Best offensive statistic?

RidingTimeless · 03-19-2016, 07:33 PM

I know WAR is the all inclusive stat, but I am looking for a DH in my fictional league, so I am not concerned with fielding. I've been using OPS+ since it is readily available on every player profile screen, but I am wondering if there is a better statistic for offensive production.

DawnBTVS · 03-19-2016, 07:36 PM

I'm a bit biased as I go for sluggers but for a DH I want somebody who can hit for power and draw some walks and I tend to go old school/simplistic.

Depending on the level, I may also look at splits to see if their home park greatly aided them (or better, hurt them as it could make them undervalued). I'd look at Doubles, HR, and Walks.

A guy who can smack 45 Doubles and 15 HRs is equally valuable to a 30/25 guy in my book.

jpeters1734 · 03-19-2016, 07:44 PM

Woba

actionjackson · 03-19-2016, 08:10 PM

wRC+, which is a more precise version of OPS+ that weights each offensive outcome with a run value.

wolverinebball11 · 03-19-2016, 08:11 PM

wRC+ is the way to go.

The Wolf · 03-19-2016, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

wRC+, which is a more precise version of OPS+ that weights each offensive outcome with a run value.

This is the correct answer.

Lockdog · 03-19-2016, 08:41 PM

wRC+ and wRAA are better metrics than OPS and OPS+. The former equates to runs produced as opposed to summing OBP and SLG, which aren't equivalent to each other.

actionjackson · 03-19-2016, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

This is the correct answer.

Well, I did forget to mention that wRC+ is park adjusted, so I'll take the time to do so now.

The Wolf · 03-19-2016, 10:25 PM

wRC and wRC+ | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

Gai1997 · 03-19-2016, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DawnBTVS

I'm a bit biased as I go for sluggers but for a DH I want somebody who can hit for power and draw some walks and I tend to go old school/simplistic.

Depending on the level, I may also look at splits to see if their home park greatly aided them (or better, hurt them as it could make them undervalued). I'd look at Doubles, HR, and Walks.

A guy who can smack 45 Doubles and 15 HRs is equally valuable to a 30/25 guy in my book.

30 HR/25 Doubles is significantly better than 15 HR/45 Doubles. A HR is the best outcome a batter can have each time he comes to the plate. Swapping a HR for a double or two is not better.

Lockdog · 03-19-2016, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gai1997

30 HR/25 Doubles is significantly better than 15 HR/45 Doubles. A HR is the best outcome a batter can have each time he comes to the plate. Swapping a HR for a double or two is not better.

Exactly. Two doubles are not equal to a home run, a triple is not worth three singles, etc.

fcabanski · 03-20-2016, 01:39 AM

oWAR only measures offense. I wonder why that isn't shown.

The Wolf · 03-20-2016, 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fcabanski

WAR only measures offense.

Uh, no.

What is WAR? | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

tcoots423 · 03-20-2016, 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Uh, no.

What is WAR? | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

Am I the only person who sees The Wolf posted about something and feels like they need to read it because of his ultimate wisdom?

Syd Thrift · 03-20-2016, 09:41 AM

As an old school purist, the only true answer is average and over.

DawnBTVS · 03-20-2016, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lockdog

Exactly. Two doubles are not equal to a home run, a triple is not worth three singles, etc.

You guys are correct, sorta but Linear Weights would say you're wrong on the 2 Double vs. 1 HR and 1 Triple vs. 3 Singles aspect.

Just taking Tom Tango's work from here: https://triplesalley.wordpress.com/2...inear-weights/

Player A: 45 Doubles and 15 Home Runs = 34.65 + 21.115 = 55.8
Player B: 30 Doubles and 25 Home Runs = 23.10 + 35.250 = 58.35

Player B is better but it's not a massive difference. Granted it would take a very extreme Doubles hitter (think Wade Boggs maybe) and a very average power hitter (think Rob Deer maybe) to make this correlation pay off.

But the OP mentioned the DH spot specifically and in the context of creating a team, I was just trying to point out that just targeting the player with the highest Power Rating is fine but also more costly salary wise usually.

This is all moot since others mentioned wRC+ anyway.

NoOne · 03-20-2016, 12:19 PM

the important thing with more sophisticated stats is to remember they are not absolutely definitive. i love what dawn wrote because too often people think of these questions as yes/no answers... it is a breakeven analysis. the answer is wholey dependent on the relevant variables to the situation. simply put, the hr/power guy isn't always the best answer for a spot in the order that will get at least a good share of rbi opportunities.

a war of 7 is not 100% always better than a war of 6.9. it could be a poorly weighted component of the war equation causing something to be off. war is no where near that accurate while in its current form.

this applies to more than just WAR. e.g. something like normalizing for parks is not a perfect science (if normalizing for parks is actually down to +/- a minimal % error, i will happily retract that statement). with the advent of the new stats tracking technology, the picture will get much clearer in the coming years - especially defensive metrics. once that new data levels off, we are going to have some cool stuff leaked from the MLB clubs as each 'best' practice comes to light and is begrudgeonly shared over time.

i don't think of any one stat as the 'best.' that's not how they are meant to be used. some provide better information than others. some provide more specific info as opposed to more general info. my favorite one(s) are the ones that give the best information relevant to the question at hand.

03-19-2016, 07:33 PM	#1
RidingTimeless Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 67	Best offensive statistic? I know WAR is the all inclusive stat, but I am looking for a DH in my fictional league, so I am not concerned with fielding. I've been using OPS+ since it is readily available on every player profile screen, but I am wondering if there is a better statistic for offensive production.

03-19-2016, 07:44 PM	#3
jpeters1734 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Juust a bit outside... Posts: 6,216	Woba __________________ "Cannonball Coming!" Go Bucs!! Founder and League Caretaker of the Professional Baseball Circuit, www.probaseballcircuit.com An Un-Official Guide to Minor League Management in OOTP 21 Ratings Scale Conversion Cross-Reference Cheat Sheet

03-20-2016, 01:39 AM	#12
fcabanski Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 170	oWAR only measures offense. I wonder why that isn't shown. Last edited by fcabanski; 03-20-2016 at 01:43 AM.

03-20-2016, 12:19 PM	#17
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	the important thing with more sophisticated stats is to remember they are not absolutely definitive. i love what dawn wrote because too often people think of these questions as yes/no answers... it is a breakeven analysis. the answer is wholey dependent on the relevant variables to the situation. simply put, the hr/power guy isn't always the best answer for a spot in the order that will get at least a good share of rbi opportunities. a war of 7 is not 100% always better than a war of 6.9. it could be a poorly weighted component of the war equation causing something to be off. war is no where near that accurate while in its current form. this applies to more than just WAR. e.g. something like normalizing for parks is not a perfect science (if normalizing for parks is actually down to +/- a minimal % error, i will happily retract that statement). with the advent of the new stats tracking technology, the picture will get much clearer in the coming years - especially defensive metrics. once that new data levels off, we are going to have some cool stuff leaked from the MLB clubs as each 'best' practice comes to light and is begrudgeonly shared over time. i don't think of any one stat as the 'best.' that's not how they are meant to be used. some provide better information than others. some provide more specific info as opposed to more general info. my favorite one(s) are the ones that give the best information relevant to the question at hand. Last edited by NoOne; 03-20-2016 at 12:32 PM.

03-19-2016, 07:36 PM	#2
DawnBTVS Major Leagues Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: USA Posts: 416	I'm a bit biased as I go for sluggers but for a DH I want somebody who can hit for power and draw some walks and I tend to go old school/simplistic. Depending on the level, I may also look at splits to see if their home park greatly aided them (or better, hurt them as it could make them undervalued). I'd look at Doubles, HR, and Walks. A guy who can smack 45 Doubles and 15 HRs is equally valuable to a 30/25 guy in my book.

03-19-2016, 08:10 PM	#4
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,165	wRC+, which is a more precise version of OPS+ that weights each offensive outcome with a run value.

03-19-2016, 08:11 PM	#5
wolverinebball11 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 39	wRC+ is the way to go.

03-19-2016, 08:41 PM	#7
Lockdog Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 263	wRC+ and wRAA are better metrics than OPS and OPS+. The former equates to runs produced as opposed to summing OBP and SLG, which aren't equivalent to each other.