"Times through the order" penalty for pitchers?

[chazzycat]

Does anyone know if OOTP builds this into the simulation? I am referring to the phenomenon detailed here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22156

I'm thinking I should be pulling my 4th/5th starters a bit earlier...

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Does anyone know if OOTP builds this into the simulation?

Yes it does

[saturn2187]

Actually I'm fairly sure the answer is they DO NOT factor this into the game.


Instead, pitchers used in relief receive a boost to their Stuff rating to account for the fact that they're seen fewer times and can put their best pitches up there.

[chazzycat]

Ok so after 2 replies there seems to be some confusion...does anyone know definitively?

If pitcher fatigue is just based on pitch count, and effectiveness doesn't change until "tired" status is achieved, then we should pretty much always keep SP in as long as possible. But if there is a "time through order penalty" then we should be removing our poorer starters even before they get to "tired". Relief pitchers having a slightly higher stuff rating is true, but doesn't factor into that calculation, so I'm still at a loss on the ideal strategy.

[saturn2187]

Did you read the manual?
http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/...tching_ratings


Relief pitchers receive a small bonus to stuff, to reflect the fact that batters get fewer looks at their pitches and have less of a chance to adjust to them. OOTP displays that bonus in the form of increased Stuff ratings. This bonus is heavily tied into the strength of a reliever's top two pitches, since relievers have much less incentive to mix in their weaker offerings. This means that a pitcher with a strong fastball, a strong slider, and a weak changeup might make for an average starting pitcher but a great reliever. You get to decide how he provides the most useful fit for your team. You can see the change in a pitcher's Stuff rating if you change the player's position from SP to MR and back.

[slugger922cubs]

My guess as is with much of the under the hood mechanics of OOTP no one really knows except Markus and Co. Reason being that if they reveal too much people exploit it and it becomes a game about exploiting the weakness of the AI than a baseball management simulator which it is intended to be. People will have confirmation bias for both sides. Which is great,

[slugger922cubs]

Also as Saturn said MR get a stuff bonus so once your pitcher fatigues switching to a MR is often a good move. Although it is a slightly roundabout way of achieving the same results it probably works pretty similar to irl.

[Reed]

The manual talks about stamina and pitch count. Doesn't say anything about times through the order so that should answer your question unless Markus put something hidden in the game engine (which I doubt).

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by saturn2187

Did you read the manual?
http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/...tching_ratings


Relief pitchers receive a small bonus to stuff, to reflect the fact that batters get fewer looks at their pitches and have less of a chance to adjust to them. OOTP displays that bonus in the form of increased Stuff ratings. This bonus is heavily tied into the strength of a reliever's top two pitches, since relievers have much less incentive to mix in their weaker offerings. This means that a pitcher with a strong fastball, a strong slider, and a weak changeup might make for an average starting pitcher but a great reliever. You get to decide how he provides the most useful fit for your team. You can see the change in a pitcher's Stuff rating if you change the player's position from SP to MR and back.

thank you...I did read that part of the manual and I understood your comment the first time around. But it seems to be answering a different question from the one I posed. Yeah relievers get a bump. But how does that help me answer this question: should I wait for my starter to get "tired" or make the decision based on number of times through the order?

[slugger922cubs]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

should I wait for my starter to get "tired" or make the decision based on number of times through the order?

I extremely doubt MLB managers are making decisions to pull pitchers because suddenly they're at batter 19+. It's one consideration out of many. Often fatigue, at least in my opinion, is the deciding factor still.Third time through the order the pitcher's velocity is typically dropping and his stuff is slightly less effective for many reasons. Batter 19 is not some magical point where the wheels fall off if graphed by batter number I guarantee its a slow trend and not a cliff. Pulling your starter for a reliever gains you the stuff bonus because the game knows batters are not likely to see him multiple times and he can get away with a shorter arsenal of pitches. Still, though many times the starter could still be more effective than a MR. Many factors go into that decision theres no silver bullet. In fact its extremely hard to quantify the 3rd time through the order effect as much more than thats when guys get fatigued and are less effective. No way to quantify ts because the batter has had to PAs vs him.

[jpeters1734]

relievers shouldn't get the bonus because of "less looks". they get the bonus because they are tuned to go 1-2 innings instead of 6-8 so they throw harder.

The question shouldn't be if there's a penalty for the pitcher, but rather a bonus for the batter if he's seen the pitcher 4 times in a game. Which I don't believe there is until someone provides a lot of data and is able to quantify what that bonus should be

[Shadow4u]

I think a random factor is predetermined before the game, perhaps in the schedule, that some days are going to be tough for certain pitchers.


This could occur at the outset of the game or perhaps certain innings -


For me- the key is recognizing this so I can make changes. In this sense, when I see pitchers giving up hard hit balls, even if caught, or going deep into the count on a regular basis - I think about taking them out - even if they have not allowed any runs yet.


If you don't play your games out, try changing your strategy settings to pull pitchers as quick as possible. This will minimize the damage when it does come

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by slugger922cubs

I extremely doubt MLB managers are making decisions to pull pitchers because suddenly they're at batter 19+. It's one consideration out of many. Often fatigue, at least in my opinion, is the deciding factor still.Third time through the order the pitcher's velocity is typically dropping and his stuff is slightly less effective for many reasons. Batter 19 is not some magical point where the wheels fall off if graphed by batter number I guarantee its a slow trend and not a cliff. Pulling your starter for a reliever gains you the stuff bonus because the game knows batters are not likely to see him multiple times and he can get away with a shorter arsenal of pitches. Still, though many times the starter could still be more effective than a MR. Many factors go into that decision theres no silver bullet. In fact its extremely hard to quantify the 3rd time through the order effect as much more than thats when guys get fatigued and are less effective. No way to quantify ts because the batter has had to PAs vs him.

Definitely agree with you, it's complex for sure. Still it would be nice to know how the game calculates things in order to make the most informed decision possible.

Example: if my 5th starter has an overall "50" rating and the game employs a "minus 10 percent effectiveness for each time through the order" penalty, then the third time through the order, they are a 40 rated pitcher. So if I have a reliever rated 45, it would be good move to pull the SP at that point. But, if the game does not employ a built-in penalty, then I would be better off leaving in the SP until he reaches "tired" status.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Definitely agree with you, it's complex for sure. Still it would be nice to know how the game calculates things in order to make the most informed decision possible.

I can't think of anything less enjoyable than "knowing". YMMV.

[pstrickert]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

relievers shouldn't get the bonus because of "less looks". they get the bonus because they are tuned to go 1-2 innings instead of 6-8 so they throw harder.

The question shouldn't be if there's a penalty for the pitcher, but rather a bonus for the batter if he's seen the pitcher 4 times in a game. Which I don't believe there is until someone provides a lot of data and is able to quantify what that bonus should be

I'll bet the data exists somewhere.

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by slugger922cubs

I extremely doubt MLB managers are making decisions to pull pitchers because suddenly they're at batter 19+.

Several managers have been interviewed and are aware of the penalty and are doing this, actually.

It's one consideration out of many. Often fatigue, at least in my opinion, is the deciding factor still.Third time through the order the pitcher's velocity is typically dropping and his stuff is slightly less effective for many reasons.

This isn't always the case though. Pitchers can hold their velocity, but once a hitter has seen a pitcher's pitches, and their pitch sequence, they're much easier to hit.

Batter 19 is not some magical point where the wheels fall off if graphed by batter number I guarantee its a slow trend and not a cliff. Pulling your starter for a reliever gains you the stuff bonus because the game knows batters are not likely to see him multiple times and he can get away with a shorter arsenal of pitches. Still, though many times the starter could still be more effective than a MR.

Actually, it's not true, and it's been proven statistically that a fresh reliever is more likely to have a lower OPS/wRC+ against than a SP will the third time through the order. There will be exceptions, but for 90-95% of starters, a fresh reliever is more likely to avoid being hit hard than a SP will the third time through the order.

Many factors go into that decision theres no silver bullet. In fact its extremely hard to quantify the 3rd time through the order effect as much more than thats when guys get fatigued and are less effective. No way to quantify ts because the batter has had to PAs vs him.

This is your opinion, but the facts actually support the fact that a batter who has more evidence against a specific pitcher will likely be more successful.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

This isn't always the case though. Pitchers can hold their velocity, but once a hitter has seen a pitcher's pitches, and their pitch sequence, they're much easier to hit.

This is correct. In fact, when a pitcher is really feeling it he can be throwing harder in the 9th inning than he was in the 1st (I can personally attest that it's a great feeling).

Because the batter has seen the pitcher's stuff and sequences, the best pitchers keep a pitch in his back pocket. Ideally, he'll get through the lineup by throwing as few different types of pitches as he can. He won't show them everything. By the time he faces hitters the third or fourth time he'll start to throw the one they haven't seen yet. This keeps him unpredictable and tough to hit.

Mind you, this ability is reserved for the best of the best, the aces of the staff, the HOFers.

Most mere mortal pitchers don't have this ability.

[NoOne]

i'd agree with others that the manual may give a bonus to RP and reference this type of things a bit, but it does not exclude them from doing anythign how often a batter is faced...

that's not per pitcher (for the most part), that could be a uniform application in the equations used each time an AB is simulated.

although if i were a bettting man, i'd probably toss my money on the side i don't like... that it likely is NOT in the game as of now... and that if it were it would take some heavy lifting to re-balance things once that factor is added to the mess. totally worth it from my perspective... i think it's a major aspect to the game... especially when half the league is still ignoring it's weight (dogmatic thinking).... it's a real competitive advantage to be an early adopter of methods to combat this force.

the teams that adopted smarter methods of player evaluation in the face of incredulity certainly benefited from the rest of the league being veritably dumb. incredulity is not a logical argument against something! use real proof if you don't like the concepts layed out, lol. (general cry toward real MLB)

my tigers are some of the dumbest... slowest at adapting. it's rather painful to watch sometimes... even dumbrowski made some real bone-headed decisions.. i blame mike illitch meddling where he shouldn't though... his decisions are why teh team will be sc%wed for the next 5 years or more.

[Matt Arnold]

Always enjoy seeing people discuss what they think may or may be involved in the game.

Not always sure what I'm allowed/supposed to say, but I'll just put it out there that wherever possible, we try to be as accurate to real life as we can. If we've seen research on a subject, and we can add it to the game, it will be in the game. And I've definitely read up enough on the times through the order penalty to see that it's a real thing

[jpeters1734]

Idk why we are still talking about the RP bonus as if it relates to time through the order. If it does, then it's inaccurate. Rp's get the bonus because they are trying to throw fire for an inning.