Please take a good hard look at POWER vs CONTACT balance

[DonMattingly]

Originally Posted by RonCo

CONTACT is a function of BABIP, POW, and AvK, so it is possible for cases of two players with equal CONTACT ratings to have situations where the Higher BABIP rating (and low POW) is paired with a considerably lower AvK rating whereas a lower BABIP rating and higher POW rating will come in paired with a higher AvK...and, again, still have constant CONTACT.

The difficulty you're having right now is that you've latched onto the idea of grouping low POW/high BABIP players as a single entity. This makes you look at everything from an angle that is not really "right" even though it can appear to be right at times.

I've been assuming that AvoidK has been equal, as I did with my hitter A vs hitter B example. Narrowing down the issue to just POW and BABIP. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

With AvoidK and CON being equal, a high POW hitter should have a lower BABIP than a low POW hitter. That is what I think is producing the BA differences in the higher leagues.

I am sure there are also more low POW cards with high AvoidK ratings in PT, but there are some high POW guys out there with high AvoidKs.

Although I have no idea if this idea holds true for PEAK cards, for all I know their ratings are purely drawn from single season career highs.

[RonCo]

Ok. Yes. If AVK is equal, in an environment where pitcher Movement is very high, I can see that every low Power guys would not get hurt as much as very high Power guys. A guy who would normally be expected to hit 5 HR a year in a "normal" environment might hit only 2 per year (therefore losing 3 hits), where as a guy who would normally be expected to hit 45 might hit only 38, hence lose 7 hits (a difference of four hits between the two...or a difference of seven points of average on 550 AB). The BABIP rating would replace a few of those--let's say two. So the gap due to difference is maybe four points of batting average across the entirety of the Power Spectrum--or mayby two-to-three points in real use.

The AvK delta is a much bigger influence simply due to the difference between the number of Ks and the number of HR. A guy who strikes out 70 or so more times than is expected (like Ruth probably will) loses maybe 25-35 hits...or about 45-65 points of batting average on 550 AB.

[Spieler]

You can work out BABIP from the ratings, but it is a PITA. Don't know if I have it exactly right, but a guy like Nap Lajoie has a BABIP of around .400 in the game, Babe Ruth something like .285-.295, depending on the card.

I think it is pretty easy to suss out that a high number of K's reduces the balls in play. Those guys with low BABIP will suffer, while a guy like 99 Ty Cobb can strike out 200+ times and still hit .300.

And I reckon when the engine checks for a HR, a fail is an out, and not a ball in play. May explain why the power hitters are seemingly getting nerfed due to facing high MOV pitchers in PT all the time, at least at the higher levels.

[Syd Thrift]

Nah, I just think that the devs looked at Ruth and Bonds and gave them low-ish BABIPs in spite of their actual numbers. I’m pretty sure that the three true outcomes are all determined at once, then, if you didn’t get one, the ball is in play with the hit chance determined by BABIP and the defensive ability of the player in the hit location. One way that this was shown to me was the fact that a low Avoid Ks rating has no impact on how many HRs a player hits.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Ok. Yes. If AVK is equal, in an environment where pitcher Movement is very high, I can see that every low Power guys would not get hurt as much as very high Power guys. A guy who would normally be expected to hit 5 HR a year in a "normal" environment might hit only 2 per year (therefore losing 3 hits), where as a guy who would normally be expected to hit 45 might hit only 38, hence lose 7 hits (a difference of four hits between the two...or a difference of seven points of average on 550 AB). The BABIP rating would replace a few of those--let's say two. So the gap due to difference is maybe four points of batting average across the entirety of the Power Spectrum--or mayby two-to-three points in real use.

The AvK delta is a much bigger influence simply due to the difference between the number of Ks and the number of HR. A guy who strikes out 70 or so more times than is expected (like Ruth probably will) loses maybe 25-35 hits...or about 45-65 points of batting average on 550 AB.

I think it’s also the case that there will be a bigger variance in AvKs than Power because the former is only included in overall ratings secondarily while the latter is sort of double counted, and in turn at the very least the first filtering the vast majority of players at the highest leagues do is by the overall rating.

[Spieler]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

One way that this was shown to me was the fact that a low Avoid Ks rating has no impact on how many HRs a player hits.

Exactly this would lead me to believe that they are determined separately. HB->BB->K->HR->BIP. Maybe I am missing something though.

[Spieler]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I think it’s also the case that there will be a bigger variance in AvKs than Power because the former is only included in overall ratings secondarily while the latter is sort of double counted, and in turn at the very least the first filtering the vast majority of players at the highest leagues do is by the overall rating.

I still think that Stuff being allowed to go > 128 this year plays a role, but haven't sat down and tried to figure it out (yet). Same with Power > 128 this year, throws things off a bit, too.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I think it’s also the case that there will be a bigger variance in AvKs than Power because the former is only included in overall ratings secondarily while the latter is sort of double counted, and in turn at the very least the first filtering the vast majority of players at the highest leagues do is by the overall rating.

Yeah, I don't know anything about overall ratings and its filtering, so I'm just talking about the granular level of how the game engine will warp results based on rating imbalances in individual pitcher vs. hitter match ups. 20% more Ks than the engine expects will influence batting average a lot more than 20% more HR than expected.

[Spieler]

Originally Posted by Spieler

I still think that Stuff being allowed to go > 128 this year plays a role, but haven't sat down and tried to figure it out (yet). Same with Power > 128 this year, throws things off a bit, too.

So following up on this, it's only a theory. But let's just say that you bump Stuff from max 128 to 256. And Stuff goes up against AvK. Say at first glance as a proggy, you can't compare apples to oranges. So, in a hurry, you oversimplify and double AvK. So the guys with 90 AvK become 180. There aren't many (if any) pitchers with Stuff > 150. Put plenty with Stuff > 100 (esp as RP). So those guys with 90 AvK become gods, the guys with 50 AvK.. well 200K candidates.

The reverse: do the same with Power. Double the MOV. In Diamond, the majority have MOV => 90. So 180. Who has 180 POW?

Like I say, just food for thought. Nothing worked out, only assumptions

[Syd Thrift]

I would be very surprised if the internal ratings have more variance this year compared to last. They may be displaying ratings up to 250 now but the game engine has been 1-250 for a long, long time, the “base” game is just pulling the ratings the game generates from different seasons, and I sincerely doubt that the dev team has put in much of any work to make PT play differently than the real game.

[Spieler]

You may be right. But it goes both ways. A guy like Kimbrel doesn't have an internal rating > 250, or ? In the end, twelve of one, dozen of another

[Syd Thrift]

Again, I would be massively surprised if anyone’s ratings in PT went over 250 for the simple reason that nobody in the real game has ratings that high.

To the 3TO thing, I’m pretty sure that walks, HRs, and Ks don’t have any effect on each other. That leads me to believe that they’re all figured out at once (I would add that ideally walks and Ks should be figured out first; failure to make contact should absolutely be a thing that prevents players from hitting HRs) (on the other hand if you do it that way, it makes the initial ratings calculations, especially for players like Reggie Jackson and Rob Deer, an extra step harder to figure out).

[Spieler]

Just my observations from the player editor (and I don't claim to have it all figured out): BB (and HBP I assume) are figured out before the rest. The other ratings are based on AB, which means BB are removed from the equation. BB/Eye are on an island, the rest is based on AB not PA

[Syd Thrift]

The editor comes up with a decent approximation of the stats in a modern environment based on the ratings (and vice versa). I’m not sure that I’d use that as a sign that the game engine figures out walks/HP before Ks and HRs, however.

[Spieler]

I spent a bit of time in the editor, you can get a good feel for how the engine works.

[Spieler]

And while we are at it, we can bring up total league stats again. I know I brought it up my self myself one time, and yes, I oversimplified maybe a bit (too lazy to search/necro that thread). So, just to throw some more food for thought on the table:

- has anyone ever wondered why there are still 'Preseason Projections' in PT? Even if they only 'live' for a half hour?

- how about those new upgrades you add in July or maybe August? Hit/Pitch gangbusters, then the following full season, come back 'down to earth'?

[SF Giants]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Ok. Yes. If AVK is equal, in an environment where pitcher Movement is very high, I can see that every low Power guys would not get hurt as much as very high Power guys. A guy who would normally be expected to hit 5 HR a year in a "normal" environment might hit only 2 per year (therefore losing 3 hits), where as a guy who would normally be expected to hit 45 might hit only 38, hence lose 7 hits (a difference of four hits between the two...or a difference of seven points of average on 550 AB). The BABIP rating would replace a few of those--let's say two. So the gap due to difference is maybe four points of batting average across the entirety of the Power Spectrum--or mayby two-to-three points in real use.

The AvK delta is a much bigger influence simply due to the difference between the number of Ks and the number of HR. A guy who strikes out 70 or so more times than is expected (like Ruth probably will) loses maybe 25-35 hits...or about 45-65 points of batting average on 550 AB.

This one explains everything, thanks RonCo.

[Sipimi]

Originally Posted by Spieler

And while we are at it, we can bring up total league stats again. I know I brought it up my self myself one time, and yes, I oversimplified maybe a bit (too lazy to search/necro that thread). So, just to throw some more food for thought on the table:

- has anyone ever wondered why there are still 'Preseason Projections' in PT? Even if they only 'live' for a half hour?

- how about those new upgrades you add in July or maybe August? Hit/Pitch gangbusters, then the following full season, come back 'down to earth'?

FYI the preseason projections have been removed from PT some weeks ago, devs said they weren't serving any purpose.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Again, I would be massively surprised if anyone’s ratings in PT went over 250 for the simple reason that nobody in the real game has ratings that high.

The internal ratings do go over 250 in PT.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

The internal ratings do go over 250 in PT.

That's interesting.