Perfect Team Live Spreadsheet, Tips, and Player Recommendations

[Houston_Trashtros]

Link to spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
(Please make a copy if you plan to edit it, NOT request edit access. Also, note that projections and values are subject to change and may be out of date. Make sure your guys aren't injured!)

Post for 6/5 Live Update is here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...3&postcount=14

Introduction

Perfect Team Live is a new mode for Perfect Team that is based on real player performance rather than in game simulations. It gives Live cards another much needed niche, and also allows players to earn additional perfect points while playing fantasy baseball in a low stakes yet unique and competitive setting.

Incidentally, I love fantasy baseball and making spreadsheets as well as OOTP, so I thought I'd share some tips, findings, and recommendations based on my observations per the current rules. Also included is a spreadsheet using Derek Carty's The BAT system's RoS projections. I hope this proves to be both informative and fun to look at.

Roster Construction

To keep the whales on a leash and promote roster diversity, there is a limit to the number of Gold or higher cards you can roster each day. Currently, you can only have 2 perfects, 3 diamonds, and 4 golds per day, with lower rarities being allowed as substitutes for higher rarities. (ie you can run 9 Golds in a given day if you pass on diamonds and perfects.)

With 11 batters and 4 pitchers, to at least need 6 silver and lower players on a given day. So what positions should you go cheap on? Positions with the smallest opportunity cost. The one that sticks out to me the most is the Reliever spot. With saves providing a whopping 30 PPs (perfect points) per, you really just need guys that will pick up volume rather than be super dominant. Sure, that 99 Clase is cool, but Romano and Jansen will get the job done at silver.

Profitability

Even the highest projected players are only going to net you a few thousand PPs over the course of the season. So, unless you're aiming for the leaderboards, you're going to get the best profitability with cheap silvers and/or cards you already have from live missions.

Lineups

Since lineups "lock" generally before any lineups will be announced, you should generally part-time players, even if they're pretty solid on per-game basis. Top players will generally play nearly every day, but occasionally you'll get burned by late scratches and injuries. Platoon players can be alright if they project well but note that they'll be liable to be pinch hit for when relievers enter the game.

DFS Strategies
Since the leaderboards are focused on weekly and monthly output, I currently do not recommend using DFS strategies like stacking players from the same team and running low% owned players. Focus on having the highest possible median point projections for your team on each given day if you're aiming for the top.

Matchups

Due to lineup and starting pitcher matchups frequently changing, there is a bit of an edge to be had by accounting for matchups daily, which is most easily done by checking projections. This is not really worthwhile for value players, who should mostly focus on rostering active players (usually just SPs.)

Position Recommendations

Based on my spreadsheet, which you can view at the top of this post. (Please make a copy if you plan to edit it, NOT request edit access.) Players are listed with their last ten price and a brief explanation.

Glossary:
Top Play: Best projected player(s) in a position by a wide margin.
Elite Play: Best projected player(s) in a position, but not by a lot.
Silver/Gold/Diamond: Best projected player at a given rarity.
Profitability: The player projected to earn the most PPs over the course of the season, minus their current L10 price.

The Best of the Best:

Fernando Tatis RF (7k), Ronald Acuna Jr. RF (22k), Mike Trout (25k) CF, Shohei Ohtani DH (25.5k)

If you can swing the prices, these guys are the top fantasy producers in baseball and figure to be staples for managers that own them. They're worth using perfect and utility slots to make work.

Catcher:

Will Smith (top play, 4.5k), (Salvador Perez (Silver/profitability, 111)

Really you can't go wrong with any of the diamond catchers not listed, especially Sean Murphy, and Melendez should get plenty of action as well at the silver tier. Wilson Contreras is a good option at the Gold tier. Lots of catchers split time, so be wary of good hitting part time catchers like Raleigh.

First Base

Vladamir Guerrero Jr. (4.8k), Paul Goldschmidt (6.7k) (elite plays)
Rowdy Tellez (124)(profitability)

There is a pretty wide gap between diamond and lower players at this position, so this is a great position to use your diamond slot for. Olson and Alonso look to be very productive as well, though Freddie Freeman is not generally worth the perfect slot and extra cost. Rowdy should perform as well as most golds and is nearly free, so he's great for farming PPs though otherwise I'd pass on him.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies (848) (top AND silver play), Marcus Semien (top play)
Nico Hoerner (133) (profitability)

Ozzie Albies figures to be a chalky play, since he's really cheap both in rarity and price and projects really well for the 2B slot. Semien projects slightly higher if you can spare the diamond, and Hoerner's tiny price makes him solid for farming until Albies' price drops. I don't really like the other options here, unless you find a juicy matchup or want to add to a team stack.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (4309), Bobby Witt (1235) (top plays)
Javier Baez (33) (profitability)

Bobby Witt seems like the obvious play here, since he's way cheaper than Trea Turner and projects almost as well. Lindor, Bichette, and Adames seem viable as well. Javier Baez is a big step down from the top options, but his bottom of the barrel price and every day player status makes him great for PP farming. Avoid Correa since he's way to expensive for what he offers.

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (4177), Rafael Devers (4350) (elite plays)
Max Muncy (1533) (silver)
Ke'Bryan Hayes (profitability)

Lots of solid diamonds here you can't go wrong with, with Chapman, Riley, and Machado all looking super viable behind Ramirez and Devers. Max Muncy looks to be a great option if you need an extra silver hitter, but his currently high price currently makes Ke'Bryan Hayes the preferred option for farming PPs. Avoid Arenado.

Left Field
Juan Soto (4953) (top play)
Kyle Schwarber (1069) (silver)
Christian Yelich (118)(profitability)

Juan Soto is a huge step over the other options, even if Schwarber, Arozrena, and Reynolds are all solid in their own right. This would be a one man show if it weren't for Schwarber's current status as a silver player, where he provides immense value relative to rarity. Schwarber's currently bloated L10 price makes Yelich the preferred option for PP farming.

Center Field
Mike Trout (25230) (top play)
Julio Rodriguez (5910) (diamond)
Adolis Garcia (116) (silver/profitability)

Mike Trout is a top producer so it makes sense he would be the top CF as well. If you can't make the price work, Julio Rodriguez and Adolis Garcia are solid options in their respective tiers, with Adolis doubling as excellent for profitability.

Right Field

Fernando Tatis Jr. (7009), Ronald Acuna Jr. (22156) (top plays)
Anthony Santander (profitability)

This is another position where I really don't reccomend going cheap, because Tatis and Acuna project so much higher than everyone else. Play one or both unless you have a matchup you want elsewhere. Anthony Santander is there for farming and budget considerations, but he's a good deal worse than both.

DH-only

Shohei Ohtani (25659) (elite play)

Shohei is the only player that really interests me in this tier, since he's a top performer and well worth the DH/utility spot. The two-way status will also play better here than in perfect team itself. Yordan Alvarez is an interesting play as well, but he's liable to get surprise rest days due to his frail build, which is pretty annoying for a diamond.

Flex candidates:

Top 11 batters via perfect point production:

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.
2. Ronald Acuna Jr.
3. Mike Trout
4. Shohei Ohtani
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
6. Paul Goldschmidt
7. Kyle Tucker
8. Jose Ramirez
9. Juan Soto
10. Matt Olson
11. Rafael Devers

Just play the top projected players you can afford rarity/PP wise.

Relievers:

Camil Doval (1074), Ryan Helsley (1444) (elite plays)
Jordan Romano (1327), Kenley Jansen (889) (silver)

Kyle Finnegan (30), Scott Barlow (29) (profitability)

Emmanuel Clase is the top reliever, but there's no reason to use the diamond slot here since Helsley and especially Doval are just as good at gold. Romano and Jansen are excellent closer alternatives that don't even cost a gold slot. Kyle Finnegan isn't that far behind and costs a mere 30 PP, making him a great value. Ditto for Scott Barlow.

(Closers will often take days off if they pitch on consecutive days. If you're playing for the leaderboards, Closer Monkey is a great resource to check.)

Starters:

Diamond: Cole, Alcanatra, Strider, Burnes, Scherzer
Gold: Glasnow (upon return), Bieber, McClanahan, Castillo, Javier, Wheeler
Silver: Framber, Snell, Darvish, Manoah, Musgrove
Bronze: Morton, Pablo Lopez, Bassit, Luis Garcia, Greene (profitability)

Too many starters to list and they obviously vary a lot day by day. Just play the best ones you can afford PP and rarity wise. I don't think the perfects are necessary at all to be competitive, although you'll miss a few great (easy) matchups here and there. There are lots of good options at every rarity, although Framber is the top silver by a solid margin and Glasnow figures to be the top gold upon his return.

EDIT: I forgot to account for the 10+ K bonus, which gives a pretty substantial boost for starters with high strikeout rates. For instance, Strider's porjected K count of 8.67 tomorrow translates to about a 35% hit rate for the bonus. That's an expected value boost of 17.5 points! Gonna try to update this post to reflect this further, but this represents a huge boost to guys like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Spencer Strider. You should absolutely spend rarity and PPs to try and chase this bonus if you can.

Sample Profitability/Budget Focused Team for beginners (for current prices)

C: Salvador Perez (net +1557 PPs)
1B: Rowdy Tellez (+1667 PPs)
2B: Nico Hoerner (+1399 PPs)
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes (+1453 PPs)
SS: Javier Baez (+1662 PPs)
LF: Christian Yelich (+1673 PPs)
CF: Adolis Garcia (+1818 PPs)
RF: Anthony Santander (+1865 PPs)
DH: C.J. Cron (+1702 PPs)
Utility 1: Wil Myers (+1677 PPs)
Utility 2: Joey Gallo (+1605 PPs)
Relief 1: Kyle Finnegan (+1306 PPs)
Relief 2: Scott Barlow (+1251 PPs)
Starters 1&2: Just play whoever you own that eats innings and has a good matchup!

Total Starting Cost: ~1200 PPs + Starting Pitchers
Total Net PPs: ~19500 PPs + Starting Pitchers


Thanks for reading this through, and again I hope you found this helpful and informative!

[kq76]

Wow, this is great. Thank you! Thanks especially for not just posting a spreadsheet, but explaining your thinking too.

I don't really understand the Ownership paragraph. Are you saying that we'll somehow get credit for playing players that aren't played so much by everyone?

I'm not sure I understand the DH/utility spots. Does the player you put in the DH spot actually have to play DH that game? And do the players you put in the utility spots have to come off the bench that day?

I was thinking one could probably do decently by keeping a pretty consistent lineup of players who play a lot and just focusing more on the starters and maybe relievers each day. Is that what you would advise?

And I agree with you about keeping your reliever spots mainly for silver (and maybe bronze) players, but would you keep one or even both of your starter spots open for gold and higher or no?

One thing I thought was a bit odd was how few pitcher slots there, especially considering there are even 2 utility spots. If you could tweak the number of slots per position, would you, or is what we have pretty ideal in your mind?

EDIT: Also, how are you coming by your stats in your spreadsheet? I gather they're projected stats b/c the most # of games is 126. I question them b/c, while I agree Juan Soto should come out of his funk at some point, he's the one player you recommend that I just can't get on board with until he shows he's back to his old self. EDIT2: I take that back about Soto. He's actually played really well this last week. I'm still curious about where the projections are from.

[Houston_Trashtros]

Awesome. Thanks for coming in with all of these questions, hopefully this will clear things up to you and other readers as well!


Regarding ownership: Ownership is a metric very often used for daily fantasy sports, and is often vital for creating top percentile lineups there. There are lots of articles about this online, but basically, it's really great if you have a high score that nobody else gets to have! This will matter quite a bit for daily leaderboards but won't matter a lot for longer term ones. Thus, how leaderboard points are awarded will affect how much ownership matters by a lot.


Regarding DH/Utility: These are just flex spots you can put any batter. I made a separate section for DH because they cannot be rostered at any other positions.


Regarding lineup management, I do expect you can mostly stick with the same hitters and closers, only switching them out on days off (or projected days off for closers via Closer Monkey.) So, you'll mostly just be making sure you have a decent starting pitcher each day. The exception is if you're playing towards the leaderboard and have a good collection. You will probably want to tinker to exploit certain matchups to maximize point output.



For rarity on starters, I think it will vary a lot day to day. A lot of the time, you should be able to find a silver or two with a good matchup to let you use more of your best hitters. Otherwise, there should be plenty of aces and #2s at gold to get you through any given day. The diamonds and perfects are really a luxury for the most part, but I mean if you happen to have DeGrom in your collection and he's going against Oakland or something, you gotta play him, right? EDIT: Because of the immense 50 point bonus (that I forgot to account for), you should ideally always play pitchers with a high strikeout projection (~7.5k's or more) regardless of rarity for leaderboard play.


As for slots, I don't really have a strong opinion on them. Having only a few pitching slots is pretty normal for fantasy contests, and the starting pitcher and reliever slots are higher maintenance in daily fantasy play, so I don't mind it at least.


Finally, all of these stats are taken from the BAT Rest of Season (hence, only ~126 games) projections (not unlike ZIPs, Fangraph Depth Charts, or Streamer. They can all be found on Fangraphs). One thing worth noting about projections is they tend to not care much about current performance, and assume player performance will mostly regress with their past performance. That's why you'll see guys like Sean Murphy with solid instead of god-like projections and Jose Abreu with actual home runs. I'd expect some regression for Juan Soto too, but it's totally reasonable to not buy in at that 5000 PP price tag.

[Kushiel]

Very cool! Thanks for sharing with us the time spent and attention to detail that you posted.

[BleedBlue]

Thanks for doing this! I don't play fantasy baseball so this is a huge help. Do you have any plans to update the information on a regular basis?

[Thundercrack]

This is awesome, thanks for posting it

[ubernoob]

I'll assume this will be just like DFS and you will want to stack 4-5 lineup slots in a roster as opposed to picking one offs for the highest payoffs.

[Houston_Trashtros]

Originally Posted by ubernoob

I'll assume this will be just like DFS and you will want to stack 4-5 lineup slots in a roster as opposed to picking one offs for the highest payoffs.

It really depends on how much emphasis OOTP puts on the daily contest as compared to the weekly and monthly leaderboards. Stacking expands your range of outcomes but generally decreases your median score, making it ideal for daily fantasy but impractical for monthly point accumulation.



That being said, if you can roster several players from the same team that all have high projections relative to the rest of the player pool, it's basically a free lunch since it boosts your range of outcomes without hurting your projected median total.

[ubernoob]

Completely fair, I thought it was a daily based thing. Didn't dig around enough to see it's leaderboard based for payoffs and stuff.

[CH1MA3RA]

WOW

thanks for putting this together!!!

I have a question though, I noticed a handful of players with NA as their position, is that because they simply aren't included in the PT database? There are some solid players included in that group.

[Ormondbeachdan]

Don't know if this is the right place but How do you see how many points you earned for individual players in your PT daily lineup.. Not total poins but individual points earned.. Thanks

[Houston_Trashtros]

WOW

thanks for putting this together!!!

I have a question though, I noticed a handful of players with NA as their position, is that because they simply aren't included in the PT database? There are some solid players included in that group.

You're welcome! Glad you got some use out of it.

Yeah, most of these guys should be players that aren't in PT yet (cross your fingers they show up in the next live update!), though it's certainly possible one or two slipped through the cracks via name mismatch between the spreadsheets.

I plan to update the projections and PT data a bit after the live update drops so hopefully a bunch of those NA's go away!

Don't know if this is the right place but How do you see how many points you earned for individual players in your PT daily lineup.. Not total poins but individual points earned.. Thanks

Just go to your past rosters tab. It's next to the "set live roster" and "leaderboard" buttons on the opposite side of the screen (far left) of the "Submit PT Live" Roster button. Hope that helps!

[Ormondbeachdan]

Thanks!!!!!!

[Houston_Trashtros]

Starters with Relief Pitcher Eligibility

Starters have scoring much more favorable to relievers, particularly since they are guaranteed to pitch. Thus, starting pitchers with reliever eligibility are practically locks when they show up even if they are unusual. The ones that are predicted to make 5+ starts this season are Connor Seabold, Sean Manaea, Josh Fleming, Dinelson Lamet, Yonny Chirinos, Jaime Barria, Dane Dunning, Ryan Yarbrough, Ronel Blanco, Matt Strahm, and Drey Jameson.

Nobody's Perfect

While not actual rarity downgrades, Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Soto, and Yordan Alvarez were widely expected to be promoted to perfect and were not. The next few days will be a good time to pick them up for PT Live play if you have not already, especially Juan Soto since he's the top LF.

Most Notable Rarity Shifts By Position

Catcher
Salvador Perez Silver > Gold
J.T. Realmuto Diamond > Gold
Willson Contreras Gold > Silver

The days of the Salvador Perez free square are over, though he remains a solid option at gold alongside Realmuto. Willson Contreras and MJ Melendez look quite reasonable as the new go-to low rarity options.

1st Base
Pete Alonso Diamond > Gold
Ryan Mountcastle Gold > Silver

Alonso and Mountcastle are now by far the top 1B in their rarities, and should see a good bulk of the action unless someone else has a good matchup.

2nd Base
Andres Gimenez Diamond > Gold
Matt McLain NEW Silver

Gimenez is much more playable as Gold even if he's unexciting. Matt McClain probably won't see a lot of action, but he's a decent rookie that plays in a hitter's ballpark so should be worth picking up once his price falls. Albies and Semien remain the go-to's here but really you'll mostly playing the matchups at 2B if you're tinkering frequently.

3rd Base
Rafael Devers Diamond > Gold
Austin Riley Diamond > Gold
Alex Bregman Diamond > Gold

The 3rd base spot (and your flex spots!) are suddenly looking very crowded since we have two of the best players in baseball available cheaply at Gold rarity. ABreg is a nice pickup as well for days with plus matchups.

Shortstop
Trea Turner Diamond > Gold
Xander Bogaerts Diamond > Gold
Willy Adames Gold > Silver

Trea Turner replaces Bobby Witt as the "set and forget" option at shortstop, while Adams looks to be a solid silver option once he takes the field again. Bogaerts is also very much worth picking up as a supplement to Turner.

Note that while Royce Lewis was just added, he isn't likely to see much use since the position is very crowded at gold and he doesn't project all that high on a per-game or rest of season basis.

Left Field
Teoscar Hernandez Gold > Silver
Corbin Carroll Gold > Diamond

Surprisingly quiet on this front. Teoscar joins Yelich as a cheap silver compliment to Schwarber (who is himself practically free now at Bronze). Carroll mostly falls out of viability at Diamond now that he's in direct competition with Juan Soto.

Center Field
Byron Buxton Perfect > Diamond
Michael Harris II Diamond > Gold
Brandon Nimmo Diamond > Gold

Not a ton of excitement here, as the trio of Trout, Julio Rodriguez, and Adolis Garcia still rule this position at their respective rarities. Still, these three will be much cheaper and a bit more useful as complementary options and are worth picking up.

Right Field
Anthony Santander Silver > Gold
Starling Marte Gold > Silver
Hunter Renfroe Gold > Silver

This position basically isn't affected at all, as it remains your Fernando Tatis/Ronald Acuna/Aaron Judge slot. Marte and Renfroe are the top "free" options now at RF but I imagine you will rarely be punting this position.

Starting Pitcher
Gerrit Cole Diamond > Gold
Framber Valdez Silver > Gold
Aaron Nola Diamond > Gold
Corbin Burnes Diamond > Gold
Sandy Alcanatra Diamond > Gold
Shane Bieber Gold > Silver
Zack Wheeler Gold > Diamond
Kevin Gausman Gold > Diamond
Dylan Cease Gold > Silver
Zac Gallen Gold > Diamond
Justin Verlander Perfect > Diamond

Since starters only pitch every 5 days, no single change is going to shift the meta a whole lot. However, with many top options falling in rarity, rostering good pitching will be cheaper than ever and you'll also have very slightly more high rarity spots for bats.

Closer

OOTP has been surprisingly hesitant to change reliever ratings. Alex Lange is a Gold now which makes him largely unplayable. Scott Barlow at silver gives him a slight price hike as a mega poverty option as well.

Conclusion

The new live update brings some serious shakeups to the Catcher and non-2B infield positions, but not a whole lot to the outfield positions. Be sure to take advantage of rarity drops to batters like Devers, Alonso, Riley, and Trea Turner and to starting pitchers including Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Sandy Alcanatra, and Shane Bieber!

[Wallguy]

There used to be a similar spreadsheet for all perfect team players. Does anyone have a new spreadsheet for this season?

[LeeD]

Thanks for the work. Cursing Ozzie Albies' promotion to Gold, but when you hit like a Gold, you get promoted.

[PunishedF2P]

Originally Posted by LeeD

Thanks for the work. Cursing Ozzie Albies' promotion to Gold, but when you hit like a Gold, you get promoted.

Same, but that's because I didn't have 10 of him!