First Inning Blues (or something else beginning with B)

[Rigour]

This is not a complaint thread.

Just under one quarter of my games, my starter is getting absolutely blasted in the 1st inning and the game is over before it starts.
We're talking first 7 guys reaching base, games that start walk, walk, walk, grand slam, you name it.

My starters have real life ERAs in this season of 1.91, 2.04, 2.89, 2.98, 3.30 and 3.38.

50 games in and my starters' combined ERA is 5.88.

My questions:

1) Is this realistic to real world results?

2) I have found a visit to the mound sometimes helps. Does anyone have any other methods that may sometimes help? It has got so bad I am now warming a stopper at the first pitch, just to try and staunch the bleeding in the 1st inning to under 5 runs.

3) I play one pitch at bats, is that exacerbating the problem?

4) Do others just accept this, let their starters get rocked in the 1st, then assume they will settle down the rest of the way and that it will all get back to something near statistical realities? In other words, if my starter is about to face the lead-off batter for the second time in the 1st inning, am I wrong to pull him?

[Sweed]

Do you just hit "enter" to resolve all at bats?

I play one pitch and pay attention to batter tendencies, ie pull/spray ground balls and fly balls. On ground balls I usually will set the defense to the pull side.
Spray ground balls I normally play normal unless the spray chart shows a large amount of balls going to the spray side. Meaning I very rarely play a guy to spray a ground ball.

I also rarely use the "double play" setting. I turn plenty of DP's without it. I feel like my players have more time to get to the ball and don't let balls sneak through that could have been fielded. DP I use selectively when I need it to get me out of an inning.

Fly balls I tend to look at the spray chart (I turn on "show spray chart" on the fielding widget) to see if that verifies the player tendency. For fly balls I set my OF to cover the batter's tendency on both pull and spray.

I also will use "pitch around' against dangerous hitters with low eye skills, if my P has good to great control. I may use "pitch to contact" against batters with good eye skills but low contact if my P has good stuff.

All of this is relative to the situation at any time of the game. I do have times where I go through what you describe. When that happens it feels like it happens all of the time when in fact it is just normal randomness. I do think the game has a flow where success breeds success and failure breeds failure. I can't prove that, nor do I want to know from a developer how things work under the hood. Like you I try to use mound visits to break the cycle. In addition to that I use the techniques I've mentioned here to try to avoid those cycles and, if/when they come up, also to break them.

In my current season I got off to a hot start in April and May. My pitchers were dominating along with my hitting. June has been a different story with my guys coming back "down to earth". It all feels quite real to me.

As to question #4.. I try to let them pitch through it. I have one guy that seems to give up first inning runs "a lot" and will then settle down and not allow another run. I cuss him out a lot but always give him a chance.
My other SP's? It depends on how fresh my bullpen is, how important the current game is, and who I play next, etc. etc. Sometimes my P has to eat the innings and take a beating, which I don't like as it gets into that failure breeds failure cycle IMHO . But sometimes I feel like I have no choice.

Take all of this fwiw.

[Rigour]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Take all of this fwiw.

Well, what's it worth to me is a lot, so thanks.

I do in fact do all those things (move the outfielders, shift the IF, pitch around etc). But I do those things during all innings at something near what I suspect is the same rate, but I still end up with this observed "1st inning" effect.

Like you, I am skeptical about bias confirmation and also accept that random results can look very non-random to an imperfect observer. I formed this feeling over four full seasons, which is why I decided to start making a note of each game this season.

[Sweed]

Here's one stat sort you can look at to try to fine tune your data. Maybe you've already done this?

Statistics>Team Batting>Game State>innings 1-3 (unfortunately you cannot select just inning 1, but it's all we have)

Use the vs team pulldown and select your team. Here you can see what the league is hitting against you and use whatever sorts are available on that screen.
My game slash lines vs my club are..
Innings 1-3: .248/.308/.632/.670

League slash line:
Innings 1-3: .266/.333/.423/.756

From sortable team stats here is the slash vs my team and the league's slash.
vs. me Overall: .257/.329/.383/.712
League slash: .269/.340/.427/.767

I don't doubt you are seeing what you say you are seeing. With that in mind I'm just trying to think of ways to find data in the game that may help you drill down to more detail. Though options are limited.

Also figured since I play the same way you do I'd post my data. Note my inning 1-3 slash line is much better than the league's. Of course that doesn't help much since I can't narrow down to just inning one. About the only value is to compare mine to yours and get whatever you can from it. Maybe nothing? Or maybe it shows it's not necessarily an OOTP issue but an issue in your game for whatever reason? IDK, just trying to help by providing data from the only game I play. I hope it is of some help.

[Rigour]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Here's one stat sort you can look at to try to fine tune your data. Maybe you've already done this?

Statistics>Team Batting>Game State>innings 1-3 (unfortunately you cannot select just inning 1, but it's all we have)

Use the vs team pulldown and select your team. Here you can see what the league is hitting against you and use whatever sorts are available on that screen.
My game slash lines vs my club are..
Innings 1-3: .248/.308/.632/.670

League slash line:
Innings 1-3: .266/.333/.423/.756

From sortable team stats here is the slash vs my team and the league's slash.
vs. me Overall: .257/.329/.383/.712
League slash: .269/.340/.427/.767

I don't doubt you are seeing what you say you are seeing. With that in mind I'm just trying to think of ways to find data in the game that may help you drill down to more detail. Though options are limited.

Also figured since I play the same way you do I'd post my data. Note my inning 1-3 slash line is much better than the league's. Of course that doesn't help much since I can't narrow down to just inning one. About the only value is to compare mine to yours and get whatever you can from it. Maybe nothing? Or maybe it shows it's not necessarily an OOTP issue but an issue in your game for whatever reason? IDK, just trying to help by providing data from the only game I play. I hope it is of some help.

Thanks for this.
I think I will go one better, I'm going to just systematically record opponents' slash lines for the first inning for the next 100 games.

250 would be better, but I'll start with that.

My issue has been complicated because the game has just decided to injure my #1 (4 months) and #4 (4 weeks) starters, but heck, that's just random bad luck, nothing I can do about that.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Rigour

Thanks for this.
I think I will go one better, I'm going to just systematically record opponents' slash lines for the first inning for the next 100 games.

250 would be better, but I'll start with that.

My issue has been complicated because the game has just decided to injure my #1 (4 months) and #4 (4 weeks) starters, but heck, that's just random bad luck, nothing I can do about that.

In your shoes I think I'd do the same. Too bad you can only get that data manually, but is a good start to confirm what is going on. The only other thing I can think of based on the ERA's in your OP is, where do you rank defensively? What are your P's FIP- stats? I know your original concern is inning one blow ups, so this a bit beyond your original post, but I assume those large ERA numbers are for all innings? Of course that is only a 50 game sample so not defining, but certainly large enough to cause concern. With that in mind babip and team fielding efficiency are two things I would be looking at.

In my game, not documented but just going by the eye test, I wouldn't be surprised to have a long stretch of games where my ERA was quite large. Maybe not 50 games but over the course of a "bad month" (25-30 games)? I think it's possible that has occurred. Follow up a month where I played close to .700 ball with a month where I was right at .500 and I'd bet the farm my FIP-, fielding efficiency, ERA etc. has gone to pot. If not that my hitting has suffered a large decline for whatever reason. Or a combination of both.

With all of that said, I'm probably just throwing out ideas you have already thought of. Good luck moving forward in your game.

[Rigour]

Originally Posted by Sweed

In your shoes I think I'd do the same. Too bad you can only get that data manually, but is a good start to confirm what is going on. The only other thing I can think of based on the ERA's in your OP is, where do you rank defensively? What are your P's FIP- stats? I know your original concern is inning one blow ups, so this a bit beyond your original post, but I assume those large ERA numbers are for all innings? Of course that is only a 50 game sample so not defining, but certainly large enough to cause concern. With that in mind babip and team fielding efficiency are two things I would be looking at.

In my game, not documented but just going by the eye test, I wouldn't be surprised to have a long stretch of games where my ERA was quite large. Maybe not 50 games but over the course of a "bad month" (25-30 games)? I think it's possible that has occurred. Follow up a month where I played close to .700 ball with a month where I was right at .500 and I'd bet the farm my FIP-, fielding efficiency, ERA etc. has gone to pot. If not that my hitting has suffered a large decline for whatever reason. Or a combination of both.

With all of that said, I'm probably just throwing out ideas you have already thought of. Good luck moving forward in your game.

The fact that I have thought about them doesn't mean that your thoughts don't add value. It's encouraging to think OK an outside person is thinking the same thing I am.

It's not a burden to gather in the information, as I'm playing the games anyway, I just add some notes in a notebook.

I'd noticed the first inning phenomenon over the first few seasons, then I started to look for it. Looking for something, as you know, almost ensures there will be bias confirmation.

Yes, those large ERA numbers are for all innings, but that problem would definitely be magnified if I am pulling my starters too early - i.e before they have a chance to settle down in later innings.

I don't think the issue can be fielding. I have a gold glove at shortstop and a defensive centrefielder, and no huge deficiencies elsewhere, Also, those are the same guy in the first inning as they are the rest of the game (barring some limited substitutions/ double switches on pitch hitters)

I'm turning my suspicion now toward the catcher. But again, the problem is that he's the same catcher in the other innings.

First step is to dramatically increase my dataset and see if I'm imagining things. Back in a few weeks.

[Rigour]

Early days, but here's what I've observed so far:

1. The opponent batting average does seem to be higher in the first inning, but not unrealistically so, given real life first inning statistics. Still too early to tell because sample size right now is only 50 games.
.
2. Does seem to be streaky, but that may not be accurate, as humans have a tendency to see streaks where there is just randomness.

3. That said, the real enemy of my pitchers may have been revealed in the form of a spectacularly bad zone rating. Apparently, my CF's 81/100 range is not as good as I thought, and my gold-glove shortstop cannot compensate for poor teammates on either side. Alas, this problem will be very difficult to address before the off-season, but on the upside, with by far the worst record in MLB, we'll have the first draft pick.

[kq76]

I wouldn't put too much into OOTP's zone rating. I'm quite confident my team is one of the best fielding teams in the league, yet OOTP's zone rating almost always has them near the bottom.

Besides, just look at the league fielding stats report. Does it look like it correlates to winning? It doesn't to me. And look at the total. My total is a large plus while I'm pretty sure that, by definition, zone rating for a league should be zero.

That's not to say I think good fielding isn't important. It is important, clearly. I'd just advise not to get caught up trying to chase a high ranking zone rating. Just be wary that if a guy isn't stellar with the bat, he probably should be with the glove.

If you really do think you have a bad defense and don't really want to fix it, maybe prioritize strikeout and flyball pitchers. Groundball pitchers, by contrast, work far better with a good defense than without.

[Rigour]

Originally Posted by kq76

I wouldn't put too much into OOTP's zone rating. I'm quite confident my team is one of the best fielding teams in the league, yet OOTP's zone rating almost always has them near the bottom.

.

Thanks for this.
Looking at the fielding ratings of my team's members, the wildly bad zone rating does seem to be simply a miscalculation.