Best Time to Sign Extensions?

[kq76]

I read a reddit post by someone saying what they felt were the best times of year to re-sign a player to an extension and I was surprised by some of it. I'm wondering 3 questions:

1) is this what others have seen?

2) when, in reality, are most players probably the most receptive?

3) when, in reality, do most extensions get signed?

My thinking of what would probably be realistic (from easiest to hardest to sign) is:

1) Off-Season Before FA - This really depends on whether you're soon up for FA. If you're this close to FA, you might as well wait and see what you can get on the open market, right? So, unless you really want to stay where you are or you're not up for FA, I don't see why you wouldn't wait. You might want to sign an extension rather than risk your team finding a better option in FA, but I doubt it. I could see management preferring to sign a player to an extension rather than paying a, probably more expensive, FA. I'm assuming the hypothetical player is not up for FA, otherwise I would place this time last. From the player's perspective you might want a bit of a break from baseball, but I'm also thinking that you'd like to get it out of the way as soon as possible and you've got little else, professionally, to worry about then.

2) FA until ST - I'm thinking extensions are not the priority during this time (at least not for management), that FAs are. But from a player's perspective I don't see why you wouldn't want to sign then, especially if you're thinking that your team might otherwise sign a FA at your position.

3) Spring Training - I'm thinking players would like to know where they'll be playing the next few years and with not as many spots available and competition during spring training you'd be secure in knowing you have a long-term deal. My guess is it's probably also a fairly ideal time for management to sign extensions as they're done with FAs for the most part and there's not as glaring of a need to trade for players. I'd consider putting this higher, but I'm thinking that as a player you'd prefer to just focus on ST.

4) Regular Season - I understand saying you don't want to talk about extensions during the RS is often used as a negotiating tactic to elicit a good offer during ST, but I do think some players would strongly prefer not thinking about extensions during the regular season thereby distracting or upsetting themselves (and yes, they're not the primary contact during negotiations, but make no mistake, their agents should update them on talks). Management, OTOH, I think would be motivated to talk during the RS. If we split this time up between early and late RS, I'd place late RS before early RS.

What say you?

[mytreds]

If it’s a guy who’s a guaranteed top tier player that has come through my system, I lock him into a deal that will give me the best years he has, typically early 20s to 30 or 31.

Otherwise I try to make 2-3 year deals to guys I want to keep and are older. I usually make extensions in the beginning of the off-season. Sometimes you can let a guy go to free agency and then resign him for less than he wanted when he was on your team.

[The Game]

In my Sox Baseball League, I tried re-signing Ed Farmer, He wanted $19 m per season. He emailed me in September wanting to be re-signed and wanted a 4 yr $7 M per contract. That's what he signed for. His ERA is 0.29 in 62 IP.

[Bobbyraz49]

I had a 29 year old decent pitcher. He wanted an 8 year deal at 27 million per. I let him hit free agency. I offered 5 yrs at 22 million per. He said no. I found out he signed a 4 year deal at 20 million per. Why didn't he ask me for 5 yrs at 22 million ?

[kq76]

Originally Posted by Bobbyraz49

I had a 29 year old decent pitcher. He wanted an 8 year deal at 27 million per. I let him hit free agency. I offered 5 yrs at 22 million per. He said no. I found out he signed a 4 year deal at 20 million per. Why didn't he ask me for 5 yrs at 22 million ?

I have to imagine it depends on how good your team is, his relationships there, etc. Or at least I hope so. I'm currently running some tests and I'm finding most players are pretty amenable to whatever I offer them as long as it's reasonable. But we just won the WS so I'm thinking that probably has a huge effect on it.

I'm keeping a list of my findings, but maybe the biggest one I think I've discovered is: if a player asks for what you think is a pretty good deal, maybe don't under-counter because there's a good chance he'll raise his ask. He'll still probably accept what he first asked for, but maybe no less. I like that.

Also, in FA I've found it's a lot trickier than trying to extend a player. That is, FAs' asks will be quite volatile going from too high to very reasonable back to too high. So you may have just offered them at the wrong time. I've also found it's quite common for a FA-to-be to ask for way too much from you late in the regular season and then immediately ask for much less once they hit FA, which makes no sense to me. If anything, I think they should probably cut off talks with you at some point in the RS, ask for more once they hit FA, and not decrease their ask by too much until late in FA. So far, asks throughout the year look pretty good, except for FA. I'll probably ask the devs to look at it once I'm done testing.

Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me, but I seem to remember players being much less willing to talk to you throughout the season. And so once they got to FA their asks didn't seem so bizarre. I wonder if this was changed at some point to make the game more fun. Or maybe I'm totally imagining all that.

[TwinsTHunter]

Originally Posted by kq76

I have to imagine it depends on how good your team is, his relationships there, etc. Or at least I hope so. I'm currently running some tests and I'm finding most players are pretty amenable to whatever I offer them as long as it's reasonable. But we just won the WS so I'm thinking that probably has a huge effect on it.

I'm keeping a list of my findings, but maybe the biggest one I think I've discovered is: if a player asks for what you think is a pretty good deal, maybe don't under-counter because there's a good chance he'll raise his ask. He'll still probably accept what he first asked for, but maybe no less. I like that.

Also, in FA I've found it's a lot trickier than trying to extend a player. That is, FAs' asks will be quite volatile going from too high to very reasonable back to too high. So you may have just offered them at the wrong time. I've also found it's quite common for a FA-to-be to ask for way too much from you late in the regular season and then immediately ask for much less once they hit FA, which makes no sense to me. If anything, I think they should probably cut off talks with you at some point in the RS, ask for more once they hit FA, and not decrease their ask by too much until late in FA. So far, asks throughout the year look pretty good, except for FA. I'll probably ask the devs to look at it once I'm done testing.

Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me, but I seem to remember players being much less willing to talk to you throughout the season. And so once they got to FA their asks didn't seem so bizarre. I wonder if this was changed at some point to make the game more fun. Or maybe I'm totally imagining all that.

The post on Reddit I agree with for the most part. I would just add that "in-season" is better during like June-August. If you try to extend guys on opening day, or right after, you'll see a lot of them "accept" your offer, but once you submit it, three days later they respond with an email saying they want more money. I have no idea why this happens, but it happens a lot more often in the first week of the regular season. I've been purposely making extension offers on or just after opening day, and I'd say 40-50% of the extensions end this way.

Some players will say they want to test FA when you try to negotiate during the season, which is a risk of course, but most of these players will eventually listen to extension offers if you just keep checking every week or so. The exception is if they won't resign because they don't like your manager or something, that won't go away unless you switch managers obviously.

And I wholeheartedly agree the best extension time is once you hit the off-season, before free agency begins for players that still have team control. I don't think that's the best time to resign a player who is set to hit free agency in three weeks, though. Those guys should've been resigned during the season.

[billyray1984]

Before players are arb elligible :

Good players will usually not sign long term extensions or they ask for what they could ask in arb in their first year if they could get it. Usually not worth it. Fair players/bench guys/relief pitchers can sometimes sign for very low money long term (4-5 years) and if they are valuable to your organization, that can reduce their cost to the organization long term. This is especially true of future closers or starting pitchers who project to be a number 3 or more in the rotation.

Arb elligble players with 2 or more years of team control :

The best time to extend them is when they are slumping in season or after a bad year before arbitration, provided you know they'll be able to provide the goods in the future. This is usually when I'll take a decision to sign long term a guy or not. I will usually not sign guys in season if they are having a career year since they'll ask for the moon and I'll have the following years to sign them for an extension if I want.

Arb elligible players with only one year left of team control/future free agent at the end of the year :

I have found that signing these guys in season is best, again at a time when their performance is slumping, or during spring training. If you are winning, they are performing well you are in July or later and they know they'll hit FA this year or next year, there's not usually a way to bring their ask down. I try to not be in this situation since you'll either have to overpay, you'll have to extend until the guy is old or you'll lose the guy in FA. You also have guys who will hit FA and their ask will go WAY down and might be willing to talk to you even though you let them walk. This is especially true of role players, not so much for good or great regulars.

Another (dirty) trick is to demote a guy in AAA to buy another year of team control or bring a player's ask down. Not doable if they are an integral part of your team and you are in a playoff race, but if you are in July and out of playoff contention and want to sign that young future ace long term, just demote him to AAA and maybe buy another year of arb or reduce his arb estimate (which will reduce his asking price).

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by TwinsTHunter

The post on Reddit I agree with for the most part. I would just add that "in-season" is better during like June-August. If you try to extend guys on opening day, or right after, you'll see a lot of them "accept" your offer, but once you submit it, three days later they respond with an email saying they want more money. I have no idea why this happens, but it happens a lot more often in the first week of the regular season. I've been purposely making extension offers on or just after opening day, and I'd say 40-50% of the extensions end this way.

Some players will say they want to test FA when you try to negotiate during the season, which is a risk of course, but most of these players will eventually listen to extension offers if you just keep checking every week or so. The exception is if they won't resign because they don't like your manager or something, that won't go away unless you switch managers obviously.

And I wholeheartedly agree the best extension time is once you hit the off-season, before free agency begins for players that still have team control. I don't think that's the best time to resign a player who is set to hit free agency in three weeks, though. Those guys should've been resigned during the season.

Fairly certain the agreeing then reneging on a contract extension happens when there's a ratings change. And there's a lot of ratings changes in the end of preseason/first week of the season.

[kq76]

After recording the same 12-23 (some signed LTCs or as FAs at some point) players' asks (extensions and FA) every week for an entire year (including the Off Season), this is what I found:

• if you think a player's ask is a really good deal, it probably is, and it might get a lot higher so you should probably sign him now
• after players give their next year's asks (after the arbitration hearings), they don't change them much until PreS, and the better they are, generally the more their asks will increase, so this is probably the best time to offer them an extension
• surprisingly, lesser players will often ask for much less right at the start of FA than they asked from you earlier in an extension (in my testing there wasn't a lack of FAs, but if there is this might change)
• if a player is not a must have re-sign for you, highly consider letting them go to FA and try re-signing them there
• high ask FA players' asks will often drop precipitously during FA, but of course you run the risk that they will sign elsewhere
• the AI likes to make extension offers right after the WS, before AH/FA; the AI usually does not bother signing extensions until the OS
• players often increase their extension asks at the start of a new period (OD, TD, FA, PreS, but not ST, RS, or OS)
• there's a decent chance that players' extension asks will decrease shortly after the RS and after a week or more after OD
• pitchers' extension asks during the RS tend to fluctuate much less than batters, maybe b/c batters play more often
• some players change their ask a lot, but often they'll go up, down, up, down, up; often low ask players' asks never change
• players may ask you to buyout their arb years, but they usually don't (never?) ask you to buyout their FA years too
• asks don't change much from the RS to PostS, but maybe that's different for teams not in the PostS?
• players will often sign a contract (lower than their ask) before their arbitration hearing
• players' new ask after their arbitration hearing will naturally be higher as they're now asking about next year's
• I did not find any players unwilling to talk to me, but that might have been b/c we just won the WS
• if you need budget room, consider decreasing your development and draft budgets
• players' asks will even change if they're out with a long-term injury
• a lot of people say that they can sign players to better contracts after the player struggles for awhile, but I can't confirm or deny that as I wasn't looking at that
• if a player hasn't played much one year, but you think they'll play a lot more, and well, the next year, you should probably sign them now as their ask will probably go up

And to counter that reddit post:

• I do not at all agree that the PreS or ST is the worst time to sign a player to an extension. Yes, some asks do go up in the PreS. but some go down, and most are only going to trend up over the rest of the year. So, if you haven't signed them already, then you might as well then (unless, of course, you think they'll regress). And there's next to no difference between PreS and ST. ST is actually the period with the most consistent asks. There are some not so great times to offer a contract (players often increase their extension asks at the start of some new periods (OD, TD, AH/FA, PreS)), but I wouldn't say any time is the worst.
• The best time period I saw, by far, was "as soon as possible". Thankfully, this makes it all much easier to remember. Again, over time, (young) players' asks are only going to trend up, so you might as well ask them while they're still low. Now you might want to wait until after their arbitration hearing so that the last year of the contract you offer them will be another FA year, or you might want to see them improve a bit first before committing to them, but I consistently saw asks trend up (they might go up and down week after week, but over time they will trend up). So, again, you might as well sign them earlier while their ask is still low.
• As far as front-loading, I don't agree either. Players will often be fine taking less in their first year so why offer them more? Plus, if things go south, you can probably ship them off later or maybe one of you will opt out. Yes, it could make sense if you think your payroll will be too high in the later years of the contract, but then you've given up the chance to get out of more of the contract.

EDIT: If the redditor sees this post, please understand I didn't at all start this thread to pick on you. I just found the post very curious. If anything, I thank you for getting me to think about all this in such detail. I even plan on looking more into the real life extension/arbitration process.

[BBGiovanni]

Thanks for this, I've always waited around for them to complain a couple of times, thinking the offers would get better only to end up watching the guy walk because they got worse. I'm not sure that's logical to real humans, but I'm glad to know how it works.

I think this is kind of self-selecting though, because if it's somebody I really want to keep around I usually throw gold bars at him right away, and only the guys I'm indifferent to keeping that have all season to send me grumpy emails.

[Bobfather]

I have found a problem with extensions. I am often able to sign players to a reasonable extension between the end of season and free agent filing day.