Cold players: Does it cover all facets of the game

rink23 · 01-20-2021, 09:17 AM

When a player is hit with a cold rating, does it affect just his batting or his entire game.
My catcher, who is probably a bit-above average defender, has allowed five wild pitches in the first three games of my best-of-five championship series.
Also my bullpen, which was rated as the best of the league, has taken a pounding in losses in Games 2 and 3.
My team trails 2-1 and is on the brink of elimination.
I can't really replace him, as my backup is just a body and below average defensively, but I'd keep it in consideration as the postseason continues.

Bobfather · 01-20-2021, 04:43 PM

My understanding is that Cold or hot are not ratings. Just a measure if the player is in a slump or a hot streak. On the Manager or team page, you can choose a panel that will show the current stats for hot or cold players. Hope that helps.

Syd Thrift · 01-20-2021, 05:18 PM

Actually, there *is* a streak/slump mechanic in the game, as there ought to be - players are much more prone to hot and cold spells than random chance would dictate, and this has been studied. I’m not sure if there’s anything that helps to keep streaks going but a player’s mental attributes, particularly if memory serves Work Ethic and Intelligence, as well as your coaching staff, can help to break slumps.

I may be wrong but I’m almost positive that it only pertains to hitting and pitching. Fielding is I believe unaffected (although I’d prefer it if it were on its own streak/slump style track), as is baserunning (“speed doesn’t slump”).

Brad K · 01-20-2021, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Actually, there *is* a streak/slump mechanic in the game, as there ought to be

Really? First I've heard of this.

BirdWatcher · 01-20-2021, 09:28 PM

Looking through past threads about this it seems that the consensus is that these hot or cold indicators are merely bringing attention to recent trends in a players performance and have no effect on any future results.

Having said that, I could swear that somewhere along the line a developer said that this wasn't entirely true- that there was some subtle influence on performance when a player technically met the qualifications for a hot or cold indicator. Small and subtle, is what I remember them saying, but not entirely absent.

Can't find the thread where this was revealed, if indeed there is such a thread.
Am I imagining this?

Syd Thrift · 01-20-2021, 11:22 PM

I think the hot/cold indicators are purely statistical but I’m around 99% positive that there is still streak/slump management in the game. There definitely was around OOTP10 or so and they haven’t reworked the engine that I’ve heard of since then.

WestCoastGuy · 01-22-2021, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

players are much more prone to hot and cold spells than random chance would dictate, and this has been studied

Can you share one or more studies? I remember reading one a while back about basketball players and how them being on a hot or cold shooting streak was actually a myth.

RonCo · 01-22-2021, 06:58 PM

Maybe I need to refresh my memory. I mean, it's been awhile. But the last time I remember digging into it I don't recall there being any real proof of streaks existing beyond what can be accounted for by random chance.

mytreds · 01-24-2021, 10:34 PM

Seems like hearsay without much evidence.

The hot/cold indicator is just that an indicator. It doesn’t make a player more or less prone to success/failure. The yips don’t exist in this simulator.

Syd Thrift · 01-25-2021, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WestCoastGuy

Can you share one or more studies? I remember reading one a while back about basketball players and how them being on a hot or cold shooting streak was actually a myth.

I believe the one you’re thinking of is from the 1990s and it looked at NBA free throw attempts. Here’s a report on a much newer study from 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-is-real/

WestCoastGuy · 01-25-2021, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I believe the one you’re thinking of is from the 1990s and it looked at NBA free throw attempts. Here’s a report on a much newer study from 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-is-real/

Unfortunately, I don't remember the exact basketball study, but it did focus on shooting during the run of play.

Thanks for the link. That was a really interesting read.

01-20-2021, 09:17 AM	#1
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,430	Cold players: Does it cover all facets of the game When a player is hit with a cold rating, does it affect just his batting or his entire game. My catcher, who is probably a bit-above average defender, has allowed five wild pitches in the first three games of my best-of-five championship series. Also my bullpen, which was rated as the best of the league, has taken a pounding in losses in Games 2 and 3. My team trails 2-1 and is on the brink of elimination. I can't really replace him, as my backup is just a body and below average defensively, but I'd keep it in consideration as the postseason continues.

01-20-2021, 09:28 PM	#5
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,263	Looking through past threads about this it seems that the consensus is that these hot or cold indicators are merely bringing attention to recent trends in a players performance and have no effect on any future results. Having said that, I could swear that somewhere along the line a developer said that this wasn't entirely true- that there was some subtle influence on performance when a player technically met the qualifications for a hot or cold indicator. Small and subtle, is what I remember them saying, but not entirely absent. Can't find the thread where this was revealed, if indeed there is such a thread. Am I imagining this? __________________ The Denver Brewers of the W.P. Kinsella League-- The fun starts here(1965-1971: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=289570 And continues here (1972-1976): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=300500 On we go (1977- 1979): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=314601 For ongoing and more random updates on the WPK:https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=325147, https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=330717

01-24-2021, 10:34 PM	#9
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,182	Seems like hearsay without much evidence. The hot/cold indicator is just that an indicator. It doesn’t make a player more or less prone to success/failure. The yips don’t exist in this simulator. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.

01-20-2021, 04:43 PM	#2
Bobfather All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Boston Ma. Posts: 1,748	My understanding is that Cold or hot are not ratings. Just a measure if the player is in a slump or a hot streak. On the Manager or team page, you can choose a panel that will show the current stats for hot or cold players. Hope that helps.

01-22-2021, 06:58 PM	#8
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,501	Maybe I need to refresh my memory. I mean, it's been awhile. But the last time I remember digging into it I don't recall there being any real proof of streaks existing beyond what can be accounted for by random chance.