Long Term Contract = Lost of Skills?

thedokes · 12-12-2006, 09:04 PM

Anyone have a take on the effect on Performance when offering out a long term contract (4 years plus)? Is it always to diminish the skills a little quicker than if the contract was negotiated in separate terms (2-3 years)?

My case in point is Jose Reyes who now at the ripe old age of 25 is entering his fifth year of a contract. His Contact skills have gone from a solid 16 down to ten, his fielding has fallen off also. I know some of this is due to the player aging, and luck of the draw, however I’m wondering if it’s more a product of sitting on a contact for more than 4 years.

Raidergoo · 12-12-2006, 09:17 PM

I think this is anectdotal; along the lines of "a watched pot never boils".

I have successfully signed a few players to long term deals (4-7 yrs length), but I don't think any of them were older than 26 when I signed them.

ihatenames · 12-12-2006, 09:34 PM

I've had mixed success when signing long term deals. I've had a few players who stayed very good through the life of the contract. I've also had one pitcher and one catcher whom i signed to long term deals that nose died. The pitcher only had a year left when he nosed dived so it didn't hurt too much. But i have a catcher who is signed for 3 more years who is owed 11MM and change for those years. He is 31 now and i signed him to a 6 year deal. He went from having 7 and 8s (1-10 scale) to 4 and 3s across the board during his 30 year old season. Needless to say i'm stuck with that contract. I like how it's unpredictable at times.

Le Grande Orange · 12-12-2006, 09:44 PM

There was a study along somewhat similar lines published in SABR's The Baseball Research Journal entitled, "Are Traded Players Lemons?" I seem to recall there was a similar study about player performance after signing long contracts but I can't find it at the moment.

Twelvefield · 12-13-2006, 03:32 AM

I think every long term contract I have made in OOTPB2006 has had the player drop off the table the moment the ink is signed. I once had a player nailed down for a 10 year contract (!), and his ratings went down from a respectable 55 out of 80 to 25 within the first year. I did get a good trade for him, though.

I think it's more to do with my wishful thinking regarding player talent, but maybe there's something there.

zonk84 · 12-13-2006, 10:10 PM

I have a 3B -- likely to end up in as the best hitter in my league's history -- whose 10 year deal is about to end (after next season). If there had been a way to offer the kid a 15 year deal, I would have -- and I'd also be a happy GM right now.

What's more -- he was the perfect case study in the type of guy that seems to just fall off a cliff.... 17 .yo. 4th overall pick... never put up good minor league numbers (in fact, they're frankly awful... except for his last 6 weeks in AAA). Offseason when he turns 20, somthing just "clicks" -- and it's obvious by May I have to bring him hip. He wins the ROY -- comes thisclose to winning the triple crown -- as well as MVP. Next year, he DOES win the triple crown. Year 3 just misses a back-to-back TC, but picks up another MVP. 20s across the board in talent, something like 100/100/100/80/90 in ratings.

I decide to see if perhaps I can buy out his arb years plus a few FA years... I decide to start high -- 10 years/100 mil... he's interersted, but not quite there... I jack it up, throw in some escalators later in the contract (another item you'd think would flag him for destruction) -- he signs a 10 year/125 mil contract.

Fast forward to year 9 of the deal... he's won 2 more triple crowns, 4 more MVPs (beaten by teammates in all but 1 year he doesn't win), has hit 60+ HRs 3 times, 50+ 7 times, has a career OPS of something like 1.100... he just turned 30 -- and also just hit his 600th HR.

I don't know how I'm gonna pay the guy next year, but he's certainly been worth every penny -- and never a stray little wander into player editor, either. I play with scouts -- and while they all love him, I honestly could not tell you what his "real" ratings ever were.

The counter to the "long term contract sure sign he'll blow" is that it's exceedingly rare to see the types of deals like the one I have above offered, much less accepted... Most guys are never gonna sell out 4 years of FA, right in their prime --- in exchange for buying out 3 years of arbitration.

thedokes · 12-14-2006, 10:00 AM

Thanks Zonk,
You've restored my faith that OOTP wasn't bias towards nipping away at ratings once the long term deal was done.

Given the other responses it seems no clear trend is there - that's what i wanted to find out about.

Thanks Gents!!!!

Exodor · 12-14-2006, 12:03 PM

I think part of the problem is the tendecny of players to go "over the cliff" rather than to slowly decline.

I drafted Benito Santiago prior to the 1987 season. He was a solid 55/50/50 type guy with great defense.

In August I got a message that he was "uncomfortable at the plate".

Now, in November 1987, he's a 20/10/10. At ~25 years old.

Syd Thrift · 12-14-2006, 12:23 PM

biased. Thanks.

QuestGAV · 12-14-2006, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

biased. Thanks.

You defiantly got that one right Slick!

12-12-2006, 09:04 PM	#1
thedokes Minors (Double A) Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Good Ole' Jamesburg NJ Posts: 110	Long Term Contract = Lost of Skills? Anyone have a take on the effect on Performance when offering out a long term contract (4 years plus)? Is it always to diminish the skills a little quicker than if the contract was negotiated in separate terms (2-3 years)? My case in point is Jose Reyes who now at the ripe old age of 25 is entering his fifth year of a contract. His Contact skills have gone from a solid 16 down to ten, his fielding has fallen off also. I know some of this is due to the player aging, and luck of the draw, however I’m wondering if it’s more a product of sitting on a contact for more than 4 years.

12-12-2006, 09:34 PM	#3
ihatenames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rockford Posts: 2,534	I've had mixed success when signing long term deals. I've had a few players who stayed very good through the life of the contract. I've also had one pitcher and one catcher whom i signed to long term deals that nose died. The pitcher only had a year left when he nosed dived so it didn't hurt too much. But i have a catcher who is signed for 3 more years who is owed 11MM and change for those years. He is 31 now and i signed him to a 6 year deal. He went from having 7 and 8s (1-10 scale) to 4 and 3s across the board during his 30 year old season. Needless to say i'm stuck with that contract. I like how it's unpredictable at times. __________________ New Album coming soon!

12-13-2006, 10:10 PM	#6
zonk84 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 263	Anecdotal... I have a 3B -- likely to end up in as the best hitter in my league's history -- whose 10 year deal is about to end (after next season). If there had been a way to offer the kid a 15 year deal, I would have -- and I'd also be a happy GM right now. What's more -- he was the perfect case study in the type of guy that seems to just fall off a cliff.... 17 .yo. 4th overall pick... never put up good minor league numbers (in fact, they're frankly awful... except for his last 6 weeks in AAA). Offseason when he turns 20, somthing just "clicks" -- and it's obvious by May I have to bring him hip. He wins the ROY -- comes thisclose to winning the triple crown -- as well as MVP. Next year, he DOES win the triple crown. Year 3 just misses a back-to-back TC, but picks up another MVP. 20s across the board in talent, something like 100/100/100/80/90 in ratings. I decide to see if perhaps I can buy out his arb years plus a few FA years... I decide to start high -- 10 years/100 mil... he's interersted, but not quite there... I jack it up, throw in some escalators later in the contract (another item you'd think would flag him for destruction) -- he signs a 10 year/125 mil contract. Fast forward to year 9 of the deal... he's won 2 more triple crowns, 4 more MVPs (beaten by teammates in all but 1 year he doesn't win), has hit 60+ HRs 3 times, 50+ 7 times, has a career OPS of something like 1.100... he just turned 30 -- and also just hit his 600th HR. I don't know how I'm gonna pay the guy next year, but he's certainly been worth every penny -- and never a stray little wander into player editor, either. I play with scouts -- and while they all love him, I honestly could not tell you what his "real" ratings ever were. The counter to the "long term contract sure sign he'll blow" is that it's exceedingly rare to see the types of deals like the one I have above offered, much less accepted... Most guys are never gonna sell out 4 years of FA, right in their prime --- in exchange for buying out 3 years of arbitration.

12-12-2006, 09:17 PM	#2
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,005	I think this is anectdotal; along the lines of "a watched pot never boils". I have successfully signed a few players to long term deals (4-7 yrs length), but I don't think any of them were older than 26 when I signed them.

12-12-2006, 09:44 PM	#4
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,644	There was a study along somewhat similar lines published in SABR's The Baseball Research Journal entitled, "Are Traded Players Lemons?" I seem to recall there was a similar study about player performance after signing long contracts but I can't find it at the moment.

12-13-2006, 03:32 AM	#5
Twelvefield All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,188	I think every long term contract I have made in OOTPB2006 has had the player drop off the table the moment the ink is signed. I once had a player nailed down for a 10 year contract (!), and his ratings went down from a respectable 55 out of 80 to 25 within the first year. I did get a good trade for him, though. I think it's more to do with my wishful thinking regarding player talent, but maybe there's something there.

12-14-2006, 10:00 AM	#7
thedokes Minors (Double A) Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Good Ole' Jamesburg NJ Posts: 110	Thanks Zonk, You've restored my faith that OOTP wasn't bias towards nipping away at ratings once the long term deal was done. Given the other responses it seems no clear trend is there - that's what i wanted to find out about. Thanks Gents!!!!

12-14-2006, 12:03 PM	#8
Exodor Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 481	I think part of the problem is the tendecny of players to go "over the cliff" rather than to slowly decline. I drafted Benito Santiago prior to the 1987 season. He was a solid 55/50/50 type guy with great defense. In August I got a message that he was "uncomfortable at the plate". Now, in November 1987, he's a 20/10/10. At ~25 years old.