Preseason Predictions

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by SteveP

I think you may have a misconception about how league total modifiers work. They are designed to work automatically so that the game will produce realistic stats on a total season, total league basis. The screaming and hollering occurs when the game does not produce realistic stats.

The game used to adjust LTMs by looking at the results in the previous season and adjusting accordingly. However, that had two problems: (1) the first season always produced bad results; and (2) the adjustments couldn't account for changes in the league that occurred between seasons. Both problems could be fixed by gamers using a little trick which was in fact based on simulating the upcoming season and manually adjusting the LTMs yourself. Markus decided to incorporate this trick in the game to run automatically.

It's entirely my supposition that this simulation feature is what produces the preseason predications.

I understand very well how LTMs work. I have manually adjusted my league totals since v4, when there were no LTMs and you had to lower numbers to get higher results and raise numbers to get lower results, and then manually with LTMs up to the addition of autocalc. Here is a thread I started back when v12 was released with autocalc where I compared my manual LTMs to the new autocalc LTMs http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...modifiers.html


Never been any doubt in my mind that the game simulated seasons quickly to come up with the predictions. I just don't think it is adjusting LTMs unless it is only adjusting them during the prediction cycle and these "new" LTMs are not actually carried forward into my new season. That would make sense to me.

Maybe I'm wrong but I simply can't conceive why the game would automatically adjust my LTM's without my consent. I would think that is why auto-calc is provided so I can decide if and when LTMs are adjusted. What if I want my league stats to drift a bit from my league totals and only adjust my LTMs every three seasons? No longer possible if the game is going to autocalc my LTMs without my consent unless I then go back and manually adjust my actual League Totals and then run autocalc again.

Again if you are saying the game is manipulating LTMs during the preseason simulation only and not "saving" these new LTMs that makes sense to me. If the game adjusts LTMs for my league without my consent (and I don't think it does) that is a problem that should be fixed.

[Syd Thrift]

The game also, of course, doesn't sim injuries, because you never know for sure if someone's going to get hurt. That can make a pretty huge difference if you've got injury-prone guys in your starting lineup/starting rotation but crappy subs.

This feature has been around for a few editions now but it's starting to grow on me. For younger leagues where you're running in God mode, a quick peek at this can at least get you started on who is supposed to be good and who isn't, and through that you can figure out which teams stick with the vet who isn't producing / start dumping older and only marginally useful players from their minor league system.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Again if you are saying the game is manipulating LTMs during the preseason simulation only and not "saving" these new LTMs that makes sense to me. If the game adjusts LTMs for my league without my consent (and I don't think it does) that is a problem that should be fixed.

I have no idea what happens when you stop the game from automatically adjusting LTMs, but I assume the game does not change LTMs if you choose to play that way. Nor do I know how the game produces preseason predictions (if it does) in that situation. Nor do I know for certain how the game produces preseason predictions generally -- I only have a theory. Also, I may have misunderstood your previous post.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by SteveP

I have no idea what happens when you stop the game from automatically adjusting LTMs, but I assume the game does not change LTMs if you choose to play that way. Nor do I know how the game produces preseason predictions (if it does) in that situation. Nor do I know for certain how the game produces preseason predictions generally -- I only have a theory. Also, I may have misunderstood your previous post.

I've never stopped the game from automatically adjusting LTM but I've never started it either. Like Sweed I'd be pisd if for any reason ( like evolution or story lines) the game has dangerous features enabled without the human player expressly saying yes. Are you saying that auto adjust LTM is on by default? If so I strenuously object.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by RchW

Are you saying that auto adjust LTM is on by default?

Yes. Has been for as long as I've been playing OOTP (since v.9). From my experience, the number of OOTPers who complain if they get league stats that are skewed from real life league stats is much larger than the number of OOTPers who want to manipulate the LTMs manually. So, to me, it makes sense that LTM adjustment is turned on by default.

As a side note, I've been known to manipulate one or two LTMs every season myself, but I've never found any reason to do more than that, so I don't mind doing it routinely after the game has made it's adjustments.

[Boston15]

The preseason predictions, I find, are a little strange. My Red Sox went 90-72 in 2013. The latest set of preseason predictions had them at 64-98. I don't find the team much weaker at all.

Also, I added 2 expansion teams and one of them was predicted to finish 75-87. Guess there's a lot more than I thought.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

The game also, of course, doesn't sim injuries, because you never know for sure if someone's going to get hurt. That can make a pretty huge difference if you've got injury-prone guys in your starting lineup/starting rotation but crappy subs.

This feature has been around for a few editions now but it's starting to grow on me. For younger leagues where you're running in God mode, a quick peek at this can at least get you started on who is supposed to be good and who isn't, and through that you can figure out which teams stick with the vet who isn't producing / start dumping older and only marginally useful players from their minor league system.

This.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by Boston15

The preseason predictions, I find, are a little strange. My Red Sox went 90-72 in 2013. The latest set of preseason predictions had them at 64-98. I don't find the team much weaker at all.

Also, I added 2 expansion teams and one of them was predicted to finish 75-87. Guess there's a lot more than I thought.

If you've kept the 2013 roster together, you're going to get age-related regression to the point that the roster is 75% worthless. I'm guessing that the game knows that Napoli (if you kept him), Ortiz, Pedroia, Lester, Dempster, Lackey, and Uehara are all worthless in 2014.

[rpriske]

Originally Posted by JMDurron

If you've kept the 2013 roster together, you're going to get age-related regression to the point that the roster is 75% worthless. I'm guessing that the game knows that Napoli (if you kept him), Ortiz, Pedroia, Lester, Dempster, Lackey, and Uehara are all worthless in 2014.

Yeah, because Pedroia is well past his prime....


Uh, no.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by rpriske

Yeah, because Pedroia is well past his prime....


Uh, no.

I know he's not in real world terms, but I've generally found that, playing with default aging/development modifiers, that ages 30-onward are heavy regression time, even for specific individuals that we might expect to continue producing in the real world. "Worthless" would clearly be an oversell in Pedroia's case, but he was no more than league average by 2015 in my current league, and a negative value player by 2017.

I think this is the same reason that the Yankees always seem to tank in my leagues as well. OOTP just sees age as a variable among the other 1s and 0s, so when I see a Red Sox team getting that bad from 2013 to 2014, I'm assuming that Pedroia got roped into the age-related decline crowd in that particular league. That's an assumption I was making based on that preseason prediction value.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Yes. Has been for as long as I've been playing OOTP (since v.9). From my experience, the number of OOTPers who complain if they get league stats that are skewed from real life league stats is much larger than the number of OOTPers who want to manipulate the LTMs manually. So, to me, it makes sense that LTM adjustment is turned on by default.

As a side note, I've been known to manipulate one or two LTMs every season myself, but I've never found any reason to do more than that, so I don't mind doing it routinely after the game has made it's adjustments.

So why was the auto recalc button added? If it adjusts my LTMs automatically each season, why did Markus add that?

[gbmoore121]

Yup, read that too. Here's the quote...

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3288257

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by kingcharlesxii

It means the depth chart is not set up correctly for the teams that it happens to. That's one thing I wish the predictions would do is simulate an auto-reorder of the depth charts before running it.

this would be HUGE. I hate to see bad depth charts screw up predictions, especially in online lgs.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by gbmoore121

Yup, read that too. Here's the quote...

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3288257

well that answers that.

[Questdog]

Originally Posted by slugga27

I swear I read somewhere last year that how the pre-season predictions are determined is as follows:

The simulation engine does a quick simulation of the season three times, with injuries, transactions, etc. turned off and then averages the results to spit out the prediction.

The engine does 3 sims to figure out the modifiers. The prediction sim is a completely different sim and I think it is only run once, not 3 times.

And as another poster mentioned earlier the odd usage results (starters pitching in 80 games or the like) is because the prediction sim uses whatever is set up in the lineups and depth charts and pitching staffs setups....if nothing is there, weird stuff happens. Also injuries are turned off for the run and possibly fatigue as well, but not sure about that. Though it would explain observed behavior of over usage of pitchers.

[Questdog]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

So why was the auto recalc button added? If it adjusts my LTMs automatically each season, why did Markus add that?

It only adjusts LTMs automatically if you have the check box ticked off to do that. And checking that box not only has LTMs auto calc'd but League Totals imported as well. Unchecking the box allows you to run auto calc manually without altering the League Totals.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Questdog

It only adjusts LTMs automatically if you have the check box ticked off to do that. And checking that box not only has LTMs auto calc'd but League Totals imported as well. Unchecking the box allows you to run auto calc manually without altering the League Totals.

What if I'm in year 2028? Does it just do the recalc?

[Questdog]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

What if I'm in year 2028? Does it just do the recalc?

Someone else has to answer that one, because I never use the auto-import option.....

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Questdog

Someone else has to answer that one, because I never use the auto-import option.....

I think it just uses the last one in the database over and over.. at least mine didn't change this year.

We need a chat session with Markus.. too many things we don't know much about around here.