Accuracy

[Rain King]

Garlon posts career results because they are a much better test. They cut down significantly on the smaller sample size noise.

Season stats SHOULD have significant variance. If they don't, to me, that shows that the game is cheating somehow.

[Garlon]

Regarding accuracy, I posted the link to the binomial calculator. What was asked is what is the deviation you get in OOTP. Since OOTP results are probabilistic you can figure that out for yourself with the calculator. You did not specify 1 Standard deviation, 2 standard deviations, or anything. So, your question actually requires infinite trials and as Ran King replied you have asked an impossible question. If you want to know with 1 SD, then use the binomial calculator until you get +/-34%.

According to the binomial probability calculator a .264 hitter over 512 AB will bat exactly .264 about 4% of the time going 135 for 512. The batter has an 83% chance of at least batting 125 for 512, which is a .244 batting average, and has an 85% chance of batting less than .283 going 145 for 512. Basically +/-10 hits get you 1 standard deviation.

Teams get about 5400 AB in a season, in which case 1 SD is about +/-35 hits over that sample.



actionjackson, you have it confused regarding BABIP. Batters do indeed have a BABIP ability. It is pitchers who really do not have control over BABIP.

[David Watts]

How accurate is it for teams to carry only one catcher on their 25 man roster? How about only one catcher on their 25 man roster and 0 on their reserve roster? How accurate is it for a team to have Corbin Carroll catch when the only catcher on the team is fatigued? Oh and how accurate is it for a team to only have 1 catcher period, when their are 15 to 20 of them listed as free agents? Not even sure how people play with high fatigue when rosters get set up with only one catcher? Fast simming for rates is my guess.

How accurate is for relief pitchers to get 30 or 40 appearances without a start when playing the 20's and 30's? Will anything ever be done to rid the game of bullpens during the early years of baseball?

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by David Watts

How accurate is it for teams to carry only one catcher on their 25 man roster? How about only one catcher on their 25 man roster and 0 on their reserve roster? How accurate is it for a team to have Corbin Carroll catch when the only catcher on the team is fatigued? Oh and how accurate is it for a team to only have 1 catcher period, when their are 15 to 20 of them listed as free agents? Not even sure how people play with high fatigue when rosters get set up with only one catcher? Fast simming for rates is my guess.

How accurate is for relief pitchers to get 30 or 40 appearances without a start when playing the 20's and 30's? Will anything ever be done to rid the game of bullpens during the early years of baseball?

OOTP allows you a literally exponential number of setting combinations.

All of those potential setting combinations are not guaranteed to play nice together.

If the game has certain scenarios that do not currently work well, I would recommend providing criticism in a constructive manner within a thread specifically dedicated to that topic.

Otherwise, I would advise you to instead play the game that manages your specific scenario better (and let us all know what game that is).

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Garlon

actionjackson, you have it confused regarding BABIP. Batters do indeed have a BABIP ability. It is pitchers who really do not have control over BABIP.

I respectfully disagree. Hitters may have (slightly) more control than pitchers, when it comes to BABIP, but I don't believe in BABIP ability. I think the reason hitters have more control is that pitchers can't do anything once the ball leaves their hand. That lack of control is compounded by the hitter's ability to damage a mistake, but sometimes hitters miss mistakes. Sometimes they get fooled by a backup slider, which is a pitch that the pitcher didn't finish, and thus made a mistake on.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr is a perfect example. The dude hits the ball as hard as anyone I've ever seen. His BABIPs over his six seasons in the league:

2019: .308 (MLB BABIP: .298)

2020: .282 (MLB BABIP: .292)

2021: .313 (MLB BABIP: .292)

2022: .289 (MLB BABIP: .290)

2023: .277 (MLB BABIP: .297)

2024: .342 (MLB BABIP: .291)

Career: .304 (MLB BABIP rough guestimate during his career: .293)

The league as a whole has a very tight range of outcomes in this category, but individual hitters can range wildly year over year. There's a 65-point gap between best and worst in Vlad's case, which is a ton compared with the eight point gap that the league had in that time. Some years, more screaming line drives find gloves, instead of gaps, and more hard hit groundballs murder worms, and go for outs, rather than getting through the infield. The ball's coming off the bat just as hard, but it's not necessarily doing what he wants it to do. If there was an ability, or repeatable skill, his BABIP range would be much tighter, and he would be more consistent in the overall. At least that's how I'm reading it.

[Garlon]

BABIP

Derek Jeter career: .350
MLB average during career: .298

[MathBandit]

Yeah, the idea that BABIP is a hitter skill is true for OOTP but not meaningfully irl, but it's a limitation of the fairly outdated engine/methodology OOTP uses.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Garlon

BABIP

Derek Jeter career: .350
MLB average during career: .298

Derek Jeter seasons: 20
Derek Jeter seasons with a BABIP between .340 and .360: 7
Derek Jeter seasons with a BABIP between .325 and .375: 11

You have to go as comically wide as .310 - .390 to capture even just 15 of his 20 seasons.

[Garlon]

BABIP

Ty Cobb career: .383
League average during career: .286

Cobb must have been really lucky then.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Garlon

BABIP

Ty Cobb career: .383
League average during career: .286

Cobb must have been really lucky then.

Ty Cobb seasons with BABIP: 16
Ty Cobb seasons with BABIP between .358 - .408: 9

Not that the game Cobb played has anything to do with baseball as we know it today of course so isn't relevant for this discussion, but nice to see even he has barely half of his seasons in a 50-point range.

[Garlon]

The league BABIP curing the career of Ty Cobb was .286. If we go 25% higher than that we end up at .358.

He had a BABIP of .358 or higher in 16 seasons.

Doing something 25% better than league average is indeed a skill.

Take a look at his BABIP in his prime from 1909-1919:
.399, .410, .443, .424, .414, .389, .397, .393, .400, .398, .400

You guys are assuming that if BABIP is an ability it will be constant throughout the entire career of a player instead of changing like any other skill like HR rate or K rate or BB rate.


The BABIP model works throughout the entirety of baseball history. This is the basis of DIPS.

This is how you calculate probability using the log5 method for outcomes. There is nothing outdated about the engine.

[actionjackson]

Happy New Year, guys.

[LansdowneSt]

Happy New Year right back at ya, actionjackson!

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

Happy New Year right back at ya, actionjackson!

I see we're in a number of posts duel!!! En garde!!! I'm one behind now!!!

[Rain King]

You all are punking with this Hitter BABIP stuff, right?

RIGHT?

[LansdowneSt]

Yes, while BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is often associated with luck, there's a growing understanding that it also reflects a degree of skill. While some of it is influenced by luck, hitters and pitchers can influence their BABIP through their skillset.

How BABIP reflects skill:
-Hitters can influence BABIP by impacting the quality of contact they make.
-Hitters with higher exit velocities, better launch angles, and a knack for finding holes in the defense are more likely to produce hits on balls in play.
-Pitchers can affect BABIP by inducing weak contact or generating ground balls.
-Pitchers who consistently get batters to hit soft grounders or weak fly balls are more likely to see a lower BABIP.

Batted ball profile:
-Hitters with a higher percentage of line drives or hard-hit balls tend to have higher BABIPs, indicating a skill in hitting the ball hard and directing it into gaps.
-Hitters who consistently hit above or below .300 for their BABIP are not simply getting lucky. They are actually leveraging a skill that needs to be accounted for when analyzing their performance.

Defensive shifts:
-A hitter's ability to adapt to defensive shifts and hit the ball to the opposite field can also influence their BABIP.

Factors beyond pure skill:
-Luck plays a role: While skill is a factor, a certain degree of luck is involved in whether a ball finds a hole in the defense or gets caught.

Fielding ability:
-The defensive ability of the opposing team can influence a batter's BABIP.

Park factors:
-Some ballparks are more conducive to hitting than others, and this can affect BABIP.

In conclusion, while luck plays a role, BABIP is not just a matter of chance. Hitters and pitchers can exert influence through their skillset, impacting the quality of contact and the likelihood of producing hits on balls in play.

There are a bunch of citations if people want to repeat the query and read them all. I don't care who believes what. I've reached my own firm conclusion... it both tastes great and is less filling. If y'all enjoy arguing, continue on, I'll hold your beer.

[Edward ohare]

Originally Posted by Garlon

Well, I play 1871-2023 games and players are accurate.

Player ratings and based on rate stats and results are determined by the log5 method, so you do get great results. There are no restrictions on randomness, there is only probability.

Pick a player and I will post results of a saved game.

You may want to go through the first post of this thread:

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=353034

Evan Longoria 2010, 2014, 2019
Miguel Cabrera 2006, 2011, 2015, 2019
Andre Galarraga 1987, 1996
Ray Knight 1979, 1982, 1987

[Garlon]

I will give you career values from a save.

Player: real vs OOTP
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS and OPS+

Evan Longoria: .264/.333/.471/.804 and 119 vs .275/.342/.477/.819 and 120

Miguel Cabrera: .306/.382/.518/.901 and 140 vs .313/.379/.520/.899 and 147

Andres Galarraga: .288/.347/.499/.846 and 119 vs .285/.342/.489/.831 and 119

Ray Knight: .271/.321/.390/.711 and 99 vs .280/.327/.401/.728 and 99

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Garlon

I will give you career values from a save.

Player: real vs OOTP
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS and OPS+

Evan Longoria: .264/.333/.471/.804 and 119 vs .275/.342/.477/.819 and 120

Miguel Cabrera: .306/.382/.518/.901 and 140 vs .313/.379/.520/.899 and 147

Andres Galarraga: .288/.347/.499/.846 and 119 vs .285/.342/.489/.831 and 119

Ray Knight: .271/.321/.390/.711 and 99 vs .280/.327/.401/.728 and 99

Miggy is the interesting one to me there, since the triple slashline matches almost perfectly but there's a sizable jump in OPS+. Kinda neat.

[Edward ohare]

Originally Posted by Garlon

I will give you career values from a save.

Player: real vs OOTP
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS and OPS+

Evan Longoria: .264/.333/.471/.804 and 119 vs .275/.342/.477/.819 and 120

Miguel Cabrera: .306/.382/.518/.901 and 140 vs .313/.379/.520/.899 and 147

Andres Galarraga: .288/.347/.499/.846 and 119 vs .285/.342/.489/.831 and 119

Ray Knight: .271/.321/.390/.711 and 99 vs .280/.327/.401/.728 and 99

You didn't answer the question you invited. Why not just post a screen shot of the stats including the requested years? That's probably less effort than typing out a post.