"And the ball popped out of his glove!"

[kriscolic]

Why are my outfielders dropping fly balls 3-5 times a season?

Stop it. Just stop it.

[pgjocki]

Have you ever watched Marcell Ozuna play outfield?

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[Reed]

I saw the ball bounce out of Al Smith's glove twice on one play, and then he caught it before it hit the ground.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

Why are my outfielders dropping fly balls 3-5 times a season?

Stop it. Just stop it.

What is the correct number?

[kriscolic]

Implicit in that question is the suggestion that if I don't know the answer to a question I should accept whatever answer is proffered. If there isn't already a fancy Latin name for that logical fallacy, there should be.

The answer to your question is: less. 30 teams each dropping 3 fly balls per season would amount to 90 over the course of a season. A season is about 180 days long. Does anybody care to argue that real MLB outfielders are collectively dropping a fly ball every other day?

I'm not saying that fly balls which ought to be caught don't find their way to the outfield grass on occasion. Of course they do. Balls are lost in the sun or in the lights. Outfielders pull up at the last second when they're about to collide with a teammate or with the wall. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about instances where the play by play explicitly states that the outfielder just plain dropped the ball. This is an exceedingly rare occurrence.

Look, I get that I'm picking nits. But it is unrealistic, and realism is one of the points of the game. What something this ridiculous happens, it detracts from my enjoyment of the game in the moment. The smallness of this detail is kind of the point. Something so small should be easy to correct.

[CBeisbol]

No
Implicit in the question is that this is a data-driven game.

If, IRL, there's 1 dropped ball every X games, then the game should strive for 1 dropped ball every X games.

Just saying "it feels like too many balls are being dropped by OFers" isn't going to be as effective as bringing about change as "IRL there are X dropped balls per Y games. In OOTP I have observed there are Z dropped balls per W games"

[kriscolic]

So before I can legitimately post a concern on these forums I have to spend thousands of hours playing games and cataloging the frequency of a specific play by play event, spend (at least) dozens of hours mining real life play by play data (if that information is even available somewhere), and submit a study comparing the two data sets?

[Syd Thrift]

Or else produce data that indicate that 3-5 dropped fly balls per outfielder per season is some extraordinarily bad number. I imagine that if you, like, showed that MLB has had 6 muffed flies in the past 5 years (I’m making up those numbers) that, coupled with your observation, would probably be enough to convince someone to tweak something. “It makes me feel sad” isn’t going to be enough, however.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

Implicit in that question is the suggestion that if I don't know the answer to a question I should accept whatever answer is proffered. If there isn't already a fancy Latin name for that logical fallacy, there should be.

Yeah, it’s called “modus doyourownresearchanddontexpectthecommunitytodoitfo ryou”.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

So before I can legitimately post a concern on these forums I have to spend thousands of hours playing games and cataloging the frequency of a specific play by play event, spend (at least) dozens of hours mining real life play by play data (if that information is even available somewhere), and submit a study comparing the two data sets?

You may post whatever concern you have
But

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Just saying "it feels like too many balls are being dropped by OFers" isn't going to be as effective as bringing about change as "IRL there are X dropped balls per Y games. In OOTP I have observed there are Z dropped balls per W games"

[kriscolic]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Or else produce data that indicate that 3-5 dropped fly balls per outfielder per season is some extraordinarily bad number. I imagine that if you, like, showed that MLB has had 6 muffed flies in the past 5 years (I’m making up those numbers) that, coupled with your observation, would probably be enough to convince someone to tweak something. “It makes me feel sad” isn’t going to be enough, however.

As stated in my previous post, 3 dropped balls per team per year would mean a dropped ball somewhere in MLB every other day. Do I really need to do hours of tedious research to prove that that is not what happens in reality?

[slugga27]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

As stated in my previous post, 3 dropped balls per team per year would mean a dropped ball somewhere in MLB every other day. Do I really need to do hours of tedious research to prove that that is not what happens in reality?

You don’t indicate in the OP that this “problem” is affecting the rest of the league.


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[Sweed]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

As stated in my previous post, 3 dropped balls per team per year would mean a dropped ball somewhere in MLB every other day. Do I really need to do hours of tedious research to prove that that is not what happens in reality?

What makes you think all of the other teams are dropping fly balls at the same rate as yours? You'd have to watch all of their games too to see this, maybe you are? I don't know. If not it could just be your team. You may have run into a bad run of "dice rolls". Is your opponent also dropping fly balls too? IE are you seeing 6-10 drops per season in the games you play? If not that suggests it's your outfielders or a string of bad luck, I think. How many seasons has this happened? There are thousand of users, playing hundreds of thousands of seasons in OOTP. I think one could argue if one user saw this over a few seasons it could still be chalked up to bad luck.

I see nobody else coming in and saying "I see the same thing in my leagues". I can tell you I play out all of my games and have not noticed this (more at the end of the post). It could be as simple as your leagues settings. Have you autocalced your league total modifiers? They control errors by position along with many other things. I suppose one possibility is the game gets OF error numbers right but has the ratio of drops to mishandled after it hits the ground, resulting in base runners advancing, wrong. The trouble is if Markus reduces drops based on one user seeing too many he reduces drops for everyone even though nobody else has reported the issue (to my knowledge) independently or come into this thread to say "I see it in my game too".

No you do not have to do any research but keep in mind that, while Markus is open minded and will make changes based on user input, he will, in my experience, not do it on someone's impressions based on no data and small sample sizes. And that is a good thing.

The good of this thread is it will plant a seed in the mind of some of us that play out games to be watchful for OF drops. You are right it is a rare thing in real life. It could be because of this rarity I have missed seeing "too many" in my games I play out. That however is my impression and not based on data. Could be looking for it now will show me I was wrong

[quillenl]

OFers in 2019 averaged 3-5 errors per season in 2019 (15.97 OF errors per team). Not sure what percentage of errors in the OF are non fly balls... but I'm sure OOTP does not know the dfifference between a line drive and a Fly Ball. This is actually an improvement on past seasons where teams were averaging 30 OF errors per season as recently as 1986.

3-5 actually sounds entirely reasonable when looking at some of the only numbers available.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by quillenl

OFers in 2019 averaged 3-5 errors per season in 2019 (15.97 OF errors per team). Not sure what percentage of errors in the OF are non fly balls... but I'm sure OOTP does not know the dfifference between a line drive and a Fly Ball. This is actually an improvement on past seasons where teams were averaging 30 OF errors per season as recently as 1986.

3-5 actually sounds entirely reasonable when looking at some of the only numbers available.

The problem, if there is one, is that OOTP probably doesn't know what kind of errors OFers make. They can drop flyballs/line drives, they can make throwing errors and they can misplay ground balls. If OOTP doesn't know the correct proportions of those errors then it may produce too many (or two few) of the balls popping out of the glove type and not enough of the other types

Which is why telling users to collect data is important

[HerbD]

Seems topic appropriate

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by HerbD

Seems topic appropriate

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/stat...477994496?s=09

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

As stated in my previous post, 3 dropped balls per team per year would mean a dropped ball somewhere in MLB every other day. Do I really need to do hours of tedious research to prove that that is not what happens in reality?

Of course not. Just ask as you have and the developers will spend many hours of tedious re-programming to make the game achieve a result which is different but we still don't know if it is right.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

So before I can legitimately post a concern on these forums I have to spend thousands of hours playing games and cataloging the frequency of a specific play by play event, spend (at least) dozens of hours mining real life play by play data (if that information is even available somewhere), and submit a study comparing the two data sets?

It's called a small sample size. Anything can happen over a week or whatever amount of time that seems like it's way to much only to even out over the season.

[Bobbyraz49]

Here's an actual 4 base error that occurred yesterday in MLB....

https://www.mlb.com/news/jo-adell-4-...love-over-wall