More Important? Eye or Avoid Ks?

[Jeff1787]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Avoid Ks is already baked into the Contact rating so if a guy has decent enough Contact, Eye by a mile.

I was just going by what you posted, that's all. Most of us can't look at a guy's ratings and extract BABIP. At least I can't.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

I was just going by what you posted, that's all. Most of us can't look at a guy's ratings and extract BABIP. At least I can't.

Contact is batting average
Avoid K is the inverse of strike outs

There's a high correlation between the two; if a player K's a lot it's hard to have a high batting average.

Because of this correlation, when Contact and Avoid K are similar, BABIP is average.

But, any player who has a high contact and, relatively, low Avoid K they must have a high BABIP to compensate

Imagine players with 600 at bats, 0 walks, 0 home runs

Making up numbers, say that a 50 contact is a .275 batting average
A .275 batting average with 600 at bats is (.275×600) 165 hits

A player with 50 K's would have 550 balls in play
A player with 165 hits on 550 balls in play would have a (165/550) .300 BABIP

A player with 100 K's would have 500 balls in play
A player with 165 hits on 500 balls in play would have a (165/500) .330 BABIP

[Jeff1787]

A guy with 100 walks and 0 K's would also be at .330 BABIP

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

A guy with 100 walks and 0 K's would also be at .330 BABIP

Not sure what point you're trying to make

But a player with 600 PA, 100 BB, 0 K's, 0 HR and a .330 BABIP
Would have 165 hits
And a .330 batting average, thus a much higher contact rating and Avoid K rating. As I said earlier, contact rating and Avoid K rating are positively correlated. That's why as avoid K increases it's easier to have a high batting average without an extreme BABIP.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

I was just going by what you posted, that's all. Most of us can't look at a guy's ratings and extract BABIP. At least I can't.

Yes, and your big example was one of the best BABIPs since World War II. Your ignorance does not make that not a fact.

[Jeff1787]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Yes, and your big example was one of the best BABIPs since World War II. Your ignorance does not make that not a fact.

OK, so I'm ignorant. You happy now.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

OK, so I'm ignorant. You happy now.

I'd have been even more happy if you'd just said "okay, my bad" instead of continuing to go at this like you weren't wrong about it.

[Jeff1787]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I'd have been even more happy if you'd just said "okay, my bad" instead of continuing to go at this like you weren't wrong about it.

I just want an explanation as to why EYE is so much more important then Avoid K's. I am not disagreeing but if you have already explained it then maybe I just don't get it. If that is the case then "my bad."

[ubernoob]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

I just want an explanation as to why EYE is so much more important then Avoid K's. I am not disagreeing but if you have already explained it then maybe I just don't get it. If that is the case then "my bad."

He did already explain it. Multiple times, by different people.



Think of it this way: With that Ichiro, you picked an extreme outlier. That's why you are thinking avoid K's is that good. In Ichiro's case, it's very good. There are very few cards that have that same skillset.


It's math, that's it. Contact = BABIP + Power + Avoid K's in whatever measure.


I'll take a player that I have on my roster.


Contact = 79. Power = 91. Avoid K's = 91.

79 = (BABIP) + 91 + 91



Now I don't know the formula off the top of my head or if there is one even known - but that's not important since we are generalizing at a glance... but even still knowing that that card won't strike out a lot and will hit a decent amount of home runs. That's baked into the contact rating already. So 2 of the 3 parts are high. And the contact is lower. I now know this card won't have a great BABIP, alongside knowing it will not strike out and will hit some home runs. Also the eye is 54, so it won't draw many walks either.


If you're curious how that card did last season in Iron League, it hit .279/.335/.461 (OPS+ 113).


627 AB, 175 H, 43 2B, 7 3B, 19 HR, 44 walks and 53 Ks. BABIP was .279.

I'll edit this part in: Here is why eye is viewed as more important.

If his avoid K's went up higher (say.... 10 points to 101) his contact would slightly go up (I don't know if it'd be 1 point, 2 points) but his BABIP would still be in that .280-.285 range.

If his Eye went up 10 points, that has a much higher impact on his overall card in the number of walks he would draw (and times he would get on base.)

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by ubernoob

It's math, that's it. Contact = BABIP + Power + Avoid K's in whatever measure.


I'll take a player that I have on my roster.


Contact = 79. Power = 91. Avoid K's = 91.

79 = (BABIP) + 91 + 91



Now I don't know the formula off the top of my head or if there is one even known - but that's not important since we are generalizing at a glance...

I would love to have a formula to calculate BABIP from the three ratings.