Catcher ability in OOTP 13

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

I'm still trying to figure out what all the post-announcement bickering is about. Markus uses rigorous studies to implement a new feature that reflects something missing and needed in the game, he specifically addressed any concerns about extreme effects, and yet people continue to second-guess him?

Nothing more to see here, guys. Move along.

10 years ago when DIPS theory first came out it was thought that pitchers had no control after the ball left their hand other the ks,bbs, and home runs. Theory has since been re-stated to say pitchers have limited control over these things. We have seen some of these findings changed a bit after more research has been done on a subject.

I think what the people showing concern are really worried about, Markus is handeling very well. I think it is far better for this quality to be implemented cautiously until we are certain how much the quality really exists. 3 wins for framing pitches is a pretty big deal. Are we really ready for the computer to be trading Ryan Howard for a good catcher at framing pitches?

Everything researched thus far may very well be true and correct but it is still a huge change to the mechanics of the game.

[tigey75]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

10 years ago when DIPS theory first came out it was thought that pitchers had no control after the ball left their hand other the ks,bbs, and home runs. Theory has since been re-stated to say pitchers have limited control over these things. We have seen some of these findings changed a bit after more research has been done on a subject.

I think what the people showing concern are really worried about, Markus is handeling very well. I think it is far better for this quality to be implemented cautiously until we are certain how much the quality really exists. 3 wins for framing pitches is a pretty big deal. Are we really ready for the computer to be trading Ryan Howard for a good catcher at framing pitches?

Everything researched thus far may very well be true and correct but it is still a huge change to the mechanics of the game.

I was initially 100% on board with this new framing implementation, but you guys do raise some very interesting concerns. I know we're in capable hands with Markus and co, but as we've seen before the communities concerns help keep this game on top.

[joetheref]

Something like this is always going to be slightly controversial as we are supposed to believe umpires can get 100% of calls perfect, obviously thats not true or even possible.

[khucke]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

This is the hardest thing for me to grasp. I mean Ryan Howard is a 3 win player. Its hard for me to imagine framing pitches can be as important to a team as Ryan Howard is. I think its a great concept but I just dont know if we can safely say framing pitches is as important as initial claims are saying. As long as he is using caution I cant wait for this. Catchers handeling of pitchers did need some love and it is finally here.

According to the study the value of the best catcher (Jose Molina) is even highe than Ryan Howard's three wins.
While batting wins are measured as 'above replacement level' , the values in the framing study are 'above average'. So Molina's framing value might roughly be 4 or 4.5 above replacement level.

[snepp]

Originally Posted by khucke

According to the study the value of the best catcher (Jose Molina) is even highe than Ryan Howard's three wins.
While batting wins are measured as 'above replacement level' , the values in the framing study are 'above average'. So Molina's framing value might roughly be 4 or 4.5 above replacement level.

Replacement level players (at least the ones in theory) typically aren't inept defensively, they're inept offensively, so it's unlikely he's much better compared to replacement than compared to average. It's easier to be a decent defender than it is to be a decent hitter.

[oman19]

Think about the average number of pitches seen per game. It' s around 147 or there about. Say 10 percent of those are nibbling corners and the catcher is able to frame them. That is 14 or 15 pitches per game he can change from a ball to strike.

Think about that. That is 14 or 15 times a count goes 2-1 instead of 3-0 or 1-2 instead of 2-1. We all know you have to pitch different depending on what the count is. If anything I see this being worth even more than 3 wins per season. I think they are being a bit conservative in the study. Everytime the ball is thrown you possiably could have this coming into play. Not just the 4 times Ryan Howard comes to the dish or few balls he might field at 1st a game.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by snepp

Replacement level players (at least the ones in theory) typically aren't inept defensively, they're inept offensively, so it's unlikely he's much better compared to replacement than compared to average. It's easier to be a decent defender than it is to be a decent hitter.

It's fundamental to how rosters are constructed. If your bat isn't good your only reason to be on the roster is defense. Bad fielders can stick but only with a good bat.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by oman19

Think about the average number of pitches seen per game. It' s around 147 or there about. Say 10 percent of those are nibbling corners and the catcher is able to frame them. That is 14 or 15 pitches per game he can change from a ball to strike.

Think about that. That is 14 or 15 times a count goes 2-1 instead of 3-0 or 1-2 instead of 2-1. We all know you have to pitch different depending on what the count is. If anything I see this being worth even more than 3 wins per season. I think they are being a bit conservative in the study. Everytime the ball is thrown you possiably could have this coming into play. Not just the 4 times Ryan Howard comes to the dish or few balls he might field at 1st a game.

The key part you are missing in this is wins above replacement level. We arent even sure what replacement level is at this point.

[The Wolf]

It seems like part of the skittish reaction to this is due to its surprise factor. This analysis has actually been going on for some time, and to Markus and me and many others it's familiar territory. But it clearly wasn't to some of you guys.

Here's a very skeptical summary of it all that those of you with doubts might enjoy:

The Movement To Rethink Catcher Value - Baseball Nation

Like DIPS, it may need some revision work down the road. But it's real, and it therefore belongs in OOTP.

[Reikazawa]

Not a surprise factor at all for some here that have expressed caution. The caution is based on knowing what the numbers in the study really represent.

For example, read Mike Fast post here:

BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: DRaysBay: Report: Jose Molina Officially Signs With Rays

... my best estimate at the current time is that the effect is about 65% of what I said it was in the study I published, but it may be somewhat higher than that due to the effect preferentially happening on two-strike counts.

...the numbers that DRaysBay is reporting are the unregressed (observed) numbers. The regressed (estimate of persistent skill) for Molina is +28 runs per 120 games and for Jaso -5 runs per 120 games.

If you take my best estimate that the real effect is 65% of what I originally reported, then that's +18 runs for Molina and -3 runs for Jaso, or about two wins difference per season for framing.

[OutS|der]

i wonder how many runs Jake Taylor saved the Indians that year, had to be worth a few wins at least

[tigey75]

"There's still a long way to go to nail down the exact value of what catchers do behind the plate besides the obvious"

Direct quote from above-noted article. I think most OOTP fans welcome the "surprise" factor, but cautious optimism is always a good thing.

[ike121212]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc. I always feel a little pompous for using it, but it's exactly what these studies are based on, and why they are uncomfortable. They're giving credit for an umpire's missed call to the catcher.

There's 85 umpires on the MLB roster. I think it's fair to say that they vary in consistency and in the likelihood that framing persuades them, also that there's many other factors that influence their calls. I think this is why you see the lack of consistency in the data. There's only a couple catcher's who are consistently + or - 1 standard deviation.

That said, diluting the study results and adding it to the game is a nice addition.

[The Wolf]

Catcher effects are a lot like DIPS, and as someone said about that, "DIPS is just like going to the dentist. It's scary and it makes you nervous but once you actually sit down in the chair and things get going it's not so bad."

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Catcher effects are a lot like DIPS, and as someone said about that, "DIPS is just like going to the dentist. It's scary and it makes you nervous but once you actually sit down in the chair and things get going it's not so bad."

Ask Dustin Hoffman about going to the dentist.

I think it is safe to realize that there is more to discover about what happens on the diamond. The march of discovery is a marathon.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Catcher effects are a lot like DIPS, and as someone said about that, "DIPS is just like going to the dentist. It's scary and it makes you nervous but once you actually sit down in the chair and things get going it's not so bad."

I think you are making this about something more than what it is. I think we all agree the catcher has effects on framing pitches. What we really dont know is to what effect. I dont see us as being "nervous" simply because some of arent willing to agree that framing pitches is as important as a decent hitter or above average starting pitcher in MLB. We dont know the effects but Id guess the top catcher at framing pitches has a WAR of 1.5 or less in that department.

Markus has already satisfied most of my individual concerns with his replys so I guess I am really not nervous about anything other than people coming on here and trying to convince him that framing pitches needs more weight.

As long as its something to this effect I am satisfied
Molina 1.3/1.5 WAR
Doumit -1.0 WAR

with the majority of the other catchers between -1 WAR and 1 WAR.

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Catcher effects are a lot like DIPS, and as someone said about that, "DIPS is just like going to the dentist. It's scary and it makes you nervous but once you actually sit down in the chair and things get going it's not so bad."

You do realize no one is arguing with you or has actually said they didn't believe framing exists or that it shouldn't be in OOTP?!?

I'm concerned for online leagues since this change can (and most likely will) screw over some teams with weak fielding catchers who hit well and have big contracts. I'd also like Markus to be a little more forthcoming about the feature and how an 8 differs from a 6 and a 4. Other than that, I have no problem with the feature... nor does any else that has posted here.

Some have blind optimism, others are a little more cautious.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Markus has already satisfied most of my individual concerns with his replys so I guess I am really not nervous about anything other than people coming on here and trying to convince him that framing pitches needs more weight.

As long as its something to this effect I am satisfied
Molina 1.3/1.5 WAR
Doumit -1.0 WAR

Even how to 'see' and measure its impact will be open to debate, probably, once the release is in hand. However, if Markus ends ups, as he's indicated he may, adding a modifier line in the configuration, it will be able to serve everyone's personal tastes.

[ike121212]

I just loaded one of my leagues, and found 115 Catchers with an 18+ Fielding Rating. That's 15% of the C's in the universe. A full 30% of the MLB C's are at this level. My only concern here is the effect that 30% at +3 dWAR would have.

[CBL-Commish]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Like DIPS, it may need some revision work down the road. But it's real, and it therefore belongs in OOTP.

How do you reconcile those two ideas? That it may need some revision down the road, but it has to be in OOTP right now? I don't really have a problem with a toned-down, very conservative estimate of framing being incorporated now, but diving right in and giving Jose Molina a +30 framing rating (and the inevitable fictional catcher who gets generated with a +50 or +60) just opens Markus up to looking back from 2017 thinking "Wow, that was a little over-the-top. Maybe I should have held off before giving Molina's pitch framing abilities more value than Mark Teixeira's entire season"

But I guess it also gives him a feature tagline for a couple versions down the road: "Now with a far more accurate catcher framing model!"