2026 FIFA World Cup - Page 13

Shea6408 · 07-15-2026, 05:57 PM

England!

England!

England!

It's NEVER Coming Home!

I don't even hate England, really. But teams [Yankees, Cowboys, Celtics, Maple Leafs] that think they own their sport annoy me, and so I've become addicted to my quadrennial dose of schadenfreude.

Or, in words of one syllable: hee, hee, hee. Hee-hee-hee-hee. There's nothing so hilarious as watching the Three Liions go behind and suddenly looking to Dan Burn to create scoring chances.

(Tuchas, just because you can make five substitutions, that doesn't mean you have to.)

low · 07-15-2026, 09:23 PM

I'm glad England lost. Just because you have the best league in the world doesn't mean you should be the best team in the world. Ever since '90 or whenever it was they won it all they've annoyed me.

Jordan · 07-15-2026, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by low

I'm glad England lost. Just because you have the best league in the world doesn't mean you should be the best team in the world. Ever since '90 or whenever it was they won it all they've annoyed me.

Haha, 1966 last time they won

Jordan · 07-15-2026, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar

I can tell you how Spain loses. Just do what Egypt, Switzerland, and now England did. Go into a defensive shell with a ton of time remaining, all while giving Argentina exclusive possession trying to run out the clock. That has not worked for anyone against Argentina this entire tournament.

Yeah, I know Switzerland was down a guy, still no excuse for that crap plan they had. Trying to get to penalty kicks not even midway through the 2nd half was stupid.

Problem with that plan is Spain would have to be willing to give up the ball, and they do not like do that

low · 07-16-2026, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

Haha, 1966 last time they won

Could've swore they won in '90. Ok, it was West Germany.

Either way, still hate 'em.

Ragnar · 07-16-2026, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by low

Could've swore they won in '90. Ok, it was West Germany.

Either way, still hate 'em.

They got lucky to get past Cameroon in 1990. That team was every bit as good as England.

Ragnar · 07-16-2026, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

Problem with that plan is Spain would have to be willing to give up the ball, and they do not like do that

That remains to be seen. I'm Spanish so it's no secret who I'll be rooting for. We'll see how it plays out.

dsvitak · 07-17-2026, 01:22 PM

https://www.sportscasting.com/news/c...rld-cup-final/

Someone help me to understand how Spain can be the statistical favorite, yet win 42% of the simulations above.

Jordan · 07-17-2026, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsvitak

https://www.sportscasting.com/news/c...rld-cup-final/

Someone help me to understand how Spain can be the statistical favorite, yet win 42% of the simulations above.

First off I wouldn't trust ChatGPT, but besides the point

What you're not accounting for is that a tie/draw after 90 mins is an outcome in the simulations

Cap · 07-17-2026, 01:46 PM

I hear Freedonia has a pretty good squad.

Rupert T. Firefly.

dsvitak · 07-17-2026, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

First off I wouldn't trust ChatGPT, but besides the point

What you're not accounting for is that a tie/draw after 90 mins is an outcome in the simulations

Ties are not an option in a WC final.

Jordan · 07-17-2026, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Ties are not an option in a WC final.

Ties are definitely an option for 90 minutes. In betting parlance, you can go and bet Spain or Draw or Argentina. Looking at Draftkings right now, for example, Spain is +125 to win on the 3 way, or 44% implied odds.

I don't know how ChatGPT's simulations are run, but that link has multiple sportsbook offers on the page where you could theoretically bet Draw on Sunday and win. It also refers to 12% of their simulations extending to Extra Time, which could only be reached if they "Draw." Don't know if that's part of their calculations since it isn't explained, but just trying to explain the why.

Cuz yeah, on it's face I get what you mean, if Spain is modeled to win the majority of the time, you would think the number is higher than 42%. But that is the why, the draw.

dsvitak · 07-17-2026, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

Ties are definitely an option for 90 minutes. In betting parlance, you can go and bet Spain or Draw or Argentina. Looking at Draftkings right now, for example, Spain is +125 to win on the 3 way, or 44% implied odds.

I don't know how ChatGPT's simulations are run, but that link has multiple sportsbook offers on the page where you could theoretically bet Draw on Sunday and win. It also refers to 12% of their simulations extending to Extra Time, which could only be reached if they "Draw." Don't know if that's part of their calculations since it isn't explained, but just trying to explain the why.

Cuz yeah, on it's face I get what you mean, if Spain is modeled to win the majority of the time, you would think the number is higher than 42%. But that is the why, the draw.

They specifically used the term "win." You are stating that this is wrong, and that it SHOULD be something like ahead-at-regular-time. Not even remotely the same thing.

Jordan · 07-17-2026, 08:22 PM

It's why I wouldn't try to understand what can't be understood from that link. Because it explains nothing. I tried my best to parse what I think it could mean but I don't know. It happens to align with betting markets which put the odds near the same percentage chance on a 3 way moneyline. But it is useless otherwise

Ragnar · 07-18-2026, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsvitak

https://www.sportscasting.com/news/c...rld-cup-final/

Someone help me to understand how Spain can be the statistical favorite, yet win 42% of the simulations above.

Spain is probably going to beat Argentina. It's not a given, of course, but I expect it. I couldn't care less about your sim.

Westheim · 07-19-2026, 03:08 PM

What a circus...

Cobra Mgr · 07-19-2026, 03:12 PM

Vamos a Espana!!!!!!

Cobra Mgr · 07-19-2026, 04:06 PM

Hey! Where's Dr. Teeth?!

Westheim · 07-19-2026, 04:13 PM

This half time show BS is wasting thousands of years of human lifetime. God-awful. I don't get what Americans find in this stuff...

Cobra Mgr · 07-19-2026, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Westheim

This half time show BS is wasting thousands of years of human lifetime. God-awful. I don't get what Americans find in this stuff...

It is the "gift" literally no one asked for. I only remember 3 half time shows ever worth my time. Prince at the Super Bowl and Mariah Carey at the NBA all star game. (Ain't ever been able to get that image out of .y head.)

07-15-2026, 09:23 PM	#242
low Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2010 Location: Wisconsin, USA Posts: 6,330	I'm glad England lost. Just because you have the best league in the world doesn't mean you should be the best team in the world. Ever since '90 or whenever it was they won it all they've annoyed me. __________________ My fictional team logos and uniforms

07-17-2026, 01:46 PM	#250
Cap Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Large Province in God's Country Posts: 8,068	I hear Freedonia has a pretty good squad. Rupert T. Firefly. __________________ "...There were Giants in Those Days.."

07-19-2026, 03:08 PM	#256
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 14,206	What a circus... __________________ Portland Raccoons, 96 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 * 2071 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

07-19-2026, 03:12 PM	#257
Cobra Mgr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Parts unknown Posts: 9,434	Vamos a Espana!!!!!! __________________ If a man is guilty 4 what goes on inside of his mind, then let me get the electric chair 4 all my future crimes. - Prince Batdance June 7, 1958 - Apr 21, 2016 Don't fall for the spin

07-19-2026, 04:06 PM	#258
Cobra Mgr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Parts unknown Posts: 9,434	Hey! Where's Dr. Teeth?! __________________ If a man is guilty 4 what goes on inside of his mind, then let me get the electric chair 4 all my future crimes. - Prince Batdance June 7, 1958 - Apr 21, 2016 Don't fall for the spin Last edited by Cobra Mgr; 07-19-2026 at 04:14 PM.

07-15-2026, 05:57 PM	#241
Shea6408 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2026 Posts: 48	England! England! England! It's NEVER Coming Home! I don't even hate England, really. But teams [Yankees, Cowboys, Celtics, Maple Leafs] that think they own their sport annoy me, and so I've become addicted to my quadrennial dose of schadenfreude. Or, in words of one syllable: hee, hee, hee. Hee-hee-hee-hee. There's nothing so hilarious as watching the Three Liions go behind and suddenly looking to Dan Burn to create scoring chances. (Tuchas, just because you can make five substitutions, that doesn't mean you have to.)

07-17-2026, 01:22 PM	#248
dsvitak Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,448	https://www.sportscasting.com/news/c...rld-cup-final/ Someone help me to understand how Spain can be the statistical favorite, yet win 42% of the simulations above.

07-17-2026, 08:22 PM	#254
Jordan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Chi Suburbs now... Posts: 2,055	It's why I wouldn't try to understand what can't be understood from that link. Because it explains nothing. I tried my best to parse what I think it could mean but I don't know. It happens to align with betting markets which put the odds near the same percentage chance on a 3 way moneyline. But it is useless otherwise

07-19-2026, 04:13 PM	#259
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 14,206	This half time show BS is wasting thousands of years of human lifetime. God-awful. I don't get what Americans find in this stuff... __________________ Portland Raccoons, 96 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 * 2071 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.