Why do I (and the Mariners) suck?

bzumeta · 04-01-2015, 05:17 PM

So beyond the obvious lowbrow responses that title will invite, here is what I mean and would love feedback on:

I started a franchise with the 2015 Mariners (lifelong fan). As GM-Manager simulating about half the games and managing the rest, I am currently 31-53. This is after I have heard basically every pundit pick them to win the AL West and many to make the WS. This is obviously just speculation but aren't the ratings and simulations in this game also speculative, and based on the same scouting these pundits use? Nothing a GM can do will make up for every player he puts in the lineup producing worse than he ever has, so what causes players in this game to underproduce? Lineup placement? Manager strategy? Unhappiness with trades?

My pitching is strong (top 4 in every category), but like the recent M's my offense is now league worst despite what seemed to be a stacked roster going into May with a 17-12 record and feeling like the game may be too easy. I got to the point with OOTP 12 that I built dynasties with the M's (4out of six championships) and Phillies (3/4), so I thought I understood the game and could continue to apply a philosophy I have drawn from experience playing and studying real baseball: generally balancing sabermetrics with some speed (which never slumps) tactics to consistently get 4runs+ rather than getting the big variations in offense that overly valuing OBP/OPS produces (scoring 6+ runs is rarely necessary for good teams), never overpaying for a single star, building depth and platoon flexibility, and generally strong defense across the field). I've had an average number of injuries, and while to almost only to batters, but I've had (ratings wise) good backups as I always plan for many injuries for experience.

So, some of my theories/questions on why I suck:

- Does trading stars (Cano for Jose Abreu) drastically reduce team morale and production?
- Does my being an "inexperienced" manager explain virtually every hitter having a career low OPS?
- Does the game think it is impossible to hit in Safeco?

My main moves were made in order to improve the current roster while reducing payroll constraints going forward longterm and to build a deep group of high potential prospects at each position to replace aging players or to facilitate future trades. So I signed Hector Olivera for 4yrs at 8mil/yr(before roster update when he really signed with Dodgers) and picked up the games top-rated hitter in Jose Abreu for the elephantine contract (7yrs 24mil/per) of Robinson Cano, who is ratings-wise about equal to Olivera (obviously not yet proven in reality). This was my main move and in it I gave up a high potential single A prospect in addition to Cano, receiving 3 additional AA-AAA 4star guys as well. Olivera is producing about what I would hope Cano would (.800ops and 15steals, good D), and Abreu should make up the power difference (out of 20, Cano 12 vs Olivera 10, Abreu 17 vs Morrison's 10).

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 04-01-2015, 05:24 PM

Honestly it could be any number of things. The game simulates based off the ratings that it's provided sometimes teams overachieve and sometimes they drastically underachive. Your moves also act negatively and positively, but differently every sim so it's hard to say reason x is why you're doing poorly as opposed to reason y.

The game this year is also definitely harder than it was in previous years in terms of building dynasties, so that' s another factor (at least for me).

sandman2575 · 04-01-2015, 05:41 PM

It sounds like you've simply had a spate of very bad luck. You haven't been bitten by the catastrophic injuries bug it appears, so you must have a roster of seriously under-performing players. Not the first time in MLB history that has happened.

Looks like you're too deep in a hole to vie for a wildcard spot this season, although I'd be surprised if things didn't even out a bit (barring serious injuries), and that you could conceivably approach .500 by game 162, with some decent winning streaks in the second half of the season...

And of course, 'there's always next year'...

Syd Thrift · 04-01-2015, 05:56 PM

I've been asking myself that question for the last 38 years.

Raidergoo · 04-01-2015, 06:18 PM

Welcome to the boards bzumeta.

I think your guiding philosophy is sound. The way you've planned to handle injuries sounds wise. I will trust that your description of your backups is accurate. It is good to hear that you have top 4 pitching, though some of that is Safeco and some of that is running King Felix out every five days.

I think your problem is just plain bad luck. I think that many good managers and GM's have lost their jobs over the years for no good reason at all. They are thoughtful, prepared, and are executing their plan successfully. Unfortunately they run into a streak where they are playing .370 baseball over half a season when "everybody knows" they are a .555 ballclub. Someone must be accountable for that difference. Humans place that sort of accountability on the tribal elder instead of Murphy. The crowd demands a propitiatory sacrifice and so the leaders get fired.

What's your Pythagorean W-L Record?

Carraz · 04-01-2015, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bzumeta

As GM-Manager simulating about half the games and managing the rest, I am currently 31-53.

I went 84-78 in my first year with the Mariners. I traded away Bloomquist, Ackley, and Endy Chavez for... reasons that I don't really remember. Hopefully because they weren't doing anything worthwhile...

I don't think you're necessarily doing anything wrong, just that the sims aren't going your way this season.

Biggio509 · 04-01-2015, 07:01 PM

Well it is the Mariners.

Biggio509 · 04-01-2015, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bzumeta

- Does the game think it is impossible to hit in Safeco?

.

Safeco has been resized for 2015. The game has the new dimension of 600 ft down the lines and 30 foot walls. This was changed to allow a soccer field in which the Seattle Sounders can play on due to the implosion of their stadium after soccer hooligans caused a riot.

Yes it is 4/1.

Biggio509 · 04-01-2015, 07:11 PM

Seriously,

The ratings are based on past performance potentially is more on scouting than performance.

Several reasons why Seattle might be bad.
1. Maybe the pundits are out of left left field in their prediction. I have heard some say the Astros will compete for a wildcard this year. It is hard to say if your team is under or over performing because the season hasn't started.
2. Plain old back luck. All computer games are based on probabilities. Sometimes you get better performance than expected sometimes worse.
3. Although you start with real rosters, teams can make trades cut the wrong guys etc. So you can't expect say the opening day Angels or As to be the midseason Angels or A's. Predicitions are made on pre-season. Teams can shift players drastically by midseason.

If you look at any opening day roster you find at least some to a lot of guys are gone in the first month. The real Mariners will likely do this. Don't be afraid to trade or demote guys who just aren't performing. If you follow Seattle this becomes hard. Maybe you like the way player X plays and because he started last season you want to start him. A real GM moves the guys who aren't performing. You have to be the same way.

Yick · 04-01-2015, 07:39 PM

First off, both Texas teams will round out the bottom two of their division. Second, don't count out a comeback. My Jays we sub-500 until late July and then ended up winning a wild card spot.

megamanmatt · 04-01-2015, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biggio509

If you follow Seattle this becomes hard. Maybe you like the way player X plays and because he started last season you want to start him. A real GM moves the guys who aren't performing. You have to be the same way.

This is the primary reason I play in leagues with fictional players. People too often get hung up on the name without remembering to OOTP that player is just id#xxxxx

bzumeta · 04-01-2015, 09:29 PM

Thanks for the responses all. I guess this is a plus for realism, as this does feel like another M's season

My reason for thinking I may be "playing wrong" is how I am on pace for a 100 loss season with what seems to me and every analyst I've heard say is a 88+win team with a chance of mediocrity but too much pitching to really suck barring catastrophic injuries. And I agree about the harm of favoritism, but I did trade Robinson Cano for Jose Abreu, and other than holding with Zunino based on his defense I have generally traded for solid replacements (Justin Upton, a 13-13-13 guy) for underperforming left platoon fielders and an injury to Nelson Cruz. I thought Upton was almost unrealistically easy to get based on his ratings (maybe my scouting director Todd McNamara is bad, but his ratings are good. Who scouts the scouts?). Have the meaning of the ratings been adjusted much since '12? I generally thought of 13+ for power, contact etc, as a significant plus attribute relative to the average. I generally have a lineup where 12-13/20 this is the mean batter attribute number, but I may be overvaluing attribute scores over recent performance.

The Wolf · 04-01-2015, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamanmatt

This is the primary reason I play in leagues with fictional players. People too often get hung up on the name without remembering to OOTP that player is just id#xxxxx

Mike Trout is batting .128 in my 2015 MLB league (thank the gods I'm not playing the Angels). Meanwhile Lorenzo Cain is batting .302. And it's July.

Go figure.

NCBeachBum · 04-01-2015, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I've been asking myself that question for the last 38 years.

I opened this thread specifically to respond:

Blame Johnny Thrift.

olivertheorem · 04-01-2015, 11:01 PM

I want Lorenzo Cain to bat .302 in my game....traded Leonys Martin for him in my Rangers game and he's batting like .200.

jlking · 04-01-2015, 11:07 PM

Nelson Cruz seems to be the key. I have simmed about a dozen MLB season now and the Mariners end up just over .500 in most and often just below that. The one year they did do great, Cruz was a league leader in home runs and WAR. The game seems to hate Weeks and Happ. Happ should benefit with a large park like Safeco where his fly balls can stay in the park, but in my sims, he is gone by the All Star break.

If Zunino is hitting even around .220, move him up to the number five positions. I have had some luck with that. Actually I am doing pretty well with the Mariners as a manger. But the season long sims have not been up to the press we are hearing.

Biggio509 · 04-01-2015, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bzumeta

Thanks for the responses all. I guess this is a plus for realism, as this does feel like another M's season

My reason for thinking I may be "playing wrong" is how I am on pace for a 100 loss season with what seems to me and every analyst I've heard say is a 88+win team with a chance of mediocrity but too much pitching to really suck barring catastrophic injuries.

The other thing is teams with all pitching can go on some bad runs. Look at the 2004 and 2005 Astros. In 2005 the season was declared dead around midseason. The Houston Chronicle had an article with a tombstone saying RIP 20005 season around mid-season! I think Clemens was leading the league in no decisions and rarely gave up more than a run that year. They went to the world series that year. All defense or all offense teams tend to be a streakier than a more balanced team. You are a little more susceptible to probabilities. Especially if a lot of games are 1-1 to 0-0 going into the 7th with power house pitching and AAA offense. Whereas a power house no pitching team is also on edge unless you have a 5+ run lead. An all pitching and light hitting team is going to win a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 nothing games and lose some a number of games where the opponent only scores 2 or 3.

I think a more balanced team is less susceptible to probability than a team that when it goes done by 1 or is only up by 2 is in trouble. Any team that only has pitching and little offense or has hitting and little pitching is in for a bumpy ride but should compete at the end of the season if the pitching or hitting is very good to elite. They are going to have some long bad stretches though.

Biggio509 · 04-01-2015, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jlking

The game seems to hate Weeks and Happ. Happ should benefit with a large park like Safeco where his fly balls can stay in the park, but in my sims, he is gone by the All Star break.

Happ was an excellent prospect but has had a bit of a rocky career. I remember when the Astros were dismantling traded him and Oswalt to Philly he was a guy who looked like he do well but looked bad a little too much. I think the game "hates" Happ with a good reason. Despite being what was thought to be a good prosect he hasn't had a full season with an ERA under 4. He looked good for the Jays after they traded him for that 1B that never really worked out (Wallace?) but has looked pretty average most of his career. Happ is really shown him self to be a bottom of the rotation guy and not an ace as some hoped. Maybe the hope of him being an ace was just me since we traded Oswalt for him but there were other guys in that trade.

NCBeachBum · 04-01-2015, 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Happ was an excellent prospect but has had a bit of a rocky career. I remember when the Astros were dismantling traded him and Oswalt to Philly he was a guy who looked like he do well but looked bad a little too much. I think the game "hates" Happ with a good reason. Despite being what was thought to be a good prosect he hasn't had a full season with an ERA under 4. He looked good for the Jays after they traded him for that 1B that never really worked out (Wallace?) but has looked pretty average most of his career. Happ is really shown him self to be a bottom of the rotation guy and not an ace as some hoped. Maybe the hope of him being an ace was just me since we traded Oswalt for him but there were other guys in that trade.

'09: average #3
'10: halfway between avg #3 and avg #4 (1/2 season)
'11: average #5
'12: average #3
'13: halfway between avg #3 and avg #4 (1/2 season)
'14: average #4

I actually can't decide if he's a middle of the rotation starter or a bottom of the rotation starter, but that's okay, neither can he.

But for a contender, at least, he's a bottom of the rotation guy.

bzumeta · 04-02-2015, 01:26 PM

[QUOTE=jlking;3844398]Nelson Cruz seems to be the key. I have simmed about a dozen MLB season now and the Mariners end up just over .500 in most and often just below that. The one year they did do great, Cruz was a league leader in home runs and WAR.

I think that is a realistic lynchpin and hope the real Cruz will do well. In my sim Cruz has been hurt half the games so far, and despite trading a reliever for Upton (he was hitting poorly on a tanking Padres team in May) the offense fell off rom average to abysmal correlating to his absence, as Abreu and Olivera are down to hitting .260. My leader in avg is Seager at .271! I have seen M's teams this bad on offense, but don't think this year's lineup is deeper than just Cano and Cruz. Those past teams just sucked at hitting, Safeco is not as bad a place to hit (look at the 2000-2002 #s for Ichiro and Boone) as many seem to think. Beltre had nobody behind him and played hurt a lot while in Seattle, and Ibanez resurrected his career there. Oh well, better actually watch some real games rather than slog through a worst case scenario!

04-01-2015, 05:17 PM	#1
bzumeta Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: NW California Posts: 10	Why do I (and the Mariners) suck? So beyond the obvious lowbrow responses that title will invite, here is what I mean and would love feedback on: I started a franchise with the 2015 Mariners (lifelong fan). As GM-Manager simulating about half the games and managing the rest, I am currently 31-53. This is after I have heard basically every pundit pick them to win the AL West and many to make the WS. This is obviously just speculation but aren't the ratings and simulations in this game also speculative, and based on the same scouting these pundits use? Nothing a GM can do will make up for every player he puts in the lineup producing worse than he ever has, so what causes players in this game to underproduce? Lineup placement? Manager strategy? Unhappiness with trades? My pitching is strong (top 4 in every category), but like the recent M's my offense is now league worst despite what seemed to be a stacked roster going into May with a 17-12 record and feeling like the game may be too easy. I got to the point with OOTP 12 that I built dynasties with the M's (4out of six championships) and Phillies (3/4), so I thought I understood the game and could continue to apply a philosophy I have drawn from experience playing and studying real baseball: generally balancing sabermetrics with some speed (which never slumps) tactics to consistently get 4runs+ rather than getting the big variations in offense that overly valuing OBP/OPS produces (scoring 6+ runs is rarely necessary for good teams), never overpaying for a single star, building depth and platoon flexibility, and generally strong defense across the field). I've had an average number of injuries, and while to almost only to batters, but I've had (ratings wise) good backups as I always plan for many injuries for experience. So, some of my theories/questions on why I suck: - Does trading stars (Cano for Jose Abreu) drastically reduce team morale and production? - Does my being an "inexperienced" manager explain virtually every hitter having a career low OPS? - Does the game think it is impossible to hit in Safeco? My main moves were made in order to improve the current roster while reducing payroll constraints going forward longterm and to build a deep group of high potential prospects at each position to replace aging players or to facilitate future trades. So I signed Hector Olivera for 4yrs at 8mil/yr(before roster update when he really signed with Dodgers) and picked up the games top-rated hitter in Jose Abreu for the elephantine contract (7yrs 24mil/per) of Robinson Cano, who is ratings-wise about equal to Olivera (obviously not yet proven in reality). This was my main move and in it I gave up a high potential single A prospect in addition to Cano, receiving 3 additional AA-AAA 4star guys as well. Olivera is producing about what I would hope Cano would (.800ops and 15steals, good D), and Abreu should make up the power difference (out of 20, Cano 12 vs Olivera 10, Abreu 17 vs Morrison's 10).

04-01-2015, 05:24 PM	#2
DustinthePOWERHOUSE All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Boston Posts: 871	Honestly it could be any number of things. The game simulates based off the ratings that it's provided sometimes teams overachieve and sometimes they drastically underachive. Your moves also act negatively and positively, but differently every sim so it's hard to say reason x is why you're doing poorly as opposed to reason y. The game this year is also definitely harder than it was in previous years in terms of building dynasties, so that' s another factor (at least for me). __________________ Shootin' at the walls of heartache, BANG BANG, I am THE WARRIOR! "It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am"- Ali Wladimir Klitschko will DESTROY you.

04-01-2015, 05:41 PM	#3
sandman2575 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Cambridge, MA Posts: 255	It sounds like you've simply had a spate of very bad luck. You haven't been bitten by the catastrophic injuries bug it appears, so you must have a roster of seriously under-performing players. Not the first time in MLB history that has happened. Looks like you're too deep in a hole to vie for a wildcard spot this season, although I'd be surprised if things didn't even out a bit (barring serious injuries), and that you could conceivably approach .500 by game 162, with some decent winning streaks in the second half of the season... And of course, 'there's always next year'...

04-01-2015, 06:18 PM	#5
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,005	Welcome to the boards bzumeta. I think your guiding philosophy is sound. The way you've planned to handle injuries sounds wise. I will trust that your description of your backups is accurate. It is good to hear that you have top 4 pitching, though some of that is Safeco and some of that is running King Felix out every five days. I think your problem is just plain bad luck. I think that many good managers and GM's have lost their jobs over the years for no good reason at all. They are thoughtful, prepared, and are executing their plan successfully. Unfortunately they run into a streak where they are playing .370 baseball over half a season when "everybody knows" they are a .555 ballclub. Someone must be accountable for that difference. Humans place that sort of accountability on the tribal elder instead of Murphy. The crowd demands a propitiatory sacrifice and so the leaders get fired. What's your Pythagorean W-L Record?

04-01-2015, 07:01 PM	#7
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	Well it is the Mariners.

04-01-2015, 07:11 PM	#9
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	Seriously, The ratings are based on past performance potentially is more on scouting than performance. Several reasons why Seattle might be bad. 1. Maybe the pundits are out of left left field in their prediction. I have heard some say the Astros will compete for a wildcard this year. It is hard to say if your team is under or over performing because the season hasn't started. 2. Plain old back luck. All computer games are based on probabilities. Sometimes you get better performance than expected sometimes worse. 3. Although you start with real rosters, teams can make trades cut the wrong guys etc. So you can't expect say the opening day Angels or As to be the midseason Angels or A's. Predicitions are made on pre-season. Teams can shift players drastically by midseason. If you look at any opening day roster you find at least some to a lot of guys are gone in the first month. The real Mariners will likely do this. Don't be afraid to trade or demote guys who just aren't performing. If you follow Seattle this becomes hard. Maybe you like the way player X plays and because he started last season you want to start him. A real GM moves the guys who aren't performing. You have to be the same way.

04-01-2015, 07:39 PM	#10
Yick Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 103	First off, both Texas teams will round out the bottom two of their division. Second, don't count out a comeback. My Jays we sub-500 until late July and then ended up winning a wild card spot.

04-01-2015, 09:29 PM	#12
bzumeta Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: NW California Posts: 10	Thanks for the responses all. I guess this is a plus for realism, as this does feel like another M's season My reason for thinking I may be "playing wrong" is how I am on pace for a 100 loss season with what seems to me and every analyst I've heard say is a 88+win team with a chance of mediocrity but too much pitching to really suck barring catastrophic injuries. And I agree about the harm of favoritism, but I did trade Robinson Cano for Jose Abreu, and other than holding with Zunino based on his defense I have generally traded for solid replacements (Justin Upton, a 13-13-13 guy) for underperforming left platoon fielders and an injury to Nelson Cruz. I thought Upton was almost unrealistically easy to get based on his ratings (maybe my scouting director Todd McNamara is bad, but his ratings are good. Who scouts the scouts?). Have the meaning of the ratings been adjusted much since '12? I generally thought of 13+ for power, contact etc, as a significant plus attribute relative to the average. I generally have a lineup where 12-13/20 this is the mean batter attribute number, but I may be overvaluing attribute scores over recent performance.

04-01-2015, 11:01 PM	#15
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I want Lorenzo Cain to bat .302 in my game....traded Leonys Martin for him in my Rangers game and he's batting like .200.

04-01-2015, 11:07 PM	#16
jlking Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 85	Nelson Cruz seems to be the key. I have simmed about a dozen MLB season now and the Mariners end up just over .500 in most and often just below that. The one year they did do great, Cruz was a league leader in home runs and WAR. The game seems to hate Weeks and Happ. Happ should benefit with a large park like Safeco where his fly balls can stay in the park, but in my sims, he is gone by the All Star break. If Zunino is hitting even around .220, move him up to the number five positions. I have had some luck with that. Actually I am doing pretty well with the Mariners as a manger. But the season long sims have not been up to the press we are hearing.

04-02-2015, 01:26 PM	#20
bzumeta Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: NW California Posts: 10	[QUOTE=jlking;3844398]Nelson Cruz seems to be the key. I have simmed about a dozen MLB season now and the Mariners end up just over .500 in most and often just below that. The one year they did do great, Cruz was a league leader in home runs and WAR. I think that is a realistic lynchpin and hope the real Cruz will do well. In my sim Cruz has been hurt half the games so far, and despite trading a reliever for Upton (he was hitting poorly on a tanking Padres team in May) the offense fell off rom average to abysmal correlating to his absence, as Abreu and Olivera are down to hitting .260. My leader in avg is Seager at .271! I have seen M's teams this bad on offense, but don't think this year's lineup is deeper than just Cano and Cruz. Those past teams just sucked at hitting, Safeco is not as bad a place to hit (look at the 2000-2002 #s for Ichiro and Boone) as many seem to think. Beltre had nobody behind him and played hurt a lot while in Seattle, and Ibanez resurrected his career there. Oh well, better actually watch some real games rather than slog through a worst case scenario!