For those who suspect the game secretly protects the HR record...

[uruguru]

OOTP 24, single season recalc, no minors, no coaching, no player chemistry/personality...


Using real life transactions (but not lineups)... THIS HAPPENED out of nowhere

[omg_pwnasaurus]

This guy got picked up by the Rockies in my sim in 1996 and hit 66 HR to break the record (I started in 1984)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=charbo002mar

[Brad K]

Stuart hitting 65 HRs isn't proof there is no manipulation occurring. Look at the single season ratings of the leaders and get back to us

[Syd Thrift]

Brad has this as his hobby horse because the game designers (I believe rightly) decided that guys with huge outlier seasons shouldn’t be even with or break the outlier seasons 50% of the time (which of course also would mean that a Roger Maris would be as likely to hit 71 Hrs as 51 in 1961 given normal distribution). My fictional league also FWIW had a guy hit 65 in I believe 1962; it was a relatively high HR period and the explosion of the MLB by 25% means that it’s super likely that someone would hit a lot in that period, if not Maris then sure, someone like Dick Stuart or Mantle or Mays or Aaron.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Stuart hitting 65 HRs isn't proof there is no manipulation occurring. Look at the single season ratings of the leaders and get back to us

Clearly the ratings are good enough for someone to hit 60+ homers, given a bit of luck (which Maris had in 1961).



Here's the 50+ homer list for the first 6 season of the sim (1962-67). That's more 50-HR seasons than in the real world.

[Leo_The_Lip]

So what? Not even his real life best. Stuart hit 66 dingers in 1956. True, at Lincoln. He was enormously proud of that and had vanity plates with 66 on them. I saw that pictured in SPORT magazine back in the day.

[jcard]

How could OOTP use “Stu” for his nickname for the (in)famous “Dr. Strangeglove”?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Brad has this as his hobby horse because the game designers (I believe rightly) decided that guys with huge outlier seasons shouldn’t be even with or break the outlier seasons 50% of the time (which of course also would mean that a Roger Maris would be as likely to hit 71 Hrs as 51 in 1961 given normal distribution). My fictional league also FWIW had a guy hit 65 in I believe 1962; it was a relatively high HR period and the explosion of the MLB by 25% means that it’s super likely that someone would hit a lot in that period, if not Maris then sure, someone like Dick Stuart or Mantle or Mays or Aaron.

Why make this personal Syd? The issue is why single out a few players and prevent them from setting records while allowing lesser players to set records? How is this not inconsistent.

The devs insist on random outputs "except". No principle is involved here. Its a selective patch to prevent implausible outputs some of the time. Its a violation of the stated principle of letting randomness have its way on top of the randomness and good luck that produced an unusual (high or low) real life performance on which the player is rated.

[Brad K]

"For those who suspect the game secretly protects the HR record..."

Post the expected output shown in the editor of the leaders. That should eliminate the idea there's only suspicion of a secret.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Brad K

"For those who suspect the game secretly protects the HR record..."

Post the expected output shown in the editor of the leaders. That should eliminate the idea there's only suspicion of a secret.

Dude, if you have a case to make, then make it. Don't expect other people to do your work for you.

[Brad K]

I already did. In front of the devs. I'm asking those who don't believe it to show their evidence.

The OP was made based on evidence I've shown doesn't apply. So give it up or come up with new evidence.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I already did. In front of the devs. I'm asking those who don't believe it to show their evidence.

The OP was made based on evidence I've shown doesn't apply. So give it up or come up with new evidence.

What evidence do you want? I don't even understand your argument. Are you trying to say the game doesn't let anyone break the HR record? I've broken it countless times and so have others so what proof do you need?

The game does NOTHING to protect any records. Specially the HR record that's easy to shatter. Try breaking the triples record, now that is hard to do

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Why make this personal Syd? The issue is why single out a few players and prevent them from setting records while allowing lesser players to set records? How is this not inconsistent.

The devs insist on random outputs "except". No principle is involved here. Its a selective patch to prevent implausible outputs some of the time. Its a violation of the stated principle of letting randomness have its way on top of the randomness and good luck that produced an unusual (high or low) real life performance on which the player is rated.

Who said players are being singled out to prevent them from setting records?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Why make this personal Syd? The issue is why single out a few players and prevent them from setting records while allowing lesser players to set records? How is this not inconsistent.

The devs insist on random outputs "except". No principle is involved here. Its a selective patch to prevent implausible outputs some of the time. Its a violation of the stated principle of letting randomness have its way on top of the randomness and good luck that produced an unusual (high or low) real life performance on which the player is rated.

This is an absolutely ridiculous assertion you’re making and as usual, you’ve provided no evidence but your own fee fees to back it up. This isn’t Debate Club and you aren’t going to get the devs to look at something that isn’t there just because you’ve been pretending it’s there for the past 3 years or however long it is you’ve been saying so.

Read a book on statistics. Maybe that will help. Probably not. I’d choose a book but I fear that one that I pick will be either too technical or will give you a sad and make you put it down the way OOTP apparently gives you a constant sad.

[drksd4848]

Guys, guys, guys....

Let me settle this for you... Deep in the league settings there is a check box that says:

"Protect Real League Records"

Just uncheck that and you'll be fine...

Oh, and right below it is a checkbox that says:

"Allow Game to Cheat"

Make sure that is unchecked too.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

What evidence do you want? I don't even understand your argument. Are you trying to say the game doesn't let anyone break the HR record? I've broken it countless times and so have others so what proof do you need?

The game does NOTHING to protect any records. Specially the HR record that's easy to shatter. Try breaking the triples record, now that is hard to do

You don't understand my argument because you're reading Syd's inaccurate characterization of it mixed with personal insults of me. Here is one of the early discussions of the issue. The first post on the page describes what I see as a problem. I've reposted the chart from that page below in this post.

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...+mantle&page=2

Look over the thread. Its a good read.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

This is an absolutely ridiculous assertion you’re making and as usual, you’ve provided no evidence but your own fee fees to back it up. This isn’t Debate Club and you aren’t going to get the devs to look at something that isn’t there just because you’ve been pretending it’s there for the past 3 years or however long it is you’ve been saying so.

Read a book on statistics. Maybe that will help. Probably not. I’d choose a book but I fear that one that I pick will be either too technical or will give you a sad and make you put it down the way OOTP apparently gives you a constant sad.

Now Syd, why are you getting personal?.

You snobbishly tell me to read a book on statistics while ignoring that this thread started out with a post trying to use irrelevant data to prove a point. Where's your call out of that?

You surely remember the original discussion and I don't know why you're trying to defend OOTP devs on something they don't care about. They've made their decision.

[thehef]

There is extensive and fascinating discussion (I believe Brad has already beaten me in noting some of it) in this thread: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=331438

A highlight, as it pertains to - figuratively - "capping" HR totals:

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

First, for historical outlier seasons like Maris' 61 HR season, the game is not rating Maris as if his 'true' talent for that season is to hit 61 HR's.

Re Lukas mentioning "historical outlier" it should be noted that he confirmed that Maris' 61 HR's is treated by OOTP as a historical outlier even if you are playing with ideal replay settings (1-year recalc, real lineups, etc.), in which - by definition - "historical outlier" should be an invalid concept.

I haven't tested this out since v22 (perhaps others have), but back then it was pretty clear that the big single-season HR numbers that you might expect from guys like the Bambino, Hack, Greenberg, Foxx, Kiner, Maris routinely fall short. Maris, for examples, a) will rarely hit in the range of 61 HR's, b) will very rarely exceed 61 HR's, even by a little bit, and c) will frequently come up quite short, like hit in 40's. This is not true, for example, of guys with outlier-high batting avg seasons (Cobb, Hornsby, T Williams, Carew, Brett).

My personal opinion is that if you are playing with replay settings then OOTP shouldn't care that Maris' 61 was an outlier. 1961 Maris should in OOTP be just as likely to hit a few more than 61 dingers as he is to hit a few less. Again, assuming ideal replay settings. OOTP disagrees. Their contention is that if Maris was hitting 71 in '61 as often as he was hitting 41, the complaints would be overwhelming. Perhaps they are right. I don't know... I've generally just accepted this and moved on from it, but still thought the above might be of value to the convo.

I definitely invite anyone with an interest to the check out the thread mentioned above. Lots of good info in there from Lukas and others

[Syd Thrift]

There's also a point to be made that OOTP isn't Strat-O-Matic, it's a GM simulation designed to be run over time. In the grand scheme of things Maris is more likely to break 60 HRs than anyone else but lots of guys who finished IRL in the 50+ range could have a big year and break the record - if not Maris then Mantle or Dick Stuart or Aaron or Mays or Greenberg or Kiner or McCovey or Banks. More often than not, someone at least IME does break the mark.

Ruth's issue is an entirely different one - he hit sooooo many HRs compared to the rest of the league some seasons that it's just really, really hard for any simulation to capture it. In 1920, for example, Ruth had more HRs personally than any other team in the league except his own Yankees and the Phillies. Literally no other team had more than 50. He had more dingers than I think it was the 4 worst teams combined. It's really, really hard to have a league set to "deadball era" but one guy set to "Barry Bonds". I believe his HR totals do get much more in line as more guys around him began to hit more of them and of course in the modern game rates are really accurate.

There's no massive sweeping conspiracy and some of the "fixes" proposed in the past - giving players who are short of their actual numbers extra chances to hit them - would be so terrible and, frankly, against the principle of how OOTP generates stats - that I personally might stop playing. Fortunately the developers also understand how terrible those particular fixes are. And, as I've said before, if you want a game where Roger Maris hits 71 HRs as often as he hits 51, Strat-O-Matic exists and still puts on a really good show.

[LansdowneSt]

Originally Posted by Brad K

You don't understand my argument because you're reading Syd's inaccurate characterization of it mixed with personal insults of me. Here is one of the early discussions of the issue. The first post on the page describes what I see as a problem. I've reposted the chart from that page below in this post.

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...+mantle&page=2

Look over the thread. Its a good read.

The neutralized stats likely only account for things like ballpark factor adjustments whereas the real stats likely have additional regressions to address outlier seasons (of which Maris is one).

If you wanted to make a suggestion for more variation (or more outliers) in historic play, you should ask for an additional, actual toggle to exist, it would be "don't regress it and let the raw stats be "RAW"".

No one is protecting records per se but once you do a bunch of neutralization on the numbers, regression would be overkill. The fact it leads to Maris having more HR potential in 1961 as a neutralized import vs a raw, regressed import is more a quirk of math than a conspiracy.

But a toggle for those that are really into this and want RAW raw stats could be do-able... but that'd be for a developer to reply to. It would certainly not be the default on raw stat usage.