erratic team performance

[2tango2]

The Dawgs rebounded from a horrendous mid summer stretch to take the Division title. Then proceeded to get trounced in 3 straight by a team comprised of nothing but Seattle Mariners. Who went on to slaughter everyone else in their path including the team from the NC which won something like 120 plus games and had Gold/Diamond at every position.

What has me perplexed is my relief core. Setup and closer all have stuff in high 90's and control and movement 70 and 80's They get torched regularly and I see other teams closing out games with ease using bronze and iron cards.......I will say that randomness is a little odd....makes you really not want to invest in a big PP closer when a bronze guy will do the same thing for you

[adion]

Originally Posted by JudP

I find the same thing. It is frustrating to spend time building a team that towers over a competitor and see that team lose in a totally nonsensical fashion. Don't get me wrong... I do believe good teams sometimes lose to bad ones, but a pitcher with a losing record, an ERA over 5, and a low value number does not throw a shutout against a powerhouse lineup while his teamates score runs off a pitcher who has had a great season and has a much higher value number. If so.... what's the point of buying anyone good? If you've suffered through the losing seasons to build up your team by buying better players, getting rid of players that have not performed, and eventually getting to a place where your lineup is full of players that rank from 1st to 6th at their positions, they should not get creamed by beat still have have a number of players ranking in the 20's and pitchers with low value numbers. If so then you are wasting your time upgrading. I find this game to be very nonsensical and frustrating at times.

I notice also notice a common occurrence that when I team plays well and makes the playoffs with all the players have good stats for that season the next season those some players stats go way down. Maybe not all of them but at least 90% of don't perform well. It just looks weird.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by adion

I notice also notice a common occurrence that when I team plays well and makes the playoffs with all the players have good stats for that season the next season those some players stats go way down. Maybe not all of them but at least 90% of don't perform well. It just looks weird.

Yes. That’s a phenomenon called “regression to the mean”.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by bailey

The variance in OOTP is not variance like happens in real baseball. At the end of the season, the league wide statistics MUST approximate the 2010 baseball season. So, if every team in a league conspired to use pitchers in the field and batters as pitchers, the league wide stats would like the same as leagues that play normally. So that makes me wonder if results are not pre-determined, then back-filled into a box score that looks "reasonable". I wonder this also because of my experience with Don Newcombe in iron league tournaments. I formerly used him as DH, and RP. When he comes in the game as a RP, the AI had the foresight to use someone else as DH for that game. How can the AI know in advance that Don Newcombe would be needed to be a RP late in that game?

Was the rest/majority of your bullpen tired for that game? If so, AI probably realized Newcombe would be needed out of the pen so used someone else at DH (either your backup, or whoever it figured would best fit if you didn't set a backup)?

[Lemandria]

Miracle Mets. '51 Dodgers. Cubs [frequent] September Swoons. Rivera rocked in the WS.

Normal curves have tails on both sides.

Observational bias means you note and remember the epic fails, but not the overperformances.

[LeiterFanatic]

I hear you all its just weird seeing Steve Carlton, Craig Kimbrel and Tom Candiotti all with ERAs over 7 3/4 way through the year. My guys seem the same as my competition in terms of ratings.

[X3NEIZE]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I have no idea what you’re talking about. PT runs on the OOTP engine and if you don’t understand how it works I recommend playing it.

As for Don Newcombe, it’s really not that hard. If he rests as a DH, he’s still available as a pitcher. The AI is free to use him any time you rest him (and I don’t think playing DH even builds up pitching fatigue so why wouldn’t he be used?). The AI isn’t “pre-determining” anything. Again, I strongly recommend playing the actual game.

You obviously don't understand how the engine works either...
There's most definitely something going on even more evident than OOTP20... the fluctuation in performance between same hitters is nonsensical...there's more going on under the hood in the engine you say 'you understand'. Bailey is not *all* that wrong.

[2tango2]

Had typed a whole paragraph about my observations on erratic play but deleted it because who actually cares what I think lol

Realized whatever is happening to my team is happening to everyone else as well.

[goreds05]

I’ve noticed the same weird things. My pitching staff went from best to average in a gold league in one year and I upgraded one of the pitchers. I upgraded the hitting and I went from middle of the pack to last. The changes are beyond what I would call statistically normal. I’d call it an outlier but it happens way too often, particularly after a good season. Then I know I’m in for a bad one.


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[Drivehud.com]

Originally Posted by goreds05

I’ve noticed the same weird things. My pitching staff went from best to average in a gold league in one year and I upgraded one of the pitchers. I upgraded the hitting and I went from middle of the pack to last. The changes are beyond what I would call statistically normal. I’d call it an outlier but it happens way too often, particularly after a good season. Then I know I’m in for a bad one.


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Agree. The calculations being used to set the peak mean for players can't be correct. There needs to be tighter low and high means to be more realistic. Right now, we're all just gambling basically because the variance is way too wide.

This is all fixable, but the calculations needed are quite complex to do.

[goreds05]

Yeah, well said, completely


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