Feeder League Issues - Page 2

Wolfbane · 04-18-2008, 11:17 PM

I would have to agree with the previous reply. Players that have that kind of speed and can get on base at a decent percentage, even though the OBP is based solely on BA, are very useful. Once on base, their speed can enable them to steal bases and score runs. Also, since they strike out in half their plate appearance and are very fast, they will not be involved in many double plays.

RonCo · 04-18-2008, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Starshadow

I've got one of those types of guys starting in my outfield on one of my online teams. The team sucks so I just needed someone who could hit.

Player Report for #56 Eligius Hinz

According to his VORP, he isn't useless.

.394/.403/.461 is not .310/.330/.350

RonCo · 04-18-2008, 11:35 PM

Hinz also has a .502 BABIP. The highest BABIP ever recorded in major league history (in at least 350 PA) is .419. Either the league totals for this league are oddly skewed, or the BABIP rating internal mapping to hits is in error.

Or, I guess, the pitcher's skill sets are a little oddly distributed.

RonCo · 04-18-2008, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolfbane

I would have to agree with the previous reply. Players that have that kind of speed and can get on base at a decent percentage, even though the OBP is based solely on BA, are very useful. Once on base, their speed can enable them to steal bases and score runs. Also, since they strike out in half their plate appearance and are very fast, they will not be involved in many double plays.

In theory (and OOTP maybe) you're right, but in reality ... not so much...

Using the Lahman database, in history of the MLB there have been only four hitters who had > 350 PA, and had BAVG/OBP/SLG splits that were less than 20 points and 30 points apart (i.e. .250/.270/.300, for example).

1968 - Hal Lanier: .206/.216/.239
1993 - Jose Lind: .248/.263/.288
1964 - Bob Lillis: .268/.287/.313
1966 - Jesus Alou: .259/.278/.308

Note that none of these guys hit .300, and three of them are from the 60s--one of the lowest scoring periods of MLB. None stole more than 5 bases or were successful at more than a 60% rate (meaning they lost runs by attempting to steal).

If I increase the OBP/SLG delta to .040, I can add 5 more players -- none, again, hit close to .300. The closest was Duane Kuiper, who hit .283 in 1978 (and stole 9 bases in 13 attempts, barely break-even from a runs-created standpoint.

The 7/1/1 player with great speed and steals rating does not appear to exist in the MLB.

Syd Thrift · 04-19-2008, 04:41 AM

Hmm. Felix Fermin is just outside of your range and he did hit for a pretty decent average for a couple of years. Not .300 though (he did capture lightning in a bottle one year but that could be explained by a random fluctuation). Bill Buckner had a couple seasons early in his career where his OPS was only around 80 points higher than double his BA, but he did grow out of that as he got older.

I don't think you'd see more of this because:

a. BABIP is closely correlated with speed, and speed tends to only go down as a player gets older, and
b. IRL (and as you've partially pointed out already), nobody can maintain a .500 BABIP for more than 50 at-bats or even a .400 for more than a season. Actual ability in BABIP probably tops out somewhere nearer to .360 (as a point of reference, Ichiro's career BABIP is .358) with higher totals happening due to luck and/or weird league/park conditions. A guy with a .360 BABIP, no power, and who Ks at a rate of 150 times per 550 at-bats would have a batting average of around .255. That's a best-case scenario... and it produces Jose Lind.

Actually, upon further review the biggest problem to me looks like players with high BABIPs are able to produce unrealistic results.

BusterKing · 04-22-2008, 01:50 AM

Well it isn't difficult to see the problem.

Fill your minors with fictitious players and create a few feeder leagues. It is so obvious by looking at the new players generated that the ratings for most of them are wrong and not realistic with the real life MLB world.

Not fun for me, that's why I stick to real life created rosters.

Just amazes me that all this has gone unnoticed with the beta testing. How can one not see that?

Waiting 5 years to possibly see correct results isn't the answer, in the mean time your players just don't look like MLB players.

04-18-2008, 11:35 PM	#23
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,379	Hinz also has a .502 BABIP. The highest BABIP ever recorded in major league history (in at least 350 PA) is .419. Either the league totals for this league are oddly skewed, or the BABIP rating internal mapping to hits is in error. Or, I guess, the pitcher's skill sets are a little oddly distributed. Last edited by RonCo; 04-19-2008 at 12:14 AM.

04-18-2008, 11:17 PM	#21
Wolfbane Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 30	I would have to agree with the previous reply. Players that have that kind of speed and can get on base at a decent percentage, even though the OBP is based solely on BA, are very useful. Once on base, their speed can enable them to steal bases and score runs. Also, since they strike out in half their plate appearance and are very fast, they will not be involved in many double plays.

04-22-2008, 01:50 AM	#26
BusterKing Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 2,422	Well it isn't difficult to see the problem. Fill your minors with fictitious players and create a few feeder leagues. It is so obvious by looking at the new players generated that the ratings for most of them are wrong and not realistic with the real life MLB world. Not fun for me, that's why I stick to real life created rosters. Just amazes me that all this has gone unnoticed with the beta testing. How can one not see that? Waiting 5 years to possibly see correct results isn't the answer, in the mean time your players just don't look like MLB players.