No outs, man on third - Page 3

MizzouRah · 07-17-2012, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveP

The explanation for this is simple:

If the infield is playing In, the AI will never advance the runner on 3B with less than 2 outs (based loaded being the obvious exception). If the infield is playing Out, the Inf will never attempt to throw the runner out at home. These "rules" seem to be pretty rigid in OOTP. The infield will be playing In in late innings in a close game.

There is one exception to the above, which occurs rarely: if the runner on 3B would score a walk-off run, he may try to advance even when the inf is playing In, and you will get a play at Home.

Makes sense.. but you don't have time to look a runner back to 3B and then complete a DP - well, I guess it could be done if the runners are slow as molasses.

BIG17EASY · 07-17-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveP

The explanation for this is simple:

If the infield is playing In, the AI will never advance the runner on 3B with less than 2 outs (based loaded being the obvious exception). If the infield is playing Out, the Inf will never attempt to throw the runner out at home. These "rules" seem to be pretty rigid in OOTP. The infield will be playing In in late innings in a close game.

There is one exception to the above, which occurs rarely: if the runner on 3B would score a walk-off run, he may try to advance even when the inf is playing In, and you will get a play at Home.

So if there's a slow roller past the pitcher or up either baseline and the infield is in, a good runner with good speed will never try to score? That's not really sound logic.

Craig Scarborough · 07-17-2012, 02:04 PM

Don't know this for sure, but I'm thinking Markus used real pbp data for baserunner advancement and there's probably a miniscule chance that when a ball is hit to 4m with a runner on third and 0 outs that the runner will stay, probably something like 2%.

The problem is, using pbp data removes the narrative from the story - you know what happened, but you don't know why. So, in that 2% where the runner doesn't score - a missed sign, runner falls, etc., you just don't know. On rare plays like that it would be nice if some commentary would kick in to explain.

Also - the "infield in", may just completely override pbp data, so this may be a case of what a previous poster said - if the infield is in, and the ball doesn't escape the infield (or perhaps if it's not hit deep in the infield), that runner, by default, stays.

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I don't remember, to be honest. Even so, I would think once he looks the runner back to third, the DP probably wouldn't be turned unless Molina was running.

I didn't want to get into this, but I have personally looked a runner back at third and still started a DP. It can be done. You're playing in at 2nd, the batter hits a hot grounder right to you, you pivot slightly to the right to freeze the runner at third (baserunners have it drilled into them to never be the first or third out at third), he heads back to the bag, you quick flip it to the SS at second and he turns two with it. If the runner at third doesn't freeze and go back then he's dead meat, and runners at 1st and 2nd with one out is better than runners at first and third with no outs.

It happens in real life. There's time. And if the runner at third tries to run on the SS or 1B then they gun him down. I've seen it.

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 02:51 PM

And, no that did not happen in pro baseball but in junior college baseball. And I didn't even sleep at the right motel first.

MizzouRah · 07-17-2012, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

I didn't want to get into this, but I have personally looked a runner back at third and still started a DP. It can be done. You're playing in at 2nd, the batter hits a hot grounder right to you, you pivot slightly to the right to freeze the runner at third (baserunners have it drilled into them to never be the first or third out at third), he heads back to the bag, you quick flip it to the SS at second and he turns two with it. If the runner at third doesn't freeze and go back then he's dead meat, and runners at 1st and 2nd with one out is better than runners at first and third with no outs.

It happens in real life. There's time. And if the runner at third tries to run on the SS or 1B then they gun him down. I've seen it.

If I'm an excellent base runner, as soon as the ball is hit I'm starting to go towards home, you are going to have to throw me out at home, especially in a playoff game in the 8th inning down 1-0. Even then, if you looked me back, I'm not going all the way back to the bag because it's not a force out, even if you do throw to 3B.. but once I see you start a DP, I'm sprinting towards home plate. The SS will have to stop his momentum towards 1B and throw me out at home.

In that situation especially, I'm telling my runner to go on contact, the only thing that matters at that point in time is tying the game up.

Line drive, ball hit in the air, you go back and tag, ball hit on the ground past the pitcher, you get your butt in gear and head home.

I'm sure there are situations where that doesn't always happen 100% of the time, but at that situational point in time I tell my runner, "on contact, get a big jump and if it's on the ground, head home".

tds787 · 07-17-2012, 03:40 PM

Just to add another point of view...

In the situation (down 1-0, bottom of the 8th in a playoff game, no outs and a runner on third) that runner is going to be more cautious than aggressive. Don't want to get thrown out at home when runs are a premium, especially when your six outs away from losing a playoff game.

Groucho Marx · 07-17-2012, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bazeall

That play just happened a week or two ago in an Astros game. There was a DP ball, I thought I saw the runner go home, scored it as a DP with the run scoring. The supervisor in NY messaged "hey, stop, that run didn't score". The person I saw down the 3B line was the coach.

It happens.

What do you do for a living?

It sounds pretty cool.

SteveP · 07-17-2012, 04:50 PM

I don't know for sure, but I am inclined to think the DP situation in the OP works that way because the general rule about Inf In defenses in OOTP ends up controlling these DP situations by default -- not because Markus considers it to be more realistic (but who knows?

). And I think that rule is probably just a way to simplify decision making for the AI and keep things realistic most of the time.

OTOH, since the guy on 3B will sometimes try to score in a certain situation with the Inf In, one might suppose that Markus could modify the parameters in that programming -- for example, to include any late inning close score game. But that's just my

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

If I'm an excellent base runner, as soon as the ball is hit I'm starting to go towards home, you are going to have to throw me out at home, especially in a playoff game in the 8th inning down 1-0. Even then, if you looked me back, I'm not going all the way back to the bag because it's not a force out, even if you do throw to 3B.. but once I see you start a DP, I'm sprinting towards home plate. The SS will have to stop his momentum towards 1B and throw me out at home.
I
In that situation especially, I'm telling my runner to go on contact, the only thing that matters at that point in time is tying the game up.

Line drive, ball hit in the air, you go back and tag, ball hit on the ground past the pitcher, you get your butt in gear and head home.

I'm sure there are situations where that doesn't always happen 100% of the time, but at that situational point in time I tell my runner, "on contact, get a big jump and if it's on the ground, head home".

If he had done that I would have thrown him out at the plate and it would have likely been a 4-2-3 DP and there would still be two outs but they'd only have a runner on second.

David Watts · 07-17-2012, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

If he had done that I would have thrown him out at the plate and it would have likely been a 4-2-3 DP and there would still be two outs but they'd only have a runner on second.

I can buy the out at the plate part, but I have a hard time believing the catcher would be able to tag the runner out and throw to first in time for the out.

BIG17EASY · 07-17-2012, 05:18 PM

Part of the issue with the double play from my point of view is that if the infield is truly in, that means the middle infielders have their feet on the edge of the grass by the time the ball is pitched. With runners on the corners, that makes it ridiculously easy for the runner on first to steal second if he has any speed because the middle infielders have to pivot back to get to second base. That's the same reason it's hard to turn a double play when the infield is truly in. So rarely do middle infielders play all the way in with first-and-third unless the runner on third is the winning run and there's none out, or there's one out and they're not willing to try to turn two.

I'm not saying it's 100 percent impossible to turn a double play with the infield all the way in, but it's extremely unlikely because the infielders would be so unlikely to even attempt it, let alone pull it off. So that leads me to believe OOTP reads that situation (infield in, runners on the corners) as having the middle infielders more than halfway but not all the way in on the edge of the grass. If that's the case, there is time to look a runner back at third and still turn two on a sharply hit ball.

BIG17EASY · 07-17-2012, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

I can buy the out at the plate part, but I have a hard time believing the catcher would be able to tag the runner out and throw to first in time for the out.

Exactly, securing the ball and making a good tag takes quite a while. Then turning toward first and making a throw means the runner would have to be slower than Johnny Estrada to be out.

MizzouRah · 07-17-2012, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

If he had done that I would have thrown him out at the plate and it would have likely been a 4-2-3 DP and there would still be two outs but they'd only have a runner on second.

Ok Jeter...

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

I can buy the out at the plate part, but I have a hard time believing the catcher would be able to tag the runner out and throw to first in time for the out.

Their catcher was batting. He was about as slow as you can imagine.

David Watts · 07-17-2012, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Ok Jeter...

Don't you mean Cano

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Ok Jeter...

That kind of crap is why I avoid mentioning anything about my playing days. We return now to permanent radio silence on the subject.

MizzouRah · 07-17-2012, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Don't you mean Cano

The pbp said the ball was hit to the SS, the log said 2B. I'm not sure what is right in this situation.

The Wolf · 07-17-2012, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

So that leads me to believe OOTP reads that situation (infield in, runners on the corners) as having the middle infielders more than halfway but not all the way in on the edge of the grass. If that's the case, there is time to look a runner back at third and still turn two on a sharply hit ball.

You, sir, have played the game.

MizzouRah · 07-17-2012, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

That kind of crap is why I avoid mentioning anything about my playing days. We return now to permanent radio silence on the subject.

I'm messing with you.. seriously though, my player on 3B had better than average speed and was rated a perfect 10/10 in base running.

I expected to read, "ball hit through the box to the SS/2B, the runner is trying to score from 3B, there is going to be a play at the plate.."

07-17-2012, 02:04 PM	#43
Craig Scarborough All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 551	Don't know this for sure, but I'm thinking Markus used real pbp data for baserunner advancement and there's probably a miniscule chance that when a ball is hit to 4m with a runner on third and 0 outs that the runner will stay, probably something like 2%. The problem is, using pbp data removes the narrative from the story - you know what happened, but you don't know why. So, in that 2% where the runner doesn't score - a missed sign, runner falls, etc., you just don't know. On rare plays like that it would be nice if some commentary would kick in to explain. Also - the "infield in", may just completely override pbp data, so this may be a case of what a previous poster said - if the infield is in, and the ball doesn't escape the infield (or perhaps if it's not hit deep in the infield), that runner, by default, stays.

07-17-2012, 03:40 PM	#47
tds787 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2012 Location: East Valley, Arizona Posts: 173	Just to add another point of view... In the situation (down 1-0, bottom of the 8th in a playoff game, no outs and a runner on third) that runner is going to be more cautious than aggressive. Don't want to get thrown out at home when runs are a premium, especially when your six outs away from losing a playoff game.

07-17-2012, 04:50 PM	#49
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	I don't know for sure, but I am inclined to think the DP situation in the OP works that way because the general rule about Inf In defenses in OOTP ends up controlling these DP situations by default -- not because Markus considers it to be more realistic (but who knows? ). And I think that rule is probably just a way to simplify decision making for the AI and keep things realistic most of the time. OTOH, since the guy on 3B will sometimes try to score in a certain situation with the Inf In, one might suppose that Markus could modify the parameters in that programming -- for example, to include any late inning close score game. But that's just my

07-17-2012, 05:18 PM	#52
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	Part of the issue with the double play from my point of view is that if the infield is truly in, that means the middle infielders have their feet on the edge of the grass by the time the ball is pitched. With runners on the corners, that makes it ridiculously easy for the runner on first to steal second if he has any speed because the middle infielders have to pivot back to get to second base. That's the same reason it's hard to turn a double play when the infield is truly in. So rarely do middle infielders play all the way in with first-and-third unless the runner on third is the winning run and there's none out, or there's one out and they're not willing to try to turn two. I'm not saying it's 100 percent impossible to turn a double play with the infield all the way in, but it's extremely unlikely because the infielders would be so unlikely to even attempt it, let alone pull it off. So that leads me to believe OOTP reads that situation (infield in, runners on the corners) as having the middle infielders more than halfway but not all the way in on the edge of the grass. If that's the case, there is time to look a runner back at third and still turn two on a sharply hit ball.