Pitching Dilemma; Starter Or Closer?

Hotwheelz · 07-19-2009, 04:03 PM

So I have an interesting and difficult decision I need to make very soon. I've got a 23 year old pitcher at AAA who is rated 10-10-9 for potential on a 1-10 scale and 9-9-4 currently. At AA he 3.89 ERA with a 21/33 K/BB ration in 39 innings. At AAA so far he has a 1.89 ERA with 12-11 ration in 13 innings. His endurance is currently at 4 and his suggested role is starter.

My decision is whether to use him as a closer or starter. I feel that I could mask the control issues. However, the thought of having one of the best starting pitchers is appealing. The fact that he is 23 years old with horrible control issues is the part that really scares me.

What would you guys do?

Full Count · 07-19-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hotwheelz

So I have an interesting and difficult decision I need to make very soon. I've got a 23 year old pitcher at AAA who is rated 10-10-9 for potential on a 1-10 scale and 9-9-4 currently. At AA he 3.89 ERA with a 21/33 K/BB ration in 39 innings. At AAA so far he has a 1.89 ERA with 12-11 ration in 13 innings. His endurance is currently at 4 and his suggested role is starter.

My decision is whether to use him as a closer or starter. I feel that I could mask the control issues. However, the thought of having one of the best starting pitchers is appealing. The fact that he is 23 years old with horrible control issues is the part that really scares me.

What would you guys do?

How many pitches does this kid have? What are those pitches rated at? I have heard that to be a successful SP in X one should have at least 3 decent pitches.

That could be a determining factor in deciding what role he would best fit into.

modesto61ca · 07-19-2009, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Full Count

How many pitches does this kid have? What are those pitches rated at? I have heard that to be a successful SP in X one should have at least 3 decent pitches.

That could be a determining factor in deciding what role he would best fit into.

I agree, if he has two pitches, definately closer. Maybe 3, if the pitches aren't rated highly. Anything more, and starter for sure.

Afino · 07-19-2009, 04:49 PM

Odds are they wouldn't even list him as a suggested starter if he had less than 3 pitches.

I've actually had success with a 8/9/8 (out of 10) pitcher with 8 Stamina and only two pitches, despite his "suggested role" as an emergency starter.

Hotwheelz · 07-19-2009, 05:55 PM

I just shut the game down and I have to head to the store (this bee's nest is proving to be tougher than expected) so I will have to check a little later.

My only concern, whether he has more than 2 pitches or not, is the fact that he is 23 and a control rating of only 4 with obvious control issues in the minors. I am worried that if I wait for that to develop I might lose him as a prospect since he is 23 and would be sitting in AAA for at least another year. Do I look to minimize the risk in a role that is much less valuable or go for gold.

Full Count · 07-19-2009, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afino

Odds are they wouldn't even list him as a suggested starter if he had less than 3 pitches.

I've actually had success with a 8/9/8 (out of 10) pitcher with 8 Stamina and only two pitches, despite his "suggested role" as an emergency starter.

Right, it isn't a given that just because a pitcher has 3 or more pitches that he would be successful in a starting role. Same can be said for a pitcher having only 2 pitches and not being able to hang in that same role.

The chances for success increase though having a wider variety of pitches.

Afino · 07-19-2009, 05:57 PM

I don't think "losing him" as a prospect is an issue. He's 23 and in his first part of a year at AAA. If he's 25 and still having the issues, then yes, there's a problem.

25 is the magic number. It's the cutoff for the Top Prospect lists and really is the realistic age where the final decision needs to be made. No need to worry yet.

Nutlaw · 07-19-2009, 07:25 PM

Does his stuff change when you change him from a SP to a MR role and back?

Does your league use the DH? If not, can he hit?

kq76 · 07-19-2009, 07:33 PM

What's your minor league report say? If it says he's ready for the bigs then I wouldn't hesitate. If it says he's only probably or maybe ready then I'd hesitate. If it doesn't say anything about the bigs then I'd probably ply it safe and keep him in the minors until it says otherwise. I know lots of people don't like to trust what that report says, but I tell myself that I don't know how the game is programmed so it's probably best I at least trust what it says a little and with a big-time prospect I don't want to screw up I'll play it as safe as possible. At least they probably get more playing time in the minors.

I had this dilemma just recently with a stud CF I really could have used in the playoffs and the run leading up to it, but his discipline was still pretty bad so I decided to play it safe and leave him down until it develops further, which will hopefully be the start of next season.

EDIT: As for starter or closer, I'd try to make him into a starter if at all possible. Unless you already have a pretty good rotation, but could really do with a good closer.

JLK · 07-19-2009, 07:38 PM

Nolan Ryan was a relief pitcher on the '69 Mets. Can't you start him out as a reliever and move him to a starting position later? I don't get a chance to play the game as much as I would like, but I thought that was one of the issues the new pitching model was suppose to fix.

Hotwheelz · 07-20-2009, 03:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afino

I don't think "losing him" as a prospect is an issue. He's 23 and in his first part of a year at AAA. If he's 25 and still having the issues, then yes, there's a problem.

25 is the magic number. It's the cutoff for the Top Prospect lists and really is the realistic age where the final decision needs to be made. No need to worry yet.

I just hate to see the guy struggle in the rotation and have it hurt his potential ratings.

Brett Lorin has 4 pitches, fastball (8), curve (10), change (10), forkball (7). Potential ratings in parenthesis.

I was not planning on promoting Lorin to the big leagues at this point in the season. I just know that if you have a player struggle in the minors it can be a detriment to his development. At 23 years of age I was curious if moving him to a role that I feel he would excel in would raise his chances of future success. With such a poor K/BB ratio it had me worried.

jar2574 · 07-20-2009, 01:10 PM

4 pitchs? Starter, if he's better than any of your other starters. Reliever otherwise.

trapper · 07-20-2009, 02:00 PM

The only thing that even makes it a question in my mind is the low stamina. But I would still use him as a starter and hope he could improve his stamina. If his stamina went down to 3 or less I would probably try to turn him into a closer.

Pirate Fan · 07-20-2009, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

I had this dilemma just recently with a stud CF I really could have used in the playoffs and the run leading up to it, but his discipline was still pretty bad so I decided to play it safe and leave him down until it develops further, which will hopefully be the start of next season.

An interesting remark. I would think that as long as the player is reasonably close to being ready a September call up would help his development not hinder it. Are there reasons to believe that players who are almost but not quite ready develop better at home after the AAA season ends than by getting a little extra playing time in the bigs?

jasonn29tn14 · 07-20-2009, 03:15 PM

The tough question here is how many pitches can he typically throw with his low stamina rating. With his control problems you might see him struggle to make it 5 innings sometimes.

EKomrska15 · 07-20-2009, 03:18 PM

I have the exact opposite situation. My guy has a 6 in endurance with a potential (MR rating) of 10/10/9 as a SP (9/8/8) but he only has 2 good pitches and the third is rated as a 2.

I'm assuming I should put him in the 'pen just because he's so dominant out of there and not sure how he would fare with 2 pitches even though he has more than above average ratings as a SP.

nymets3000 · 07-20-2009, 03:19 PM

I don't think he's ready for a major league callup yet considering he has only thrown 13 innings in AAA. I'd probably give him the rest of the year in AAA to improve his control and call him up in September. Obviously if injuries occur or whatnot, bring him up, but if possible, keep in AAA for now. Long term, definite stud SP, if you are desperate right now, then I guess pitch him out of the pen the rest of the year, but get him in the rotation next year.

KurtBevacqua · 07-21-2009, 08:05 PM

I guess there's a lot of "it depends" stuff going on. I'm still figuring the game out and am not sure how much effect the number of pitches really has other than what is suggested by the manual. From a pure baseball perspective, if you badly need a starter then start him. If you badly need a closer, then do that. Me personally, with an average rotation and a decent to good closer I would make him a MR and throw him in the setup and middle innings roles to get him as many innings as possible. Bill James did the analysis and found the 7th and 8th innings were more important than the 9th anyway and I've always felt you should get your best pitcher into the toughest situation (which is how Bill came to his conclusion). I'd try and get this guy 120 innings as a reliever so he would have almost as much impact as a starter.

I have a guy in my online league almost exactly the same, although not as developed. I have him as a spot starter in the minors and a setup man and he's doing great.

thamolas · 07-22-2009, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KurtBevacqua

I have a guy in my online league almost exactly the same, although not as developed. I have him as a spot starter in the minors and a setup man and he's doing great.

When I call up a borderline guy and my rotation is fine, I usually put him down the food chain in middle relief and make him a spot starter. And if he needs more innings, I give him mop-up duty as well. If I need a setup guy or closer, I drop him into those roles, but still keep him as a spot starter and sometimes even mop-up, too. I have had guys learn new pitches this way, sometimes mid- or late-season.

jasonn29tn14 · 07-23-2009, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thamolas

When I call up a borderline guy and my rotation is fine, I usually put him down the food chain in middle relief and make him a spot starter. And if he needs more innings, I give him mop-up duty as well. If I need a setup guy or closer, I drop him into those roles, but still keep him as a spot starter and sometimes even mop-up, too. I have had guys learn new pitches this way, sometimes mid- or late-season.

You've had guys learning pitches in the majors(?) Or are you managing in the minors?

07-19-2009, 04:03 PM	#1
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	Pitching Dilemma; Starter Or Closer? So I have an interesting and difficult decision I need to make very soon. I've got a 23 year old pitcher at AAA who is rated 10-10-9 for potential on a 1-10 scale and 9-9-4 currently. At AA he 3.89 ERA with a 21/33 K/BB ration in 39 innings. At AAA so far he has a 1.89 ERA with 12-11 ration in 13 innings. His endurance is currently at 4 and his suggested role is starter. My decision is whether to use him as a closer or starter. I feel that I could mask the control issues. However, the thought of having one of the best starting pitchers is appealing. The fact that he is 23 years old with horrible control issues is the part that really scares me. What would you guys do?

07-19-2009, 04:49 PM	#4
Afino Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Buffalo, NY Posts: 3,828	Odds are they wouldn't even list him as a suggested starter if he had less than 3 pitches. I've actually had success with a 8/9/8 (out of 10) pitcher with 8 Stamina and only two pitches, despite his "suggested role" as an emergency starter. __________________ GUBA: Moscow Enforcers

07-19-2009, 05:57 PM	#7
Afino Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Buffalo, NY Posts: 3,828	I don't think "losing him" as a prospect is an issue. He's 23 and in his first part of a year at AAA. If he's 25 and still having the issues, then yes, there's a problem. 25 is the magic number. It's the cutoff for the Top Prospect lists and really is the realistic age where the final decision needs to be made. No need to worry yet. __________________ GUBA: Moscow Enforcers

07-19-2009, 07:33 PM	#9
kq76 Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 11,770	What's your minor league report say? If it says he's ready for the bigs then I wouldn't hesitate. If it says he's only probably or maybe ready then I'd hesitate. If it doesn't say anything about the bigs then I'd probably ply it safe and keep him in the minors until it says otherwise. I know lots of people don't like to trust what that report says, but I tell myself that I don't know how the game is programmed so it's probably best I at least trust what it says a little and with a big-time prospect I don't want to screw up I'll play it as safe as possible. At least they probably get more playing time in the minors. I had this dilemma just recently with a stud CF I really could have used in the playoffs and the run leading up to it, but his discipline was still pretty bad so I decided to play it safe and leave him down until it develops further, which will hopefully be the start of next season. EDIT: As for starter or closer, I'd try to make him into a starter if at all possible. Unless you already have a pretty good rotation, but could really do with a good closer. __________________ My OOTP Wishlist \| My FAQ List OOTP Wiki \| Your Recommended Team Nicknames, By City (A Crowdsourced Project) Last edited by kq76; 07-19-2009 at 08:08 PM.

07-21-2009, 08:05 PM	#18
KurtBevacqua Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,968	I guess there's a lot of "it depends" stuff going on. I'm still figuring the game out and am not sure how much effect the number of pitches really has other than what is suggested by the manual. From a pure baseball perspective, if you badly need a starter then start him. If you badly need a closer, then do that. Me personally, with an average rotation and a decent to good closer I would make him a MR and throw him in the setup and middle innings roles to get him as many innings as possible. Bill James did the analysis and found the 7th and 8th innings were more important than the 9th anyway and I've always felt you should get your best pitcher into the toughest situation (which is how Bill came to his conclusion). I'd try and get this guy 120 innings as a reliever so he would have almost as much impact as a starter. I have a guy in my online league almost exactly the same, although not as developed. I have him as a spot starter in the minors and a setup man and he's doing great. __________________ "The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C's interests, are entirely overlooked. I call C the Forgotten Man" - William Graham Sumner

07-19-2009, 05:55 PM	#5
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	I just shut the game down and I have to head to the store (this bee's nest is proving to be tougher than expected) so I will have to check a little later. My only concern, whether he has more than 2 pitches or not, is the fact that he is 23 and a control rating of only 4 with obvious control issues in the minors. I am worried that if I wait for that to develop I might lose him as a prospect since he is 23 and would be sitting in AAA for at least another year. Do I look to minimize the risk in a role that is much less valuable or go for gold.

07-19-2009, 07:25 PM	#8
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	Does his stuff change when you change him from a SP to a MR role and back? Does your league use the DH? If not, can he hit?

07-19-2009, 07:38 PM	#10
JLK Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 60	Nolan Ryan was a relief pitcher on the '69 Mets. Can't you start him out as a reliever and move him to a starting position later? I don't get a chance to play the game as much as I would like, but I thought that was one of the issues the new pitching model was suppose to fix.

07-20-2009, 01:10 PM	#12
jar2574 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 405	4 pitchs? Starter, if he's better than any of your other starters. Reliever otherwise.

07-20-2009, 02:00 PM	#13
trapper Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 114	The only thing that even makes it a question in my mind is the low stamina. But I would still use him as a starter and hope he could improve his stamina. If his stamina went down to 3 or less I would probably try to turn him into a closer.

07-20-2009, 03:15 PM	#15
jasonn29tn14 Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 320	The tough question here is how many pitches can he typically throw with his low stamina rating. With his control problems you might see him struggle to make it 5 innings sometimes.

07-20-2009, 03:18 PM	#16
EKomrska15 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,533	I have the exact opposite situation. My guy has a 6 in endurance with a potential (MR rating) of 10/10/9 as a SP (9/8/8) but he only has 2 good pitches and the third is rated as a 2. I'm assuming I should put him in the 'pen just because he's so dominant out of there and not sure how he would fare with 2 pitches even though he has more than above average ratings as a SP.

07-20-2009, 03:19 PM	#17
nymets3000 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 178	I don't think he's ready for a major league callup yet considering he has only thrown 13 innings in AAA. I'd probably give him the rest of the year in AAA to improve his control and call him up in September. Obviously if injuries occur or whatnot, bring him up, but if possible, keep in AAA for now. Long term, definite stud SP, if you are desperate right now, then I guess pitch him out of the pen the rest of the year, but get him in the rotation next year.