Arbitration & Projected Payroll

PSUColonel · 12-15-2022, 02:38 PM

Does anyone know if arbitration estimates are included in future projected payroll analysis? I would think not since it's technically not been offered or settled upon even though there is an estimate.

On the other hand, I hope it is part of the estimated future payroll so it is easier to plan in terms of how much money you will have available to spend.

I was looking through the accounting sheets, and didn't see a breakdown, which got my curiosity up.

WyattGOAT · 12-15-2022, 02:53 PM

They definitely are included

PSUColonel · 12-15-2022, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WyattGOAT

They definitely are included

OK, thank you.

jimmysthebestcop · 12-15-2022, 06:40 PM

But remember it is an arbitration estimate so by then end of the season they can be totally wrong but it gives you an idea

oldfatbaldguy · 12-15-2022, 08:14 PM

Yeah, they are included, and they fluctuate as guys perform well or don't. That's the primary reason your money available for extensions (which is next year's budget) isn't a constant during the season. Contracts that aren't expiring, option years, and automatic renewals are all included in future payroll, but their value doesn't change during the season, and arbitration estimates do.

kq76 · 12-15-2022, 09:23 PM

Yeah, one of my requests is to designate a player to be released at the end of a season so you can increase your budgets. Of course, you'd have to make the game go through with it to prevent someone from exploiting it. As a GM I just don't see the point of these contracts limiting your budgets when you would rather jettison them later anyway.

PSUColonel · 12-15-2022, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

But remember it is an arbitration estimate so by then end of the season they can be totally wrong but it gives you an idea

Right...but at least it isn't a situation where it doesn't include it at all, and you then decide you want to (or not...depending on the case) offer arbitration to a player, and the entire estimate is/was wrong.

PSUColonel · 12-15-2022, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

Yeah, one of my requests is to designate a player to be released at the end of a season so you can increase your budgets. Of course, you'd have to make the game go through with it to prevent someone from exploiting it. As a GM I just don't see the point of these contracts limiting your budgets when you would rather jettison them later anyway.

I love this idea!! Did you suggest it?

kq76 · 12-15-2022, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I love this idea!! Did you suggest it?

It's in my Wishlist thread under "Plan Releases".

PSUColonel · 12-15-2022, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

It's in my Wishlist thread under "Plan Releases".

maybe mention it in the BETA forum...I can do it for you if you like (giving you full credit of course!

)

kq76 · 12-15-2022, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

maybe mention it in the BETA forum...I can do it for you if you like (giving you full credit of course!

)

Go ahead. I don't care about credit. I'd just be thrilled to see any of them make it in. Heck, a couple I wrote about 22 made it into 23, probably even before I wrote them, and I was thrilled about that.

MathBandit · 12-16-2022, 08:01 AM

My recent experience in an online league has taught me that for a human player, to a certain extent, the financial/budget side is all made up anyways - which might actually not be that far from reality I suppose when you think of the ways teams circumvent the cap (either CBT in baseball or hard cap in other sports) in real life.

Assume it's May 1st, you're in the red (overbudget) for this year, have 0 allotted draft budget, and are projected to be overbudget each of the next X years (I think the game shows 3? Either way, assume you're projected to be overbudget indefinitely).

Draft comes up. You might reasonably assume that as a team with negative money and no funds allotted to the draft that you'll have to cheap out and only sign scrubs. Turns out, you are still allowed to offer Slot to every player you pick and your owner will approve the offer, so you can go Slot - you just can't go over-slot. For bonus fun, if you are in the negative but *do* have say $5M allotted to the draft, you can offer that entire $5M to one player then still go slot on every other player after that.

Now, the draft is over, you're even more in the negative than you were before (since you spent money you didn't have on Slot offers for picks 1-5). You might think that now you're really pooched and tapped out, and that while this works for a year or two since you can still draft it's not sustainable since you'll never be able to extend or sign anyone due to no budget. It's true that you can't sign FAs, but the other part not so much. Let's say you have Juan Soto with one year of control left after the current one, and an Arb Estimate of $15M. The game will let you offer him a 1-year deal worth up to $15M since that was less than or equal to the money you already have 'committed'. But what the game/owner will *also* let you do is offer him a 10-year deal where year 1 is $15M and then years 2-10 are any number you want - because the owner only checks Current Year and Next Year when deciding if you have enough funds to offer the contract/extension.

So a team with negative money and no budget for the foreseeable future can still draft slot every year, and lock up their star homegrown players to insane deals beyond the years of control as long as the first year of the extension is less than the arb estimate for that year.

PSUColonel · 12-16-2022, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit

My recent experience in an online league has taught me that for a human player, to a certain extent, the financial/budget side is all made up anyways - which might actually not be that far from reality I suppose when you think of the ways teams circumvent the cap (either CBT in baseball or hard cap in other sports) in real life.

Assume it's May 1st, you're in the red (overbudget) for this year, have 0 allotted draft budget, and are projected to be overbudget each of the next X years (I think the game shows 3? Either way, assume you're projected to be overbudget indefinitely).

Draft comes up. You might reasonably assume that as a team with negative money and no funds allotted to the draft that you'll have to cheap out and only sign scrubs. Turns out, you are still allowed to offer Slot to every player you pick and your owner will approve the offer, so you can go Slot - you just can't go over-slot. For bonus fun, if you are in the negative but *do* have say $5M allotted to the draft, you can offer that entire $5M to one player then still go slot on every other player after that.

Now, the draft is over, you're even more in the negative than you were before (since you spent money you didn't have on Slot offers for picks 1-5). You might think that now you're really pooched and tapped out, and that while this works for a year or two since you can still draft it's not sustainable since you'll never be able to extend or sign anyone due to no budget. It's true that you can't sign FAs, but the other part not so much. Let's say you have Juan Soto with one year of control left after the current one, and an Arb Estimate of $15M. The game will let you offer him a 1-year deal worth up to $15M since that was less than or equal to the money you already have 'committed'. But what the game/owner will *also* let you do is offer him a 10-year deal where year 1 is $15M and then years 2-10 are any number you want - because the owner only checks Current Year and Next Year when deciding if you have enough funds to offer the contract/extension.

So a team with negative money and no budget for the foreseeable future can still draft slot every year, and lock up their star homegrown players to insane deals beyond the years of control as long as the first year of the extension is less than the arb estimate for that year.

I know I’ll get the argument “because it’s a game” from many, but to me this just sucks all of the fun out of being a GM. There aren’t many consequences for fiscal mismanagement it seems.

MathBandit · 12-16-2022, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I know I’ll get the argument “because it’s a game” from many, but to me this just sucks all of the fun out of being a GM. There aren’t many consequences for fiscal mismanagement it seems.

I don't disagree, and it's certainly changed how I view some parts of it.

On the other hand, though, maybe having some ability to manipulate financials is necessary to prevent a player or AI from drowning completely due to poor financial decisions in the past. If the As or Guardians decide to swing big on deGrom and Correa in Free Agency, maybe it's a good thing if they're not unable to ever make a draft pick or extend a player again for a decade because those deals went bad and now the team is completely and hopelessly underwater.

12-15-2022, 02:38 PM	#1
PSUColonel Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 13,141	Arbitration & Projected Payroll Does anyone know if arbitration estimates are included in future projected payroll analysis? I would think not since it's technically not been offered or settled upon even though there is an estimate. On the other hand, I hope it is part of the estimated future payroll so it is easier to plan in terms of how much money you will have available to spend. I was looking through the accounting sheets, and didn't see a breakdown, which got my curiosity up.

12-15-2022, 09:23 PM	#6
kq76 Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 12,037	Yeah, one of my requests is to designate a player to be released at the end of a season so you can increase your budgets. Of course, you'd have to make the game go through with it to prevent someone from exploiting it. As a GM I just don't see the point of these contracts limiting your budgets when you would rather jettison them later anyway. __________________ My OOTP Wishlist \| My FAQ List OOTP Wiki \| Your Recommended Team Nicknames, By City (A Crowdsourced Project) For Beta/Devs: Full screen (1920x1080)

12-15-2022, 02:53 PM	#2
WyattGOAT Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 159	They definitely are included

12-15-2022, 06:40 PM	#4
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	But remember it is an arbitration estimate so by then end of the season they can be totally wrong but it gives you an idea

12-15-2022, 08:14 PM	#5
oldfatbaldguy Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 395	Yeah, they are included, and they fluctuate as guys perform well or don't. That's the primary reason your money available for extensions (which is next year's budget) isn't a constant during the season. Contracts that aren't expiring, option years, and automatic renewals are all included in future payroll, but their value doesn't change during the season, and arbitration estimates do.

12-16-2022, 08:01 AM	#12
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,448	My recent experience in an online league has taught me that for a human player, to a certain extent, the financial/budget side is all made up anyways - which might actually not be that far from reality I suppose when you think of the ways teams circumvent the cap (either CBT in baseball or hard cap in other sports) in real life. Assume it's May 1st, you're in the red (overbudget) for this year, have 0 allotted draft budget, and are projected to be overbudget each of the next X years (I think the game shows 3? Either way, assume you're projected to be overbudget indefinitely). Draft comes up. You might reasonably assume that as a team with negative money and no funds allotted to the draft that you'll have to cheap out and only sign scrubs. Turns out, you are still allowed to offer Slot to every player you pick and your owner will approve the offer, so you can go Slot - you just can't go over-slot. For bonus fun, if you are in the negative but do have say $5M allotted to the draft, you can offer that entire $5M to one player then still go slot on every other player after that. Now, the draft is over, you're even more in the negative than you were before (since you spent money you didn't have on Slot offers for picks 1-5). You might think that now you're really pooched and tapped out, and that while this works for a year or two since you can still draft it's not sustainable since you'll never be able to extend or sign anyone due to no budget. It's true that you can't sign FAs, but the other part not so much. Let's say you have Juan Soto with one year of control left after the current one, and an Arb Estimate of $15M. The game will let you offer him a 1-year deal worth up to $15M since that was less than or equal to the money you already have 'committed'. But what the game/owner will also let you do is offer him a 10-year deal where year 1 is $15M and then years 2-10 are any number you want - because the owner only checks Current Year and Next Year when deciding if you have enough funds to offer the contract/extension. So a team with negative money and no budget for the foreseeable future can still draft slot every year, and lock up their star homegrown players to insane deals beyond the years of control as long as the first year of the extension is less than the arb estimate for that year.