The 2023 NFL Season Thread

[monkeyman576]

I'm giving myself $1000 fake dollars to see what I end up with at the end of the season.

Week 1 vs. the spread picks
Detroit @ Kansas City(-6.5) (KC $20) - Tempted to pick DET here, but I'm not gonna bet against the defending champs
and the best offense in the league.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-3.5) (CAR $5) - This could be a close, low scoring game.

Cincinnati(-2.5) @ Cleveland (CIN $10) Another close one, both these teams could be near the top of the division.
I'll go with the team that made the super bowl recently.

Jacksonville(-5.0) @ Indianapolis (JAX $50) - Trevor Lawrence is the big new thing. It will be interesting to see
if the Jaguars can do better than last year.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-6.0) (MIN $25) - Tampa Bay should struggle without Brady and might even contend for the #1
pick overall.

Tennessee@ New Orleans(-3.0) (TEN $10) - Derrick Henry should give the Titans a chance at a road upset.

San Francisco (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh(SF $20) - The 49ers have been the model of consistancy recently.

Arizona @ Washington (-7.0) (ARI $10) - Arizona is bad but I don't think they are that bad. Washington has not shown
they are legitimate yet.

Houston @ Baltimore (-10.0) (BAL $75) - Jackson has something to prove after his big new shiny contract.

Green Bay @ Chicago(-1.0) (GB $10) - I agree with Vegas this could be close but I think the Packers have more to prove
minus Aaron Rodgers.

Philadelphia(-3.5) @ New England (PHI $20) - I could see the Patriots getting close enough to beat the spread,
but I'll give the Eagles the edge after making the super bowl.

Miami @ LA Chargers(-3.0) (MIA $10) - I think this will be close as well, and Tua will pull out a late game winning drive.

LA Rams @ Seattle(-5.0) (SEA $50) - Hard to bet against the Hawks at home, especially agaisnt a struggling Rams team.

Dallas(-2.5) @ NY Giants (DAL $20) - Dallas knows they need to play better to be considered super bowl calibur.

Buffalo(-1.0) @ NY Jets (BUF $100) - This looks like the steal of the week. Aaron Rodgers is good but Buffalo wants
to actually make it to the super bowl this year.

Total Bet Week 1: $435

[Ragnar]

I do this sort of thing too. I make bets, but I don't actually bet. I want to see how well I do.

Back in the late 80s, early 90s, I did very well. So well that I made more than my good paying job. I retired when I moved out of my house and actually had bills to pay. But in recent years, I've never recorded a positive. Some years being down several thousand dollars. I won't be coming out of retirement anytime soon.

[Syd Thrift]

I'm not a gambling person. IIRC Thursday night games are notoriously bad for underdogs, even/especially the first week. I guess we'll see but there's a reason why I chose Detroit for the loser's league.

[monkeyman576]

I could see Detroit beating the spread but I don't think it's likely. Mahomes is just too good.

[Cobra Mgr]

Legalized gambling has made me more wary of the integrity of the results. I would never be rich enough to risk a buck on the honest effort of pro players.

[monkeyman576]

I'm not risking a buck, thank gooddness.

[Amazin69]

I haven't bet legit funds in this century (I went bust in 1990, then did a few tokens on trips to LV in the 1990s), but let's dust off the old brain here.

I'll try to keep to Larry Merchant's rules (from his 1972 book, The National Football Lottery)

• Don't bet every game. Stick to things you feel certain about.

• Don't bet a game just because it's on TV.

• Don't bet a wild spread of amounts. If your $100 bet goes down, you need 11 $10 bets to get your money back. (Don't forget the 11-10 vigorish.) If the $10 bets were so certain, you'd be betting more. All you're doing is throwing away random $11 losses. That's money, too. (Okay, fake money, whatever.)

• Don't give more than 7 points. What's the point of being a brilliant handicapper if you end up beaten by a backdoor cover?

• Don't bet an underdog unless you think it can win. Do you really want your bet coming down to "hope the better team takes it easy"?

• If you're doing well, step up your bets a bit, but don't go crazy. Don't throw away all your good work at once.

• If you're in a hole, don't try and win it all back at once. That's a recipe for getting buried.

• Don't bet the rent money. What are you, stupid?

(Also, stay away from parlays, but I don't think we're doing them here.)

Okay, let's make some bets!

Green Bay (+1) at Chicago. Packers have something to prove. Can't imagine they can't beat the Bears just because Rodgers is gone. $75

Philadelphia (-3.5) at New England. Have to think the linemakers/public are still giving NE points just for Belichick. I think that skews things. As with the first game, you have a better team with something to prove. Have to like that. $75

Dallas (-2.5) at NY Giants. Giants looked like hot garbage against the Jets. Yes, it was an exhibition and Jones didn't play, but those teams play that one for real and the Giants looked really bad. Also, they had a lot of injuries coming in and racked up more. Dallas is also notably better, and has something to prove. $50

So, let's see if I have anything resembling a clue.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

• Don't bet an underdog unless you think it can win. Do you really want your bet coming down to "hope the better team takes it easy"?

• If you're doing well, step up your bets a bit, but don't go crazy. Don't throw away all your good work at once.

I can't stress how important these two are. Many of the others are obvious, but these two are where people make mistakes.

Parlays can be tempting due to the payout. Just don't do it. The only Parlay I ever bet was my final bet before retirement, and I expected to lose. I was more worried about winning than losing, because it might make it harder for me to retire. Raiders +1 and Eagles -6. I bet 80 times ($400). I won. Payout $1120. That was sometime in the mid 90s. I haven't placed another bet with a book of any kind since. I do make small bets with friends. Anywhere between 5-10 bucks. How else can you watch some of these games?

[Déjà Bru]

The Plight of the N.F.L. Running Back

A combination of factors has devalued one of the marquee positions in all of American sports.

N.F.L. running backs, once the face of many teams, have fallen so far in relative value over the last few decades that it has amounted to a public demotion. They have seen their contributions derided by data analysts, and their pay slip in relation even to unglamorous offensive linemen.

In 1997, Barry Sanders of the Detroit Lions was the second-highest-paid player in the league — a time when running back was still one of the marquee positions in all of American sports. Today, not a single one is ranked in the top 100.

The gist seems to be this: "Running backs, who tend to reach their career peak at a younger age than other players, spend their prime years locked into a rookie contract and are often seen by teams as declining in value by the time they can sign a new deal."




Gift article; available 30 days; does not count toward your allotment of free articles.

[Cobra Mgr]

What you're going to get is players @ the youth level refusing to play RB. Like 7 footers in basketball refusing to play the pivot or be called a center now.

[pilight]

Preseason Super Bowl pick

Bills over Cowboys

[monkeyman576]

The last thing we need is another bills/cowboys super bowl. Seahawks over Chiefs.

[Cobra Mgr]

Interesting study about jersey numbers.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

The last thing we need is another bills/cowboys super bowl. Seahawks over Chiefs.

It's been 30 years, I think we'll be ok.

[Amazin69]

Okay, never mind that I picked against them in the Pick-a-Loser game. After all these tongue baths the pregame show is giving Dan Campbell, I'll be rooting against the Lions on principle until at least Halloween.

The guy went 9-8. Respectable for how awful the team tends to be, yes, but hold off on the goddang statue, please.

(He's still under .500, overall.)

[Amazin69]

TWO plays into the season before the refs blow a call. 2nd & 3, Goff tries a bootleg right, sees nobody but Karlaftis coming at him and throws the ball at his feet.

Inside the tackle box + under pressure + no receiver in area + ball doesn't get back to the line of scrimmage is still Intentional Grounding, right? Not for the Blind Zebras working this game, it isn't.

[Cobra Mgr]

My predictions for the year

Phil   13-4          Buf   13-4
Dal    11-6          Mia   10-7
NYG    10-7          NYJ    9-8
Wash    8-9          NE     4-13

GB     11-6          Pitt  12-5
DET    10-7          Balt  12-5
Chi     8-9          Cin   12-5
Minn    6-11         Clev   9-8 

NO      8-9          Jx    10-7
Car     6-11         Ten   10-7
Atl     6-11         Ind    6-11
TB      3-14         Hou    4-13

SF     14-3          KC    14-3
Sea     7-10         Den    9-8
LA      3-14         LAC    6-11
Ariz    2-15         LV     5-12

WC

Dal over NO        Cincy over Jax
NYG over GB        Balt over Pitt
Phil over Det      Buff over Mia

Div Rd

SF over NYG        KC over Balt
Phil over Dal      Cincy over Buff

Conf Fin

Phil over SF       Cincy over KC

SB

Phil over Cincy

So if you bet opposite this, you ought to make a killing in Vegas.

[Amazin69]

What sort of dumb**** goes for it on 4th and 25 when they don't need to?

Punt. Defense. Drive for FG to win game. Moron.

(Also it would help if KaDaverous Toney knew how to catch a ball. Or if Sneed and Reid knew how to tackle. That was notably pathetic. I'll forgive one whiff, but it was multiples for all of them.)

[Amazin69]

[double-post, deleted]

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

What sort of dumb**** goes for it on 4th and 25 when they don't need to?

Punt. Defense. Drive for FG to win game. Moron.

(Also it would help if KaDaverous Toney knew how to catch a ball. Or if Sneed and Reid knew how to tackle. That was notably pathetic. I'll forgive one whiff, but it was multiples for all of them.)

I was trying to figure out what I was missing when Andy Reid was going to go for it on 4th-and-20, with all three timeouts plus the two-minute warning, merely a 1-point deficit, and field position all pointing towards punt... I then thought for sure when the 5-yard penalty was tacked on to make it 4th-and-25, he'd reconsider and punt... I just have no idea what was going thru the brain of one of the best coaches in the game...

It's not like the Lions were carving up the Chiefs defense. Detroit's offense only scored 14 points... I just don't get it.

That said, it's a great win for the Lions. They are an easy team to like... their coach, QB, lots of nice youngin's... and a fan base that deserves something to get excited about...

As for the Chiefs, it didn't help that they were shorthanded, but they basically gave this game away.