4 or 5 man rotations

[waltwa]

This is an area that has bothered me recently in online leagues.

In modern leagues after 1990 or so most if not all teams have gone to a 5 man rotation due to concern over SP arm injuries. But in online leagues some people are using 4 man rotations after 2011 and at least as i have observed no penalty has come about in the form of major or career ending injuries.

There is a reason why every team in the ML's uses a 5 man rotation. It is the safe way to go.

Let's say Bochy decides to use Zito as a MR and go with a sensational 4 man rotation in 2011. Great sf sends 4 aces to the mound every day. there is just 1 problem with that. "OOPS" Lincecum out for season and maybe career. Bochy and Sabean have just entered the job market.

The difference is that in OOTP online leagues no one gets fired they just quit when and if their SP rotation dissolves and move on to another league.

There simply has to be a penalty of reduced efficiency and a major chance of major injuries when someone goes with a 4 man rotation except in the playoffs when there are additional off days.

By the way there is a real reason why ML mgrs go with 5 man rotations. There is extensive research by Bill James and others that show that especially with SP's under 25 there is a very great risk of reduced efficiency and/or arm trouble if too many pitches are thrown. The risk may not be as great over 25 but it still exists.

[mike2228]

I have to disagree about injuries not occurring more frequently to pitchers of a 4 man rotation. I've noticed that the likely hood of an injury is substantially higher when I pitcher starts a game less than 100% rested.

[waltwa]

Mike i can only go by the leagues i am in and simply have not seen the injury bug hit.

i would like to see it addressed in teh manual that there is a significant risk if SP's are not rested properly. I will check to see if it is addressed

[Killebrew]

I would put big money down that OOTP pitcher injury risk is not effected in any way by putting a pitcher out there every 4th turn*, I doubt that impact was even promised in OOTP. What I have read is that tired OOTP pitchers are less effective. I have not seen any signs of reduced effectiveness for online league teams that use 4 man rotations, but I am hoping there is at least some minimal impact there.

* Beyond simply increasing the dice roll odds of injury via increased play during games.

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by waltwa

This is an area that has bothered me recently in online leagues.

In modern leagues after 1990 or so most if not all teams have gone to a 5 man rotation due to concern over SP arm injuries. But in online leagues some people are using 4 man rotations after 2011 and at least as i have observed no penalty has come about in the form of major or career ending injuries.

There is a reason why every team in the ML's uses a 5 man rotation. It is the safe way to go.

Let's say Bochy decides to use Zito as a MR and go with a sensational 4 man rotation in 2011. Great sf sends 4 aces to the mound every day. there is just 1 problem with that. "OOPS" Lincecum out for season and maybe career. Bochy and Sabean have just entered the job market.

The difference is that in OOTP online leagues no one gets fired they just quit when and if their SP rotation dissolves and move on to another league.

There simply has to be a penalty of reduced efficiency and a major chance of major injuries when someone goes with a 4 man rotation except in the playoffs when there are additional off days.

By the way there is a real reason why ML mgrs go with 5 man rotations. There is extensive research by Bill James and others that show that especially with SP's under 25 there is a very great risk of reduced efficiency and/or arm trouble if too many pitches are thrown. The risk may not be as great over 25 but it still exists.

Some of the online leagues I'm in have rules against using 4 man rotations. I'd petition the commissioner rather than implement something in OOTP itself. Not everyone plays the game the same way and to force "modern leagues" to use 5 man rotations for all leagues would be a bit of an overreaction IMHO.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by statfreak

Some of the online leagues I'm in have rules against using 4 man rotations. I'd petition the commissioner rather than implement something in OOTP itself. Not everyone plays the game the same way and to force "modern leagues" to use 5 man rotations for all leagues would be a bit of an overreaction IMHO.

Bingo - not everyone plays the same way.

That's one of the main reasons there are so many options in the game. You can setup your league to increase/decrease pitcher endurance, you can set standard rotations to 3, 4, 5, or 6 if so desired. The things you can adjust to have an effect on players is almost endless.

Don't forget either, there's a lot of fictional leagues out there, solo and online. Not all are looking to follow a standard ML style/setup.

[waltwa]

But there is such a thing as real baseball. In real modern baseball there are only 5 man rotations and the reason is no one in their right mind would expose their job security by going against accepted practice.

I agree that people want to play the game differently but injuries and reduced effectiveness are a part of the game and that's why there are no 4 man rotations. Noticeably increased Injuries and reduced effectiveness should be a part of the game.

What about a 3 man rotation or a 2 or 1.

I don't really care how people play the solo game but i do care in online leagues.

The real point tho is this. Put yourself in a position where you are making 2.5 mil a yr and you decide to go with a 4 man rotation- it won't happen and by the way what pitcher wants to pitch 300 innings in 2011- its not baseball.

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by waltwa

But there is such a thing as real baseball. In real modern baseball there are only 5 man rotations and the reason is no one in their right mind would expose their job security by going against accepted practice.

I agree that people want to play the game differently but injuries and reduced effectiveness are a part of the game and that's why there are no 4 man rotations. Noticeably increased Injuries and reduced effectiveness should be a part of the game.

What about a 3 man rotation or a 2 or 1.

I don't really care how people play the solo game but i do care in online leagues.

The real point tho is this. Put yourself in a position where you are making 2.5 mil a yr and you decide to go with a 4 man rotation- it won't happen and by the way what pitcher wants to pitch 300 innings in 2011- its not baseball.

I'll disagree to the extent, I never want to mimic the current MLB and instead always want things closer to the late 70's / early 80's in my leagues.

Again, I don't think you can impose any limits or penalties in the game itself. It is up to online leagues to determine what rules to use and what is fair or not.

I understand what you are saying, but hardcoding your suggestions would severely limit enjoyment of the game not only for solo players, but also online leagues that don't want to mimic major league baseball. There are already too many instances where OOTP has decided "real" baseball is the way it should be. Many of us aren't interested in simulating "real" baseball, but our own baseball universes (be they solo or online leagues).

[waltwa]

but in the early 70's and 80's there were 4 man rotations

[Layton is my Homeboy]

Originally Posted by Killebrew

I would put big money down that OOTP pitcher injury risk is not effected in any way by putting a pitcher out there every 4th turn*, I doubt that impact was even promised in OOTP. What I have read is that tired OOTP pitchers are less effective. I have not seen any signs of reduced effectiveness for online league teams that use 4 man rotations, but I am hoping there is at least some minimal impact there.

* Beyond simply increasing the dice roll odds of injury via increased play during games.

This is what the OOTP 11 Manual says on that topic:

Fatigue / Rest Status
Players also accumulate fatigue as the season goes on, displayed as percentage "Rest Status" in the Health Status section of any page in the Player Profile. Each time a player participates in a game, he gains a certain amount of fatigue, reducing his Rest Status. Each day off restores Rest Status. Once a certain amount of fatigue has been accumulated, the player becomes tired. Tired players don't perform as well, and are also more prone to suffering injuries. Pitchers are often very tired or even exhausted immediately after pitching.

So, starting a pitcher who is fatigued increases the likelihood of injury. Fewer rest days between starts increases the likelihood that your pitcher will be fatigued. Of course, the extent of of the pitcher's fatigue on three-days' rest will depend in part on the pitcher stamina setting in your league set-up.

It is not clear from the manual whether "typical starting rotation size" affects pitchers' recovery rate after a start.

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Bingo - not everyone plays the same way.

That's one of the main reasons there are so many options in the game. You can setup your league to increase/decrease pitcher endurance, you can set standard rotations to 3, 4, 5, or 6 if so desired. The things you can adjust to have an effect on players is almost endless.

Don't forget either, there's a lot of fictional leagues out there, solo and online. Not all are looking to follow a standard ML style/setup.

This is very true and it is one of OOTP's great strengths that it is flexible enough to accommodate a wide variety of game setups. However, I would suggest that the issue of the relationship between rotation size and injuries should be determined by the league settings. If the league settings say that a typical rotation is 5 pitchers and pitcher stamina is low, then a manager who uses a 4-man rotation should see a higher rate of injured pitchers. For those who want to play a different style, it is always an option to adjust the league settings to get a different result.

[gnomez]

Originally Posted by waltwa

By the way there is a real reason why ML mgrs go with 5 man rotations. There is extensive research by Bill James and others that show that especially with SP's under 25 there is a very great risk of reduced efficiency and/or arm trouble if too many pitches are thrown. The risk may not be as great over 25 but it still exists.

I'm pretty sure Baseball Prospectus did a risk/reward analysis in one of their books that said that the benefit of a 4-man rotation and not having a useless 5th starter outweighs the increased injury risk for established starters, and that, concurring with James, there isn't actually much of an increased injury risk for healthy starters over the age of 25.

I could be wrong - I'm pretty sure I read these about 5 years ago.

[Killebrew]

Originally Posted by Layton is my Homeboy

This is what the OOTP 11 Manual says...

By this point in the development of OOTP anyone who has played the game awhile knows they have to take some parts of the manual with a boulder of salt. The number of claimed OOTP features that do not work at all or do not work the way they are advertised is large, and increased injury risk due to fatigue is certainly one of them that has to be questioned. Specifically, there are two claims referred to here:
1. Tired players don't perform as well
2. ...are also more prone to suffering injuries.

Based on 100's of seasons using recent versions of OOTP I would say #2 is almost certainly not in OOTP. #1 is much harder to test, but I have faith/hope that some element of that feature is in the game.

[RonCo]

Just to be a little contrary...there is still, I believe, some debate among the sabermetric community as to whether the 4-man rotation is still the best approach.

The mantra I keep seeing is that injury does not come from throwing often, but from throwing while tired. The 5-man rotation came into being as a defense against injury--but it is just as likely that now that pitchers are on strict 100-110 pitch limits, they could survive just as well in 4-man rotations. When the idea is brought up anymore, the arguments I hear are mostly cultural or psychological in nature...things like "these kids have grown up learning how to throw on 5-days rest, so they would have to be totally mentally re-geared to a 4-man rotation" ... which I find to be kinda silly.

Bottom line, it's likely that if teams learned in the 1970s that pitch counts would keep their starters healthier, and they implemented them at that point (rather than just giving guys an extra day to recover from their 140-pitch outing during which they were certainly exposed to injury) we might still have 4-man rotations today.

Regarding OOTP's implementation, it does seem to me that several pitchers I've seen injured in the game have had long outings (125+ pitches) in their recent past. I have not rigerously tested it, either, but it would not purprise me if Markus has some kind of PPAP oriented system that he's jiggered up in place--which would mean that a 4-man rotation is probably going to work okay in OOTP as far as injuries are concerned, as long as you keep your starters on strict pitch counts, and if you occasionally skip them a day or two later in the year (or use off-days to augment rest periods).

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by waltwa

but in the early 70's and 80's there were 4 man rotations

The White Sox were running a 4 man rotation back in the 1990's. So it is not unheard of. Although, I don't think anyone does this today in reality modern baseball does run a 4 man rotation for at least part of the season.

What I mean is the 5 man rotation is effectively 4 man when there are off days. The fifth guy gets skipped. The 5th starter is really only there for weeks with no off days. Strict order start highest rested somewhat simulates this, that is if your number 5 is the worst pitcher in your rotation according to the AI which could be different from current stats or who you think the worst pitcher is. Effectively MLB clubs run a 4 man rotation when they can and a 5 man when they have to play 7 or more days in a row.

To show a case in point, many Astros fans were disappointed that top prospect Jordan Lyles was sent down to the minors. The local paper pointed out because the 5th guy is skipped in off days, he would have only gotten 2 or 3 starts in April while he will get more in the minors. There is also the arbitration issue. So they might see Lyles called up in May when the number 5 guy is used more as the schedule will have fewer off days.

In reality, every team says they have a 5 man rotation but the rotation is not a strict order setup. It is a flexible system where often number 5 is more long relief and spot starter when the schedule permits He gets work every 5 days when off days are not present on the schedule. The closest thing to this the AI does is strict order start highest rested. Although sometimes it seems to me that it makes strange decisions on who to start. Like it might go from 5 to 3 when 5 is skipped rather 1. I have noticed after injuries the pitches in the last 5 days show something different than you would expect if number 5 was skipped and they went back to number 1 instead 3 have pitches 5 days ago while 1 has pitches yesterday and the rotation counter is set on number 4. The game starts per season work out about right though.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by RonCo

1. The mantra I keep seeing is that injury does not come from throwing often, but from throwing while tired. The 5-man rotation came into being as a defense against injury--but it is just as likely that now that pitchers are on strict 100-110 pitch limits, they could survive just as well in 4-man rotations. When the idea is brought up anymore, the arguments I hear are mostly cultural or psychological in nature...things like "these kids have grown up learning how to throw on 5-days rest, so they would have to be totally mentally re-geared to a 4-man rotation" ... which I find to be kinda silly.

2. I have not rigerously tested it, either, but it would not purprise me if Markus has some kind of PPAP oriented system that he's jiggered up in place--which would mean that a 4-man rotation is probably going to work okay in OOTP as far as injuries are concerned, as long as you keep your starters on strict pitch counts, and if you occasionally skip them a day or two later in the year (or use off-days to augment rest periods).

1. I agree but in reality there is not a 5 man rotation for a significant part of the season. If you have Monday or Thursday off you can go with 4 guys and your pitcher still has 5 days rest. Whereas I agree pitch counts matter, I think this was harder to do in the 80's and early 90's when MR was not quite what it is today. In the old days your bullpen was usually untested or not that good. If a starter could go 9 you kept the starter. Today, the bullpen is more likely to be good pitchers who just can't go 6 or 7 innings. So pitch counts probably would not have worked in the 1970's like they do today in that managers had fewer bullpen options they could trust.

2. It seems to me 4 man all the time rotations are unlikely to work in OOTP unless you have 4 really high stamina guys. It appears to me even a little work from a starter tires them heavily for 4 days. You could throw 80 pitches and the tired meter reads about the same as if you throw 120. I don't think OOTP is programed to really make a big difference in level of tiredness and recovery from say 100 pitches to 150 pitches. I could be wrong I haven't tested this but my gut from looking at how tired starters get even when they get blown out and leave after 3 innings makes me think it will not work.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by waltwa

This is an area that has bothered me recently in online leagues.

In modern leagues after 1990 or so most if not all teams have gone to a 5 man rotation due to concern over SP arm injuries. But in online leagues some people are using 4 man rotations after 2011 and at least as i have observed no penalty has come about in the form of major or career ending injuries.

There is a reason why every team in the ML's uses a 5 man rotation. It is the safe way to go.

While I agree that this is the "safe" way to go, it's not for the reasons you propose, I don't think. The 5 man rotation is what everyone in the league uses. If a manager decides to go with a 4 man rotation, not only does he have to deal with pitchers complaining that the schedule they've been accustomed to (including the scheduling of throw days and so on) has been adjusted, but if anyone has a bad day it will get blamed on the rotation. And if the manager keeps with it and someone *does* have a major injury (which could well happen even with normal use), it will invariably be blamed on the rotation as well and, as you say later on, the manager gets fired.

As for the studies, I actually don't think that there are lots of studies which indicate that the 5 man rotation is any safer than the 4 man. There are a good deal of studies as well as flat-out obviousness which demonstrate that throwing lots and lots of pitches in a single game is really, really bad, but over the course of a season, there's just not the proof. Pitchers in baseball don't throw every 5th day and do nothing else with their arm short of lifting their fork to their mouth anyway, so I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for a guy throwing 100 pitches every other day with every 4th game being for money having a greater chance for injury than a guy throwing 5 games out of 10 with 2 of those being for money. I guess he might throw more dangeous pitches when he is forced to either throw them or not get paid but I also think the greatest harm involved in throwing a pitch is in the throwing.

That being said, I do kind of agree that teams shouldn't be able to go to a 4 man rotation without consequence (and in fairness they don't; pitchers generally don't have the game-to-game stamina throwing every 4th game as they do every 5th, so they'll surrender the game to the bullpen earlier and IME not pitch as well on top of that). What I think the game ought to do is institute "bad boy" points kind of like Europa Universalis. Stay with me here! Anything you do outside of the paradigm of the era - not stealing for example during an era which is big on stealing, not having a closer at all from the 80s on, having your closer enter the game in the 7th and 8th innings too often in the modern era, etc. - earns you badboy points which in turn make AI-controlled teams less willing to trade for you, free agents less willing to sign with you, and your own players unhappy. If your strategies win, the effects of winning ought to cancel out these negatives, but if they don't, well, your team is screwed.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Killebrew

By this point in the development of OOTP anyone who has played the game awhile knows they have to take some parts of the manual with a boulder of salt. The number of claimed OOTP features that do not work at all or do not work the way they are advertised is large, and increased injury risk due to fatigue is certainly one of them that has to be questioned. Specifically, there are two claims referred to here:
1. Tired players don't perform as well
2. ...are also more prone to suffering injuries.

Based on 100's of seasons using recent versions of OOTP I would say #2 is almost certainly not in OOTP. #1 is much harder to test, but I have faith/hope that some element of that feature is in the game.

All I have is anecdotal evidence here (albeit anecdotal evidence based on actually playing out games), but #1 is certainly true, with exhausted players all but useless, and #2 also seems to come into play IME - I've tried to stretch exhausted starters into completing innings or games and have been burned by a long-term injury as often as not. I mostly play in older eras with higher pitch thresholds before tired/exhausted is reached but the little I've played in later eras seems to indicate that this trend is exaggerated (pitchers in the 70s on seem to be useful only for giving up hits, walks, and homeruns when exhausted, whereas I could often get away with assuming they were going to give up a run per inning in the 30s, and if you put them in there against more than 3 or 4 hitters while exhausted you are really tempting fate).

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by waltwa

There is a reason why every team in the ML's uses a 5 man rotation. It is the safe way to go.

If by 'Safe' you mean least controversial, I agree with you. I fear the 5-man rotation has grown into a "by the book" approach that was put in place for all the right reasons, but is actually misguided. Given the bulk of what I've ready and paid attention to, if I were a young starting pitcher today--knowing I was going to be yanked after 100-110 pitches no matter what--I would be lobbying for my manager to start me every four days.

[Layton is my Homeboy]

Originally Posted by Killebrew

By this point in the development of OOTP anyone who has played the game awhile knows they have to take some parts of the manual with a boulder of salt. The number of claimed OOTP features that do not work at all or do not work the way they are advertised is large, and increased injury risk due to fatigue is certainly one of them that has to be questioned. Specifically, there are two claims referred to here:
1. Tired players don't perform as well
2. ...are also more prone to suffering injuries.

Based on 100's of seasons using recent versions of OOTP I would say #2 is almost certainly not in OOTP. #1 is much harder to test, but I have faith/hope that some element of that feature is in the game.

I ran a quick test last night where I created a league with typical, modern-day settings (typical rotation size: 5; pitcher stamina: low; use of relievers: high; injury frequency: normal). I simmed the first game of the season and then managed the second one. I forced the starter from the first game to make a second start in a row.

Naturally, he was already listed as "exhausted" when the game started. He gave up 24 earned runs and walked 12 batters. So, I think that the claim that tired players don't perform as well is supported.

The pitcher did not suffer an injury, despite pitching two days in a row and trowing more than 300 pitches over those two days. This does not prove anything conclusively, but it definitely does not support the claim that a tired pitcher is more likely to get injured.

I may keep pitching him day after day to see what happens. If the game does what it says in the manual, he should be very likely to pick up an injury some time soon.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Layton is my Homeboy

If the game does what it says in the manual, he should be very likely to pick up an injury some time soon.

This is not necessarily true. If the game reflects real life one pitcher could well pitch a ton and not get hurt. Pitchers did it often in the earliest years of baseball. So some percentage of pitchers should be able to pitch huge workloads and not get hurt. If this one pitcher does not get hurt, then he could just be one of those.

Or if he gets hurt he could just be unlucky.

To get a real measure you need to do a reasonable number of them and get an injury rate, then do another set that throw on pitch counts, then do another set with no pitch counts but 5-day rotations.

Otherwise, your example is interesting, but not particularly significant to the question.