Trevor Bauer

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by BMW

'This Should Be the Biggest Scandal in Sports'
The inside story of how rampant pitch-doctoring in MLB is pumping pitchers up and deflating offenses.

Stephanie Apstein and Alex Prewitt
13 hours ago

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/st...ds-daily-cover

I'm at the age now where I'm in the burn the village down camp. If guys are blatantly cheating then either stop it or let MLB go the way of WWE

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Cod]

I'm curious, is the MLB the only "major" baseball league to constantly be dealing with a new controversy? Does ***, KBO, etc. have these type of controversies (steroids, etc.) every so often?

[BMW]

Originally Posted by Cod

I'm curious, is the MLB the only "major" baseball league to constantly be dealing with a new controversy? Does ***, KBO, etc. have these type of controversies (steroids, etc.) every so often?

The Chinese Professional Baseball League (which are a step down from the KBO and play in Taiwan) has had no less than five gambling and game-fixing scandals from 1996 to 2009.

There have been steroid suspensions in Japan, but they use Olympic doping test standards. So they never had to make the kind of concessions the MLB had to make to not anger the incredibly powerful Player's Union. KBO is probably similar too in testing policy.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by BMW

'This Should Be the Biggest Scandal in Sports'
The inside story of how rampant pitch-doctoring in MLB is pumping pitchers up and deflating offenses.

Stephanie Apstein and Alex Prewitt
13 hours ago

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/st...ds-daily-cover

If you're a huge fan, like I am, all you have to see are the whiffle balls coming up to the plate. Never seen anything like it.

[Cod]

What I find odd, or maybe pitchers just giving the competition committee a giant middle finger, is that more pitchers didn't switch to darker gloves. Looking at the inside webbing of most pitchers' gloves looks significantly darker than the rest of the mitt (even the pocket).

[cephasjames]

MLB says they want umps enforce the foriegn substance rule now since it seems so out of control. It feels a bit like steroids and PEDs all over again. MLB knows these things happen and they allow them "to help the game" but then things get out of hand. Hypocritically they decide to crack down.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

MLB says they want umps enforce the foriegn substance rule now since it seems so out of control. It feels a bit like steroids and PEDs all over again. MLB knows these things happen and they allow them "to help the game" but then things get out of hand. Hypocritically they decide to crack down.

You have this exactly correct. Hard to look the other way when Woodruff is SECOND in ERA at 1.27, and the league is hitting around .236.

Looks like whiffle balls coming up to the plate.

[Westheim]

Can we just all agree that Jacob deGrom's 0.62 ERA with 14.4 K/9 is genuine?

His 5-2 record sure is genuinely Metsian.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Can we just all agree that Jacob deGrom's 0.62 ERA with 14.4 K/9 is genuine?

His 5-2 record sure is genuinely Metsian.

deGrom's 4-seam spin-rate is actually down a touch so far this year compared to last and barely up on 2019. Since 2015 his 4-seam spin rate has increased by only about 150-200 rpm, which is about what to expect (imo) of a pitcher mastering his craft. So in the opinion of this person who can sometimes read data accurately but sometimes can't, I don't think deGrom is using sticky stuff

[Izz]

Though he does use a dark glove...

[BMW]

Originally Posted by Izz

deGrom's 4-seam spin-rate is actually down a touch so far this year compared to last and barely up on 2019. Since 2015 his 4-seam spin rate has increased by only about 150-200 rpm, which is about what to expect (imo) of a pitcher mastering his craft. So in the opinion of this person who can sometimes read data accurately but sometimes can't, I don't think deGrom is using sticky stuff

Yeah, I think - and this is a completely low research opinion - deGrom's super human talent is his ability to repeat his ideal delivery motion, reporters and announcers note that he's known for making successful corrections to his delivery in-game. Stuff that can take pitchers weeks or seasons to do with a pitching coach, de Grom does it in the middle of a game without becoming wild or hanging pitches over the plate.

Opposing players and analysts credit his command. Putting more spin on the ball will make it move more, but it won't guarantee it will go where you want it to.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by BMW

Yeah, I think - and this is a completely low research opinion - deGrom's super human talent is his ability to repeat his ideal delivery motion, reporters and announcers note that he's known for making successful corrections to his delivery in-game. Stuff that can take pitchers weeks or seasons to do with a pitching coach, de Grom does it in the middle of a game without becoming wild or hanging pitches over the plate.

Opposing players and analysts credit his command. Putting more spin on the ball will make it move more, but it won't guarantee it will go where you want it to.

I call BS.

Doctored baseballs make average pitchers good, good pitchers great, and great pitchers like DeGrom have an ERA 1/3rd of the way into the season of 0.63.

I note, with amusement, that Bauer lost 223 RPM off his curve today. DeGrom will likely also see a drop.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

I note, with amusement, that Bauer lost 223 RPM off his curve today. DeGrom will likely also see a drop.

What about his fastball? That's considered the indicator pitch according to that SI article linked to up-thread.

[BMW]

Originally Posted by Izz

What about his fastball? That's considered the indicator pitch according to that SI article linked to up-thread.

I mean, I don't know about deGrom or really any pitcher. Ultimately time will tell with people who are in far better positions to investigate than you or I.

I'm not that savvy with Baseball Savant, but Bauer's fastball spin rate was in the 100th percentile this season (even including his last game). So he's the top of the heap there. deGrom is only in the 79th percentile for fastball spin.

deGrom also pitched on 5 Jun, after the announcement and there's no dip in his fastball spin.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by BMW

I mean, I don't know about deGrom or really any pitcher. Ultimately time will tell with people who are in far better positions to investigate than you or I.

I'm not that savvy with Baseball Savant, but Bauer's fastball spin rate was in the 100th percentile this season (even including his last game). So he's the top of the heap there. deGrom is only in the 79th percentile for fastball spin.

deGrom also pitched on 5 Jun, after the announcement and there's no dip in his fastball spin.

So Bauer's still elbow deep in the sticky stuff. deGrom, well, I still don't think he is. His 4-seam spin rate hasn't risen steeply enough at any point, imo

[BMW]

Originally Posted by Izz

So Bauer's still elbow deep in the sticky stuff. deGrom, well, I still don't think he is. His 4-seam spin rate hasn't risen steeply enough at any point, imo

It's just so much speculation from our vantage point. All we can really do is give opinions from, frankly, a really far distance away.

I pulled the 4 seamer spin for Bauer, deGrom and Cole from 2015-present (present seems to be on the left). I also grabbed two pitchers at semi-random. I just wanted some guys who pitched during that time frame and also had 4 seamers. Bauer, Cole and deGrom all go up over time, probably in that order of how much they went up. Gibson and Martinez didn't really do much over that period, they were fairly flat.

One of the things about this situation is that rosin bags have been legal for a long time. So part of the game expects that the pitcher should be allowed to have a good grip on the ball - in fact there's a vested interest in a pitcher having a good grip so that 90mph fastball doesn't fly at your head. It's a classic death-by-a-thousand-cuts situation. Using pine tar to get some tack to your fingertips, the discovery that some sunscreens + rosin will form adhesive.

It's no wonder that something like this could have escalated at a glacial pace to get to where it is today. I'm sure steroids too a similar path from let's do weight training > let's eat right > these vitamins are good > hey here's some tailor-made chemicals > these steroids aren't technically against the rules > etc. It's inevitable that this would culminate in Jose Canseco flipping a moving bus on I-95 like he was in an Avenger's film.

[Izz]

Nice data!

The thing I notice about both Bauer and Cole is sudden steep rises. Bauer recently, which corelates with what we already know about him and his changing attitude towards the sticky stuff. Cole's sudden steep rise looks like it coincides with his trade to the Astros, which is an interesting data point considering Bauer's semi-cryptic accusation a few years back that the Astros love their sticky stuff.

deGrom's increased spin rate has been steady and only within the range that is accepted as potentially natural improvement (not saying it is or isn't).

Martinez's fastball looks to have worsened, which is kinda funny, given how many fans find him so frustrating to watch (great one start, mud the next). And Gibson's stayed fairly steady, though his top outliers are recent and impressive.

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by Izz

Bauer recently, which corelates with what we already know about him and his changing attitude towards the sticky stuff.

I wonder if he didn't change his attitude as much as he was trying to make a point by showing just how much substances can help. EDIT: As in, he'd been trying to blow the whistle verbally through hints and allegations, but now he's trying to do it by actually showing the difference.

From this article:

Without explicitly saying his name, Bauer accused Cole and the Astros of using foreign substances to improve spin rates a few years ago. "If only there was just a really quick way to increase spin rate. Like what if you could trade for a player knowing that you could bump his spin rate a couple hundred rpm overnight...imagine the steals you could get on the trade market! If only that existed..." Bauer wrote in a tweet.

Bauer later wrote that he knew he could increase his spin rate 400 rpm with foreign substances, and lo and behold, his spin rates increased roughly 400 rpm when he joined Cincinnati the next year. The 2020 NL Cy Young winner has not been subtle about it. Momentum, a company co-founded by Bauer, even sells "Legalize Pine Tar" merchandise on its website.

"I don't know," Bauer told reporters, including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, when asked about the drop in his spin rates Sunday. "Hot, humid day in Atlanta. I just want to compete on a fair playing field. I'll say it again. That's been the whole point this entire time. Let everyone compete on a fair playing field. So if you're going to enforce it then enforce it. And if you're not then stop sweeping it under the rug, which is what they've done for four years now."

[Izz]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

I wonder if he didn't change his attitude as much as he was trying to make a point by showing just how much substances can help. EDIT: As in, he'd been trying to blow the whistle verbally through hints and allegations, but now he's trying to do it by actually showing the difference.

Yeah, I've long thought that way and said basically the same in other discussions on Bauer. However, I'm beginning to wonder (just from observation - no evidence to back it up - like how his cockiness has gone to a whole new level this season) if he's started to embrace the sticky stuff because of how good it's making him

[cephasjames]

That's quite possible.

It'll be interesting to see what effect the crackdown on substances will have on pitchers in the long run.