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OOTP 22 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 09-02-2021, 09:54 AM   #61
seasideda
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Ahhhhh, ok I think Im starting to get a better understanding how to interpret the numbers and settings. (But maybe not after you read my post. (: ) Thank you all for your help!

So sorry if Im dumbing this down but for now I just want to get the basics down first. I understand this may be a very simple way of how Im understanding the players editor, ranking creations, neutralized vs real, park effects and player and league modifiers:
Note that Im using these examples playing a single season game, with player development turned off.

If Im using Ted Williams from 1946: (His actual stats in that year were .342, 38 hr's. )


1) For neutralized Stats, the stats that Im seeing in the player editor are just estimates based on if the player was playing in a modern environment and used as a formula to produce his ratings? So for example Ted Williams in 1946 in his player editor shows 50 hrs which is what he might hit if playing in a modern environment with all parks being neutral. (No park effects) In his editor as neutral he is shown .364/50 hrs.

2) For Real Stats, which initially I assumed I would see his Actual stats in his editor that match is actual stats from 1946. But now my understanding is that the stats Im seeing in his editor might be different because the stats are not driving his performance in the game, but HIS RANKINGS ARE and (this is where I might be way off) adjusted, based on the different players I choose to have in the league, so if Im using different teams from different years, players stats thus rankings will be adjusted accordingly? Ted Williams REAL STATS in the player editor are very close to his REAL STATS in 1946 though so maybe Im wrong about this. His player editor stats using Real stats are .344/39hrs. But his rankings are created in comparison to other hitters in the league? Where I get confused is how park effects work with using real stats but I assume if I make all parks neutral his real stats will be more in line with reality?

So now the LEAGUE MODIFIER COMBINED with the Rankings will drive the players outcome and in a sense to balance the numbers seen in the league modifyer to distribute stats to players to create the league numbers close to what they should be in that given season? thus were you might get some players that unperform or overperform, and in some cases way over or under?

Again, these are all assumptions based on what Ive read in forums and the manual, so just trying to get a better understanding so I can set my league up properly depending on what Im trying to do.
Thanks again!
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Old 09-02-2021, 10:19 AM   #62
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Thanks again!
Yeah, I'd say you're understanding pretty well
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Old 09-02-2021, 10:38 AM   #63
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So, just to add, in case this is at all helpful...

For the league in your initial post, where you have a bunch of the top teams and players from a period in history all together, you can really just totally throw out what you see for the expected stats in the editor. They're completely irrelevant to your league. That's because your league most likely has a much higher base talent level than a typical league.

If Ruth would be expected to hit 60 HR's based on his ratings (in a typical league according to the editor), in a league like you're putting together, he might only be expected to hit 30, because the overall talent level of the league as a whole is so much higher and there are so many more mouths to feed with pieces of the league totals pie (to continue using our pie analogy).

But even if that's the case, the numbers in the editor will not actually change, because they're not actually based on your league at all, just that totally theoretical 'neutral modern' league.

If you actually wanted Ruth to hit 60 HR's in your league, you'd likely have to boost his power ratings up to where the stats in the editor would predict him to hit 90. But of course, if you do that, then Williams and everyone else in the league will now hit even less homers, because more of the league's homers will go to super Ruth.

This is an important thing to remember when editing ratings by hand or importing teams/players from multiple eras. Every action you take for one player will have an opposite reaction on other players because of how the league totals/modifiers control the league's statistical output.

If you boost one player's ratings to where he hits 20 more HR's than expected, those 20 HR's have to come from somewhere, so the rest of the league will likely hit 20 HR's less (more or less, it's not exact, there's always a bit of leeway. It could be 18 or could be 21 or even 30) than you'd theoretically expect. If you boost 10 players to each hit 20 more HR's than expected, then the rest of the league will 'lose' somewhere around 200 expected HR's (though in a case like that, even some of the 10 guys you boost might lose some expected HR's as well) etc. etc.

Of course, if you wanted to do the above and not lose any HR's, you could do so by boosting the league totals. But then that will start to affect the pitchers in the league and cause them to underperform their expected stats. The higher you boost the league's HR's the worse the pitchers will do in comparison to their expected performance.
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Old 09-02-2021, 01:25 PM   #64
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Well than, that clears a lot of thing up for me! because I actually did boost Babe Ruth and Jimmy Fox's HR modifiers up because they were hitting far less Hr's so now Ruth has a Power Ranking of over 100, but wasn't thinking how that would effect other players in the league. But Ruth is now on pace to hit 30+ hr's and while he wont (or shouldn't) hit 60 which makes sense given all the other factors you mentioned.

Soooo now I need to remember that when I see a players like Dimaggio or Williams hitting Hr's well below what he should, even in the environment I created. And now after reading your post, I realize I have been putting too much stock on looking the player editor numbers when players aren't performing to my liking but really should be comparing their power rankings. Guys like Ruth, Gerhig, Fox etc should have power rankings in order of actual hr's compared to other players in the league. Again with player development off. Although I don't really want to change (up) the league modifiers because then the less power hitters will start hitting above their expected range of hr's.



I have to admit I started playing my first OOTP game using this complicated league set up, which may have not been the best place to start, but Its forcing me to learn the game much faster.



Starting to make more sense now, but still have to determine if I should set a league up like this using real or naturalized stats with or without park effects. Thats for another topic though. My guess is Real with all parks set to neutral
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Old 09-05-2021, 02:11 PM   #65
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I had a question on a similar topic and was referred to this thread. It's been interesting and somewhat helpful, although it didn't answer some of the issues I'm having. It did give me some possibilities I'd like to cask about.

My league is similar to the original poster, except I am making teams by importing players by decade. My first attempt is the 1920's, where I want to import players to make a "greats team" of the 20's for each franchise. My plan is to play out a season and eventually do each decade, then have them battle it out.

I planned to have each "decade season" be played in a middle year of the decade....for the 20's, it would be 1925. I figured out everything as far as clearing rosters, importing players, etc. However, the pitchers I imported came in with super high ratings for "stuff". Many were 175 to over 200. I didn't import all the players of the league at the same time, though.....I only did the ones for the Red Sox to start. Is that why the ratings came out so high? The game is thinking they are the only pitchers in the league, so they have to split up the "pie of strikeouts" on their own? If not, is there something else I may have missed or a setting I needed to adjust? It may be that the power ratings for the batters were too high as well, but it wasn't as exaggerated. Seems like a similar "HR pie" issue could be at play?

The other issue I had was with trying to assign players to the team instead of just having them come in as free agents. Here is an example of how I did my list of players to be imported- For Del Pratt, I typed in prattde01, 1921, Bos That is how I did all players, using the year I want to use.....they all came into the game, but as free agents...not on the Red Sox. Again, Red Sox players were the only ones I did so I don't know if I need to do everyone at once?

Any input is appreciated...thanks!
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Old 09-05-2021, 03:05 PM   #66
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When you import players they're free agents. Don't worry about the ratings. However be sure you're importing all players with the same import settings.
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Old 09-05-2021, 05:44 PM   #67
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When you import players they're free agents. Don't worry about the ratings. However be sure you're importing all players with the same import settings.
Unless you're importing multiple via a text file.

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The other issue I had was with trying to assign players to the team instead of just having them come in as free agents. Here is an example of how I did my list of players to be imported- For Del Pratt, I typed in prattde01, 1921, Bos That is how I did all players, using the year I want to use.....they all came into the game, but as free agents...not on the Red Sox. Again, Red Sox players were the only ones I did so I don't know if I need to do everyone at once?
Highlander did you make sure that you're using all caps for the team id? it should be BOS not Bos.

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Old 09-05-2021, 06:52 PM   #68
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Unless you're importing multiple via a text file.



Highlander did you make sure that you're using all caps for the team id? it should be BOS not Bos.
Yes, I am using all caps....I've tried BOS and CWS and neither worked.
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Old 09-05-2021, 07:21 PM   #69
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Maybe try CHA for the White Sox.
Not sure about the Red Sox though as BOS has worked for me.
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Old 09-05-2021, 07:56 PM   #70
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I'm using the abbreviations in the game....when I go to Settings/League & Teams. I am correct in typing it out like this, though...right? ruthba01, 1927, NYY

Do I put the comma between the year and the team?
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Old 09-05-2021, 08:01 PM   #71
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Unless you're importing multiple via a text file.
Ahhhh...
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Old 09-05-2021, 10:26 PM   #72
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Do I put the comma between the year and the team?
Yes.

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Old 09-05-2021, 10:29 PM   #73
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I have found the most reliable way to bulk import is via an Excel file.

Put the ID, year, and team in the first three columns.

Save as a csv and make a copy.

In your directory, change the .csv of one of the files to .txt

Use that to import.

Works a charm for me.

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Old 09-07-2021, 07:55 PM   #74
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My importing issue with players not going to the teams was because I was putting a space between the comma and the team abbreviation. When I took out the space, they went to the team just fine. Still getting really high stuff ratings, but we'll see if it stays that way when I import everyone at once.
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Old 09-16-2021, 05:33 PM   #75
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Hey Lukas, re this...

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So take this as an example (with the disclaimer that the %'s here are totally made up by me just for the purposes of the discussion and may not in the least reflect the real %).

If we go ahead and set Maris' HR ratings to try to have him target 61 exactly, you're likely to get a range of possible outcomes something like this (assuming no injuries or unrealistic lost playing time):

less than 50 > 5%
50-54 > 15%
55-59 > 15%
60-62 > 20%
63-70 > 30%
over 70 > 15%
over 80 > rare occasions

So if your goal is simply to get Maris to hit 61 exactly, this setup would probably give you the best chance of that happening. But you can see the downside. You end up with a lot of seasons where he hits well over 61 and into the 70's. Probably even hits 80 on rare occasions.

Now, if you set things so Maris' expected target is, say 55, the chart might look something more like this:

less than 50 > 15%
50-54 > 25%
55-59 > 30%
60-62 > 10%
63-70 > 15%
over 70 > 5%
over 80 > never

So this setup gets Maris to exactly 61 less often than the first one, but it produces a band of possible results that is overall much closer to what we want, with less potential for extreme outliers and the overall distribution of possible seasons falling in a more realistic band.

(because of how the ratings work, when dealing with ratings on the high end of the scale, you're always going to have more potential for extreme outliers on the high side than the low side)
... I'm not so sure that the second is preferable to the first. I mean, the first gives better chance of similar (to real life) HR totals, while the other gives a lesser chance to unrealistically high or low. Kind of a trade-off either way.

I guess what I can't figure out is: Why, with one-year recalc, do the HR totals of guys with the big real life outlier seasons (Ruth a few times in 20's, Maris in '61, Greenberg in '68, Foxx in '32, Kiner a few times in the late 40's...) end up looking like their settings are on 3- or 5-year recalc, but guys with outlier high-batting avg years (Cobb, Hornsby, T Williams, Carew, Brett) look just fine?

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Old 09-17-2021, 09:00 AM   #76
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On three year non weighted, similar to your situation, I don't see the big HR totals but I do see the high BAs. I've never had anyone break Ruth's career record. I think one time I've had someone exceed 61 on a season.
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Old 09-18-2021, 10:43 AM   #77
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Hey Lukas, re this...



... I'm not so sure that the second is preferable to the first. I mean, the first gives better chance of similar (to real life) HR totals, while the other gives a lesser chance to unrealistically high or low. Kind of a trade-off either way.

I guess what I can't figure out is: Why, with one-year recalc, do the HR totals of guys with the big real life outlier seasons (Ruth a few times in 20's, Maris in '61, Greenberg in '68, Foxx in '32, Kiner a few times in the late 40's...) end up looking like their settings are on 3- or 5-year recalc, but guys with outlier high-batting avg years (Cobb, Hornsby, T Williams, Carew, Brett) look just fine?
Oh, the second is better than the first, believe me At least as far as keeping people happy. There might be a few folks who complain about how we do it now, but if Maris was regularly hitting 80 HR's in 61, the complaint threads would be 20 pages long, not 3 pages long

As far as HR's and BA goes, I think this is just because HR's having a much smaller sample size, have a lot more room for variance, so we have to be more conservative with them. The difference between a .340 and a .380 BA over a full season is like what, 25 hits?

Thus, if in a given sim we're off by 25 hits for a top BA guy, it's not super noticeable since most people aren't going to get overly worked up about a guy who's 'supposed' to hit .340 hitting .380 or whatever, since that feels like a pretty normal variance.

If you're off by 25 HR's, that's the difference between 61 Maris and and a totally unrealistic, completely impossible 86 HR season that anyone and everyone would be up in arms about if that happened in their replay.

So, since we don't rig the math to hold guys down if they're on their way to an outlier season in a sim, as I've mentioned, we have to be a little conservative to prevent 80 HR season outliers, which would totally happen if we were fully targeting 61.
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Old 09-18-2021, 11:37 PM   #78
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Yeah and TBH I think that fits historicity better. Outside of 1961 Maris never hit more than 39 HR in a season and I think it’s very easy to make an argument that he had say, 40-45 HR power that year but got “lucky”. Really, before McGwire and Sosa I don’t know that anyone should be necessarily “rated” for 60 dingers because nobody was consistently hitting that many year after year. Even Babe Ruth hit 59 in 1921 and then averaged 47 per 162 games from ‘22 to ‘26 before busting out with 60 in ‘27. I know we don’t like to attribute things that happened in real life to luck but… like Maris in 61 Ruth’s stats make a lot more sense if you give him the “ability” to hit 50 or so during the 20s and allow random chance to do its thing than to watch him hit 75 in 1921 a huge chunk of the time.
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Old 09-19-2021, 01:03 PM   #79
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I hope home run peaks aren't brought down for people who use 3 and 5 year recalc beyond what the averaging does. It seems that should be enough evening to prevent excessive seasons while giving a player several shots at that big season. IOW, instead of a guy being rated for 61 HRs in one season he gets rated for 40-45 for three seasons with a chance one of them could turn into 61.

I play 3 year recalc not weighted dev on TCR 100. For a long time I played late 60s to mid 90s with full history imported until recently switching to 1951 to early 2000s with no history imported. Max career HRs I've even seen is 706 with nothing else close to Ruth, and one season over 61.

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Old 09-20-2021, 07:12 AM   #80
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Lukas: In a discussion with Markus re a similar/related issue in the Historical beta forum, I prefaced a point with the following:

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I totally get the OOTP isn't supposed to be Strat-o-matic accurate; we should expect variances
Markus' reply included:

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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
OOTP is actually more realistic than Strat-o-matic
This would not seem to jibe with the fact that for a single-season replay where 1-year recal is used, OOTP will make adjustments to - for example - make it fairly unlikely that Maris will hit in the range of 61 HR's in 1961 (and make it more likely that he will consistently hit fewer than 61 HR's). I totally get the effort to make it unlikely that he'll break out with 80 dingers, but I don't get the part that makes it unlikely that he gets near 61.

And again, if I'm using 1-year recalc, I shouldn't be seeing HR results from the likes of Maris, Ruth, and other guys )with big HR years) that make it look like I'm using 3- or 5-year recalc. It just doesn't make sense. It's basically OOTP saying that if you want to do a single-season replay on the '61 Yanks, "have fun, but don't expect Maris & Mantle to hit as many HR's as they did in real life..." Or: "OOTP will do a great job of single-season replay, except for HR's, which will be in 3- (or 5-)year recalc mode, even if you choose 1-yr recalc." It should be: "Maris & Mantle - assuming similar-to-real-life usage, should hit around the same number of HR's. Maybe a few more, maybe a few less." That's the idea with 1-year recalc and single-season settings, right? So I don't get it...
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