From five stars to one star overnight?

[Craig S.]

I have a 29-year-old pitcher, former Cy Young winner, who suffered a drop from five stars to one literally overnight. His pitching ratings haven't changed, but his performance has dropped to match the one-star rating.

He's still got 16-13-20 ratings for the big three pitching categories, which are numbers similar to previous years. No injuries, and nothing to indicate that this would occur.

Is this just something that happens in OOTP, similar to a real-life situation like Lincecum?

[D-BacksJosh]

Jarr Jurrjens anyone? I've had this happen to me, it is realistic in my opinion. Maybe the pitcher just got completely out of whack and needs some time in the minors to get things back together again.

[Craig S.]

Originally Posted by D-BacksJosh

Jarr Jurrjens anyone? I've had this happen to me, it is realistic in my opinion. Maybe the pitcher just got completely out of whack and needs some time in the minors to get things back together again.

Thanks for the response - the trip to the minors is exactly what I'm trying right now.

[NateAndStuff]

This happens real life but seems like it happens too often in OOTP. I'd say the majority of my great players turn into garbage after anywhere between 3-6 years of greatness. I get so sick of guys having multiple 30/30, .300/.370/.500 seasons in a row, just to see my scout say "Minor League filler at best" in Spring Training.

[Sven Draconian]

I also agree that it seems to be a bit too high on the random talent hits. One solution is to drop the random talent changes percentage.

In my league, I drafted a player #1 overall (John Harris). In 120 games in his rookie year he posts a .370 OBP and has a 20-20 season. I believe he was 23 years old.

The next year his OBP drops down into the .350 range.

The next year it drops into the .330s.

Now in his 4th year he is struggling to OBP .300.

Part of the OBP is due to slight drop in batting average. I understand that. He has pretty consistently increased his power, I understand how that could cause a drop in average.

However, his walk rate has been in free fall. He walked 70 some odd times as a rookie (in about 420 AB), then only 60 in around 460 AB, 50 in over 550 AB and now he is on pace for less than 30 walks over 600 AB. His K rate has remained about the same, maybe a slight jump, but fairly consistent.

Again, this is over the ages of 23-27. I don't know if I can think of a real life example of a player who has dropped his BB rate by so much, so fast while still in his prime (and without suffering an injury, or a notable increase in strikeouts, an increase in power and only a minor blip in BA.)

[JohnHoward]

Not quite the same but when I think of overnight collapses this is always who comes to mind:

Joe Charboneau Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

[Sgran]

Maybe his source got popped. Sammy Sosa anyone?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Craig S.

I have a 29-year-old pitcher, former Cy Young winner, who suffered a drop from five stars to one literally overnight. His pitching ratings haven't changed, but his performance has dropped to match the one-star rating.

He's still got 16-13-20 ratings for the big three pitching categories, which are numbers similar to previous years. No injuries, and nothing to indicate that this would occur.

Is this just something that happens in OOTP, similar to a real-life situation like Lincecum?

I wouldn't call Tim Lincecum a one-star pitcher at this point but I think the biggest difference is this: IRL you're dealing with actual people and as such there's a need to provide a narrative behind their sudden fall from grace. Most of the time, you hear about the ominous "drop in velocity" and then the guy is diagnosed with bone chips in their elbow or something, gets surgery, and really isn't any better afterward either. The effect is the same as "now I'm good, now I'm not".

[TGH-Adfabre]

Is scouting on?