2023-2024 NBA Season Thread

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by thehef

Solid post.

I'm taking C's in 7. Mavs winning would not surprise me, though. I think a pretty good ranking of the top four players in the series is - in order - Luka, JT, JB, Kyrie. So that's pretty even. JT and JB are solid in the clutch (as they've proven in these playoffs) but Luka and Kyrie are clutch animals. Where the C's advantage lies is in the 2nd tier of players, as the next four - maybe arguably - are Celtics: Porzingis, D White, Jrue, and Horford. These four are not only better overall than the Mavs next four (Lively, PJ, Jones Jr, Gafford), but - specifically White & Holliday - are also proven clutch performers.

That said, I also go back to some very questionable crunch-time play by the Celtics during the regular season... Sure, they seemed to have worked that out during these playoffs. But as we know, those crunch-time wins came against significantly shorthanded teams (iow, teams that were largely without their own crunch-time players), so the Mavs may have a pretty significant clutch advantage...

At any rate, nobody is stopping Luka, but the C's more than any other team the Mavs have seen in these playoffs, are equipped to switch onto Luka when the Mavs will inevitably run screen after screen to force switches.

My recommendation would be for the C's to have D White stick to Kyrie like glue, and then - which will happen some of the time regardless due to screens & switches - give Luka a constant mix of Jrue, JT, and JB. Three different sized/skilled, elite-level defenders. And then on offense I would mercilessly prey on Kyrie, as he's not a particularly good defender, and both of Boston's guards - Holliday and White (plus Brown, when he swings to the backcourt) - have size/strength advantages.

Finally, my C's-in-7 prediction assumes that Porzingis a) won't need more than a game, if that, to recover his groove, and b) will remain healthy for the series. Should either of those not occur, then the C's can still win the series, but I'd see it more of tossup, perhaps even a slight Mavs advantage...

Dallas has played MUCH tougher teams than the Celtics have. I think the West is tougher, by a lot.

Frequently, in ALL sports, a player will outperform his reputation, and surprise a lot of people.

I don't know how good Luka Doncic is...but if he outperforms in THIS series, he's gonna get a ring.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Dallas has played MUCH tougher teams than the Celtics have.

True to a degree, but while Boston benefited by playing weaker teams (which is a benefit of gaining the #1 seed) that also were missing key players, Dallas had a bit of luck, too. 1) Had the Clippers' Kawai Leonard not missed games, Dallas may not have made it out of round one, 2) though the Thunder grabbed the 1 seed in the west, nobody really saw them as a title contender given their youth, and 3) the T-wolves also rely on a fair amount of youth (namely Edwards & KAT) plus a couple of vets - Gobert & Conley - who are getting (cementing?) a reputation as regular-season players. (Granted, though, that Boston had a run to the finals that is only rivaled by the '87 Lakers.)

Originally Posted by dsvitak

I think the West is tougher, by a lot.

No argument there. But I don't think this really speaks to this series. If placed in the West I doubt Boston would've placed anywhere other than #1, as they beat the West at basically the same clip that they beat the East. (Dallas, too, had similar conference splits.)

Originally Posted by dsvitak

I don't know how good Luka Doncic is...but if he outperforms in THIS series, he's gonna get a ring.

Probably true... unless someone like Tatum, Brown, or Porzingis also outperforms... There's also the angle that Doncic (or Kyrie) would need to outperform simply to stay competitive if the relative youth & inexperience of Dallas' 2nd-tier players shows vs Boston's already-superior 2nd-tier players...

Make no mistake, though: As a C's fan, I definitely fear Luka.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by thehef

True to a degree, but while Boston benefited by playing weaker teams (which is a benefit of gaining the #1 seed) that also were missing key players, Dallas had a bit of luck, too. 1) Had the Clippers' Kawai Leonard not missed games, Dallas may not have made it out of round one, 2) though the Thunder grabbed the 1 seed in the west, nobody really saw them as a title contender given their youth, and 3) the T-wolves also rely on a fair amount of youth (namely Edwards & KAT) plus a couple of vets - Gobert & Conley - who are getting (cementing?) a reputation as regular-season players. (Granted, though, that Boston had a run to the finals that is only rivaled by the '87 Lakers.)


No argument there. But I don't think this really speaks to this series. If placed in the West I doubt Boston would've placed anywhere other than #1, as they beat the West at basically the same clip that they beat the East. (Dallas, too, had similar conference splits.)


Probably true... unless someone like Tatum, Brown, or Porzingis also outperforms... There's also the angle that Doncic (or Kyrie) would need to outperform simply to stay competitive if the relative youth & inexperience of Dallas' 2nd-tier players shows vs Boston's already-superior 2nd-tier players...

Make no mistake, though: As a C's fan, I definitely fear Luka.

I don't have a dog in this hunt. My three favorite NBA players are the Joker, Luka, and Tatum. I am happy that either Luka or Tatum will get a ring. Kyrie. Nice to get him a ring.

BIG elephant in the room is the perceived disrespect showed to Kyrie by the Celtics. Not sure if this will impact Kyrie's play. I DO know to not piss off Luka. Have you HEARD some of the comments he made to the T-Wolves, and their fans? Savage...

[thehef]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

BIG elephant in the room is the perceived disrespect showed to Kyrie by the Celtics. Not sure if this will impact Kyrie's play.

Do you mean by Celtics' fans? I know for a fact that - despite a bit of friction caused by the stomping on the logo back a few years ago - the Celtics' core guys that played with him back in the day - mainly Tatum and Brown - still hold him in high regard.

That said, if you are insinuating that vociferous booing and some borderline disrespectful behavior by the C's fans might further motivate Kyrie to torch Boston, I would agree that it's a possibility and - as Kendrick Perkins warned Celtics fans today (or was it yesterday) - C's fans should tread lightly in this regard.

I'll say that for me, personally, for a while after he, first quit on, then ditched the C's I disliked him intensely. (I also dislike every time a small group of superstars - like Kyrie, Durant and Harden did - gang up to hold teams hostage in order to play together; and I find no small amount of joy when it backfires spectacularly in nearly every instance). However, despite it all, I cannot bring myself to intensely dislike Kyrie. I mean, I don't like the guy, but I don't really have a strong dislike for him either. I guess what it comes down to is that I didn't really like the idea of the C's acquiring him in the first place, and now that it's been a few years, I can appreciate the fact that he left and the team is better off for it. Water under the bridge, so to speak... That he has willingly taken a supporting (though still highly significant) role to Luka speaks volumes to his perhaps-a-bit late-blooming maturity.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Kyrie. Nice to get him a ring.

He has one already

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

He has one already

He's always been salty about Lebron getting all the credit for it. Which, to be fair, if he wins the chip this year, everyone will say it was Luka's as well. Irving's gonna have to be content to be one of the greatest if not the greatest 2nd options in the game...

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

He's always been salty about Lebron getting all the credit for it. Which, to be fair, if he wins the chip this year, everyone will say it was Luka's as well. Irving's gonna have to be content to be one of the greatest if not the greatest 2nd options in the game...

IMO, that is his own fault. All of those midseason sabbaticals don't lead to rings. He could have gone from Robin to Nightwing if he didn't treat the NBA like a part time endeavor.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

IMO, that is his own fault. All of those midseason sabbaticals don't lead to rings. He could have gone from Robin to Nightwing if he didn't treat the NBA like a part time endeavor.

I mean tbf he’d have been the second banana in Brooklyn too, and I do have to say that of all the ways to drive James Harden off the team, what he did (burn too much stinky incense in his adjoining locker) is one of the funniest ever…

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

He has one already

Yes. Yes he does. Another ring, and thanks for the correction.

Either way, Mavs come into the finals as the biggest underdog since ... ever, and you got TWO gritty, tough, clutch performers that each can take over a game, just like MJ in his prime.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

My three favorite NBA players are the Joker, Luka, and Tatum.

You probably picked the three most-complete players in the game. There are several other great NBAers, but none are as complete as these three, IMO.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Either way, Mavs come into the finals as the biggest underdog since ... ever, and you got TWO gritty, tough, clutch performers that each can take over a game, just like MJ in his prime.

From what I'm reading, the C's are definitely the favorites, but not overwhelmingly so, and I don't think too many people are counting the Mavs out, at all... I know I'm not...

The Heat were pretty significant underdogs in both of their recent appearances, as I recall. I mean, the bubble-year Heat were crippled going in and that only got worse once the series got underway. The Lakers weren't exactly a juggernaut (that whole postseason deserves an asterisk, if not stricken from the books, IMO...) but the Heat had no chance (that they managed to win 2 games is a testament to the illegitimacy of their opponent). Other significant underdogs:

07 Cavs
02 & 03 Nets
01 Sixers
99 Knicks
98 Sonics

Could probably throw in the 00 Pacers to make a five-year run of Eastern Conf weakness...

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by thehef

From what I'm reading, the C's are definitely the favorites, but not overwhelmingly so, and I don't think too many people are counting the Mavs out, at all... I know I'm not...

The Heat were pretty significant underdogs in both of their recent appearances, as I recall. I mean, the bubble-year Heat were crippled going in and that only got worse once the series got underway. The Lakers weren't exactly a juggernaut (that whole postseason deserves an asterisk, if not stricken from the books, IMO...) but the Heat had no chance (that they managed to win 2 games is a testament to the illegitimacy of their opponent). Other significant underdogs:

07 Cavs
02 & 03 Nets
01 Sixers
99 Knicks
98 Sonics

Could probably throw in the 00 Pacers to make a five-year run of Eastern Conf weakness...

ESPN is saying the money is on the Celtics, overwhelmingly making Dallas the biggest underdogs in finals history. This will be fun! Dallas plays well on the road. *cough*T-Wolves*cough*

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by thehef

You probably picked the three most-complete players in the game. There are several other great NBAers, but none are as complete as these three, IMO.

I watched a LOT of bball this year..more than any year I can remember.

SGA, Antman, Towns, and a couple of others impressed me. I like Ja's game, too, when he isn't doing his Ron Artest impersonation.

How Gobert could get DPOY baffles me, and it baffles me even more how he could be given the assignment to guard Luka. Luka KILLED him.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

How Gobert could get DPOY baffles me, and it baffles me even more how he could be given the assignment to guard Luka. Luka KILLED him.

Isn't Gobert pretty much the post-child for regular-season excellence? I don't mean that he is all that less of a player in the postseason. It's more that over the long haul of a regular season, when games are part of the humdrum grind, and players & coaching staffs aren't as laser-focused, his rim protection makes a difference. But in a playoff series, that he is close to a non-factor on offense and a defensive liability if you can get him out of the paint, well those things are very exploitable...

I agree that having Gobert guard Luka - that was just on that one play and perhaps other switches; he wasn't ever assigned to guard Luka, was he? - was absurd. In that situation - game on the line - the obvious defensive strategy to me is to either guard Luka with your best overall defender, or, if the Mavs screen/switch, you double-team him with anyone except Kyrie's primary defender... I'd have to watch the play again to see how it developed to be sure, but that seems like some serious bonehead execution on someone's part...

On a related subject that's a bit dated now, Draymond proved himself to be the complete clown that he is by criticizing Gobert for not guarding Jokic in the Denver/Minnesota series. As we know, Gobert is an interior defensive player, and Joker is an everywhere-on-the-court offensive player. The Nuggets would've liked nothing more than to see Rudy far away from the basket trying to guard Jokic. Having the more stretch-4/5 like KAT guarding Joker and putting Rudy on the less-offensive & less-wing-playing A Gordon was the smart & obvious defensive strategy.

Draymond then followed that up a week or so later by posting a still-shot of Luka about to beat Rudy for the game-winner, that just happened to catch Rudy's teammate, Jaden McDaniels, in the background with what appeared to be a smirk. Draymond's suggestion was that McD's expression - rather than fluke in a picture that merely captured a moment in time - was actually McD smiling at the possibility that his teammate Gobert was about to become toast on a game-winning shot. I mean, really? McDaniel - while carrying out his own defensive assignment on the most important play of the game - is going to smile at the notion of Gobert getting beat on a play that will put his team in a 2-0 hole?

I suppose if Draymond were just having fun and joking about it, that would be one thing. But given Draymond's open dislike of Gobert, the tweet either reflected Draymond's pettiness, or his stupidity. Maybe both. Given that he's doing car commercials now and appeared a few times this season TNT's basketball shows, he seems to be trying to raise the potential on his after-career prospects. If true, you'd think he'd be smarter. You know, maybe say more intelligent things about the game of basketball. Or maybe he's just not capable of being smarter. Or he's angling for one of those knucklehead, bomb-throwing spots on those yelling-match sports talk shows...

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by thehef

Isn't Gobert pretty much the post-child for regular-season excellence? I don't mean that he is all that less of a player in the postseason. It's more that over the long haul of a regular season, when games are part of the humdrum grind, and players & coaching staffs aren't as laser-focused, his rim protection makes a difference. But in a playoff series, that he is close to a non-factor on offense and a defensive liability if you can get him out of the paint, well those things are very exploitable...

I agree that having Gobert guard Luka - that was just on that one play and perhaps other switches; he wasn't ever assigned to guard Luka, was he? - was absurd. In that situation - game on the line - the obvious defensive strategy to me is to either guard Luka with your best overall defender, or, if the Mavs screen/switch, you double-team him with anyone except Kyrie's primary defender... I'd have to watch the play again to see how it developed to be sure, but that seems like some serious bonehead execution on someone's part...

On a related subject that's a bit dated now, Draymond proved himself to be the complete clown that he is by criticizing Gobert for not guarding Jokic in the Denver/Minnesota series. As we know, Gobert is an interior defensive player, and Joker is an everywhere-on-the-court offensive player. The Nuggets would've liked nothing more than to see Rudy far away from the basket trying to guard Jokic. Having the more stretch-4/5 like KAT guarding Joker and putting Rudy on the less-offensive & less-wing-playing A Gordon was the smart & obvious defensive strategy.

Draymond then followed that up a week or so later by posting a still-shot of Luka about to beat Rudy for the game-winner, that just happened to catch Rudy's teammate, Jaden McDaniels, in the background with what appeared to be a smirk. Draymond's suggestion was that McD's expression - rather than fluke in a picture that merely captured a moment in time - was actually McD smiling at the possibility that his teammate Gobert was about to become toast on a game-winning shot. I mean, really? McDaniel - while carrying out his own defensive assignment on the most important play of the game - is going to smile at the notion of Gobert getting beat on a play that will put his team in a 2-0 hole?

I suppose if Draymond were just having fun and joking about it, that would be one thing. But given Draymond's open dislike of Gobert, the tweet either reflected Draymond's pettiness, or his stupidity. Maybe both. Given that he's doing car commercials now and appeared a few times this season TNT's basketball shows, he seems to be trying to raise the potential on his after-career prospects. If true, you'd think he'd be smarter. You know, maybe say more intelligent things about the game of basketball. Or maybe he's just not capable of being smarter. Or he's angling for one of those knucklehead, bomb-throwing spots on those yelling-match sports talk shows...

I agree with everything you said. I watch the knucklehead, bomb-throwing spots daily. Pat McAfee is a clown, SAS is a clown. ONLY NBA Tonight can I get my BB fix without wanting to throw my remote at the TV. Bonus...we get to hear all about those big ol' San Antonion women, too!

[Cobra Mgr]

Lakers looking to hire Dan Hurley

[thehef]

Below is my Who Has The Edge breakdown & prediction for the finals. I'm under no illusions that anyone actually cares, but I thought I'd post this somewhere

STARTERS*
PG: Luka vs Jrue: Solid Edge to Mavs. Jrue is an elite defender and a good offensive player. Doncic is a top-three (2? 1?) NBAer.

SG: White vs Kyrie: Even. White is an elite defender, does all of the intangibles, and hits big shots. Kyrie is an elite scorer & big shot-maker, decent playmaker, but is a bit of a liability on defense.

SF: JB vs D Jones Jr: Big Edge to Celtics. Jones is a nice complimentary player but Brown is top-level on both O & D.

PF: Tatum vs Washington Jr: Huge Edge to Celtics. Washington is another nice Mav's role player, but JT does everything well and is top-five in the A.

C: KP vs Gafford: Big Edge to Celtics. Like the Mavs' other frontcourt starters, Gafford is a nice role player. Porzingis is a force on offense and a decent defender & rim protector. What might make this edge closer is that KP will be returning from a long layoff & might not play big or effective minutes in the first game or two.

*Matchups are going to be all over the place in this series, and neither team has one guy you'd clearly call the PG and another guy that is clearly the SG, but I thought the above comparison-pairings made the most sense.

BENCH
Big: Horford vs Lively: Even. Horford has the experience and his a steadying presence. Lively has all that youthful exuberance.

Wing: Hauser vs J Green/Hardy: Slight edge to C's. Hauser's in a slump but could come off the bench and drain 3 or 4 threes at any time. Not much is expected from Green or Hardy but they are solid in their limited roles.

Ball: Pritchard vs Exum: Small edget to C's. PP can hit open shots and push the pace. Exum doesn't do much in his limited minutes, but isn't really needed with Doncic or Kyrie always on the floor to handle the ball.

Rest of Bench: Slight edge to C's, as Kornet, Tillman and Brisset have shown flashes when needed, whereas the Mavs haven't had a significant contribution in the playoffs from any other bench players (except for Kleber in one game).

COACHING
Mazzula vs Kidd: Slight edge to Mavs. I don't think there's much here for an edge, but Kidd has been to the finals as a player a few times (and won it once), whereas Joe M has only been there as an assistant coach. Neither one has a ton of head-coaching experience (though Kidd's is a bit longer). Both seem to have become better coaches with experience.

INTANGIBLES
No edge. C's have homecourt advantage. The Mavs have been challenged by better teams on their way to the finals...

PREDICTION
Celtics in 7. On paper, it should be C's in 5. But the Celtics have a habit of letting down at times. They did that in games two vs both the Heat and Cavs. They did it more than once against an inferior Pacers team but were able to pull those games out in the clutch. They won't have much room for that against the Mavs, who are firing on all cylinders and clearly peaking at the right time. It'll likely be 2-2 after four games, and home court probably won't mean much in this series...

[Cobra Mgr]

Dan Hurley turns down LA.

[monkeyman576]

Hurley turning down the Lakers just shows how much better NCAA programs treat coaches than NBA teams.

[Cobra Mgr]

I think it shows Hurley is happy where he is. All this talk over the weekend about what this says college or pro was a bunch of malarkey drummed up by a bored sports media.