Q&A: How do you construct the optimal lineup?

kq76 · 07-18-2024, 03:45 AM

Q: How do you construct the optimal lineup?

A: There are many theories on this. Traditionally you'd place your speediest hitter with some decent hitting ability first, a contact hitter 2nd, your best overall hitter third, your best power hitter fourth, and the rest by some general offensive metric. Some say they just order players by descending OBA. Some say it doesn't matter that much, that you might as well select the order at random. Some will even bat their best bat leadoff, even if it wastes their SLG, just to get them as many PAs as possible.

The prevailing modern thought, however, probably goes something like the following:

Think of your lineup spots in groups:

2 - 1 of your best hitters, but not necessarily with power
4 - 1 of your best hitters, and with power
1 - high OBA guy, but without power, preferably with speed

5 - 1 of your next best hitters, but without power
3 - 1 of your next best hitters, but with power
6 - 1 of your next best hitters, but preferably with speed

7 - next best hitter, preferably high BA / low K if you have a base-stealer ahead of them
8 - if DH, then next best hitter; if no DH, then pitcher
9 - if DH, then worst hitter, hopefully with some OBA; if no DH, then not pitcher (second leadoff hitter)

So your 3 & 4 hitters are your power guys, but your 2 & 5 hitters are maybe better overall hitters than their groupmates. Prioritize OBA over speed for 1. Your speed guys are preferably not in front of power as that can be a waste, but in front of high BA / low K. Your worst hitter bats 9th, pitcher 8th if no DH. All this largely follows what The Book has to say (pg 132).

When I say best hitter, you can take that to mean either GPA-wise (GPA=1.75xOBA+SLG), wOBA-wise, or whatever metric you prefer.

Some other considerations:

-Try to intersperse your lefties and switch-hitters among your righties so lefty relievers won't be as effective against you
-If someone has otherwise favourable splits (e.g., a RHB with good splits vs a RHP), maybe move them up
-If you have someone who hits into a lot of DPs, don't bat them 3rd, maybe bat them 1st
-Someone who Ks a lot isn't necessarily a bad player, just don't have them behind a good base-stealer
-Maybe re-think everything if your lineup isn't strong or doesn't fit the mold

I'd also definitely recommend making use of the Custom Lineups pulldown to save lineups. For example, I'll save "vR" and "vL" lineups (based on opposing pitcher handedness), but then if a key player is injured I'll save further lineups like "vR w/o Player X".

Dorfmann · 07-18-2024, 09:05 AM

Leadoff is my best OBP guy that doesn't also have good power. I don't necessarily care if he has a lot of speed.

2 and 3 are my best overall hitters

4-6, I want decent power

7-9 are my worst hitters, and I prefer 9 to have speed

I also want to alternate LHB and RHB as best as possible.

Brad K · 07-18-2024, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

Prioritize OBA over speed for 1.

Computer managers prefer speed but I agree with you. And if two guys are equal in OBP, put the player who walks more and hits less in the #1 slot.

Daniel_09 · 07-18-2024, 09:16 AM

1 - hitter who doesn't strike out much and can catch bases on balls, high contact, high avoid K, high eye.

4- The player with the highest power but who is competent in all other attributes, high power, decent eye, decent contact.

2- The best player in terms of ratings. High contact, high avoid K, high Eye, High power, High gap power.

3 - second player with more power but who has better attributes than the 5th bat. high power, decent eye, decent contact.

5- third best player with more power but with lower ratings than the third bat. high power, decent eye, decent contact.

6 -8 the three remaining players with the best balance of ratings between contact, power, avoid k, eye.

9 - the player with the least contact and power of the entire lineup, I usually use this position for glove first, catcher, CF or SS players.

Guthrien · 07-21-2024, 12:28 PM

There are some decent statistical takes out there about your #9 NOT being your worst hitter, perhaps better than 6-8 depending on how your talent distribution is. It does seem to work better for me, but seem is all I can claim without measuring runs created after thousands of at bats. The science of sabermetric lineup construction is another fun theory to obsess over.

OutS|der · 07-22-2024, 11:32 AM

I try to follow convention but like to break it by putting my best overall hitter leadoff.

Since batting first gets the most at bats I'll always put my best batter there

md40022 · 07-22-2024, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutS|der

I try to follow convention but like to break it by putting my best overall hitter leadoff.

Since batting first gets the most at bats I'll always put my best batter there

This has always been an interesting viewpoint. It makes all the sense in the world. Over 162 games the #1 spot is going to get more plate appearances than any other spot, so wouldn't you want your absolute best hitter there, regardless of any and all other info.

I personally don't do that with my lineup construction, but I've always felt that the logic behind it really seemed to make sense.

tts0 · 07-23-2024, 07:20 AM

So, once I looked up how often a player hits in their exact lineup spot and it turns out that only #1, #2 and #3 do that most of the time. So these guys should be specialised - leadoff just get on base no matter what, hopefully with some good baserunning, #2 also on base guy but preferably via contact and #3 a guy who can drive those runs in.

#4 is parcitulary tricky as they hit cleanup as often as leadoff, so this guy has to be the most versatile hitter or simply that OPS darling type.

The rest of the lineup hit ether #1, #2, #3 most of the time so probably jack of all trades (and master of none) type of guys are preferable there with #5 hitter being some sort of protection for a #4, so the opposition doesnt IBB them al the time.

Brad K · 07-23-2024, 08:02 AM

Step One of my answer is totally boring: I ask the computer manager.

For Step Two I correct what I see as errors. This usually involves the computer manager having a base stealer in the lead off spot even if he has a below average OBP. I sometimes hit such a player ninth even though I don't use DH.

Also the computer manager pushes some LHB way down in the order vs LH SP. I sometimes move them up a spot figuring it's likely at some poing there will be a RH RP in the game.

NoOne · 07-25-2024, 02:03 AM

One of the more interesting articles i read but can no longer find, was about rbi opportunities per spot in lineup. That is a major guideline to how i approach a lineup.

Basically , i want to match talent to the contexts most likely seen by each position in the linupe.

Context - only playoff caliber levels of team talent and a modern statistical environment or roughly modern.. primarily number of HR not being 1000-2000/year or otherwise very low. wher is that ine? not sure, but figure 4000+/year for a 30t 162g league, this is probably good.

#1 is a waste of power due to low rbi-opportunities (they don't see them EVER intheir first AB and that has a profoudn effect) but high RS potential. If your best obp guy is also a raker, don't even think of putting him here. Total waste of money as far as what creates value in a players contract demands. is it nice to hit 20+HR here? sure, but you better have power bats all the way to #6 or #7 in lineup to justify wasting it here..

#2 is a bit of a transition slot in line from #1, but it can make more use of power, but still quite a bit less than the big raking spots. Again, very difficult to justify putting real power here (30+ HR?) when it is better served batting #3-4-5. But, if you are stacked 6-7 deep, you can justify it.

#3-4-5 are your prime raking positions, and the futher you can extend that with power hitters deeper into lineup, the better. Based on averages of the sample data, #3 and #5 get similar number of rbi-oppportuniteis and #4 gets the most. so barring huge differences in power numbers, i'm putting higher obp power guys at the top and regressing from there. Lots of exceptions to this based on exact talent of the players invovled.

After that it's simply accruing as many power bats or otherwise competent bats you can find and afford, as well as stashing the pitcher or defensive wizards with little value in their bats. Usually these guys have severe weaknesses, if they are your 4th or 6th best power bat etc.

I like to have a 2nd high-quality leadoff bat. This is a luxury for large market sizes with high revenue. these guys don't break the bank and the bottom 3 hitters have significantly reduced PA and RBI-opportunities the deeper you go (i.e. lower ROI)..

It really keeps the offense humming at a high clip of the leadoff guy can consistently get on and i don't want to rely on a AAA callup, some mediocre bench player, or shifting bats that are better suited for 2-3-4-5-6 etc. for injury replacements. Preferably one the leadoff guys also plays SS with great defense.

I try not to rely on a Catcher for important spots in lineups, and few will demand that you do. My biggest issue on that is more about how the game handles resting catchers based on depth.. maybe this was fixed? but when a weak backup catcher goes in they are not shifted down to 8 or 9, so if you have a great bat at C, every third day your lineup is turned into a turd with a crap bat in an important spot. Less of a problem for other positions and it can either be avoided with off-days or rare enough to be less concerned about the effect

Always consider offesne and defense as mutually exclusive except for the fact you do have to cover all 8 positions.

Ther's no reason to pay more per expected runs created just because they play SS or C. This will only reduce efficiency of spending for runs. Money is oil, not fuel. Itneeds to be distributed properly and less waste = more wins.

Don't waste 10s of millions on the "best" bench. they play so little. Poor ROI.

Depth should be at AAA where it is cheap and likely very similar in quality to a typical bench player in MLB. in fact, your prospects will likely bet better players on average, and the little ML experience seems to be a positive factor for them, too.

Why pay 5-10M for a crap player to sit on the bench (or play 25% of the time in a platoon) that's only slightly better than a minimum salary from your mil? Especially since in any context you care they won't play much on a talented team capable of the WS. In seasons with extreme amount of injuries there's no escape from that no matter how you plant or what depth you have. "depth" wouldn't be your depth players if they were good enough to play everyday -- someone would have paid them to do so, otherwise, right? these are borderline trash players..don't believe they add much value compared to a very similar cheap similarly rated AAA player, because it isn't true. Certainly not worth millions of dolars more when you can spend that elsewhere with FAR greater ROI.

Maximize 3-4 SP, 3-4 RP, 4-7bats - bigger markets can expand on the bats and weaker markets may not be able to afford even the lower values. Have good low cost options at AAA for an amount of injuries that don't 100% derail the season. If they don't currently have a ML contract, even better.

the high end talent is worth the money and makes the biggest difference to your team's resulting record. Learn how many of those contracts you can afford at once and maximize that as often as you can while mixing in club-controlled contracts to exceed those limits in short-term contexts, but always have an exit strategy before you become finaicially handcuffed and your team absolutely sucks for 3-5 years due ot that lack of planning.

Oh, common sense adjustments for LHP.RHP. But, usually the guys you pay the big bucks for don't shift too far.

also, not that better teams are not average. so looking at the averages is notalways the best thing to compare. E.g. with rbi opportunities, exper more opprtunities to go deeper into lineup on a good team than you see with averages. if a team averages 5 times throught the lineup vs 4 that will make difference in the averages, i expect. But you want your RBI bats where they are most useful, nonetheless.

anecdote --in a high power offesne, #5 seems to get more rbi opportunities than #3 despite fewer PA (what is it? 4-5% fewer PA per step in lineup? it is an effect to consider regardless of exact value), but could be wrong... .

Matt Arnold · 07-25-2024, 05:13 AM

Give me 9 players, and I'll give you an order for them. Swap out someone from that list, and the order might completely change around. I don't really like putting rules like "don't hit a power guy leadoff", since depending on the lineup you're putting together, sometimes they fit like 90% of the rest of my rules and just make the whole lineup flow better. Is an Acuna leadoff HR partially wasted? Sure, in a sense. But if dropping him down in the lineup means you're hitting a low-OBP guy ahead of him, that doesn't really help you either.

My personal rules:
-Avoid as much as possible 3+ same handedness hitters in a row. Obviously not always possible (if you have 7 righties in against a tough lefty, basically just make sure the 2 lefties in the lineup aren't back to back).
-Don't put good hitters too low. All the above posts from people are great strategy, but if it means your 3rd best hitter is in the 7 spot, then you're putting your lineup together wrong. This is sort of an extension of "put your best hitter #1". Sure, sometimes you drop them down a spot if that balances better, but if you have good hitters too low, find a new order.
-After that, generally try to keep OBP higher, and slugging lower. A walk then a double is better than a double then a walk.
-Try to avoid a speed guy in front of someone who is just empty power (ie. Dunn/Schwarber TTO guys). You don't get as much from stealing there. But again, if the OBP and other hitting values make it worth it, I'll violate this if needed.
-If no DH, then I'd generally prefer my 8 hitter to be a power hitter. If there's no DH, then I I want the empty power bat to be hitting right before the "bad" hitters in my lineup, wherever that gap is.
-After that, it depends on what sort of team I have. Is this an all-star level lineup, where Cal Raleigh is the worst hitter on the team? Or am I putting together the current Rockies lineup? If the lineup itself isn't as good, then I might occasionally violate some of the above to set up for some small ball type plays. If I'm fighting tooth and nail for every run, then trying to think about who has speed, who can bunt, can make some sense.
-I do like hitting the pitcher 8th, generally speaking if my obvious #8 hitter is like a low slugging hitter. if they have some power, I'll keep them 8th. But it's such a pain to like have a guy on first, 2 out, your #8 hitter is up, and they walk or hit a weak single. Sure, you can start with your leadoff hitter next inning, but anytime I have 2 guys on base I want to have a chance to score them.

kq76 · 07-25-2024, 06:14 AM

Lots of good stuff in the replies. I added some to the OP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

-If no DH, then I'd generally prefer my 8 hitter to be a power hitter. If there's no DH, then I I want the empty power bat to be hitting right before the "bad" hitters in my lineup, wherever that gap is.

Did you mean for one to be with DH and one to be without? Otherwise I don't understand the condition. I do like the point that you want your power bat who doesn't do much else in front of your bad hitters since they won't contribute much anyways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

-I do like hitting the pitcher 8th, generally speaking if my obvious #8 hitter is like a low slugging hitter. if they have some power, I'll keep them 8th.

I'm a bit confused by this as well. And if they don't have power are you putting them somewhere else? I get the feeling you're revisiting the first quoted point, but contradicting it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

But it's such a pain to like have a guy on first, 2 out, your #8 hitter is up, and they walk or hit a weak single. Sure, you can start with your leadoff hitter next inning, but anytime I have 2 guys on base I want to have a chance to score them.

True, but you're probably going to have that problem somewhere though, right? Or are you making the point that you greatly prefer empty power bats at the backend of your lineup vs filling it with weak single hitters? If so, I think that's very interesting. Personally, I try to fill out the backend of my lineup with decent hitters who are also great defenders, and usually that means they have less power, which also has the bonus of them usually being cheaper because of the no power. But I definitely see the point that often late in the order you wish you just had a decent shot at leaving the yard with a home run.

Matt Arnold · 07-25-2024, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

Lots of good stuff in the replies. I added some to the OP.

All this is just my personal takes. It's often contradictory, yeah

Quote:

Did you mean for one to be with DH and one to be without? Otherwise I don't understand the condition. I do like the point that you want your power bat who doesn't do much else in front of your bad hitters since they won't contribute much anyways.

Yeah, if there's no DH, then the gap between your regular hitters and your pitcher is massive, so I'd usually put the power bat 8th. If there is a DH, then the gap between talent levels is much smaller, so I'd position my best bad power hitter ideally ahead of wherever in the lineup I feel there's a gap in talent levels. ie. maybe they hit 8th in front of someone who should be platooned, or they go 7th in front of my terrible catcher and defensive SS, etc...

Quote:

I'm a bit confused by this as well. And if they don't have power are you putting them somewhere else? I get the feeling you're revisiting the first quoted point, but contradicting it.

Similar to the point above. Basically in non-DH worlds, my worst hitter (the de facto #8 hitter), if they're someone with no power, just empty singles and walks, I'd often flip them and put them 9th, and then my #7 would be the player with slightly more power. But if my de facto #8 player has some slugging to them, I don't have as much interest in putting them 9th, and would rather keep them 8th.

Quote:

True, but you're probably going to have that problem somewhere though, right? Or are you making the point that you greatly prefer empty power bats at the backend of your lineup vs filling it with weak single hitters? If so, I think that's very interesting. Personally, I try to fill out the backend of my lineup with decent hitters who are also great defenders, and usually that means they have less power, which also has the bonus of them usually being cheaper because of the no power. But I definitely see the point that often late in the order you wish you just had a decent shot at leaving the yard with a home run.

Yeah, I mean everything especially about the 6-8 or 6-9 hitters is entirely situational on your team and situation. That's why nothing in my personal lineup construction is ever set in stone. Sometimes you can easily run into a case where in one lineup setup, someone is your "natural" 8 hitter. But then you add someone else to the mix, and suddenly they shift up to 6th. Or you have someone who fits in like either leadoff or 6th in your lineup - basically if I have enough good players to slip them down in the lineup, that works. But if I am sitting one of my better guys out, maybe they just edge out other guys in OBP and make sense at the top.

Reed · 07-25-2024, 07:33 AM

Years ago I read an article by Bill James on why not to put your best hitter (power+average) #3 and put them number #4.
If you bat them #4 then their first AB will be with someone on base or they will be leading off the second inning. In both cases they will get better pitches to hit and be in a spot to cause more damage.
If you bat them 3rd, about half the time their first AB will be with 2 outs and no one on base. In that case, the pitcher will be more selective in what he throws.

He suggests putting an average hitter in the 3 spot.

Google— Bill James, lineup construction. Good article at fangraphs.

Brad K · 07-25-2024, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reed

Years ago I read an article by Bill James on why not to put your best hitter (power+average) #3 and put them number #4.
If you bat them #4 then their first AB will be with someone on base or they will be leading off the second inning. In both cases they will get better pitches to hit and be in a spot to cause more damage.
If you bat them 3rd, about half the time their first AB will be with 2 outs and no one on base. In that case, the pitcher will be more selective in what he throws.

He suggests putting an average hitter in the 3 spot.

Google— Bill James, lineup construction. Good article at fangraphs.

Don't know if the seeing better pitches or being pitched around situation applies to OOTP. Given all the emphasis on matching historic output I have my doubt.

kq76 · 07-25-2024, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reed

Years ago I read an article by Bill James on why not to put your best hitter (power+average) #3 and put them number #4.
If you bat them #4 then their first AB will be with someone on base or they will be leading off the second inning. In both cases they will get better pitches to hit and be in a spot to cause more damage.
If you bat them 3rd, about half the time their first AB will be with 2 outs and no one on base. In that case, the pitcher will be more selective in what he throws.

He suggests putting an average hitter in the 3 spot.

Google— Bill James, lineup construction. Good article at fangraphs.

I gather you're talking about this article? I'd like to see the quote of what James said because, while I agree with the general idea, I struggle with the details. And by that I mean, if someone is on base and the opposition's best hitter is at the plate, I'm being extremely selective with my pitches. But if they're leading off, I'm not worrying too much as a solo shot isn't going to kill me. And even if they only just get on base there's a decent chance they'll get knocked in by someone behind them. So I won't be as selective in that situation. However, if there are 2 outs and no one on base, I might be a little selective as even if they only just get on base, there's a good chance I'll get out of the inning unscathed by getting a follow up batter out.

I did find the following quote from another article:

Quote:

Early rules did not require the batting order to be announced prior to game time. Before this was changed in the early eighties, Anson would sometimes wait and see if the first two men got on. If they did not, he would bat; if not, he would wait and hit in the next inning.

I do wonder if it's a misquote or if James did say exactly that. If the two got on before him (or even if just 1 did) I'd think Anson would want to bat. If they didn't get on, however, then I think he'd wait so he'd like get better pitches to hit and have a better chance of someone driving him home.

Reed · 07-25-2024, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

I gather you're talking about this article? I'd like to see the quote of what James said because, while I agree with the general idea, I struggle with the details. And by that I mean, if someone is on base and the opposition's best hitter is at the plate, I'm being extremely selective with my pitches. But if they're leading off, I'm not worrying too much as a solo shot isn't going to kill me. And even if they only just get on base there's a decent chance they'll get knocked in by someone behind them. So I won't be as selective in that situation. However, if there are 2 outs and no one on base, I might be a little selective as even if they only just get on base, there's a good chance I'll get out of the inning unscathed by getting a follow up batter out.

I did find the following quote from another article:

I do wonder if it's a misquote or if James did say exactly that. If the two got on before him (or even if just 1 did) I'd think Anson would want to bat. If they didn't get on, however, then I think he'd wait so he'd like get better pitches to hit and have a better chance of someone driving him home.

Yes that is the article I was referring to. Selective was my term but maybe not a good one. The main point I was getting to is

“One of the problems is that teams often put their highest OBP batter in the third position, but the #3 spot is the one LEAST likely to lead off the second inning. James said it, others agreed, and The Book confirms it. In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions.”

I do agree with Brad that this might not apply so much to OOTP though.

Larryk007 · 07-25-2024, 10:22 AM

Matt:
Great response, but can OOTP take some of this thread and make a manager (AI) that has these types of preferred lineups? I just have never figured out why my "ask manager" for lineups is so unpredictable. What are the things we can do to have more predictable manager-AI lineups?

Does manager type play into it, does manager strategy play into it? I thought originally that manager type, "traditional" would give me the OBP lead off and power in the 4 spot, and an unorthodox would give me random lineups.........knowing this would help select the manager AI.

NoOne · 07-26-2024, 09:29 PM

i definitely want my best power guy with decent bat hitting 4th rather than 3rd. Not necesarily the best 'hitter' as far as BA. I don't value BA too highly but your best players in years that matter should hit above league BA. 30pts higher type difference can make me put someone with less power over someone with more and low BA.

I don't know if "average" is the best way to describe what you shoudl put in the 3rd spot. They are still going to get more PA by a significant margen over say 6+. The number of rbi-opportunities for 3 and 5 average out in a similar way despite the #3 spot getting more PA over the season.

When i have loaded teams that seems to play out too in the simulator. #3's extra PA make up for whatever the math is on the chance of 2 outs, nobody on in the first inning X% of the time... the effect is also not devestating it seems.

Bill james isn't even a math major, is he? LOL. I like how his name helped push better metrics to be used, but WAR is trash and they way he tries to frame things seems poor. WAR is only useful when comparing really crappy players for a bench spot or a team like the A's or Marlins that refuse to spend money on players while the owner milks the national TV contract money and holds local taxpayers ransom with threats to move.

Instead of being centered around replacement level, it'd be far more useful if it was centered around a typical WS-caliber team's talent.

Who cares about mediocre years? Those are lost before they start. You don't want to maximize wins in those seasons, you want to maximize development and anthing else that feeds the bank for the future.

07-25-2024, 02:03 AM	#10
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,268 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	One of the more interesting articles i read but can no longer find, was about rbi opportunities per spot in lineup. That is a major guideline to how i approach a lineup. Basically , i want to match talent to the contexts most likely seen by each position in the linupe. Context - only playoff caliber levels of team talent and a modern statistical environment or roughly modern.. primarily number of HR not being 1000-2000/year or otherwise very low. wher is that ine? not sure, but figure 4000+/year for a 30t 162g league, this is probably good. #1 is a waste of power due to low rbi-opportunities (they don't see them EVER intheir first AB and that has a profoudn effect) but high RS potential. If your best obp guy is also a raker, don't even think of putting him here. Total waste of money as far as what creates value in a players contract demands. is it nice to hit 20+HR here? sure, but you better have power bats all the way to #6 or #7 in lineup to justify wasting it here.. #2 is a bit of a transition slot in line from #1, but it can make more use of power, but still quite a bit less than the big raking spots. Again, very difficult to justify putting real power here (30+ HR?) when it is better served batting #3-4-5. But, if you are stacked 6-7 deep, you can justify it. #3-4-5 are your prime raking positions, and the futher you can extend that with power hitters deeper into lineup, the better. Based on averages of the sample data, #3 and #5 get similar number of rbi-oppportuniteis and #4 gets the most. so barring huge differences in power numbers, i'm putting higher obp power guys at the top and regressing from there. Lots of exceptions to this based on exact talent of the players invovled. After that it's simply accruing as many power bats or otherwise competent bats you can find and afford, as well as stashing the pitcher or defensive wizards with little value in their bats. Usually these guys have severe weaknesses, if they are your 4th or 6th best power bat etc. I like to have a 2nd high-quality leadoff bat. This is a luxury for large market sizes with high revenue. these guys don't break the bank and the bottom 3 hitters have significantly reduced PA and RBI-opportunities the deeper you go (i.e. lower ROI).. It really keeps the offense humming at a high clip of the leadoff guy can consistently get on and i don't want to rely on a AAA callup, some mediocre bench player, or shifting bats that are better suited for 2-3-4-5-6 etc. for injury replacements. Preferably one the leadoff guys also plays SS with great defense. I try not to rely on a Catcher for important spots in lineups, and few will demand that you do. My biggest issue on that is more about how the game handles resting catchers based on depth.. maybe this was fixed? but when a weak backup catcher goes in they are not shifted down to 8 or 9, so if you have a great bat at C, every third day your lineup is turned into a turd with a crap bat in an important spot. Less of a problem for other positions and it can either be avoided with off-days or rare enough to be less concerned about the effect Always consider offesne and defense as mutually exclusive except for the fact you do have to cover all 8 positions. Ther's no reason to pay more per expected runs created just because they play SS or C. This will only reduce efficiency of spending for runs. Money is oil, not fuel. Itneeds to be distributed properly and less waste = more wins. Don't waste 10s of millions on the "best" bench. they play so little. Poor ROI. Depth should be at AAA where it is cheap and likely very similar in quality to a typical bench player in MLB. in fact, your prospects will likely bet better players on average, and the little ML experience seems to be a positive factor for them, too. Why pay 5-10M for a crap player to sit on the bench (or play 25% of the time in a platoon) that's only slightly better than a minimum salary from your mil? Especially since in any context you care they won't play much on a talented team capable of the WS. In seasons with extreme amount of injuries there's no escape from that no matter how you plant or what depth you have. "depth" wouldn't be your depth players if they were good enough to play everyday -- someone would have paid them to do so, otherwise, right? these are borderline trash players..don't believe they add much value compared to a very similar cheap similarly rated AAA player, because it isn't true. Certainly not worth millions of dolars more when you can spend that elsewhere with FAR greater ROI. Maximize 3-4 SP, 3-4 RP, 4-7bats - bigger markets can expand on the bats and weaker markets may not be able to afford even the lower values. Have good low cost options at AAA for an amount of injuries that don't 100% derail the season. If they don't currently have a ML contract, even better. the high end talent is worth the money and makes the biggest difference to your team's resulting record. Learn how many of those contracts you can afford at once and maximize that as often as you can while mixing in club-controlled contracts to exceed those limits in short-term contexts, but always have an exit strategy before you become finaicially handcuffed and your team absolutely sucks for 3-5 years due ot that lack of planning. Oh, common sense adjustments for LHP.RHP. But, usually the guys you pay the big bucks for don't shift too far. also, not that better teams are not average. so looking at the averages is notalways the best thing to compare. E.g. with rbi opportunities, exper more opprtunities to go deeper into lineup on a good team than you see with averages. if a team averages 5 times throught the lineup vs 4 that will make difference in the averages, i expect. But you want your RBI bats where they are most useful, nonetheless. anecdote --in a high power offesne, #5 seems to get more rbi opportunities than #3 despite fewer PA (what is it? 4-5% fewer PA per step in lineup? it is an effect to consider regardless of exact value), but could be wrong... . Last edited by NoOne; 07-25-2024 at 02:17 AM.

07-25-2024, 07:33 AM	#14
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	Years ago I read an article by Bill James on why not to put your best hitter (power+average) #3 and put them number #4. If you bat them #4 then their first AB will be with someone on base or they will be leading off the second inning. In both cases they will get better pitches to hit and be in a spot to cause more damage. If you bat them 3rd, about half the time their first AB will be with 2 outs and no one on base. In that case, the pitcher will be more selective in what he throws. He suggests putting an average hitter in the 3 spot. Google— Bill James, lineup construction. Good article at fangraphs. __________________ I am not responsible for anything I post!!! Use at your own risk! Last edited by Reed; 07-25-2024 at 07:39 AM.

07-18-2024, 03:45 AM	#1
kq76 Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 11,709	Q&A: How do you construct the optimal lineup? Q: How do you construct the optimal lineup? A: There are many theories on this. Traditionally you'd place your speediest hitter with some decent hitting ability first, a contact hitter 2nd, your best overall hitter third, your best power hitter fourth, and the rest by some general offensive metric. Some say they just order players by descending OBA. Some say it doesn't matter that much, that you might as well select the order at random. Some will even bat their best bat leadoff, even if it wastes their SLG, just to get them as many PAs as possible. The prevailing modern thought, however, probably goes something like the following: Think of your lineup spots in groups: 2 - 1 of your best hitters, but not necessarily with power 4 - 1 of your best hitters, and with power 1 - high OBA guy, but without power, preferably with speed 5 - 1 of your next best hitters, but without power 3 - 1 of your next best hitters, but with power 6 - 1 of your next best hitters, but preferably with speed 7 - next best hitter, preferably high BA / low K if you have a base-stealer ahead of them 8 - if DH, then next best hitter; if no DH, then pitcher 9 - if DH, then worst hitter, hopefully with some OBA; if no DH, then not pitcher (second leadoff hitter) So your 3 & 4 hitters are your power guys, but your 2 & 5 hitters are maybe better overall hitters than their groupmates. Prioritize OBA over speed for 1. Your speed guys are preferably not in front of power as that can be a waste, but in front of high BA / low K. Your worst hitter bats 9th, pitcher 8th if no DH. All this largely follows what The Book has to say (pg 132). When I say best hitter, you can take that to mean either GPA-wise (GPA=1.75xOBA+SLG), wOBA-wise, or whatever metric you prefer. Some other considerations: -Try to intersperse your lefties and switch-hitters among your righties so lefty relievers won't be as effective against you -If someone has otherwise favourable splits (e.g., a RHB with good splits vs a RHP), maybe move them up -If you have someone who hits into a lot of DPs, don't bat them 3rd, maybe bat them 1st -Someone who Ks a lot isn't necessarily a bad player, just don't have them behind a good base-stealer -Maybe re-think everything if your lineup isn't strong or doesn't fit the mold I'd also definitely recommend making use of the Custom Lineups pulldown to save lineups. For example, I'll save "vR" and "vL" lineups (based on opposing pitcher handedness), but then if a key player is injured I'll save further lineups like "vR w/o Player X". __________________ My OOTP Wishlist \| My FAQ List OOTP Wiki \| Your Recommended Team Nicknames, By City (A Crowdsourced Project) Last edited by kq76; 07-27-2024 at 04:26 AM. Reason: added "some other considerations" and added best leadoff

07-18-2024, 09:05 AM	#2
Dorfmann Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2016 Location: Baltimore, Maryland Posts: 137	Leadoff is my best OBP guy that doesn't also have good power. I don't necessarily care if he has a lot of speed. 2 and 3 are my best overall hitters 4-6, I want decent power 7-9 are my worst hitters, and I prefer 9 to have speed I also want to alternate LHB and RHB as best as possible.

07-18-2024, 09:16 AM	#4
Daniel_09 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2021 Location: Caracas Posts: 312	1 - hitter who doesn't strike out much and can catch bases on balls, high contact, high avoid K, high eye. 4- The player with the highest power but who is competent in all other attributes, high power, decent eye, decent contact. 2- The best player in terms of ratings. High contact, high avoid K, high Eye, High power, High gap power. 3 - second player with more power but who has better attributes than the 5th bat. high power, decent eye, decent contact. 5- third best player with more power but with lower ratings than the third bat. high power, decent eye, decent contact. 6 -8 the three remaining players with the best balance of ratings between contact, power, avoid k, eye. 9 - the player with the least contact and power of the entire lineup, I usually use this position for glove first, catcher, CF or SS players.

07-21-2024, 12:28 PM	#5
Guthrien Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 190	There are some decent statistical takes out there about your #9 NOT being your worst hitter, perhaps better than 6-8 depending on how your talent distribution is. It does seem to work better for me, but seem is all I can claim without measuring runs created after thousands of at bats. The science of sabermetric lineup construction is another fun theory to obsess over.

07-22-2024, 11:32 AM	#6
OutS\|der Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: In A Van Down By The River Posts: 2,680 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I try to follow convention but like to break it by putting my best overall hitter leadoff. Since batting first gets the most at bats I'll always put my best batter there

07-23-2024, 07:20 AM	#8
tts0 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 26	So, once I looked up how often a player hits in their exact lineup spot and it turns out that only #1, #2 and #3 do that most of the time. So these guys should be specialised - leadoff just get on base no matter what, hopefully with some good baserunning, #2 also on base guy but preferably via contact and #3 a guy who can drive those runs in. #4 is parcitulary tricky as they hit cleanup as often as leadoff, so this guy has to be the most versatile hitter or simply that OPS darling type. The rest of the lineup hit ether #1, #2, #3 most of the time so probably jack of all trades (and master of none) type of guys are preferable there with #5 hitter being some sort of protection for a #4, so the opposition doesnt IBB them al the time.

07-23-2024, 08:02 AM	#9
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,663 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	Step One of my answer is totally boring: I ask the computer manager. For Step Two I correct what I see as errors. This usually involves the computer manager having a base stealer in the lead off spot even if he has a below average OBP. I sometimes hit such a player ninth even though I don't use DH. Also the computer manager pushes some LHB way down in the order vs LH SP. I sometimes move them up a spot figuring it's likely at some poing there will be a RH RP in the game. __________________ . Pirates Play Moneyball 1951-2008 Ratings and League Totals Modifiers A new pre-calc file! (Applause!) Settings and Auto-calc Popular Opinions and Undisputable Facts

07-25-2024, 05:13 AM	#11
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,729	Give me 9 players, and I'll give you an order for them. Swap out someone from that list, and the order might completely change around. I don't really like putting rules like "don't hit a power guy leadoff", since depending on the lineup you're putting together, sometimes they fit like 90% of the rest of my rules and just make the whole lineup flow better. Is an Acuna leadoff HR partially wasted? Sure, in a sense. But if dropping him down in the lineup means you're hitting a low-OBP guy ahead of him, that doesn't really help you either. My personal rules: -Avoid as much as possible 3+ same handedness hitters in a row. Obviously not always possible (if you have 7 righties in against a tough lefty, basically just make sure the 2 lefties in the lineup aren't back to back). -Don't put good hitters too low. All the above posts from people are great strategy, but if it means your 3rd best hitter is in the 7 spot, then you're putting your lineup together wrong. This is sort of an extension of "put your best hitter #1". Sure, sometimes you drop them down a spot if that balances better, but if you have good hitters too low, find a new order. -After that, generally try to keep OBP higher, and slugging lower. A walk then a double is better than a double then a walk. -Try to avoid a speed guy in front of someone who is just empty power (ie. Dunn/Schwarber TTO guys). You don't get as much from stealing there. But again, if the OBP and other hitting values make it worth it, I'll violate this if needed. -If no DH, then I'd generally prefer my 8 hitter to be a power hitter. If there's no DH, then I I want the empty power bat to be hitting right before the "bad" hitters in my lineup, wherever that gap is. -After that, it depends on what sort of team I have. Is this an all-star level lineup, where Cal Raleigh is the worst hitter on the team? Or am I putting together the current Rockies lineup? If the lineup itself isn't as good, then I might occasionally violate some of the above to set up for some small ball type plays. If I'm fighting tooth and nail for every run, then trying to think about who has speed, who can bunt, can make some sense. -I do like hitting the pitcher 8th, generally speaking if my obvious #8 hitter is like a low slugging hitter. if they have some power, I'll keep them 8th. But it's such a pain to like have a guy on first, 2 out, your #8 hitter is up, and they walk or hit a weak single. Sure, you can start with your leadoff hitter next inning, but anytime I have 2 guys on base I want to have a chance to score them.

07-25-2024, 10:22 AM	#18
Larryk007 Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 438	Matt: Great response, but can OOTP take some of this thread and make a manager (AI) that has these types of preferred lineups? I just have never figured out why my "ask manager" for lineups is so unpredictable. What are the things we can do to have more predictable manager-AI lineups? Does manager type play into it, does manager strategy play into it? I thought originally that manager type, "traditional" would give me the OBP lead off and power in the 4 spot, and an unorthodox would give me random lineups.........knowing this would help select the manager AI.

07-26-2024, 09:29 PM	#19
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,268 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	i definitely want my best power guy with decent bat hitting 4th rather than 3rd. Not necesarily the best 'hitter' as far as BA. I don't value BA too highly but your best players in years that matter should hit above league BA. 30pts higher type difference can make me put someone with less power over someone with more and low BA. I don't know if "average" is the best way to describe what you shoudl put in the 3rd spot. They are still going to get more PA by a significant margen over say 6+. The number of rbi-opportunities for 3 and 5 average out in a similar way despite the #3 spot getting more PA over the season. When i have loaded teams that seems to play out too in the simulator. #3's extra PA make up for whatever the math is on the chance of 2 outs, nobody on in the first inning X% of the time... the effect is also not devestating it seems. Bill james isn't even a math major, is he? LOL. I like how his name helped push better metrics to be used, but WAR is trash and they way he tries to frame things seems poor. WAR is only useful when comparing really crappy players for a bench spot or a team like the A's or Marlins that refuse to spend money on players while the owner milks the national TV contract money and holds local taxpayers ransom with threats to move. Instead of being centered around replacement level, it'd be far more useful if it was centered around a typical WS-caliber team's talent. Who cares about mediocre years? Those are lost before they start. You don't want to maximize wins in those seasons, you want to maximize development and anthing else that feeds the bank for the future.