For those who suspect the game secretly protects the HR record...

[David Watts]

Has anyone ever ran 1961 several times, say 5 or 7 or 10 times using the single season settings, real lineups/transactions to see how Maris does? Would love to see the results. I know, I could do it myself, but I'm lazy and hoping someone else will do it.

[polydamas]

Coincidentally, one of my players just broke the HR record with 73 after 30+ years of it being the same.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Brad K

You don't understand my argument because you're reading Syd's inaccurate characterization of it mixed with personal insults of me. Here is one of the early discussions of the issue. The first post on the page describes what I see as a problem. I've reposted the chart from that page below in this post.

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...+mantle&page=2

Look over the thread. Its a good read.

If the point being made here is that Maris usually hits somewhere around 50 HRs (which I think is the point?), the question remains as to *why* that is necessarily a bad thing.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

If the point being made here is that Maris usually hits somewhere around 50 HRs (which I think is the point?), the question remains as to *why* that is necessarily a bad thing.

It may or may not be, depending upon one's expectations. I'll say, though, that if all the guys who IRL had monster single-season HR years routinely don't achieve those in OOTP, but the guys that IRL had monster batting avg season do achieve those numbers, then it's not working like it should. Just my opinion, though. Obviously, some others feel differently... And I'll reiterate that I'm only referring to OOTP sims where replay settings are chosen.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Has anyone ever ran 1961 several times, say 5 or 7 or 10 times using the single season settings, real lineups/transactions to see how Maris does? Would love to see the results. I know, I could do it myself, but I'm lazy and hoping someone else will do it.

Ask, and ye shall receive

Originally Posted by Rain King

This is going to seem staged, but I just did this with the following results.

Ratings for Single Season Replay.
As played lineups and transactions.


Season 1 - 49
Season 2 - 54
Season 3 - 54
Season 4 - 56 (Mantle hit 64)
Season 5 - 55
Season 6 - 44
Season 7 - 58
Season 8 - 54
Season 9 - 55
Season 10 - 61

That's an average of 54 HR's for those scoring at home... You'll find these type of results for other high-total single-season HR leaders. But not for high-average single-season batting leaders.

Note: Rain King did this in Sept of 2021 so I think that was on OOTP version 22. However, I don't think anything has changed since then on this subject.

[kq76]

It seems to me the problem is some people expect Maris to, on average, hit 61 home runs in a 1961 sim, yet it was a record that stood for a long time and therefore it's quite rightly considered an outlier and so it shouldn't happen very often at all. Of course someone should break it eventually, but it really shouldn't be expected to be broken in a given year, not alone by that same player in that given year. Although the 1961 expansion of both the number of games and teams certainly helped to it being broken, the record wasn't broken again in the '62, '69, '77, or '93 expansion years (it was broken in '98, another expansion year, but I think we all realize expansion didn't play the biggest factor that time).

[thehef]

Originally Posted by kq76

It seems to me the problem is some people expect Maris to, on average, hit 61 home runs in a 1961 sim, yet it was a record that stood for a long time and therefore it's quite rightly considered an outlier and so it shouldn't happen very often at all. Of course someone should break it eventually, but it really shouldn't be expected to be broken in a given year, not alone by that same player in that given year. Although the 1961 expansion of both the number of games and teams certainly helped to it being broken, the record wasn't broken again in the '62, '69, '77, or '93 expansion years (it was broken in '98, another expansion year, but I think we all realize expansion didn't play the biggest factor that time).

For me, I don't care if we're talking Maris' 61 in '61, Gordy Coleman's 26 in '61, or Bill Russell's 5 in '74. If we are using replay settings, Maris should be just as likely to hit a few more than 61 as he is to hit a few less than 61... and expectations for other players should be in line with what they did IRL.

And again, OOTP doesn't limit the ability of, say George Brett to hit in the 'hood of .390 in '80, Rod Carew to hit around .388 in '77, or Teddy Ballgame to hit in the ballpark of .406 in '41, but it is - by it's own admission - limiting the ability of Maris to hit in the range of 61 in '61 (and limiting other single-season HR kings to hit in the range of their RL numbers).

Again, by definition, an OOTP game set for single-season replay should not know that any particular number is an outlier based upon a player's career or in comparison to other players, years, whatever.

Looked at another way, if I wanted Maris to hit in the range of 50 HR's in 1961, I'd instead select 3-year recalc, double-weight. That is what 3-year recalc is for. 1-year recalc, however, is - kinda like it says it is - basing ratings on that one year... Or at least it should be. And it is, except for HR's, apparently.

[LansdowneSt]

I hear ya, hef. As I said, it would likely just require no regression applied on the raw stats. Ask if that can be done as a toggle. Seems a straight forward feature suggestion.

[David Watts]

Brad, this is what you asked for. [ATTACH][/ATTACH]

[Brad K]

Thank you. I don't have 24 yet. That's from 24, right?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Thank you. I don't have 24 yet. That's from 24, right?

Yes that is from 24.

[Brad K]

OK, thanks.

[OutS|der]

There should be no such thing an outlier for single season replay. All players should be have ratings that reflect what they did in the season being replayed. Injury, strategy or luck should be the only factors in the end results.

Anything else is not single season replay.

[Syd Thrift]

OOTP isn't Strat O Matic. It's never a "single season replay", it's always in context with the seasons and era around it. Again, if you want a game that just redoes stats, SOM is great. Diamond Mind Baseball is great. You also have to pay a lot more for single seasons because they spend a lot more time curating them than OOTP does.

[LansdowneSt]

Outsider could get what he wants if the game eliminated the regression. Just make it a toggle. Regress (default) or Go Raw. Call it a new feature.

[Syd Thrift]

I'm generally against the game adding even more toggles and buttons to a settings page that's already insanely complex, but sure, if this is what will shut up the people who want OOTP to be a bargain store version of SOM, then OK (it won't but that's another matter).

[Reed]

The following was posted by Garlon a couple years ago. If you want players to reach their outlier home run numbers in a season like Maris, use neutralized stats.

The issue earlier was that Maris does not approach 61 HR when using Real stats and I said that Markus has two adjustments built into the game when using real stats so that HR totals do not get too extreme. One adjustment is HR power in general and another for his own adjustment for the home ballpark. I do not know what process is used there but I brought it up in testing that I felt HR were a bit too reduced for the best HR hitters when using real stats. For the neutralized stats the game does not make those adjustments though. I tried a 1961 with neutralized stats and Maris and Mantle both had over 60 HR when using the default import settings, settings which I think is too high and weaken too many players in the league which causes even more HR to be distributed to the top players. The adjustments made to HR power when using Real stats counteract the default import settings.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Reed

The following was posted by Garlon a couple years ago. If you want players to reach their outlier home run numbers in a season like Maris, use neutralized stats.

The issue earlier was that Maris does not approach 61 HR when using Real stats and I said that Markus has two adjustments built into the game when using real stats so that HR totals do not get too extreme. One adjustment is HR power in general and another for his own adjustment for the home ballpark. I do not know what process is used there but I brought it up in testing that I felt HR were a bit too reduced for the best HR hitters when using real stats. For the neutralized stats the game does not make those adjustments though. I tried a 1961 with neutralized stats and Maris and Mantle both had over 60 HR when using the default import settings, settings which I think is too high and weaken too many players in the league which causes even more HR to be distributed to the top players. The adjustments made to HR power when using Real stats counteract the default import settings.

Thanks for posting this.

[nutt]

Giancarlo once hit 74 HRs in one of the previous versions in a game save. I wanna say he did it with the Yankees and he had signed with them after opting out with the Marlins.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by thehef

For me, I don't care if we're talking Maris' 61 in '61, Gordy Coleman's 26 in '61, or Bill Russell's 5 in '74. If we are using replay settings, Maris should be just as likely to hit a few more than 61 as he is to hit a few less than 61... and expectations for other players should be in line with what they did IRL.

And again, OOTP doesn't limit the ability of, say George Brett to hit in the 'hood of .390 in '80, Rod Carew to hit around .388 in '77, or Teddy Ballgame to hit in the ballpark of .406 in '41, but it is - by it's own admission - limiting the ability of Maris to hit in the range of 61 in '61 (and limiting other single-season HR kings to hit in the range of their RL numbers).

Again, by definition, an OOTP game set for single-season replay should not know that any particular number is an outlier based upon a player's career or in comparison to other players, years, whatever.

Looked at another way, if I wanted Maris to hit in the range of 50 HR's in 1961, I'd instead select 3-year recalc, double-weight. That is what 3-year recalc is for. 1-year recalc, however, is - kinda like it says it is - basing ratings on that one year... Or at least it should be. And it is, except for HR's, apparently.

Yeah, I just don't see it that way. Did people back then think him hitting 61 wasn't that big of a deal, that he could have just as easily have hit 64 or 65? I'm pretty sure that wasn't the case, or at least that's not how the movie portrayed it. It was a big deal, it surprised and excited a lot of people. It'd be like if someone had broken some long-standing Olympic games record that shocked a lot of people, but then there were a group of people who said, "whatever, that's not a big deal, they could have done even better, easily".

I mean, if you want it, you want it. Why should I argue against you not getting what you want. And, unlike Syd, I am for as many options as possible. If you want to play a fictional league where players routinely hit 80 or 90 HRs, I don't care. I just think it's a bizarre request coming from people who apparently want to replay history as realistically as possible. 61 was obviously out there, it didn't happen again until steroids came into the game. Reworking what you said, "Maris should not be just as likely to hit a few more than 61 as he is to hit a few less than 61". 61 was about as much as anyone could have reasonably hoped for back then.

But I'll accept it. If you want Maris to be just as likely to hit a few more than 61 in your sims as he is to hit a few less, then okay. I just don't think it's realistic is all. What was that saying we used to have here? "It's your game, play it your way."