Pitch velocity

[KingCrimson]

Is it normal for a starter approaching age 30 to have his velocity drop? It seems like it happens too often to my guys. I understand it happens in real life, but 29,30 seems a little early. 33,34,35, I would understand. This is my first year playing so I'm just wondering if this has always been the case in OOTP.

[md40022]

That's definitely a case by case thing, but speaking in general 29 or 30 would be a little young for that.

There's a ton of variables for that in real life, obviously. Developing new pitches, role having changed, injury, heck even changing team as environment can even factor in to that (especially w/ breaking pitches).... But just speaking in general terms of a guy starting to get a little old and past his prime and velo is starting to decline, 29/30 is definitely younger than normal in that regard.

[Pelican]

My experience is anecdotal only. Others may have tested this, in terms of what effect the drop in velocity has on overall effectiveness. I would be curious how the new mix of pitcher ratings would behave, if just velocity were reduced.

In my experience, this does start to happen around age 30. Certainly not to every SP or RP. And it can be accompanied by an increase in Movement or Control, which quite likely may compensate for the loss in velocity. We might call this the Jamie Moyer Effect.

Also, pitch velocity in scouting reports can be a product of the scout's observations (presumably with a radar gun) and reliability. A scout with low accuracy may actually be getting pitch velocity wrong - or maybe he saw the pitcher on an off day.

How do you play OOTP? I am learning there is a whole universe of different dynamics with fictional (AI created) players, that may or may not correspond to the historical seasons I typically play. I would not know what to expect with generated players as they age.

And, what you are seeing could be a direct result of the settings you are using. If you are playing historical with annual recalc, the game may well be reflecting the drop-off in velocity that real players experienced, in that point of their career.

If you play, as I do, with annual reclac off, development with high TCR, you would expect results to diverge from IRL stats and performance. Guys might age faster, or age slower, randomly.

One way to influence pitcher drop-off in performance would be to adjust the "Aging" factor for pitchers from the default 1.00 to something less, say experiment with .95 or even .75, and see if SP maintain velocity (and other ability) longer. I should note that I advance these factors to 1.15 for pitchers and hitters, so that my sample would age (and thus lose velocity) more quickly - at a younger age. Of course, I also use 1.15 for development, so that younger players develop somewhat more quickly. It's a trade-off I like; but you can do the opposite, to keep guys around longer.

[KingCrimson]

Originally Posted by Pelican

My experience is anecdotal only. Others may have tested this, in terms of what effect the drop in velocity has on overall effectiveness. I would be curious how the new mix of pitcher ratings would behave, if just velocity were reduced.

In my experience, this does start to happen around age 30. Certainly not to every SP or RP. And it can be accompanied by an increase in Movement or Control, which quite likely may compensate for the loss in velocity. We might call this the Jamie Moyer Effect.

Also, pitch velocity in scouting reports can be a product of the scout's observations (presumably with a radar gun) and reliability. A scout with low accuracy may actually be getting pitch velocity wrong - or maybe he saw the pitcher on an off day.

How do you play OOTP? I am learning there is a whole universe of different dynamics with fictional (AI created) players, that may or may not correspond to the historical seasons I typically play. I would not know what to expect with generated players as they age.

And, what you are seeing could be a direct result of the settings you are using. If you are playing historical with annual recalc, the game may well be reflecting the drop-off in velocity that real players experienced, in that point of their career.

If you play, as I do, with annual reclac off, development with high TCR, you would expect results to diverge from IRL stats and performance. Guys might age faster, or age slower, randomly.

One way to influence pitcher drop-off in performance would be to adjust the "Aging" factor for pitchers from the default 1.00 to something less, say experiment with .95 or even .75, and see if SP maintain velocity (and other ability) longer. I should note that I advance these factors to 1.15 for pitchers and hitters, so that my sample would age (and thus lose velocity) more quickly - at a younger age. Of course, I also use 1.15 for development, so that younger players develop somewhat more quickly. It's a trade-off I like; but you can do the opposite, to keep guys around longer.

I'm just playing your standard present day save. I haven't gotten into adjusting any advanced settings either. I could try messing with the aging setting, I suppose.

[snepp]

Some food for thought.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-...-introduction/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-...and-relievers/

[tonnage]

Is there anything that Fangraphs doesn't have... what an amazing site!

[md40022]

Originally Posted by snepp

Some food for thought.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-...-introduction/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-...and-relievers/

Aaaaaand I stand corrected.

[DrPhilipino]

I made a thread regarding this a week or so ago; there is definitely something buggy about velo decline.. I can understand pitchers losing a tick or two as they approach 30, especially if they have tons of mileage on their arm, but I have guys dropping 10+mph within a couple year span. There's lots of pitchers in my league that end up at 85-87mph which seems to be the minimum velocity for pitchers in the game

[KingCrimson]

Originally Posted by DrPhilipino

I made a thread regarding this a week or so ago; there is definitely something buggy about velo decline.. I can understand pitchers losing a tick or two as they approach 30, especially if they have tons of mileage on their arm, but I have guys dropping 10+mph within a couple year span. There's lots of pitchers in my league that end up at 85-87mph which seems to be the minimum velocity for pitchers in the game

In my current sim, Dylan Cease lost about 6mph by his age 30 season. Seems a bit drastic.

[Pdubya64]

All I would say is that for us OOTP players, time is usually compressed greatly unless you play every AB through.
So, it seems like it is happening much too fast, but when you are simulating a season so rapidly my personal belief is that it throws your sense of time-correctness off- a lot. Just my take.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by KingCrimson

In my current sim, Dylan Cease lost about 6mph by his age 30 season. Seems a bit drastic.

You’ll likely see larger than normal drops for some players. That’s due to random change. It would be an issue if like every player dropped that much velo in a few short years but individuals? Unfortunately as a Mariners fan who watched King Felix lose about 10 miles off his fastball from 28 to 31, all I can say is, it happens.