"Times through the order" penalty for pitchers?

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Idk why we are still talking about the RP bonus as if it relates to time through the order. If it does, then it's inaccurate. Rp's get the bonus because they are trying to throw fire for an inning.

Think you got your answer in the post before. It's in the game.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Idk why we are still talking about the RP bonus as if it relates to time through the order. If it does, then it's inaccurate. Rp's get the bonus because they are trying to throw fire for an inning.

Yea, these are two different things. Relievers get a bonus because they are focused on throwing shorter outings (and using only their best pitches) AND there is a pitcher penalty/hitter bonus as a pitcher gets through the order multiple times.

Being a starting pitcher is hard.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Always enjoy seeing people discuss what they think may or may be involved in the game.

Not always sure what I'm allowed/supposed to say, but I'll just put it out there that wherever possible, we try to be as accurate to real life as we can. If we've seen research on a subject, and we can add it to the game, it will be in the game. And I've definitely read up enough on the times through the order penalty to see that it's a real thing

Allow me to say you guys do a great job, too. In nutshell, in my experience the ace pitchers can face orders five or six times and they still won't hit him. Those are the guys who throw the three hit complete game shut outs on a regular basis. The lesser pitchers are usually getting their arm iced or taking a shower in the eighth inning on a regular basis.

[chazzycat]

Awesome stuff, thanks everyone. This game really is on another level. I'm continually impressed

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Idk why we are still talking about the RP bonus as if it relates to time through the order. If it does, then it's inaccurate. Rp's get the bonus because they are trying to throw fire for an inning.

Unless the game has changed since last I was testing, both effects are modeled. How well or how "accurately" are fun questions to think about.

[Mancandy]

Originally Posted by RchW

I can't think of anything less enjoyable than "knowing". YMMV.

I can't think of a single reason why you wouldn't want to know if the game accurately reflects real life. YMMV.

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Always enjoy seeing people discuss what they think may or may be involved in the game.

Not always sure what I'm allowed/supposed to say, but I'll just put it out there that wherever possible, we try to be as accurate to real life as we can. If we've seen research on a subject, and we can add it to the game, it will be in the game. And I've definitely read up enough on the times through the order penalty to see that it's a real thing

Excellent. I'm glad you're in charge of the game and not these other clowns that are so eager to discuss something they clearly don't understand.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Mancandy

I can't think of a single reason why you wouldn't want to know if the game accurately reflects real life. YMMV.

Knowing that the game reflects real life isn't the issue. The issue is the poster wants to know the exact mathematical formula the game uses so he can make decisions based on that.

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Definitely agree with you, it's complex for sure. Still it would be nice to know how the game calculates things in order to make the most informed decision possible.

Example: if my 5th starter has an overall "50" rating and the game employs a "minus 10 percent effectiveness for each time through the order" penalty, then the third time through the order, they are a 40 rated pitcher. So if I have a reliever rated 45, it would be good move to pull the SP at that point. But, if the game does not employ a built-in penalty, then I would be better off leaving in the SP until he reaches "tired" status.

So what manager IRL knows the exact penalty of leaving in a pitcher? The game strives to simulate real life not to be a mathematical problem to be solved. Of course that is just MHO.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Mancandy

I can't think of a single reason why you wouldn't want to know if the game accurately reflects real life. YMMV.

That's not what I said. Oops I see Sweed beat me to it.

Originally Posted by Mancandy

Excellent. I'm glad you're in charge of the game and not these other clowns that are so eager to discuss something they clearly don't understand.

Why the hostility? Did my post offend you?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Sweed

So what manager IRL knows the exact penalty of leaving in a pitcher? The game strives to simulate real life not to be a mathematical problem to be solved. Of course that is just MHO.

The TB Rays who are perceived to use that data in decision making more than most, certainly understand that circumstances may dictate different choices.

Kevin Cash, Rays: “I pulled them quicker than anybody and probably took a lot of heat for it. Coming into the season, we felt that was the best chance for us to win. Looking back, when it works it works, and everybody is happy. When it doesn’t work, there are people who want to ask questions, which we understand.

“Times through the order, we value that — not to the extent of maybe what is brought up, but we do value it. We also value the eye test and how our pitchers are doing in that given start. We let Chris Archer stay out there plenty of times late in ballgames, and along with [Jake] Odorizzi, had we had Alex Cobb, had we had Drew Smyly, we probably would have been talking about different situations.“

Individual pitcher performance in MLB is volatile. It would be a huge error in judgement to not factor in the "eye" test for certain pitchers as Cash indicates above.

[ThePretender]

Yeah you can look up a half dozen fangraphs articles detailing league average splits for first/second/third time through the order. And you can compare it to individual pitchers. Pretty easy to come up with a the exact run differential for using a SP third time through the order vs a fresh RP if you wanted to.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Yeah you can look up a half dozen fangraphs articles detailing league average splits for first/second/third time through the order. And you can compare it to individual pitchers. Pretty easy to come up with a the exact run differential for using a SP third time through the order vs a fresh RP if you wanted to.

yes, but those are real human beings and you can certainly try to predict today's performance based on the players previous stats. You may be successful and you may not. When you're not you can blame a lot of things based on the human being you did or did not take out of the game. In OOTP you only have ratings that are trying to simulate a human being. Those ratings don't change because your brother was in a car accident last night and you are not concentrating as you normally do. Or you kid is getting in trouble in school but you're a 1,000 miles away on the road and your wife has to go in tomorrow to try to sort it out. Or the roadie that came up to your room last night didn't leave you much time to sleep In real life you would be trying to predict performance based on past performance. In OOTP you would be predicting performance based on an exact mathematical formula if it were spelled out as some are asking for.

OOTP is a game driven by ratings and when you put a 60 rated pitcher out there and are also told how the underlying engine treats a player on the third time around IE he becomes a 45 than that is what he becomes. So a 50 RP would always be the way to go. This is what chazzycat is asking for, the exact formula OOTP uses to he can make the best move. I don't care how much real life stats you study you won't come up with a formula that is always right.

I could be wrong but I really don't think OOTP is even that simplistic with it's ratings. It won't be as simple as a 60 becomes a 45, other things will factor in. Is the P on a roll tossing a shutout and only giving up 1 hit? Or have there been two errors behind him costing him unearned runs? I think any of us that play out our games have seen pitchers "flustered" and had a game get away from them. I've had pitchers throwing against me with ratings of 4-8-8 on the 1-20 scale pitch like the second coming of Kofax and shut me out. How did he do that for 9 innings when those ratings take a dive on the third time through?

I've also seen a no-hitter from one of my pitchers that had no business throwing one(a #4 SP at best). Luck of the dice rolls or did momentum carry an average pitcher to a once in a lifetime game? My answer? I don't care. The beauty of OOTP is it strives to convince me that I am seeing a real baseball game and it does a great job of that. If I know exactly how the engine works then what's the point of playing?

[Curve Ball Dave]

[QUOTE=Sweed;4205964 The beauty of OOTP is it strives to convince me that I am seeing a real baseball game and it does a great job of that. If I know exactly how the engine works then what's the point of playing?[/QUOTE]

^^^

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by Sweed

yes, but those are real human beings and you can certainly try to predict today's performance based on the players previous stats. You may be successful and you may not.

You're far more likely to be successful when you manage based on evidence. You can frame it as "you may be successful and you may not", but you're more likely to make the correct move if you use evidence to back up your decisions.

When you're not you can blame a lot of things based on the human being you did or did not take out of the game.

Or you can accept that in baseball even when you have the facts and make the correct decision, you can still lose. Doesn't change the fact that you should have the facts at your disposal.

OOTP is a game driven by ratings and when you put a 60 rated pitcher out there and are also told how the underlying engine treats a player on the third time around IE he becomes a 45 than that is what he becomes. So a 50 RP would always be the way to go. This is what chazzycat is asking for, the exact formula OOTP uses to he can make the best move. I don't care how much real life stats you study you won't come up with a formula that is always right.

Once again, you're missing the point. In real life we know exactly the impact of having a guy pitch the third time through the order and what the penalty is. Knowing that penalty here, or in real life, doesn't guarantee that the decision you make, whether it's backed up by stats, will mean that your starter or reliever won't perform as you expect.

In other words, even if I know my 60 SP will play like a 45 the third time through, I can leave him in (the wrong decision, mathematically) and have him allow 0 ER, and I can bring in my 75 RP, who again, mathematically, is the right move, and still blow the lead.

I could be wrong but I really don't think OOTP is even that simplistic with it's ratings. It won't be as simple as a 60 becomes a 45, other things will factor in. Is the P on a roll tossing a shutout and only giving up 1 hit?

Of course, the reason he's tossing a shut out to that point could be he hasn't gone through the third time, and this kind of thinking "Oh he's dominating so far keep him in" has cost many managers the ballgame.

Or have there been two errors behind him costing him unearned runs? I think any of us that play out our games have seen pitchers "flustered" and had a game get away from them. I've had pitchers throwing against me with ratings of 4-8-8 on the 1-20 scale pitch like the second coming of Kofax and shut me out. How did he do that for 9 innings when those ratings take a dive on the third time through?

Because, you clearly don't understand what you're arguing. The bold point makes that perfectly clear. You can have a guy succeed going the third time through. You can have a RP screw up when you remove a pitcher to avoid the third time through the order penalty. Knowing that there is a penalty, doesn't mean your next move will work out.

And it's like that for so many things. I can bring in my LOOGY to a platoon bat who sucks against LHP, and watch him hit a HR. I made the right move to have him face a LHP who he struggles against, but it just didn't work out.

The beauty of OOTP is it strives to convince me that I am seeing a real baseball game and it does a great job of that. If I know exactly how the engine works then what's the point of playing?

Because unlike in other games, knowing how the engine work doesn't guarantee you'll end up winning the game. I have a pretty good idea of how the engine works and I take advantage of that whenever I can, but I still lose games where I have an advantage, or lose games when I have a disadvantage.

The developers are changing the game so that we have similar information to real life managers. Well, guess what? Real life managers have access to third time through the order penalty stats, and can make their decisions based on that. It's not unreasonable to suggest people should have access to that same information, as managers across baseball have that information. But again, it doesn't guarantee they'll get the desired result simply because they know about this.

[jpeters1734]

When two people take the time to write essays about their beliefs,, they are not interested in changing their opinion

[RchW]

Managers have statistical output to inform. They don't have source code for RL baseball. OOTP should provide the stat output after the fact not the internal calcs used to produce them.

That's realism.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

The developers are changing the game so that we have similar information to real life managers. Well, guess what? Real life managers have access to third time through the order penalty stats, and can make their decisions based on that. It's not unreasonable to suggest people should have access to that same information, as managers across baseball have that information. But again, it doesn't guarantee they'll get the desired result simply because they know about this.

Originally Posted by RchW

Managers have statistical output to inform. They don't have source code for RL baseball. OOTP should provide the stat output after the fact not the internal calcs used to produce them.

That's realism.

And RchW sums it up quite nicely. By all means give us the statistics to use to make decisions. No doubt you will be more successful doing that, never said you wouldn't. Just don't ask for the exact formula that the OOTP engine uses. That is the point.

When you cut out lines like this it shows that you don't understand what is being argued.

In OOTP you would be predicting performance based on an exact mathematical formula if it were spelled out as some are asking for.

With all of the stats why would you possibly need or for that matter want to have the exact formulas?

[NoOne]

the only important quesiton here is whether it is worth the effort of mining an answer.

That is 100% personal in nature, even if it clearly and drastically improves the probability of winning over time.

any argument about it not being realistic or this or that is just opinion masquarading as falacious logical reasoning. they just don't like it for some reason.... not liking it is perfectly okay, but using falacious reasoning to rain on someone else's parade is just silly and borderline petty-like/bitter-like emotion.

mlb teams defintiely do these things... it's naive to think they don't. and when one does somethign that works well, others follow suit shotly (even the ******ed tigers have an analytics department now... 20 years late... really 100+ years late for any half-smart person, lol.)


there's no logical reasoning against it... just feelings and emotions of those that perceive it in some negative way. right and wrong? LoL a vidoe game and the MLB care not for "right and wrong." That's what the rules are for!

this is competition and you are allowed to all that is possible within the rules of the game... limiting that is a personal decision, not logic, and that choice will result in less wins over time, empirically. whether or not that is consequential is also part of the decisiosn to do it or not.

if my competition wants mystique over knowledge, i am okay with that too... nothing wrong with people doing things in a worse way when i am competing agsainst them... confidence booster, really

Square peg go through Round hole! uggga-booga <smash smash>

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by RchW

OOTP should provide the stat output after the fact not the internal calcs used to produce them.

Originally Posted by Sweed

Just don't ask for the exact formula that the OOTP engine uses.

Originally Posted by Sweed

With all of the stats why would you possibly need or for that matter want to have the exact formulas?

Just to clarify...I am not really interested in the game's exact formulas. I was just curious whether this phenomenon was included in the model, period. I had only created an example scenario because the first few responses didn't seem to understand my question, and so I thought an example might get the discussion back on track.

Now that I know it is included, I might pull my pitchers a bit earlier sometimes. But I'm definitely not playing video games with a calculator in hand for every pitching change...

[OldFatGuy]

The problem with the TTOP is that it can't be ALL due to times through the order.

The numbers show some set amount of increase to the average OPS of each batter the third and fourth times through the order (I can't remember the exact number but for grins let's say the number is .250 the fourth time through the order).

Now what we don't know is how much of that .250 is due to the "advantage" that hitters gain by seeing the same pitcher multiple times in the same day and how much of that .250 is due to pitcher fatigue. If you model a game that has a .250 increase in the average OPS the fourth time through order and you've already modelled some sort of pitching rating drop due to fatigue, then you've overdone it.

I don't know how much of the "advantage" is TTOP and how much is fatigue, but if I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably more of a fatigue issue than a TTOP issue, or they're both about the same. But we don't know. We can't separate out the two with the current data available.

[ThePretender]

Pretty easy to separate what is fatigue and what is TTO penalty. Fatigue would result in pitches being less effective and having less movement, possibly less velocity, and control not being as sharp. That's not the case.