:14 PM

And when you add it all together, it is just plain old fun!

vyshka · 12-07-2018, 11:46 PM

It can be a bummer when you go on a losing streak, but the feeling when you have a good run makes up for it. At that point it is "I'm Billy Beane and Earl Weaver!". Part of thee fun/challenge is trying to figure out what isnt working, and a lot of the times it really is just things going right for the other team. I'm always looking at the recaps and box scores of my games to see what happened.

Bunktown Ballers · 12-08-2018, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kushiel

And when you add it all together, it is just plain old fun!

And that's at the bare minimum I'm getting from PT. This is above & beyond anything I felt about this addition to OOTPB. Thanks DEVS.

BB
Louisiana Crawdads

Mat · 12-08-2018, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

I can help you figure this out. There is no pre-programmed outcome. There is no "hidden fudge factor". What happens is the same thing that happens in real baseball: teams play poorly for a stretch and their managers struggle to understand why and then they play over their heads for a while and their managers struggle to avoid taking credit for something that they had no control over. It's basically due to luck although the talent of your team, scheduling, and player streaks all play a role.

It amazes me you have to explain this.

Zorro · 12-08-2018, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat

It amazes me you have to explain this.

I think Len was just stating the feel of the game to him and wondering if we saw or felt it also. I don’t think he was trying to be negative or malicious just curious and wondered if something else was at play. I find myself in all these streaks also but I am just not smart enough to think of any mathematical equation just a high or low depending on weather I am winning or losing in them.

BigBen · 12-08-2018, 10:54 AM

I had a 23 W Strk for a nice 4,000 pts in Bronze Lvl

Zorro · 12-08-2018, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigBen

I had a 23 W Strk for a nice 4,000 pts in Bronze Lvl

Attachment 592163

And a nice 6 game lead. Nice job.....

Len1950 · 12-12-2018, 07:31 PM

Orcin's opinion didn't completely convince me at first because I don't know what it was based on, but I don't believe Lukas Berger would have thanked him if he hadn't hit on the right answer. So now I am convinced he's right. Thanks to everyone who wasn't miffed by my intellectual curiosity.

Bagpipes5 · 12-13-2018, 01:34 PM

I feel ya. I made the playoffs in Bronze league but in Silver league my team has been atrocious. It's July and 89 ovr rated Jose Altuve is slashing .219/.267/.312. It doesn't even make sense....

Zorro · 12-13-2018, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bagpipes5

I feel ya. I made the playoffs in Bronze league but in Silver league my team has been atrocious. It's July and 89 ovr rated Jose Altuve is slashing .219/.267/.312. It doesn't even make sense....

And they want to change the atributes next year on what the real players do. Like we even need that for variety. That is what does not make sense to me.

stl jason · 12-13-2018, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zorro

And they want to change the atributes next year on what the real players do. Like we even need that for variety. That is what does not make sense to me.

did a quick peek through the faq and didn't see anything touching on it; but I assume the sim engine on PT is the same/similar to how the game works in solo mode? If so, then what appears to be odd/streaky/etc performances actually does make sense....

if the sim engine is expecting to kick out a certain number of hits/doubles/triples/hrs/etc, and a league batting average of, say, .260; then even if you have an entire league of nothing but Ty Cobb in every batters slot, they can't *all* hit .400... for every Cobb that hits .400, there has to be an offsetting number of Cobb that only hits .125 to make the league average around .260

so when we start getting leagues that are packed with superstar laden teams, someone is going to have to under perform... just sucks when it's your guy(s)....

course I could be completely off base (someone feel free to correct me if that's the case)... either way, still enjoying the roller coaster ride with my struggling teams

12-06-2018, 06:49 PM	#1
Len1950 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2016 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 70	The streakiness of this game feels artificial to me. I have two teams, one in Bronze and one Entry Level. The Entry Level team has had streaks of W6, W9, W4, W4, L6, W7, W10, and L5, which accounts for 51 or the 121 games. The team overall has about a 60% winning percentage, although obviously that fluctuates a lot depending on what kind of streak I'm in. The Bronze Level Team has had streaks of W4, L6, L4, W6, L11, and W8, which accounts for 39 of their 93 games. The team has won about 45% of its games overall, again with lots of fluctuation. Since day one I'm not doing any roster management, or indeed any management of any kind -- purposely now because I want to see how far this goes. It doesn't feel right, and I'm wondering if anyone else is noticing anomalies of this kind.

12-06-2018, 06:56 PM	#2
Zorro Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 2,944	Yes, I go on runs like that but I kind of like it. I will win 7 in a row and think I am king **** and then I lose the next 3 and come down to earth. It not only keeps me on my toes but also it makes it quite exciting. Plus I always feel like I can make a run when I need to. (Sometimes That feel turns into agony. Lol.) Last edited by Zorro; 12-06-2018 at 06:58 PM.

12-07-2018, 09:14 PM	#10
Kushiel All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Deep in the Heart of Texas Posts: 1,810	And when you add it all together, it is just plain old fun! __________________ *Favente Deo supero*

12-06-2018, 07:13 PM	#3
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I think this is kinda due to how we are still in the early stages of things. Teams are still getting promoted/relegated to their proper league. There can be a huge difference in talent between some teams in the same league, thanks to whales spending dough, smart players, and on the flip side some casual players who opened their packs then stopped playing. With such imbalance in talent, longer win/loss streaks seem inevitable. But they should come down over time.

12-07-2018, 08:18 PM	#7
Len1950 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2016 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 70	Just to be clear, I'm not attacking anyone's honor. They have a perfect right to throw randomizing elements into the game, if that's what they want to do, if that's what they are doing. I too have played this game for several years, and the classic game continues to fascinate me. I will download OOTP20 the day it becomes available, and I can't wait until March.

12-07-2018, 08:46 PM	#9
Bunktown Ballers All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Louisiana Posts: 1,598 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	And to make things even clearer...You are dealing with Artificial Intelligence being used on a SIMULATION game. It's like this with every game ever made. There is NEVER 100% happiness & NEVER 100% FanBoydom.. BB Louisiana Crawdads

12-07-2018, 11:46 PM	#11
vyshka Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Chandler, AZ Posts: 393	It can be a bummer when you go on a losing streak, but the feeling when you have a good run makes up for it. At that point it is "I'm Billy Beane and Earl Weaver!". Part of thee fun/challenge is trying to figure out what isnt working, and a lot of the times it really is just things going right for the other team. I'm always looking at the recaps and box scores of my games to see what happened.

12-08-2018, 10:54 AM	#15
BigBen Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 98	I had a 23 W Strk for a nice 4,000 pts in Bronze Lvl

12-12-2018, 07:31 PM	#17
Len1950 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2016 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 70	Orcin's opinion didn't completely convince me at first because I don't know what it was based on, but I don't believe Lukas Berger would have thanked him if he hadn't hit on the right answer. So now I am convinced he's right. Thanks to everyone who wasn't miffed by my intellectual curiosity.

12-13-2018, 01:34 PM	#18
Bagpipes5 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: TX Posts: 467	I feel ya. I made the playoffs in Bronze league but in Silver league my team has been atrocious. It's July and 89 ovr rated Jose Altuve is slashing .219/.267/.312. It doesn't even make sense....